Author Topic: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker  (Read 40674 times)

Offline Ludus

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #40 on: 07/17/2014 04:53 PM »

No no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now.  ;)
(But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)

I would take that in a modified form, will Atlas or Delta still be around (it doesn't matter what is  the name of the company that operates them)

That may be a simpler form of the same bet. If Atlas or Delta are still around in 10 years, rapid reusability has failed in some pretty fundamental way. No need to pick an arbitrary launch rate.

Offline majormajor42

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #41 on: 07/17/2014 05:40 PM »
I predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. 

My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong.  If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt.  First 15 nay-sayers only.  Must reply by Dec 2012.

I will take you up on that. I worked for a little while on Shuttle SRB, and I've seen what that recovery process looks like first hand. Namely, it is brutal. SpaceX is wanting to recover from a higher, faster starting point, and with a much weaker structure (SRBs were thick, HSLA steel). I have no doubt that it can be done, but I think it will take them longer to recover. I will add the condition that the first stage much be recovered largely intact by January 2016. Is that an acceptable condition?

Reviving this thread, given recent events. Have to say that I'm getting nervous about my end of this bet these days. You're still on here, right, go4mars? I may owe you a shirt in the near future.
;D Still here.

I think it is interesting that in 2011, even the idea of recovering a first stage by 2016 seemed less likely. And now, in 2014, you can say if there was a big deserted island where the last two Falcon's soft landed, they would have done it by now. The recovered video is decent evidence of that. So, will they be able to connect the dots, succeed at boost back and be allowed anywhere near the East Coast? If so, it can/will be done. It is in the hands of the FAA I suppose at this point. Check that...it is still in SpaceX's court to demonstrate to themselves that they have confidence to not kill anybody. Do they? Then they can ask permission and go down some certification punchlist to be allowed to do it. Next year I suppose if what I'm reading about the remaining flights this year not being candidates for recovery.

I wonder if in 2011, Jim thought they would be this far along in the area of recovering and soft landing without parachutes? It is possible that his criticism all along has been along the lines of what it is now, the turn around and processing of rockets for launch (reusability or not).

...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #42 on: 07/17/2014 06:55 PM »


Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.  I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.

I bet you do!   8)

Do what?

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #43 on: 07/17/2014 07:56 PM »

Lar. Cleaned it up. Hopefully no language, all math. I go with FH means 3 cores. Any ONE core delay can delay two additional. How does this look? For all years prior to 2025:
X * 1 core* (F9 + derivatives + variants) + Y * 1 core* (F9R + derivatives + variants) + Z * 3 core * (FH + derivatives + variants) < 24 / year.

Done. If at any time that formula exceeds 24, you owe me a bottle of 15 year or older single malt, you can pick the particular malt and vintage. If for all years prior to 2025 it never does, I owe you the same,  except that I can pick[1]

1 - this is to prevent the selection of some exceedingly pricey ones that I just can't afford.. for example this one
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-16442.aspx is 350 pounds! Too rich for me.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline dcporter

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #44 on: 07/17/2014 08:42 PM »
Lar and Hernault, I added that to the first post for easy reference. Gif-shake on it and I'll link that too.

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #45 on: 07/17/2014 08:54 PM »
I'm not sure who needs to shake but here's my end...  (made one in MLCad using LDRAW models... I'm the guy in blue)
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 09:18 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline strangequark

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #46 on: 07/17/2014 08:56 PM »
Probably even higher in Utah.  While the elderly and prisoners skew that statistic, I'm not sure I qualify as a gambler either.  My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome.  I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose.  If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt.  Is that really gambling?

Yeah, kind of how I felt about our bet. Which I'm becoming increasingly nervous about. They were still talking about water recovery back then.
Don't flippantly discount the old rules of this industry. Behind each one lies a painful lesson learned from broken, twisted hardware. Learn those lessons, and respect the knowledge gained from them. Only then, see if you can write new rules that will meet those challenges.

Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #47 on: 07/17/2014 09:15 PM »
Good

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #48 on: 07/18/2014 10:15 AM »


Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.  I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.

I bet you do!   8)

Do what?

He probably means gambling. It's extremely difficult to go through life without gambling on future outcomes.

Offline dcporter

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #49 on: 07/18/2014 05:58 PM »


Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.  I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.

I bet you do!   8)

Do what?

He probably means gambling. It's extremely difficult to go through life without gambling on future outcomes.

My read was that he was trying to sucker Lee Jay into a bet.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/kQFKtI6gn9Y

Offline meekGee

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #50 on: 07/18/2014 06:27 PM »
The only relevant metric is number of launches.  We already know that core production is not the limiting factor, and once you factor in reusability, it's only core turn-around that matters, and that can be done in parallel.

What matter is the overall turn-around time, and the need for this number of launches.

This means recycling the first stage cores (assuming FH), and attaching a (previously recycled) second stage and payload.

Can this be done in a week, and will there be enough payloads.

Technically - I am sure they can turn around the rocket in a day.  And it doesn't really matter, since they will have multiple pads and multiple vehicles.

From the glimpses we got about SpaceX's plans for F9/H  (most in L2), then yes, they'll need that many launches by 2024.

So it boils down to how their master schedule will unfold.  SpaceX has traditionally been late delivering on its near-term goals, but the goals, when they are set, are much in advance of what most people expect.

Overall, they're 20 minutes late for being there an hour early, so to speak.

So of all the bet varieties above, I'd take the bet that says they'll fly weekly by 2024. Easily.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Space OurSoul

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #51 on: 07/18/2014 09:20 PM »
Just to stir the pot, I'll add some further suggestions for bets:

-Will a SpaceX second stage soft-land anywhere (including ocean) before a Reaction Engines SABRE produces thrust in flight?
-Will the MCT BFR launcher fly before Skylon's first production vehicle? Before Skylon's first test article?
-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?
-Will a SpaceX engine power an Atlas V launch before 2020? Before 2030?

I'm not taking a stand on these myself. I'm going to make popcorn and watch the arguments :-)
A complete OurSoul

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #52 on: 07/18/2014 09:38 PM »
-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?

I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)

Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers :)

EDIT: I meant manned but quoted sloppily. ... mheney, clearly a fellow FSM adherent, swooped in and picked off an easy win. Anyone else this is manned vs manned. (not to be confused with mano a mano)
« Last Edit: 07/18/2014 10:30 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline mheney

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #53 on: 07/18/2014 09:45 PM »
-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?

I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)

Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers :)

You lose that side bet - I'll take the Orion side of that.  EFT-1, nominally in December,  leaves LEO by that definition.

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #54 on: 07/18/2014 10:15 PM »
-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?

I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)

Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers :)


You lose that side bet - I'll take the Orion side of that.  EFT-1, nominally in December,  leaves LEO by that definition.
Whoops! I was thinking manned but forgot to say that.. any one else will have to take manned or no bet. You got yourself some easy money there I think.

Shake attached, and I'm still the blue classic spaceman.. I think most folk know what I think of SLS/Orion so... you get to be Darth :)
« Last Edit: 07/18/2014 10:28 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline mheney

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #55 on: 07/18/2014 10:59 PM »
-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?

I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)

Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers :)

You lose that side bet - I'll take the Orion side of that.  EFT-1, nominally in December,  leaves LEO by that definition.
Whoops! I was thinking manned but forgot to say that.. any one else will have to take manned or no bet. You got yourself some easy money there I think.

Nah - I have no interest in "gotchas".   We can stipulate "manned mission beyond LEO" - I still think Orion will get there first.  (Although with far less confidence than I had with EFT--1 ;)

FWIW, my unmanned scenario  had
    (1) EFT-1 delayed  (delayed?  I'm SHOCKED ....)
    (2) SpaceX flying a used Dragon on a heatshield test mission (similar to EFT-1), possibly on a recovered first stage.  They're going to have to test a Mars return reentry sometime; and they may have "spare" hardware sitting around for a mission like this.

I can see someone (presumably a bigger fanboi than me) taking the Dragon side of that. 

But if manned is what you intended, then manned is what we'll do.



Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #56 on: 07/18/2014 11:23 PM »
But if manned is what you intended, then manned is what we'll do.

You sir, are a gentleman and a scholar. May you continue to be Touched by His Noodly Appendage.  Done.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline su27k

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #57 on: 07/20/2014 03:43 AM »

No no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now.  ;)
(But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)

I would take that in a modified form, will Atlas or Delta still be around (it doesn't matter what is  the name of the company that operates them)

That may be a simpler form of the same bet. If Atlas or Delta are still around in 10 years, rapid reusability has failed in some pretty fundamental way. No need to pick an arbitrary launch rate.

Not necessarily. I suspect Jim is counting on there're enough national security payload specifically designed for Atlas and Delta to keep them going even if reusability has made them obsolete for the rest of the market.

Offline Burninate

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #58 on: 07/20/2014 09:25 PM »
Stirring the pot - Will the next human being to land on the moon do so before the 50th anniversary of the first man on the moon, July 21 2019?  Before the 50th anniversary of the *last* man on the moon, December 7, 2022?

Will a private enterprise beat the Chinese space agency to the Moon?
« Last Edit: 07/20/2014 10:10 PM by Burninate »

Offline dcporter

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #59 on: 07/21/2014 01:17 AM »
so did these bets get added?

Yes indeed. @goformars and strangequark, I'm happy to add your teeshirt bet too if you want to post the details.

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