Author Topic: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success  (Read 35820 times)

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #20 on: 07/17/2014 01:49 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #21 on: 07/17/2014 01:53 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m
Sounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. :)
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #22 on: 07/17/2014 01:56 AM »
I'm sure in the post-apocalyptic future of 2024, alcohol is a super valuable currency for all things and this bet will make someone rich (relatively)
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Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #23 on: 07/17/2014 02:10 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m
Sounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. :)

I've also never figured out why people bet (or offer to repay debts with) alcohol.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #24 on: 07/17/2014 02:27 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m

That's obviously a lot easier.

I can't tell you how many hairs will fall off my head tomorrow, but I have a fair idea where things will stand in 10 years.

All these current delays are completely irrelevant in the 10 year view.
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Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #25 on: 07/17/2014 02:31 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m
Sounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. :)

I've also never figured out why people bet (or offer to repay debts with) alcohol.

Because it's fun. And maybe perceived as manly? I dunno... (although it is a sausage fest in here)

I'll bet you LEGO instead if you like :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #26 on: 07/17/2014 02:32 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m
Sounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. :)

I've also never figured out why people bet (or offer to repay debts with) alcohol.

Or why they fly cheese in cargo spacecraft.
I know they don't need it, but Crossfeed would be super cool.

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #27 on: 07/17/2014 02:34 AM »
SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m
Sounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. :)

I've also never figured out why people bet (or offer to repay debts with) alcohol.

Because it's fun. And maybe perceived as manly? I dunno... (although it is a sausage fest in here)

I'll bet you LEGO instead if you like :)

Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.  I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #28 on: 07/17/2014 02:35 AM »
It settles arguments without endless debate. :)
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Offline go4mars

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #29 on: 07/17/2014 02:42 AM »
Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.
Probably even higher in Utah.  While the elderly and prisoners skew that statistic, I'm not sure I qualify as a gambler either.  My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome.  I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose.  If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt.  Is that really gambling?
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Online dcporter

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #30 on: 07/17/2014 02:59 AM »
Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.
Probably even higher in Utah.  While the elderly and prisoners skew that statistic, I'm not sure I qualify as a gambler either.  My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome.  I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose.  If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt.  Is that really gambling?

:) Similar. I've learned enough from Jim round these parts to feel good about sending him a bottle of the happy-juice if things don't go my way.

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #31 on: 07/17/2014 03:06 AM »
My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome.  I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose.  If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt.  Is that really gambling?
No, it's more like taking candy from a baby...  (and Lee Jay, no offense intended)

:) Similar. I've learned enough from Jim round these parts to feel good about sending him a bottle of the happy-juice if things don't go my way.

I suspect many of us would feel that way.
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 03:09 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online llanitedave

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #32 on: 07/17/2014 03:26 AM »


Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.  I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.

I bet you do!   8)
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Offline guidanceisgo

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #33 on: 07/17/2014 03:48 AM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

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Atlas II  1991-2004
Delta IV 2003 - 202?
Atlas V  2002 - 202?

Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things.  They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue stream
Good point ,  maybe the bet should be, does SpaceX exist in 10 years. 

Offline mme

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #34 on: 07/17/2014 04:18 AM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

Titan IV 1989-2005
Delta II 1989-2015
Atlas II  1991-2004
Delta IV 2003 - 202?
Atlas V  2002 - 202?

Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things.  They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue stream
Good point ,  maybe the bet should be, does SpaceX exist in 10 years.
Pick your poison because that sounds like free potato vodka to me. What's the old expression, "talk is cheap, vodka is delicious?" Something like that...

Edit: Pesky colloquial contractions look possessive.
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 04:28 AM by mme »
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Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #35 on: 07/17/2014 07:21 AM »

Lar. Cleaned it up. Hopefully no language, all math. I go with FH means 3 cores. Any ONE core delay can delay two additional. How does this look? For all years prior to 2025:
X * 1 core* (F9 + derivatives + variants) + Y * 1 core* (F9R + derivatives + variants) + Z * 3 core * (FH + derivatives + variants) < 24 / year.

Offline woods170

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #36 on: 07/17/2014 08:21 AM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

Titan IV 1989-2005
Delta II 1989-2015
Atlas II  1991-2004
Delta IV 2003 - 202?
Atlas V  2002 - 202?

Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things.  They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue stream
Good point ,  maybe the bet should be, does SpaceX exist in 10 years. 
No no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now.  ;)
(But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 11:06 AM by woods170 »

Offline pippin

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #37 on: 07/17/2014 11:20 AM »

Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.  I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.

But isn't it irrelevant in which currency others want to settle the bet anyway if you don't bet at all?
Or did I misunderstand something?

One apparent reason for the alcohol, btw, is that a lot of bets are being made after drinking quite a bit of the stuff so it's kind of consistent.
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 11:21 AM by pippin »

Offline majormajor42

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #38 on: 07/17/2014 03:42 PM »
I proposed a bet a while back in the Master Prediction Thread:

Manned Space Flight itself doesn't need to be saved. It should be thriving soon:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/04/before-this-decade-is-out-there-will-be.html
I'll add that I'm willing to bet that before this decade is out, we will have doubled the total number of people that have gone to space compared to the first five decades (about 500). And then perhaps at least another 1000 in the 2020's and so on... (powers of 2?).

I think a significant growth in space access, due mostly to lower costs, will accomplish most of the things that Harman says are needed to resolve in the first two paragraphs such as helping the economy and so on.

But to add to what Harman is saying, I would also like to see ISRU somewhere on the list of billets as being something that should be pursued and demonstrated before this decade is out. Perhaps "Water is life and while we can recycle it, we are still bonded to Earth as its source. But it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their spacecraft."
Major,

The article you quote is kool-aid.  First of all it says "should be" then it says ending shuttle is "not relevant".  That couldn't be more wrong.  While the loss of much experience is an entirely separate subject, the fact that ISS is placed in jeopardy because of getting rid of shuttle before anything is operational and "commercial success" is totally hinged to a vibrant ISS is completely ignored. 

As to the reason for this thread, I have never heard of their coalition or them.  I won't be holding my breath.

So is it a bet? 500 new people above the Kármán Line in this decade. Winner is the one that buys the drink, a can of Kool-Aid, for the loser to drink.

reposting this. not necessarily directed to one individual. Anyone can take me up on it. The 2010s will include 500 people getting into space. Obviously I'm expecting good things in the next few years. Since Alan Shepard is considered our first Astronaut I'm using the Kármán Line so sub-orbital above 62mi will be included. Since I didn't count multiple trips in my estimate of 500 people in the first 5 decades of HSF, multiples trips only count as one individual during this decade. This is about increasing access to space. It does less for humanity if the same people keep returning over and over. The clock started on Jan 1st 2010 and ends Dec 31st 2019.

I am less confident, at this point, of my other prediction of some sort of ISRU being done this decade, like my signature states. It looks like the GLXP contestants are the only ones pursing something like that, so I'm not sure I would want to wager ISRU by 2020 yet.

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_astronauts_by_first_flight 510 individuals flew into space before 1/1/2010. 28 new people have flown up since then. That's a pace of 6 new people per year.

I'm also curious of the alternative bet...number of human trips into space. How many total before 2010, counting Alan Shepard twice for example, and how many this decade. The Kelly brothers, for example have some before and some after 2010. And going forward, the sub orbital providers, if they get rolling, are likely to have pilots that make multiple trips.  Anyway, besides slowly going through that wiki page list of humans that have made the trip, that lists their first flight only, I'll have to tally up their pre and post 2010 multiple flights one by one. Maybe someone knows of an alternative list out there that might help me?

Not sure if OV-106 (wherever he is) is still interested in this. I would hold up my end certainly. Question is do I still feel confident that we could get about 80 new people per year up over the Karman line before 2020? Beyond the roughly 6 per year already scheduled to go to ISS? No amount of ccdev optimism can make a difference here and Bigelow won't help make a significant difference either. Even a couple commercial capsule flights to a private station with a dozen people by 2020 would be great. No, it really all pins on VG and XCOR. I have no idea what even their most optimistic schedules would be at this point. Still hoping though.


Edit:  Oh, just to stay on topic to bets pertaining to SpaceX only, that Master Prediction thread has a couple.
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 03:45 PM by majormajor42 »
...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Offline Jim

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #39 on: 07/17/2014 03:53 PM »

No no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now.  ;)
(But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)

I would take that in a modified form, will Atlas or Delta still be around (it doesn't matter what is  the name of the company that operates them)

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