SpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?m
Quote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 01:49 AMSpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?mSounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money.
Quote from: Lar on 07/17/2014 01:53 AMQuote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 01:49 AMSpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?mSounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. I've also never figured out why people bet (or offer to repay debts with) alcohol.
Quote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 02:10 AMQuote from: Lar on 07/17/2014 01:53 AMQuote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 01:49 AMSpaceX can't predict their launch tempo 1 hour in advance and you're predicting it 10 years in advance?mSounds like you should be putting some beer on the line then, easy money. I've also never figured out why people bet (or offer to repay debts with) alcohol.Because it's fun. And maybe perceived as manly? I dunno... (although it is a sausage fest in here)I'll bet you LEGO instead if you like
Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.
Quote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 02:34 AMAround 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all.Probably even higher in Utah. While the elderly and prisoners skew that statistic, I'm not sure I qualify as a gambler either. My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome. I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose. If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt. Is that really gambling?
My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome. I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose. If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt. Is that really gambling?
Similar. I've learned enough from Jim round these parts to feel good about sending him a bottle of the happy-juice if things don't go my way.
Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all. I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.
Quote from: kirghizstan on 07/16/2014 07:05 PMbad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years. they are moving on to bigger better things. you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers nowTitan IV 1989-2005Delta II 1989-2015Atlas II 1991-2004Delta IV 2003 - 202?Atlas V 2002 - 202?Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things. They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue stream
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years. they are moving on to bigger better things. you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now
Quote from: Jim on 07/16/2014 08:20 PMQuote from: kirghizstan on 07/16/2014 07:05 PMbad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years. they are moving on to bigger better things. you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers nowTitan IV 1989-2005Delta II 1989-2015Atlas II 1991-2004Delta IV 2003 - 202?Atlas V 2002 - 202?Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things. They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue streamGood point , maybe the bet should be, does SpaceX exist in 10 years.
Quote from: majormajor42 on 05/25/2011 01:15 AMManned Space Flight itself doesn't need to be saved. It should be thriving soon:http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/04/before-this-decade-is-out-there-will-be.htmlI'll add that I'm willing to bet that before this decade is out, we will have doubled the total number of people that have gone to space compared to the first five decades (about 500). And then perhaps at least another 1000 in the 2020's and so on... (powers of 2?).I think a significant growth in space access, due mostly to lower costs, will accomplish most of the things that Harman says are needed to resolve in the first two paragraphs such as helping the economy and so on.But to add to what Harman is saying, I would also like to see ISRU somewhere on the list of billets as being something that should be pursued and demonstrated before this decade is out. Perhaps "Water is life and while we can recycle it, we are still bonded to Earth as its source. But it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their spacecraft."Quote from: majormajor42 on 05/25/2011 02:02 AMQuote from: OV-106 on 05/25/2011 01:33 AMMajor,The article you quote is kool-aid. First of all it says "should be" then it says ending shuttle is "not relevant". That couldn't be more wrong. While the loss of much experience is an entirely separate subject, the fact that ISS is placed in jeopardy because of getting rid of shuttle before anything is operational and "commercial success" is totally hinged to a vibrant ISS is completely ignored. As to the reason for this thread, I have never heard of their coalition or them. I won't be holding my breath.So is it a bet? 500 new people above the Kármán Line in this decade. Winner is the one that buys the drink, a can of Kool-Aid, for the loser to drink.reposting this. not necessarily directed to one individual. Anyone can take me up on it. The 2010s will include 500 people getting into space. Obviously I'm expecting good things in the next few years. Since Alan Shepard is considered our first Astronaut I'm using the Kármán Line so sub-orbital above 62mi will be included. Since I didn't count multiple trips in my estimate of 500 people in the first 5 decades of HSF, multiples trips only count as one individual during this decade. This is about increasing access to space. It does less for humanity if the same people keep returning over and over. The clock started on Jan 1st 2010 and ends Dec 31st 2019.I am less confident, at this point, of my other prediction of some sort of ISRU being done this decade, like my signature states. It looks like the GLXP contestants are the only ones pursing something like that, so I'm not sure I would want to wager ISRU by 2020 yet.
Manned Space Flight itself doesn't need to be saved. It should be thriving soon:http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/04/before-this-decade-is-out-there-will-be.htmlI'll add that I'm willing to bet that before this decade is out, we will have doubled the total number of people that have gone to space compared to the first five decades (about 500). And then perhaps at least another 1000 in the 2020's and so on... (powers of 2?).I think a significant growth in space access, due mostly to lower costs, will accomplish most of the things that Harman says are needed to resolve in the first two paragraphs such as helping the economy and so on.But to add to what Harman is saying, I would also like to see ISRU somewhere on the list of billets as being something that should be pursued and demonstrated before this decade is out. Perhaps "Water is life and while we can recycle it, we are still bonded to Earth as its source. But it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their spacecraft."
Quote from: OV-106 on 05/25/2011 01:33 AMMajor,The article you quote is kool-aid. First of all it says "should be" then it says ending shuttle is "not relevant". That couldn't be more wrong. While the loss of much experience is an entirely separate subject, the fact that ISS is placed in jeopardy because of getting rid of shuttle before anything is operational and "commercial success" is totally hinged to a vibrant ISS is completely ignored. As to the reason for this thread, I have never heard of their coalition or them. I won't be holding my breath.So is it a bet? 500 new people above the Kármán Line in this decade. Winner is the one that buys the drink, a can of Kool-Aid, for the loser to drink.
Major,The article you quote is kool-aid. First of all it says "should be" then it says ending shuttle is "not relevant". That couldn't be more wrong. While the loss of much experience is an entirely separate subject, the fact that ISS is placed in jeopardy because of getting rid of shuttle before anything is operational and "commercial success" is totally hinged to a vibrant ISS is completely ignored. As to the reason for this thread, I have never heard of their coalition or them. I won't be holding my breath.
No no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now. (But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)
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