Author Topic: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker  (Read 43458 times)

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #100 on: 07/17/2017 04:53 PM »
Run separate methane lines. Two separate umbilicals, both feeding off the same LOX line and of RP-1 or methane for the two types of stage. Have two different arms, one of which engages or have an arm for the methane stage with possible adapters for the RP-1 stage.

A methane first stage would need a complete different TEL. But swapping the TEL out is not that hard with two cranes.

Offline Jim

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #101 on: 07/17/2017 05:09 PM »
No need. Just tee off the plumbing that's currently handling the RP-1. Then you just activate whichever branch you need at the time, RP-1 or methane.

They can't share the same piping.  One is room temp and the other is cryogenic.  Also, methane would freeze any residual RP-1.

Online Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #102 on: 07/17/2017 05:50 PM »
First time I've read this amusing thread. I would like to create a bet myself. But first conditions. I bet on my end a dinner & drink(s) out to a bar/restaurant of your choice where we go together and I pay $50 of your tab. You see I want to pay my bet in person and if I loose I get to spend an evening talking with a fellow space enthusiast. Also assuming there are more than 3 takers that the bet is limited to 3 and I get to choose who I take the bets up with. Payment will not be immediate as I will have to schedule a vacation to your area. If I win I will still go to that restaurant with you only you pay up to $50 for my bill.

On to the bet. I believe SpaceX will build and fly at least one Raptor powered second stage on a Falcon Heavy before Jan 1, 2020. I expect lots of takers, I know this is definitely a long shot.

You should clarify whether any Raptor-powered orbital vehicle mounted on top of the Falcon's first stage counts.

Just to make sure that if that hypothetical vehicle is not a classical "second stage" but rather an integrated vehicle, the outcome of the bet is unambiguous.

I hadn't thought of that. If you are talking about an integrated second stage and orbital vehicle then yes it would count. I've been told (mostly by Jim) that supplying methane for second stage at 39A is not possible. Trying to get clarification on why has no response, I assume it has to do with TEL possibly no room for extra pipes. I look at the TEL and I think, my god this is huge! and can't imagine insufficient space.

If a FH launched with a conventional RP-1 second stage but the payload was something methalox powered and Raptor engined, would that count as a win ( built and flew at least one Raptor second stage) or a loss (it technically isn't a second stage, unlike an integrated vehicle) under the revised terms of this bet? If it's a loss, I'd take on one of these 3 bets, as I don't see SpaceX doing a real Raptor S2 for F9 or FH, ever.  If it's a win, pass, as I could see them doing this for test purposes.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online envy887

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #103 on: 07/17/2017 06:23 PM »
Run separate methane lines. Two separate umbilicals, both feeding off the same LOX line and of RP-1 or methane for the two types of stage. Have two different arms, one of which engages or have an arm for the methane stage with possible adapters for the RP-1 stage.

A methane first stage would need a complete different TEL. But swapping the TEL out is not that hard with two cranes.

Swapping the TEL out might be easier than using adapters, running more pluming, adding arms, etc to the exiting TEL. Not to mention that they could build a second TEL without interfering with the current launch cadence to modify the existing one.

That could be the simplest way to add methane vehicle capability to 39A.

Offline dcporter

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #104 on: 08/19/2017 02:52 AM »
Robotbeat and Peter.Colin have (a heavily local) one regarding pyrotechnics on FH's first launch:

How likely is the chance of failure if you make this statement?
I would bet money it fails

www.orlandosentinel.com/news/space/os-bz-ap-spacex-falcon-heavy-fail-risk-20170719-story.html
Okay, I'll take that bet. Easy peasy. $10, in the form of a beverage of the winner's choice, must be redeemed in person.

Good! if the first Falcon Heavy doesn't explode (when the engines are burning) you get a $10 beverage at my place (Belgium)  :) and vice versa.




Robotbeat and I spun one up on Twitter at 6-to-12 odds that SpaceX will shut down F9 booster production by EOY 2018. (Not counting 2nd stages obviously, and not counting FH cores.)

Start: https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/898357597945954304
Odds: https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/898398397337526272
Caveat: https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/898398638958723072
Handshake: https://twitter.com/davecporter/status/898399581574012928

Bump! Notice served of two new bets. --^

Offline Roy_H

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #105 on: 08/20/2017 02:50 PM »
First time I've read this amusing thread. I would like to create a bet myself. But first conditions. I bet on my end a dinner & drink(s) out to a bar/restaurant of your choice where we go together and I pay $50 of your tab. You see I want to pay my bet in person and if I loose I get to spend an evening talking with a fellow space enthusiast. Also assuming there are more than 3 takers that the bet is limited to 3 and I get to choose who I take the bets up with. Payment will not be immediate as I will have to schedule a vacation to your area. If I win I will still go to that restaurant with you only you pay up to $50 for my bill.

On to the bet. I believe SpaceX will build and fly at least one Raptor powered second stage on a Falcon Heavy before Jan 1, 2020. I expect lots of takers, I know this is definitely a long shot.

You should clarify whether any Raptor-powered orbital vehicle mounted on top of the Falcon's first stage counts.

Just to make sure that if that hypothetical vehicle is not a classical "second stage" but rather an integrated vehicle, the outcome of the bet is unambiguous.

I hadn't thought of that. If you are talking about an integrated second stage and orbital vehicle then yes it would count. I've been told (mostly by Jim) that supplying methane for second stage at 39A is not possible. Trying to get clarification on why has no response, I assume it has to do with TEL possibly no room for extra pipes. I look at the TEL and I think, my god this is huge! and can't imagine insufficient space.

If a FH launched with a conventional RP-1 second stage but the payload was something methalox powered and Raptor engined, would that count as a win ( built and flew at least one Raptor second stage) or a loss (it technically isn't a second stage, unlike an integrated vehicle) under the revised terms of this bet? If it's a loss, I'd take on one of these 3 bets, as I don't see SpaceX doing a real Raptor S2 for F9 or FH, ever.  If it's a win, pass, as I could see them doing this for test purposes.

Well, it seems I have at least one taker. Yes I mean a true methalox fueled Raptor upper stage, not just a payload with a raptor test engine.
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk

Offline dcporter

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #106 on: 08/21/2017 02:14 AM »
Just to clarify, a combined second stage and payload which makes it to orbit doesn't count?

Offline Roy_H

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #107 on: 08/21/2017 02:07 PM »
Just to clarify, a combined second stage and payload which makes it to orbit doesn't count?

I don't know how I can make this clearer. Bottom three cores (F9 derivatives) are kerosene/lox fueled Merlin engines. Stage above (any possible configuration) methane/lox Raptor engine. Or maybe I should say upper stage NOT Merlin powered?
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk

Offline dcporter

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #108 on: 08/22/2017 06:41 PM »
I don't know how I can make this clearer.

- I misread Lar's aside to read "it technically isn't a second stage, like an integrated vehicle isn't", and thought there was ambiguity left in your answer to his question.
- This is a rocket forum beer bet thread. I can't picture a lower-stakes place for you to get spiky.

Added, with mild pique.

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #109 on: 08/22/2017 06:54 PM »
Let's all chill, k? I'm excited I have a bet going...
« Last Edit: 08/22/2017 06:56 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #110 on: 08/22/2017 07:43 PM »
Beer bets:

1) FH flies in December and is successful.
2) FH Demo payload has some portion of cheese in it.
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

Offline Hauerg

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #111 on: 08/22/2017 07:56 PM »
Just to clarify, a combined second stage and payload which makes it to orbit doesn't count?

I don't know how I can make this clearer. Bottom three cores (F9 derivatives) are kerosene/lox fueled Merlin engines. Stage above (any possible configuration) methane/lox Raptor engine. Or maybe I should say upper stage NOT Merlin powered?
If Elon reads this he might go through his basement. There must be a few Kestrels left.....

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #112 on: 08/22/2017 09:17 PM »
Kestrel will never fly again ... I'm willing to bet on that one :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline david1971

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #113 on: 08/22/2017 09:44 PM »
Kestrel will never fly again ... I'm willing to bet on that one :)

How does that bet work?  If it flies, you buy me beer, and as long as it doesn't, I remind you that never means a very long time?

Online Lar

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Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #114 on: 08/22/2017 10:04 PM »
Kestrel will never fly again ... I'm willing to bet on that one :)

How does that bet work?  If it flies, you buy me beer, and as long as it doesn't, I remind you that never means a very long time?

Haha, good point. Maybe 10 years then...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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