Author Topic: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success  (Read 35818 times)

Online dcporter

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Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« on: 07/16/2014 06:27 PM »
Public notice served, and a place to tally SpaceX's long-term progress towards reusability and market growth.

It all started here:

That is nonsense. 
And get ready to be disappointed.  The dead end method is likely the only viable method.   If the GSE can't support routine and rapid launches, don't expect the reused flight hardware to be any different.

I feel like there's a friendly case-of-beer-in-ten-years bet that I want to make here.

Jim always serves up a nice counterpoint to the rampant optimism around these boards, but I like to make predictions stick. So I've bet him a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions an average of 4 per month on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.

If they don't execute that, then they've likely fallen well short of Elon's goals and our hopes. Jim, public shake? (Edit: Shook.)

I'll bump this thread every year until 2024 and then we'll tally that year and see. So, everybody go join L2 so Chris can keep the site running for the next decade!




Lar and Hernalt have agreed to one of their own:


Lar. Cleaned it up. Hopefully no language, all math. I go with FH means 3 cores. Any ONE core delay can delay two additional. How does this look? For all years prior to 2025:
X * 1 core* (F9 + derivatives + variants) + Y * 1 core* (F9R + derivatives + variants) + Z * 3 core * (FH + derivatives + variants) < 24 / year.

Done. If at any time that formula exceeds 24, you owe me a bottle of 15 year or older single malt, you can pick the particular malt and vintage. If for all years prior to 2025 it never does, I owe you the same,  except that I can pick[1]

1 - this is to prevent the selection of some exceedingly pricey ones that I just can't afford.. for example this one
http://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-16442.aspx is 350 pounds! Too rich for me.

Shaken upon.



Lar has bet that Dragon will leave LEO with people in it before Orion does so. mheney has accepted that bet in a most gentlemanly manner. The handshake was laden with symbolism. (Lar is willing to take that bet from four other people, by the way, if there are any takers.)
« Last Edit: 07/21/2014 01:15 AM by dcporter »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #1 on: 07/16/2014 06:49 PM »
Are you betting on just the first stage or both stages and Dragon?

Reusing boosters seems reasonable, not sure the second stage will get there.

10 years is a long time, and over that length of time you are betting more that there is a market large enough for 48 missions than you are on whether SpaceX can reuse a first stage.
I know they don't need it, but Crossfeed would be super cool.

Offline Jim

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #2 on: 07/16/2014 06:49 PM »

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #3 on: 07/16/2014 06:51 PM »


That looks like a shake to me!

Which one are you, Jim? That fella on the right looks like the sort of gator I'd rather not meet at night!
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline PahTo

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #4 on: 07/16/2014 06:53 PM »

LOL!  Lessee--who's Godzilla in this pic/bet?
:)

Offline kirghizstan

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #5 on: 07/16/2014 07:05 PM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #6 on: 07/16/2014 07:27 PM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

I'm definitely willing to bet that F9R or a derivation/variant (that is, current core size, not a BFR core, Kerolox fueled using a Merlin 1D or descendant, not Raptor) is still flying missions 10 years from now... maybe not as many as 24 a year, but some.  Are you willing to take the other side of that, that is, no missions at all? PM me and we can work out bet details and I'll modify this post to reflect them.

Actually I am willing to take that bet with anyone, not just kirghizstan, for a case of beer or a bottle of single malt or vodka or bourbon, winners choice. Up to 5 takers... your side of the bet is that nothing F9 based is flying in 2024... you win if SpaceX goes out of business, or if they move on completely.
« Last Edit: 07/16/2014 08:53 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online dror

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #7 on: 07/16/2014 07:42 PM »
Are you betting on just the first stage or both stages and Dragon?

Reusing boosters seems reasonable, not sure the second stage will get there.

And what about Falcon Heavy?
Will it count as one (one mission), two ( boosters) or as three (cores)?
"If we crave some cosmic purpose, then let us find ourselves a worthy goal. "
Carl Sagan, Pale Blue Dot

Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #8 on: 07/16/2014 07:51 PM »
{I'll bet a single malt that a F9, or its derivation/variant, or F9R first stage, or its derivation/variant, will not have a manifest or flight rate of 24 in the year 2024, nor will it have achieved or exceeded 24 in the years prior to 2024. FH = 3* F9 or 3*F9R. I pay first taker in the first year that count (F9 + F9R + FH/3) = 24.}

Offline Mongo62

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #9 on: 07/16/2014 07:55 PM »
I notice that the bet just says "reused rockets". Nothing about Falcon 9R or even kerolox engines. So reused methalox rockets would be included. In ten years, these might have taken over the market, or at least be in advanced development (keeping in mind that other businesses with reusable rockets might have emerged by then too).

Offline mheney

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #10 on: 07/16/2014 07:57 PM »



Offline Jim

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #11 on: 07/16/2014 08:20 PM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

Titan IV 1989-2005
Delta II 1989-2015
Atlas II  1991-2004
Delta IV 2003 - 202?
Atlas V  2002 - 202?

Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things.  They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue stream

Offline Hyperion5

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #12 on: 07/16/2014 08:28 PM »
bad bet, there is no way F9R is flying that much if at all in 10 years.  they are moving on to bigger better things.  you might as well buy Jim his 24 beers now

Titan IV 1989-2005
Delta II 1989-2015
Atlas II  1991-2004
Delta IV 2003 - 202?
Atlas V  2002 - 202?

Spacex has to fund their bigger & better things.  They can't start building and operating the followons without an revenue stream

The Falcon 9 family dying out is not an inevitability anyways.  There is a good chance it'll keep evolving much like the R7 rocket family has since it started flying back in 1957.  That family is nearing 60 years old now, and near as I can tell it should easily reach 70.  Why go to the expense of "bigger and better" when you can merely improve what you already have?  It's worked for the Russians. 

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #13 on: 07/16/2014 08:30 PM »
I think I have a beer bet for Jim for 2015 that SpaceX would fly more than ULA, but I can't remember the details. Jim has a better than even chance of winning the bet.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #14 on: 07/16/2014 08:50 PM »
{I'll bet a single malt that a F9, or its derivation/variant, or F9R first stage, or its derivation/variant, will not have a manifest or flight rate of 24 in the year 2024, nor will it have achieved or exceeded 24 in the years prior to 2024. FH = 3* F9 or 3*F9R. I pay first taker in the first year that count (F9 + F9R + FH/3) = 24.}

Shouldn't that formula multiply FH by 3 to account for 3 cores used? With that correction I'd take the bet. (that at some point prior to 2024 end of year, the number of cores flown will be 24 or more)
« Last Edit: 07/16/2014 08:57 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline mme

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #15 on: 07/16/2014 09:24 PM »

It just struck me this is win-win for Jim. He either gets booze, or an endless supply of rocket launches.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline Robert Thompson

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #16 on: 07/16/2014 09:52 PM »
Yup. The sum of F9 (single core) + F9R (single core) + [(FH = 3 cores) / 3] will not reach 24 in or before 2024. So 1 FH + 21 cores or 2 FH + 18 cores or 3 FH + 15 cores, etc, = 750 mL 15+ year single malt scotch. I believe that is civilized.

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #17 on: 07/16/2014 09:59 PM »
Yup. The sum of F9 (single core) + F9R (single core) + [(FH = 3 cores) / 3] will not reach 24 in or before 2024. So 1 FH + 21 cores or 2 FH + 18 cores or 3 FH + 15 cores, etc, = 750 mL 15+ year single malt scotch. I believe that is civilized.

I am keen to take the bet but I still think your formula is wrong.  Suppose[1] in 2021 they launch 9 FHs and NOTHING else  ... then your formula is 0 F9 + 0 F9R + (9 FH / 3) = 3 and I lose.  I think the answer should be that they launched 27 cores and I win. (9 FH * 3 ) = 27

1 - hypothetically. We know they aren't going to do this but I want easy math.... :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Jim

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #18 on: 07/17/2014 12:53 AM »
One FH is one mission.  Number of cores is irrelevant
« Last Edit: 07/17/2014 12:54 AM by Jim »

Offline Lar

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Re: Beer Bet Tracker: SpaceX's Long Term Success
« Reply #19 on: 07/17/2014 01:09 AM »
One FH is one mission.  Number of cores is irrelevant

I'm betting about cores in my offers (yours may be structured differnently) But it sounds like while you would not multiply by three, you at least would not divide by three.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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