Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 - CASSIOPE - September, 2013 - GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD  (Read 507398 times)

Offline AJW

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But they do seem to be having a lot of problems with this new rocket Chris.

Falcon 9 is on a nearly identical initial launch rate when compared to Atlas V and Delta IV, even with the impact of the transition from V1.0 to V1.1.  I've been to KSC when an older rocket had a scrub that lasted over 4 months.  All you can do is trust the engineers to make the right decisions and pick up a good book to pass the time, like Steve Squyres 'Roving Mars'.

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32719.msg1091484#msg1091484
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Offline meekGee

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So I'd guess, without being there, that people sat down like grown ups, weighted the risks and consequences of all options, and decided to continue at this pace.

Occam's razor would not lead to that conclusion.  It would be more of a top down edict.  Much like the frivolous assembly of F9-0.5 during the holiday season at the end of 2008.

Well, neither of us is there, though I don't see what Occam's razor has to do with "top-down edicts" - Occam's razor says that lacking other data, the explanation requiring the least amount of conjecture is more likely to be true.  For example, a conspiracy is unlikely when the non-conspiracy story hold water.

Sure Elon has the final say, but the final say is also likely to be exactly as I described - talk with his crew, and make an informed decision with them.

I doubt that he'll "push push push" when his people are telling him they're either too tired or that they haven't had enough time to do a proper job. IMO, his job is to figure out whether they're trying to "run run run" too quickly.
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Offline padrat

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But they do seem to be having a lot of problems with this new rocket Chris.
Couldn't it be because... it's a new rocket? Did you follow Atlas V's or Delta IV's inaugural launch with this detail?

Compared to what? This is not just a new rocket it is also a new launch pad!

And a new launch team....
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Offline Zed_Noir

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But they do seem to be having a lot of problems with this new rocket Chris.
Couldn't it be because... it's a new rocket? Did you follow Atlas V's or Delta IV's inaugural launch with this detail?

Compared to what? This is not just a new rocket it is also a new launch pad!

And a new launch team....

So there are separate launch teams at CCAFS & VAFB?

Offline kirghizstan

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But they do seem to be having a lot of problems with this new rocket Chris.
Couldn't it be because... it's a new rocket? Did you follow Atlas V's or Delta IV's inaugural launch with this detail?

Compared to what? This is not just a new rocket it is also a new launch pad!

And a new launch team....

So there are separate launch teams at CCAFS & VAFB?

2 different pads that in theory could be launching within days of eachother of course they need 2 teams

Offline Lars_J

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So I'd guess, without being there, that people sat down like grown ups, weighted the risks and consequences of all options, and decided to continue at this pace.

Occam's razor would not lead to that conclusion.  It would be more of a top down edict.  Much like the frivolous assembly of F9-0.5 during the holiday season at the end of 2008.

That one data point from several years is going to be flogged over and over by you, Jim - but it still doesn't make a trend. Nor was it an actual launch of a flight article. Unless you care to point out detrimental go fever for the actual launches.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2013 01:21 am by Lars_J »

Offline justineet

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Nothing big of a surprise here folks....the purpose of hot fire test is to identify any potential problems before launch especially on new rockets and systems.....turnover. issue?? .....no way......these people love their jobs....it's their dream job!

Offline dcporter

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Nothing big of a surprise here folks....the purpose of hot fire test is to identify any potential problems before launch especially on new rockets and systems.....turnover. issue?? .....no way......these people love their jobs....it's their dream job!

The ones I'm aware of on Twitter are sounding like you'd expect... exhilarated but running on fumes. You can only do that for so long, even for a job you love.

Offline meekGee

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Nothing big of a surprise here folks....the purpose of hot fire test is to identify any potential problems before launch especially on new rockets and systems.....turnover. issue?? .....no way......these people love their jobs....it's their dream job!

The ones I'm aware of on Twitter are sounding like you'd expect... exhilarated but running on fumes. You can only do that for so long, even for a job you love.

That's 100% true.  But F9 has not yet made the transition to "business as usual" mode.   The more likely failures on these next few launches have to do with design issues, not flow execution.
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Offline Norm38

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Has there been any L2 word on the causes of the first hot fire aborts?  I figure the reason for today's repeat is to make sure they can nail an instantaneous ignition time.  Cassiope has a window, but ISS launches don't.  So they need everything that can give a false alarm worked out.  Hopefully they get it dialed in today.
For trying to get a Cpk value on thresholds, they've got one data point.  And not enough to prove a trend against cert data at McGregor. 
« Last Edit: 09/14/2013 05:42 pm by Norm38 »

Offline Norm38

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A followup question:  How similar do we think the launch pads and McGregor test setup are?  Surely the same fittings and valves?  Overall hose lengths?  Similar tank setup?

Ignoring that the 2nd stage and payload are on top, is hotfiring the 1st stage at the pad basically the same test as acceptance at McGregor?  In terms of having to get everything right?

Offline PattiM

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I think the problem is that a flight vehicle is way different (and all "new parts") from a test stand.  I do static firings and it's amazing how much effort is saved by using the same equipment over and over.  But a rocket (including valves & seals) is all new hardware, and a lot of it!  (too much to do 100% testing with anything like rapid turnaround - NASA et. al. learnt this decades ago)
« Last Edit: 09/14/2013 05:55 pm by PattiM »

Offline Robotbeat

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I think the problem is that a flight vehicle is way different (and all "new parts") from a test stand.  I do static firings and it's amazing how much effort is saved by using the same equipment over and over.  But a rocket (including valves & seals) is all new hardware, and a lot of it!  (too much to do 100% testing with anything like rapid turnaround - NASA et. al. learnt this decades ago)
Of course, the point is to use even the rocket parts over and over again. ;)

But yes, this is the same architecture as v1.0 (i.e. TSTO kerolox with 9 engines on first stage, engine-out capability, gas generator, similar pad flow, etc...) but the hardware is very, very significantly changed. The pad is new. They will naturally have problems that need solving on this first flight, like every other rocket.
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Offline bioelectromechanic

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I'm surprised nobody is admiring Elon's dauntlessness.

Once you've done the seemingly impossible and got a pretty good cheap launch vehicle like the F9,  it takes a tremendous amount of courage to risk it all with by going after a huge leap in technology like the F9.1.
Consider the Russians were too afraid to change out vacuum tubes for transistors for 40 years.
Carpe diem et vadem ad astra

Offline king1999

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I'm surprised nobody is admiring Elon's dauntlessness.

Once you've done the seemingly impossible and got a pretty good cheap launch vehicle like the F9,  it takes a tremendous amount of courage to risk it all with by going after a huge leap in technology like the F9.1.
Consider the Russians were too afraid to change out vacuum tubes for transistors for 40 years.
He has said in a interview that if he can’t make rockets reusable, he would consider SpaceX has failed.  People from Silicon Valley have different mind set. Of course, there is Mars, and F9R  is just one small step.

So I admire more his vision and the way to approach his end goal.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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I think the problem is that a flight vehicle is way different (and all "new parts") from a test stand.  I do static firings and it's amazing how much effort is saved by using the same equipment over and over.  But a rocket (including valves & seals) is all new hardware, and a lot of it!  (too much to do 100% testing with anything like rapid turnaround - NASA et. al. learnt this decades ago)

The whole first stage was fired on a test stand in Texas.  This same stage that's on the pad in California.  There are no new parts on the first stage of the flight vehicle.

Only two things were new with the hot fire on the pad:

    1. The ground equipment on the pad.  This includes the flame trench, the transporter/erector, the propellent hoses etc.

    2. The second stage and payload attached to the top.

Offline mb199

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No hot fire test today, scheduled for Wednesday Sept 18.

Offline king1999

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No hot fire test today, scheduled for Wednesday Sept 18.
That’s why Elon is taking a break in Vegas  ;D

@elonmusk: Supporting @FloydMayweather in Vegas w @justinbieber, @Shervin, @Kimbal and @TalulahRiley. Am behind JB's fist. http://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/379009738324729856/photo/1

Offline Lars_J

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No hot fire test today, scheduled for Wednesday Sept 18.

Bummer, but they'll take the time they need.

On a more positive note, that means I'll have a chance of catching the launch live, since I will be out of Internet access for the next few days.. :-) (on a cruise)

Offline WHAP

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No hot fire test today, scheduled for Wednesday Sept 18.
That’s why Elon is taking a break in Vegas  ;D

@elonmusk: Supporting @FloydMayweather in Vegas w @justinbieber, @Shervin, @Kimbal and @TalulahRiley. Am behind JB's fist. http://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/379009738324729856/photo/1

Or that's why there was no hot fire test today  ;)
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