Author Topic: Planetary Resources  (Read 198566 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4260
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 2853
  • Likes Given: 951
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #820 on: 05/23/2017 07:52 PM »
Quote
Marquez: Planetary Resources plans for first commercial deep space mission in 2020, visiting several near Earth asteroids.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/867104895408771076

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4260
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 2853
  • Likes Given: 951
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #821 on: 07/11/2017 05:30 PM »
Quote
Disrupt mining on Earth and take humanity to the stars. Apply now for our Business Analyst position. http://www.planetaryresources.com/careers/job-board/?gh_jid=744045#careers-job-board

https://twitter.com/planetaryrsrcs/status/884816178669137921

Offline Katana

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 280
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #822 on: 07/12/2017 02:19 AM »
I am curious to know if there was a specific engineering reason why it was not feasible to integrate a screen and selfie arm on the satellite. I am suspicious, but I don't think they intended for this to happen.
Selfie is only one feature of Arkyd.
Maybe the space telescope itself or associated service bandwidth cost more than $1.5M?

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Europe
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #823 on: 07/12/2017 06:20 AM »
Quote
Disrupt mining on Earth and take humanity to the stars. Apply now for our Business Analyst position. http://www.planetaryresources.com/careers/job-board/?gh_jid=744045#careers-job-board

https://twitter.com/planetaryrsrcs/status/884816178669137921

Entry level business experience, eh? Any Americans here that fit that description not thinking about applying? Just so I can come kick your asses, just as a matter of principle. ;-)

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #824 on: 09/15/2017 09:39 PM »
Barrick (large gold mining company) ideas sharing with PR.

http://barrickbeyondborders.com/mining/2017/09/5-things-you-should-know-about-asteroid-mining/

It's matter of time before mining companies start investing in space resource extraction. Space mining while a totally different enviroment will still rely heavily terrestrial mining techniques and knowledge, but most importantly investment.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8619
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 5370
  • Likes Given: 3553
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #825 on: 09/16/2017 05:01 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5172
  • Liked: 973
  • Likes Given: 344
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #826 on: 09/16/2017 05:14 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3134
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1534
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #827 on: 09/16/2017 06:42 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.
The reason for the long timeline for space is the lack of mining and transportation equipment. Once there is some level of equipment and transportation then the timelines shrink.

The big mining consortium/investors are biding their time awaiting the equipment and transportation. They will let smaller (wildcats) blaze the trail.

Added: Since we are talking about 10+ years out. An ITSy returning with 25mt of refined (ingots) would have a potential value of (at the current retail price of Gold of ~$1,000/oz) $880M. At wholesale price it would still be greater than the total costs including transport back to Earth. This is because most Cargo transport out to L2 would be returning empty. So prices on returning bulk cargo to Earth may be very low. <$100/kg vs the value of the cargo at wholesale price (50% of the retail price) of $17,600/kg. This leaves $8,700/kg in other costs to mine these very high % bearing ores and refine the product prior to shipment. Also they would reap a 100% profit margin over operating cost. So The mining company would make in profit per 25mt of delivered refined ingots when the ingots are sold at the wholesale prices of a profit of $220M per ITSy return. With just 10 returns/yr that is a profit of $2.2B/yr.

This is what the big boys are waiting for. A way to make immense profits on an immense scale.
« Last Edit: 09/16/2017 07:03 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9566
  • Liked: 345
  • Likes Given: 457
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #828 on: 09/16/2017 06:46 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.

Geez, I hate to sound like a broken record, but one way to mitigate this problem is through establishment of licensable mining patents for ore discoveries in space. There is a whole thread about that somewhere here.

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Europe
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #829 on: 09/16/2017 08:28 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.
The reason for the long timeline for space is the lack of mining and transportation equipment. Once there is some level of equipment and transportation then the timelines shrink.

The big mining consortium/investors are biding their time awaiting the equipment and transportation. They will let smaller (wildcats) blaze the trail.

Added: Since we are talking about 10+ years out. An ITSy returning with 25mt of refined (ingots) would have a potential value of (at the current retail price of Gold of ~$1,000/oz) $880M. At wholesale price it would still be greater than the total costs including transport back to Earth. This is because most Cargo transport out to L2 would be returning empty. So prices on returning bulk cargo to Earth may be very low. <$100/kg vs the value of the cargo at wholesale price (50% of the retail price) of $17,600/kg. This leaves $8,700/kg in other costs to mine these very high % bearing ores and refine the product prior to shipment. Also they would reap a 100% profit margin over operating cost. So The mining company would make in profit per 25mt of delivered refined ingots when the ingots are sold at the wholesale prices of a profit of $220M per ITSy return. With just 10 returns/yr that is a profit of $2.2B/yr.

This is what the big boys are waiting for. A way to make immense profits on an immense scale.

sounds great. Who's paying to get 10 ITSy's per year out to L2? That wasn't quite clear to me. And do we know whether ITSy will be able to return this much payload?

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 688
  • Europe
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #830 on: 09/16/2017 08:34 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.

Geez, I hate to sound like a broken record, but one way to mitigate this problem is through establishment of licensable mining patents for ore discoveries in space. There is a whole thread about that somewhere here.

which will undoubtedly be lobbied into law in some form or another by big capital to prevent newcomers from entering the market, but not before technical hurdles are deemed manageable. If history can be a guide for the future.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3134
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1534
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #831 on: 09/16/2017 09:09 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.
The reason for the long timeline for space is the lack of mining and transportation equipment. Once there is some level of equipment and transportation then the timelines shrink.

The big mining consortium/investors are biding their time awaiting the equipment and transportation. They will let smaller (wildcats) blaze the trail.

Added: Since we are talking about 10+ years out. An ITSy returning with 25mt of refined (ingots) would have a potential value of (at the current retail price of Gold of ~$1,000/oz) $880M. At wholesale price it would still be greater than the total costs including transport back to Earth. This is because most Cargo transport out to L2 would be returning empty. So prices on returning bulk cargo to Earth may be very low. <$100/kg vs the value of the cargo at wholesale price (50% of the retail price) of $17,600/kg. This leaves $8,700/kg in other costs to mine these very high % bearing ores and refine the product prior to shipment. Also they would reap a 100% profit margin over operating cost. So The mining company would make in profit per 25mt of delivered refined ingots when the ingots are sold at the wholesale prices of a profit of $220M per ITSy return. With just 10 returns/yr that is a profit of $2.2B/yr.

This is what the big boys are waiting for. A way to make immense profits on an immense scale.

sounds great. Who's paying to get 10 ITSy's per year out to L2? That wasn't quite clear to me. And do we know whether ITSy will be able to return this much payload?
The ITS definition is that at least 25% of the outbound launch payload is able to land back onto Earth. Part of the Mars usage definition of requirements. Outbound is likely to be ~100mt. The 10 ITSy to L2 is also likely to be habitats/hardware/equipment/supplies for new and operating mines as well as other in-space industry at the location. Those 10 ITSy total costs if nothing was sent back would likely be about $1.2B. Revenue just from precious metals returned to Earth is at for those 10 ITSy >$4.4B. Most of the material mined (silica, aluminum, titanium, Iron, magnesium, etc) would remain in-space for building in-space infrastructure possibly even SPS for Earth. This materials value in space is equal to the cost of getting it there from Earth. Or about $1000/kg at L2. So the mines will make money in a lot of different ways besides just the precious metals. If this sometimes considered almost a byproduct is sold at $10/kg to the local in-space industry (at 100th the cost if shipped from Earth) the immerse amount of material vs the precious metals (almost a 100 to 1 ratio) would bring in $250M at $10kg, or $2.5B at $100/kg. It is possible in a mature in-space industry to make nearly as much from the "byproduct" materials as from the precious metals. For some materials may have significant value above the average because of scarcity in the in-space industry. Eventually the amount of precious metals as a percent mined will start reducing because these metals will start to be consumed in-space in the in-space industry. But as a total amount shipped back to Earth these metals will likely never shrink in amounts just that the amount being mined will grow faster than the percent shrinks.

Once in-space mining gets started there will suddenly be immense amounts of material for build infrastructure and other items available in-space at very rock bottom prices mainly because the mining companies just want to get rid of the material and not have to pay to dispose of it into some disposal orbit. So that 250mt of material being returned to Earth has 25,000mt of material available for building in-space.

The final item to contemplate is that this is but a single asteroid mine of a moderate to small sized asteroid that would be mined over a period of as much as 20 years. In relationship to Earth mines this would still be a very small mine although highly profitable for the capitol costs even if the cost of mine setup was $10 to $20B. An in-space mine would never shut down for lack of material to mine. Just go get another asteroid. These mines could operate (and be upgraded multiple times) over 50 to 100 years or even more. A single mine/refining complex could produce in revenue in just 10 years >$100B. Over 100 years >$1T. With a new mine started each year and the rate of new mine starts increasing such that in every 5 years the rate has doubled, by 20 years there would be nearly 200 mining/refinery complexes producing $2T/yr in revenue business.
« Last Edit: 09/16/2017 09:53 PM by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3134
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1534
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #832 on: 09/17/2017 06:45 PM »
Thanks Lar.

So where does Planetary Resources or others like them fit into this narrative?

They are the "Wildcater's" who believe in the existence of a very rich resource that others do not. If successful they will become extremely rich. But often times Wildcater's just go broke. So this is a very high financial risk venture with no certainty of payoff. Actually if not managed very well will result in failure and bankruptcy. Planetary Resources is both cautious and bold seemingly simultaneously. Technically cautions and programmatically bold.

Offline M.E.T.

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 439
  • Liked: 184
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #833 on: 09/17/2017 08:03 PM »
Really stupid question, and one that can probably be put to rest quickly with a better understanding of scale.

How much extra-terrestrial mass can we bring down to Earth before the mass and gravity of the Earth itself is measurably affected by it? If we extrapolate space mining to its eventual and hoped for extent over the course of a century or two, will the cumulative transfer to Earth of large portions of the mass of the asteroid field have any impact on the physical properties of the Earth itself?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3134
  • Florida
  • Liked: 1534
  • Likes Given: 122
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #834 on: 09/17/2017 08:14 PM »
Really stupid question, and one that can probably be put to rest quickly with a better understanding of scale.

How much extra-terrestrial mass can we bring down to Earth before the mass and gravity of the Earth itself is measurably affected by it? If we extrapolate space mining to its eventual and hoped for extent over the course of a century or two, will the cumulative transfer to Earth of large portions of the mass of the asteroid field have any impact on the physical properties of the Earth itself?
We are likely to export more mass than we would ever import. Plus over all history of the planet the mass has been growing because of meteor impacts. Far more than what we would likely cause even after 30 years from now.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8619
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 5370
  • Likes Given: 3553
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #835 on: 09/17/2017 10:22 PM »
True.

But I LOVE the question because it shows the scale of thinking here.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline jabe

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1077
  • Liked: 62
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #836 on: 09/17/2017 10:41 PM »
Really stupid question, and one that can probably be put to rest quickly with a better understanding of scale.

How much extra-terrestrial mass can we bring down to Earth before the mass and gravity of the Earth itself is measurably affected by it? If we extrapolate space mining to its eventual and hoped for extent over the course of a century or two, will the cumulative transfer to Earth of large portions of the mass of the asteroid field have any impact on the physical properties of the Earth itself?

Another way to look at it..how much mass has been added to the Earth over eons of time as meteors/falling stars etc...
will take a long time of asteroid importing to match that value :)
my $0.02
jb

Offline ChrisWilson68

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3534
  • Sunnyvale, CA
  • Liked: 2083
  • Likes Given: 2465
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #837 on: 09/17/2017 11:57 PM »
Yes. and the total cost is within reach of these companies which do multibillion dollar single mine development projects already.
The key is, they have relatively short timeframes for paying off that investment though. Not so in space.

Geez, I hate to sound like a broken record, but one way to mitigate this problem is through establishment of licensable mining patents for ore discoveries in space. There is a whole thread about that somewhere here.

I disagree.  That would only be useful if the hard problem was figuring out which asteroids had minerals and once we knew which ones had them, it would be easy to extract them.  Then asteroid mining patents would be a good way to encourage people to figure out which ones have the resources.

But that's not the case.  The hardest problem, by far, is doing the actual mining.  Figuring out which asteroids have which resources is easy in comparison.  So mining patents would actually be counterproductive because it would encourage people to snap up the patents and sell them for large sums, hurting companies trying to actually do the extraction.  It's the extraction that needs help, not the location of resources.

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 27025
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 6914
  • Likes Given: 4879
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #838 on: 10/07/2017 05:32 PM »
This very recent unlisted video from Planetary Resources shows an upcoming prospecting mission of several cluster-launched probes with Hall thruster propulsion, each with several smaller surface-impacting microprobes.

It looks straight out of The Expanse:


Can't wait to hear more about this!
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8619
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 5370
  • Likes Given: 3553
Re: Planetary Resources
« Reply #839 on: 10/07/2017 05:59 PM »
Great preview ... how many years before we see this?  were they trying to be launch vehicle agnostic?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Tags: