Author Topic: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?  (Read 52700 times)

Online S.Paulissen

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #140 on: 06/13/2017 05:20 PM »
???  I guess I'm missing something here (Is this OT??)  I thought the plan was to build and launch from south Texas, or is this thread an exercise in speculation?  I know it has just been 'reactivated', but thought they were headed this way (to south Texas) back in 2011.

This thread is an exercise in speculation, but SpaceX has never specified where they are going to build the bigger stages.  It's not really out of the question for initial production to happen in LA.

I don't foresee them getting very far without dramatic developments and innovation with segmented carbon fiber pressure vessels, which sounds rather unlikely.

I'm not sure where you're coming from in any part of this post.

They already have a 10m cf tank test item that has been pressure tested.  What's the massive and unlikely leap left that you think they need?

Source: http://tinyurl.com/ya4e7p3w

Edit: tiny url
« Last Edit: 06/13/2017 05:25 PM by S.Paulissen »
"An expert is a person who has found out by his own painful experience all the mistakes that one can make in a very narrow field." -Niels Bohr
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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #141 on: 06/13/2017 05:29 PM »
???  I guess I'm missing something here (Is this OT??)  I thought the plan was to build and launch from south Texas, or is this thread an exercise in speculation?  I know it has just been 'reactivated', but thought they were headed this way (to south Texas) back in 2011.

This thread is an exercise in speculation, but SpaceX has never specified where they are going to build the bigger stages.  It's not really out of the question for initial production to happen in LA.

I don't foresee them getting very far without dramatic developments and innovation with segmented carbon fiber pressure vessels, which sounds rather unlikely.

I'm not sure where you're coming from in any part of this post.

They already have a 10m cf tank test item that has been pressure tested.  What's the massive and unlikely leap left that you think they need?

Source: http://tinyurl.com/ya4e7p3w

Edit: tiny url


Well that tank is in pieces as of a few months ago...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5ul1du/remains_of_the_its_composite_tank_in_anacortes_wa/

Offline RotoSequence

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #142 on: 06/13/2017 05:46 PM »
I'm not sure where you're coming from in any part of this post.

They already have a 10m cf tank test item that has been pressure tested.  What's the massive and unlikely leap left that you think they need?

Source: http://tinyurl.com/ya4e7p3w

Edit: tiny url

As tvg98 said:

[...]that tank is in pieces as of a few months ago...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5ul1du/remains_of_the_its_composite_tank_in_anacortes_wa/

The unannounced destruction of their first structural test article suggests that the ITS' composite tanks will require some significant developments in multi-part composite structure fabrication to meet design strength, or the use of a one piece tank.
« Last Edit: 06/13/2017 05:47 PM by RotoSequence »

Online somepitch

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #143 on: 06/13/2017 05:59 PM »
I'm not sure where you're coming from in any part of this post.

They already have a 10m cf tank test item that has been pressure tested.  What's the massive and unlikely leap left that you think they need?

Source: http://tinyurl.com/ya4e7p3w

Edit: tiny url

As tvg98 said:

[...]that tank is in pieces as of a few months ago...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5ul1du/remains_of_the_its_composite_tank_in_anacortes_wa/

The unannounced destruction of their first structural test article suggests that the ITS' composite tanks will require some significant developments in multi-part composite structure fabrication to meet design strength, or the use of a one piece tank.

I don't think it suggests that - all those pictures suggest to me is that the tank (unexpectedly or predicted) failed under conditions that we have no insight into to my knowledge.  Or (less likely) perhaps it didn't fail at all but served its purpose and is not worth transporting to storage (Hawthorne/McGregor/etc) in one piece so is being destroyed for easy disposal.


Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #144 on: 06/13/2017 06:03 PM »
The first three attempts to reach orbit in Falcon 1 failed.  F9Dev1 (aka Grasshopper 2) blew up while testing landing technology in Texas.  None of those things meant the development programs were failing.  They were failures along the way, which is the normal course of things when developing new technology.

Should we be surprised to find out SpaceX had a test tank for ITS blow up?  Not really.  Should we conclude that if they did the program is halted or has run into an insurmountable hurdle?  Definitely not.

Offline RonM

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #145 on: 06/13/2017 06:40 PM »
While we're speculating about the test tank, I'll toss in my two cents. SpaceX could have had a series of successful tests and decided to test the tank to failure.

Without any information, we have no idea how the tests went.

Didn't SpaceX say they were going to build ITS at the launch site? They could still build the engines and some other at Hawthorne.

Online flyright

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #146 on: 06/13/2017 10:30 PM »
...

Didn't SpaceX say they were going to build ITS at the launch site? They could still build the engines and some other at Hawthorne.

I think building at the Launch site was the original idea.
However, in the IAC speech Elon indicated the ITS would probably be constructed in several states and assembled at the launch site (39-A).
source: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41250.msg1590018#msg1590018

If west coast locations like Hawthorne are considered then maybe the Seattle area should be considered since this is where the test tank was tested.

Offline rsdavis9

Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #147 on: 07/04/2017 05:58 PM »
10m tunnel 5km long costs how much? Might be cheaper than relocating factory.
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Offline Brovane

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #148 on: 07/04/2017 07:13 PM »
As I was driving yesterday down the 405 yesterday to the in-law's house for 4th of July.  I couldn't help but notice the former S-II assembly building in Seal Beach.  What is the conditions of the Former North American (Now Boeing) S-II assembly facilities in Seal Beach? 
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline docmordrid

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #149 on: 07/04/2017 07:57 PM »
As I was driving yesterday down the 405 yesterday to the in-law's house for 4th of July.  I couldn't help but notice the former S-II assembly building in Seal Beach.  What is the conditions of the Former North American (Now Boeing) S-II assembly facilities in Seal Beach?

Says here they're moving people out of Huntington Beach and into Seal Beach & elsewhere.

OC Register....
« Last Edit: 07/04/2017 07:57 PM by docmordrid »
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #150 on: 07/10/2017 01:16 AM »
Setting aside the more sensible options (Texas) and the more fanciful options (Zeppelins), the size of the stage they could build in Hawthorne really comes down to the tooling and the road transport to the port.

Looking at the factory floor now it's not that hard to imagine cores twice as wide. i.e., 7.5 m diameter, but what about length? Twice as long? Doesn't seem like there's room... maybe they'll need to extend the hangar?

Even then, I find it hard to imagine anything that big going south down the 110 to the Port of LA.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #151 on: 07/10/2017 03:11 AM »
Looking at the factory floor now it's not that hard to imagine cores twice as wide. i.e., 7.5 m diameter, but what about length? Twice as long? Doesn't seem like there's room... maybe they'll need to extend the hangar?

If the special core is not going to use the same tooling and production sequences of the current Falcon 9 cores (which if it's composite construction it wouldn't), then they would have to shut down the existing Falcon 9 core production line while they build the special core. I don't see that happening.

But maybe they have room somewhere else in their Hawthorne facility (or buildings nearby they could rent) and they'll set up a temporary production facility? That would be my guess.
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Offline docmordrid

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #152 on: 07/10/2017 03:23 AM »
AIUI, they're slowly taking over parts of the Triumph Aerostructures facility at the other end of the block, with one smaller building now being used as the Dragon Hatchery.

Isn't Triumph supposed to be out of the large Boeing parts facility about 2019-2020, moving production east? If so, how high/long are its spaces?
« Last Edit: 07/10/2017 03:25 AM by docmordrid »
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Offline Roy_H

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #153 on: 07/10/2017 12:44 PM »
Is somebody ambitious enough to take a map of the area and highlight all the buildings owned by SpaceX?

I gather they would have easy access to the runway there. I think in terms of largest practicable diameter core from Hawthorn, I think the barge idea through Panama is not cost effective. What about air lift like StratoLaunch? Someone pointed out that the clearance is 6 meters so maybe the maximum core it could carry would be about 5m? A helicopter could carry a 5m stage from SpaceX to LA airport where StratoLaunch could land. I think this would be a much cheaper option to a barge through Panama. On this basis I think the largest stage out of Hawthorn would be 5m.

Just for reference, the ITS optimal diameter would be 12 to 15 meters, 10m would be a skinny tall version.
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Offline bobc

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #154 on: 07/10/2017 01:57 PM »
Raul made this incredible map that shows all SpaceX facilities and booster/dragon landing locations for each mission. I'm really surprised I don't see it mentioned more, it's a fantastic resource.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1wvgFIPuOmI8da9EIB88tHo9vamo&hl&ll=33.29380355834657%2C-116.24898087834447&z=7

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #155 on: 07/10/2017 02:01 PM »
Even then, I find it hard to imagine anything that big going south down the 110 to the Port of LA.

As discussed earlier in the thread, it would go Northwest to Marina del Rey, not South to the Port of LA.  The proof of concept for this is the movement of the Shuttle orbiter and external tank from Marina del Rey to the California Science Center.  It's doable, if disruptive and expensive.  Unknown max diameter and length with current infrastructure.

Is somebody ambitious enough to take a map of the area and highlight all the buildings owned by SpaceX?

Is there any chance that one of the more graphically gifted NSFers would be willing to create a map of SpaceX's Hawthorne footprint similar to what DaveG has done for Boca Chica properties in TX?

Incidentally, @Raul here at NSF has put together a Google Maps of SpaceX facilities.  It has the two facilities that I mentioned above, so it's probably pretty comprehensive.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1wvgFIPuOmI8da9EIB88tHo9vamo&hl
« Last Edit: 07/10/2017 02:27 PM by RedLineTrain »

Offline Zucal

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #156 on: 07/10/2017 04:13 PM »
That map's still missing some facilities. I'll draw something up soon.

Offline Jim

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #157 on: 07/10/2017 04:29 PM »
LA airport where StratoLaunch could land.

It can't land there

Online S.Paulissen

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #158 on: 09/30/2017 05:00 AM »
I'm not sure where you're coming from in any part of this post.

They already have a 10m cf tank test item that has been pressure tested.  What's the massive and unlikely leap left that you think they need?

Source: http://tinyurl.com/ya4e7p3w

Edit: tiny url

As tvg98 said:

[...]that tank is in pieces as of a few months ago...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5ul1du/remains_of_the_its_composite_tank_in_anacortes_wa/

The unannounced destruction of their first structural test article suggests that the ITS' composite tanks will require some significant developments in multi-part composite structure fabrication to meet design strength, or the use of a one piece tank.

Just dredging this up after finally getting some insight into the tank failure.

They most certainly did successfully make and test this tank.
"An expert is a person who has found out by his own painful experience all the mistakes that one can make in a very narrow field." -Niels Bohr
Poster previously known as Exclavion going by his real name now.

Offline octavo

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Re: How big a stage could SpaceX build at Hawthorne?
« Reply #159 on: 09/30/2017 06:28 AM »
I'm not sure where you're coming from in any part of this post.

They already have a 10m cf tank test item that has been pressure tested.  What's the massive and unlikely leap left that you think they need?

Source: http://tinyurl.com/ya4e7p3w

Edit: tiny url

As tvg98 said:

[...]that tank is in pieces as of a few months ago...

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/5ul1du/remains_of_the_its_composite_tank_in_anacortes_wa/

The unannounced destruction of their first structural test article suggests that the ITS' composite tanks will require some significant developments in multi-part composite structure fabrication to meet design strength, or the use of a one piece tank.

Just dredging this up after finally getting some insight into the tank failure.

They most certainly did successfully make and test this tank.
Even more significant for me was that the failure in the video didn't seem to occur along the seam (assuming it was tested in the orientation we saw it in earlier photos)

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