Author Topic: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site  (Read 185176 times)

Offline wjbarnett

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Jack
Twitter: wjackbarnett

Offline TheFallen

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #41 on: 10/08/2010 10:18 PM »
OMB OMB OMB... ::)

Online Chris Bergin

Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #42 on: 10/08/2010 10:39 PM »
Quote
Now the weather is turning cooler and Iím thinking about stoking up the fireplace.  Iíll need some paper to get the first fire going.  I think I know where I can find a piece to burn.

Blimey! Interesting read again!

Offline yg1968

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #43 on: 10/08/2010 11:13 PM »
That probably also explains where the NASA FY 2011 Budget comes from: OMB and OSTP.

Offline alexw

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #44 on: 10/09/2010 12:48 AM »
     {pain}

     Just when I was kinda-sorta-starting to believe (against most logic) the relentless charges that the Augustine Commission was too pessimistic, that the hardware/budget/timeline picture is better than it looks ... Wayne Hale goes and pours water on those hopes.
 
      Thank you very, very much for your candor.
     -Alex

Online TrueBlueWitt

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #45 on: 10/09/2010 01:24 AM »
     {pain}

     Just when I was kinda-sorta-starting to believe (against most logic) the relentless charges that the Augustine Commission was too pessimistic, that the hardware/budget/timeline picture is better than it looks ... Wayne Hale goes and pours water on those hopes.
 
      Thank you very, very much for your candor.
     -Alex

That's not how I read it.. I'm honestly not sure what to make of Wayne's Blog.

Does he feel like a lot of effort was wasted on options that could never fit in the budget and that the commission should have spent more time coming up with, and making sure they had the numbers right on options that could fit in the budget???

Online mike robel

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #46 on: 10/09/2010 01:28 AM »
Yes, this is partly while I voted on the opinion poll in the space policy sector.  We would have been better off with Delta IV/Orion together with a unmanned supply Orion to preserve the  near term future.

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #47 on: 10/09/2010 05:24 PM »
I'm curious to see Mr. Hale's thoughts on what we can/should pursue, and specifically whether any beyond-LEO human spaceflight should be attempted within the existing budget constraints. 

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #48 on: 10/09/2010 05:25 PM »
I'm curious to see Mr. Hale's thoughts on what we can/should pursue, and specifically whether any beyond-LEO human spaceflight should be attempted within the existing budget constraints. 

Ask him on his blog.  There's a fairly good chance he will respond to you and tell you or at very least say he is saving that for a future post. 
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #49 on: 10/09/2010 05:42 PM »

Ask him on his blog.  There's a fairly good chance he will respond to you and tell you or at very least say he is saving that for a future post. 

Looks like somebody beat me to it!  ;)  And indeed, he replied with "subject of another post for another day."

Online savuporo

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #50 on: 10/09/2010 06:25 PM »
I'd really like to hear more about what happened to Craig Steidle's spirals, CEV flyoffs, and the entire pre-ESAS era of VSE implementation.
Nobody is willing to tell the story.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline astrobrian

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #51 on: 10/09/2010 07:44 PM »
Quote
Now the weather is turning cooler and Iím thinking about stoking up the fireplace.  Iíll need some paper to get the first fire going.  I think I know where I can find a piece to burn.

Blimey! Interesting read again!
I love his way of thinking :)

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #52 on: 10/11/2010 01:47 PM »
Wow! I nearly fainted when I saw Wayne Hale post.

Old eyes.  Small fonts.  The "i" and the "n" blurred into an "r".  I nearly fainted myself!
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Gene DiGennaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #53 on: 10/11/2010 07:14 PM »
Wow! I nearly fainted when I saw Wayne Hale post.

Old eyes.  Small fonts.  The "i" and the "n" blurred into an "r".  I nearly fainted myself!

That'll teach ya not to eat in cheap restuarants!

Offline Pheogh

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #54 on: 10/11/2010 07:43 PM »
anyone know where I can get the transcript from the telecon today?

I would like to ask Wayne Hale what he thinks of Sen. Nelsons comment re. "if heavy lift based on existing  shuttle and CxP assets can't be built today for $11 Bil then we might want to reconsider if that's something NASA should be doing at all" para-phrasing of course.

Offline rdale

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #55 on: 10/11/2010 10:10 PM »
anyone know where I can get the transcript from the telecon today?

Uhhh, it's not going to be on Wayne Hale's blog. You might post a new thread.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #56 on: 10/11/2010 10:44 PM »
     {pain}

     Just when I was kinda-sorta-starting to believe (against most logic) the relentless charges that the Augustine Commission was too pessimistic, that the hardware/budget/timeline picture is better than it looks ... Wayne Hale goes and pours water on those hopes.
 
      Thank you very, very much for your candor.
     -Alex

That's not how I read it.. I'm honestly not sure what to make of Wayne's Blog.

Does he feel like a lot of effort was wasted on options that could never fit in the budget and that the commission should have spent more time coming up with, and making sure they had the numbers right on options that could fit in the budget???

If I may be so bold, he may be tired of the second guessing by everyone. 

He may be tired of the constant change in direction. 

He may be tired of the promise of one thing, only to be shot down in reality because those in power do not deliver. 

He may be likely tired of "doing more with less"

He may be tired of essentially being told to explore the universe for less than 19 billion a year but at the same time having to fund everything else on NASA's plate.

He may be tired of not being able to leave LEO in 40 years but hearing that "Mars is the ultimate goal" for the duration of some of his co-workers lives yet never seeing any real progress. 
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 10:45 PM by OV-106 »
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline marsavian

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #57 on: 10/12/2010 09:02 AM »
anyone know where I can get the transcript from the telecon today?

I would like to ask Wayne Hale what he thinks of Sen. Nelsons comment re. "if heavy lift based on existing  shuttle and CxP assets can't be built today for $11 Bil then we might want to reconsider if that's something NASA should be doing at all" para-phrasing of course.

http://www.cbsnews.com/network/news/space/home/spacenews/files/ceb32821135eca04378b5a360ef0d46a-83.html

"What is in this bill is eleven-and-a-half billion dollars over the next six years, anticipated, even though it's a three-year authorization, for development and testing of a heavy lift rocket," he said. "Now if we can't develop a new rocket for eleven-and-a-half billion dollars, building on a lot of the technologies that were already developed in spending nine billion (on the Constellation program's Ares rockets), if we can't do it for that, then we ought to question whether or not we can build a rocket."

Offline madscientist197

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #58 on: 10/12/2010 09:16 AM »
I think OV-106 may be close, but I suspect some other issues simmering as well. Wayne may be dragging things out a little, but in the interim it should at least provide the impetus for a more interesting discussion than if he came out with a singular comprehensive tome.

I can't wait for the next installment.
John

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #59 on: 10/12/2010 01:37 PM »
(1)I'm honestly not sure what to make of Wayne's Blog.

(2)Does he feel like a lot of effort was wasted on options that could never fit in the budget and that the commission should have spent more time ... making sure they had the numbers right ...???

(1) Well, he's saying several slightly different things, which I'll elaborate on.

(2) I dunno about him, but I know that a lot of effort was wasted.  The key proof of this, in my mind, is the front and center presentation of BTDT as a valid reason for government policy.  Once that completely erroneous axiom is accepted, it opens the gate for justification of future government policy only upon the criteria of newness.  As I've mentioned, "Rox in space? New, new, new!"

The wasted effort went to hashing out, in elaborate detail, the costs of uber-expensive possible missions, largely to provide fodder for the master debaters of policy.  Either that, or to give some substance to the forward looking statements of insider corporate interests, which I suspect is more to the point.  Either that, or our policymakers are deliberately satisfying that British prediction that Americans will try all the wrong things before accepting the right thing.

Causuistry: The sophistry of causality; a form of deliberate cognitive dissonance where the same data point is used to argue in favor of one course of action, and agains a different, but essentially similar, course of action.  Two examples:  The alcoholic parent disapproving of his kid wanting to go out drinking.  Finding out where Phobos came from is very important; the Moon's origin, not at all.

Per Wayne: "the committee was snookered by OMB".  I'd add, the OMB was snookered by the political direction it was given, in that, in all probability, it's numbers were also suspect on certain fundamental levels.  This is me looking at what comes out of the black box of OMB, and attempting to understand the working process within that black box.  There I go again, but what else does Wayne mean when he sez: "the financial estimates made for the committee are highly suspect"?

He goes on to say: "at the very least the committee had ensured that NASA would get a significant budget increase".  As I've said, and what must be true, government activity is deliberate conscious effort.  It is goal seeking and it is fundamentally teleological.

Picking on HEFT again from this standpoint, and just because it is fresh in my mind.  From the recommendations: Focus technology development on near term exploration goals (NEO by 2025); Do not develop a dedicated ISS ERV.  If the goal of NEO by 2025 is accepted, then the recommendation of no dedicated ERV might very well result from the data generated in seeking to prove the feasibility of that goal.  But that is no recommendation to make that visit; it is the goal and purpose of the report in the first place.

I would say that a purpose of the OMB report was, not surprisingly, to get an increase in NASA's budget.  There's nothing wrong with overtly asking for an increase with the support of logical data, and everything wrong about hiding purpose behind false data.  OMB was snookered.

Finally getting back to TrueBlue.  It seems that the A-Comm was given a menu of choices to choose from.  In part, what we need is the creation of the proper choice.  That is, what we need is a proper path towards colonization.  What we're getting instead is fireworks and BFR's.  The clear outcome is that, for the forseeable future, we stay on planet.

He may be tired of not being able to leave LEO in 40 years but hearing that "Mars is the ultimate goal" for the duration of some of his co-workers lives yet never seeing any real progress.

Naaaah.  Ya think?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

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