The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.
As regards, "Anything concrete": four years ago the People's Daily (February 14, 2006) reported on the unveiling of the logo for the CLEP (China Lunar Exploration Program). Of particular note relevant to this thread, the logo "depicts a pair of footprints on the moon, symbolizing the dream of lunar exploration."http://china.org.cn/english/scitech/157982.htm
Quote from: Danderman on 02/05/2010 03:51 pmThe Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.Yes, that looks essentially correct. A less pejorative way to phrase it would be, "The Chinese plan is to systematically retire risk on a sustainable schedule, take pride in doing so, and rely on future technology developments to meet overall program objectives."Doesn't it sound better phrased that way? Wouldn't it be neat if the U.S. had a plan like that?
Although they fly less often, the Chinese will in a few years have the same capability the USSR had in the 1970s. That includes the possibility of flying a modified Shenzhou in a Zond-like loop around Luna. I think the pace behind this is as much determined by the need to gain experience, build institutions and a team as well as the basic technologies. How long would it take to go from this point to building up a real lunar program is what interests me. They would need a HLV, I think, so that would take maybe 7-8 years beyond the CZ-5. Then the lander and in-space transportation, think this could be done as fast. Give 2-3 years for testing it all out and they could be on the lunar surface by 2024. Maybe if they developed a crash program now this could be a few years sooner.
The declared payload capabilities of the CZ-5 family mean that if they wanted to, the Chinese could launch a full Shenzhou on a circumlunar trip - the Soviets had to omit the orbital module to give the Zond/L-1 craft.There has been some talk of the Chinese flying a modified CZ-5 in their literature. This would be a tandem-staged vehicle, with the large LOX/LH stage as the second stage and the first stage being a LOX/kerosene one - rather like a beefed-up Saturn-1B first stage: a payload capability of 35 tonnes to LEO has been discussed in connection with this vehicle.This could be used for a manned lunar landing programme. Certainly any discussions which the Chinese have published about manned lunar landings imply the use of CZ-5 class vehicles with multiple rendezvous, not the development of a vehicle in the N-1/Saturn-5Nova classes.
OK, only the first page of the article got posted a minute ago: it is seven pages long so pages 2-7 should be here ...........
Quote from: Danderman on 02/05/2010 03:51 pmThe Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.I have tended to describe the pace of the Chinese space programme as being like a dead snail that's super-glued to the floor. And that goes back the their early 1970s programme!Once the Chinese start to fly the Tiangong modules it will be interesting to see how the Shenzhou schedule changes: maybe 1-2 flights a year?Although used as an unmanned spacelab on its first flight, the Chinese plan seems to be to use Tiangong as a cargo freighter for the larger space stations structures which will be based upon the ~20-25 tonnes modules. Indeed, in this role, successive Tiangong freighters could be used for orbital maintenance of the future modular space stations.Sorry, got side-tracked from manned lunar considerations there!!!
Quote from: Phillip Clark on 02/06/2010 04:42 pmOK, only the first page of the article got posted a minute ago: it is seven pages long so pages 2-7 should be here ...........That would be an article I would love to read in English. The photos are VERY interesting.
If you compare China's program to the US/Russian ones it's actually not going so slow if you think of it in terms of milestones reached.2003: first manned flight2007: first lunar orbiter2008: first space walk2011 (est): limited (Salyut-like) space station2014 (est): CZ-5 (25 mt LEO)Although they fly less often, the Chinese will in a few years have the same capability the USSR had in the 1970s. That includes the possibility of flying a modified Shenzhou in a Zond-like loop around Luna. I think the pace behind this is as much determined by the need to gain experience, build institutions and a team as well as the basic technologies. How long would it take to go from this point to building up a real lunar program is what interests me. They would need a HLV, I think, so that would take maybe 7-8 years beyond the CZ-5. Then the lander and in-space transportation, think this could be done as fast. Give 2-3 years for testing it all out and they could be on the lunar surface by 2024. Maybe if they developed a crash program now this could be a few years sooner. At any rate, Ouyang Ziyuan is the chief of the lunar program, and his primary specialism is geology:http://www.astronautix.com/astros/ouyiyuan.htmSupposedly he is big on prospects for utilizing lunar resources.
2011 (est): limited (Salyut-like) space station
NASA sees China's strategy for a manned lunar landing as launch vehicle intensive. While America's notional Constellation moon project centers on a single - and still unbuilt - Ares-V "superheavy" lift booster for a direct ascent to the moon and two "lunar orbit rendezvous" operations, China will likely opt for two complex "Earth orbit rendezvous" maneuvers.This will require four "Long March V" rockets - in the same class as the Pentagon's Delta IV heavy lift launch vehicles - to put their cosmonauts on the moon. Launched in pairs over a two-week period from China's new Wenchang Space Center on the South China Sea island of Hainan, the four Long March Vs will each loft 26-ton payloads into low Earth orbits. The first mission will orbit the rocket for the translunar journey which will then join a second payload of an empty lunar module (LM) and its lunar-orbit rocket motor. Those first two unmanned payloads will rendezvous in Earth orbit and then fire off for the quarter-million-mile journey to the moon.Once the unmanned LM is in a stable lunar orbit, the second pair of missions will be launched into Earth's orbit; the first with another translunar rocket motor and the second with a combined payload comprising the lunar orbiting module, a modified service module, an Earth re-entry module and the manned Shenzhou capsule with three Chinese cosmonauts.