Author Topic: China's manned Moon plans  (Read 99628 times)

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #40 on: 02/07/2010 10:00 PM »
Too bad NASA did not hire someone who could do the job.

Even with pretty severe stroke damage, I can do better than that.
For example, two manned statements, one from 2000:

http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/fpspace/2006-May/019800.html

"The Moon Project's ultimate objective is establishing on the Moon a permanent outpost of our country's own, the mining of the lunar surface's serviceable mineral resources and shipping them back to the Earth, and THE CARRYING ON OF A MORE THOROUGH AND WIDESPREAD DEEP SPACE SURVEY IN THE FUTURE

And more recently:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-12/29/content_9239369.htm

"ultimately they want to build an observatory on the surface"

CAPS, in other words. How China got hold of the CAPS study is another question. They can bother me about that if they want, but they better be sure to bring their wallets.

« Last Edit: 02/11/2010 12:54 AM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #41 on: 02/07/2010 10:03 PM »
Now that we have that straight, from authoritative public sources, when Chinese space leaders talk about the 2017 Moon landing, they're talking about CE3, not a manned one.

So the problem is to back engineer how Chinese space leaders intend to accomplish their goals with the CZ5 launch family.

In the most economical and straightforward manner.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 10:09 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #42 on: 02/07/2010 10:11 PM »
Nope, that's not a "Chinese-originated image"--it was originated by ME.  Actually, to be precise, it originated at NASA.  I simply acquired it and scanned it:
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1231/2
See also the attached file.

On the other hand, I have oreviously been involved with a similar situation.  In the early 1990s Jane's Intelligence Review carried a review of the FSW programme from me and a few months later the review appeared in a Chinese magazine.   I only found out about this when I asked for a translation of the apparently-detailed article, only to be told "it's yours"!!

Always fun when people quote your own work back to you without knowing.

Always maddening when the quote your own work back to you and claim it as their own.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #43 on: 02/07/2010 10:24 PM »
And the latest:

http://spaceflight.esa.int/strategy/pages/Home__Events__Why_the_moon__1_6_Tangming.cfm

Blackstar, I doubt if that last illustration is one of yours.
Is it the CE3 return ship, or....

Someone want to work out the relative diameters of engines and tanks?
« Last Edit: 02/08/2010 12:03 AM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #44 on: 02/07/2010 10:28 PM »
Anybody else find it interesting that China's planning on a lunar landing using only EELV-class rockets, while many in this forum claim that it isn't possible to do such a thing without an HLV?

Not really.  I don't know of anybody--maybe you do--who claims that it is not "possible" to send humans to the Moon using only EELV-class rockets.  The question is what is the "best" method of doing that. 

Note that launching multiple EELV-class rockets creates some significant limitations on the mass that you can land, and also imposes some major constraints.  For instance, it requires high reliability and a robust ground infrastructure (such as multiple pads) so that you can launch all these separate payloads in a short period of time and link them all up.  Is that the best way of doing the mission?  Depends upon how you want to define "best."

An Apollo class mission probably is very possible with just EELV class LVs.

It could be certainly be done in the US as there are no less then 5 launch sites for EELV class vehicles in the US but I don't know what China has to work with.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #45 on: 02/07/2010 10:54 PM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

The trouble that NASA has been having getting beyond LEO really shows how amazing Apollo really was for it's time and any other.  What I took away from last Monday's budget change to NASA was just difficult lunar travel is for any country.

Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #46 on: 02/07/2010 11:58 PM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

Never heard of DIRECT, I see.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

The trouble that NASA has been having getting beyond LEO really shows how amazing Apollo really was for it's time and any other.  What I took away from last Monday's budget change to NASA was just difficult lunar travel is for any country.

What I took away from last Monday's budget was how much money has been wasted by misguided analysis and by bogus political engineering over the last several years.
Bounce strikes. To be continued...
« Last Edit: 02/08/2010 12:02 AM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #47 on: 02/08/2010 12:00 AM »
Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 

Please tell that to the SFF and manned Mars enthusiasts.
And to some of the imaginary "launch companies" as well.

Offline cd-slam

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #48 on: 02/08/2010 12:36 AM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

Try 2015.
But I wish most people should remember that the Chinese manned space program is an integrated part of the People's Liberation Army. Their primary focus right now is not the conquest of space or the Moon, it is the conquest (er, return) of Taiwan.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #49 on: 02/08/2010 03:20 PM »
Their primary focus right now is not the conquest of space or the Moon, it is the conquest (er, return) of Taiwan.

I'd have to say the primary focus right now for many young Chinesse men is finding a wife/girlfriend.

No one is particularly interested in upsetting the prosperity, neither on Taiwan or the Mainland. The only way that problems will ensue is if Taiwan claims seafood rights, seabed mineral rights, or prevents navigation. I expect that some kind of modus vivandi will be arrived at.

I also expect that many women from Taiwan will find they can do better in the marriage market on the mainland. That is probably true for some women in several bordering countries.

We'll see, though it should be noted that horny young men can get pretty crazy.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 12:54 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #50 on: 02/08/2010 04:14 PM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

Never heard of DIRECT, I see.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

Well there are several holes big enough to fly a battle star through in theory that China's economic miracle is indefinatly sustainable.

I feel the history we seen with Japan's economy will repeat it's self with China.
Japan unlike China took quality control very seriously to the point that some modern QM terms are Japanese words.

I'm already beginning to see more items manufactured in places like India,Malaysia,and Vietnam even though the average cost per hour is higher there.

Plus lets not forget rising energy costs as an issue.
If oil was still over the $100 a barrel mark and it will eventually go back to those prices.
Mexico for example becomes a cheaper place to manufacture.
« Last Edit: 02/08/2010 04:15 PM by Patchouli »

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #51 on: 02/09/2010 01:20 AM »
John Logsdon suggest 2030 is a reasonable goal. I tend to agree that if the Chinese really want to do it, sometime in the 2030s is quite possible.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/05/moon-base-alpha/

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #52 on: 02/09/2010 01:28 AM »
"The Russians are the leaders in low-Earth-orbit space today," says Manber.

I wonder what criteria he uses?  Mass to orbit?  People to orbit?  Person-hours in orbit?  Payloads launched?  How many active spacecraft does Russia currently have in LEO?

But a more interesting issue is whether it makes sense to think in terms of destination goals anymore.  Here's a book about that subject:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1557/1
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 01:30 AM by Blackstar »

Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #53 on: 02/09/2010 04:05 AM »
Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 

Please tell that to the SFF and manned Mars enthusiasts.
And to some of the imaginary "launch companies" as well.

OK, I'll bite: are Boeing and Lockheed imaginary launch companies?

Sorry, wrong thread, please ignore this!

« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 04:09 AM by Danderman »

Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #54 on: 02/09/2010 04:08 AM »
Try 2015.
But I wish most people should remember that the Chinese manned space program is an integrated part of the People's Liberation Army. Their primary focus right now is not the conquest of space or the Moon, it is the conquest (er, return) of Taiwan.

That is well underway today, as the economies of Taiwan and the mainland are becoming intertwined. I suspect that any F-16s that we were to sell to Taiwan would eventually be shipped to the mainland.
Many Taiwanese, but not all, are eager for closer relations with the mainland. There are already parts of Taiwan where mainland money is accepted. 




Offline Khadgars

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #55 on: 02/09/2010 04:42 AM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

Never heard of DIRECT, I see.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

Well there are several holes big enough to fly a battle star through in theory that China's economic miracle is indefinatly sustainable.

I feel the history we seen with Japan's economy will repeat it's self with China.
Japan unlike China took quality control very seriously to the point that some modern QM terms are Japanese words.

I'm already beginning to see more items manufactured in places like India,Malaysia,and Vietnam even though the average cost per hour is higher there.

Plus lets not forget rising energy costs as an issue.
If oil was still over the $100 a barrel mark and it will eventually go back to those prices.
Mexico for example becomes a cheaper place to manufacture.

Excellent points, some how every one seems to believe China will grow at 10%+ indefinitely.

Even better point, as Peak Oil is reached, manufacturing something overseas and shipping it 1,000's of miles across the ocean will become a lot less appealing.

Besides, once the Chinese Yuan is allowed to rise, huge portions of China's manufacturing base will lose their bottom lines.  That is such a massive advantage and I don't see it being allowed much longer.

http://www.nam.org/TradeData/US-ChinaFXRates.aspx

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #56 on: 02/09/2010 04:55 AM »
If you compare China's program to the US/Russian ones it's actually not going so slow if you think of it in terms of milestones reached.

The Chinese manned program is progressing a lot more slowly than I expected.  After their first manned flight, I thought they might be on a pace more like that of the US program's after Alan Shepard's first spaceflight. 

I hope the Chinese do manage to send humans to the moon in this decade.  Since we're giving up, I'd like to see somebody do it at least!  And maybe it'll get this country moving again.


Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #57 on: 02/09/2010 05:16 AM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


On another note, hints about progress on soft landing capability (Chang'e 3)

Expert: China's space technology close moon landing capability
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90881/6890753.html

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #58 on: 02/09/2010 05:30 AM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


If so, then China's manned program is not nearly as ambitious as I thought.

Offline ChrisSpaceCH

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #59 on: 02/09/2010 05:44 AM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


If so, then China's manned program is not nearly as ambitious as I thought.

No, it's not. I've tried to make that point several times.

China's manned space program (or Project 921, as they call it) was mainly pushed forwards by Jiang Zemin during the 1990s. He basically achieved his goal with Shenzhou 5 in 2003. However, that was also more or less the year he was ousted as Premier and chairman of the Central Military Comission.

I think his sucessors are far less enthusiastic about manned space-flight (which, from what I hear, never had that much support in the Politbureau other than Jiang and his sycophants). This is a factor people here never seem to grasp. Everyone thinks that China will grow indefinately and that China is hell-bent on conquering space. I think the opposite is true, and that the current leadership is much more concerned with problems on Earth (such as access to ressources, which explains the huge and often overlooked Chinese involvement in Africa).

BTW, regarding the aging pyramid, China is worse off than many European countries. That alone would indicate that China's economic might will eventually start shrinking, at the latest around mid-century.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 06:48 AM by ChrisSpaceCH »

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