Author Topic: China's manned Moon plans  (Read 99627 times)

Offline E.P. Grondine

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China's manned Moon plans
« on: 02/04/2010 10:23 PM »
There was a topic on this over at general interest, where those with little knowledge were spouting their opinions, I though I'd start a topic header here.


Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #1 on: 02/04/2010 10:26 PM »
Lots of speculation on this; nothing concrete. The Chinese currently hanve their hands full with a pretty ambitious unmanned lunar program and space station program. They are also busy developing their new HLLV. Though I can see how the next people who land on the moon might be Chinese, this is very far off by most reliable estimates - maybe by the late 2020s-2030s. Still pretty ambitious and impressive nevertheless.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2010 10:31 PM by spacex »

Offline sdsds

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #2 on: 02/05/2010 03:31 PM »
As regards, "Anything concrete":  four years ago the People's Daily (February 14, 2006) reported on the unveiling of the logo for the CLEP (China Lunar Exploration Program).  Of particular note relevant to this thread, the logo "depicts a pair of footprints on the moon, symbolizing the dream of lunar exploration."

http://china.org.cn/english/scitech/157982.htm

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Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #3 on: 02/05/2010 03:51 PM »
The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.


Offline sdsds

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #4 on: 02/05/2010 04:05 PM »
The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.

Yes, that looks essentially correct.  A less pejorative way to phrase it would be, "The Chinese plan is to systematically retire risk on a sustainable schedule, take pride in doing so, and rely on future technology developments to meet overall program objectives."

Doesn't it sound better phrased that way?  Wouldn't it be neat if the U.S. had a plan like that?
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Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #5 on: 02/05/2010 07:10 PM »
As regards, "Anything concrete":  four years ago the People's Daily (February 14, 2006) reported on the unveiling of the logo for the CLEP (China Lunar Exploration Program).  Of particular note relevant to this thread, the logo "depicts a pair of footprints on the moon, symbolizing the dream of lunar exploration."

http://china.org.cn/english/scitech/157982.htm



That's interesting but only symbolic and probably not substantial. I would imagine many space agencies around the world have aspirations of eventually setting foot on the moon.

The Chinese seem to be going at their own pace and in no rush at all to attempt something like that. Any informed observer will realize that their program has progressed in a (very) cautious way, systematically acquiring more capabilities and experience through comparatively few missions (unlike NASA, Soviets). A prerequisite for any manned lunar mission would be very low-risk (a lot safer than Apollo). Given that, it's safe to rule out that they will approve any potentially high-risk mission any time soon.

It is in fact quite telling how no official has mentioned any plans for a manned lunar mission; yet many people outside of the country (e.g. Griffin) have conjured up very unrealistic theories about an imminent manned lunar mission.
« Last Edit: 02/05/2010 07:22 PM by spacex »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #6 on: 02/05/2010 07:31 PM »
The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.

I have tended to describe the pace of the Chinese space programme as being like a dead snail that's super-glued to the floor.   And that goes back the their early 1970s programme!

Once the Chinese start to fly the Tiangong modules it will be interesting to see how the Shenzhou schedule changes: maybe 1-2 flights a year?

Although used as an unmanned spacelab on its first flight, the Chinese plan seems to be to use Tiangong as a cargo freighter for the larger space stations structures which will be based upon the ~20-25 tonnes modules.   Indeed, in this role, successive Tiangong freighters could be used for orbital maintenance of the future modular space stations.

Sorry, got side-tracked from manned lunar considerations there!!!

Offline sdsds

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #7 on: 02/06/2010 04:30 AM »
As regards the pace of the Chinese space program, it has been reported that, 'The chief of U.S. Strategic Command, Gen. Kevin Chilton, told reporters Nov. 3, "With regard to China's [space] capabilities, I think anyone who's familiar with this business ... would have to be absolutely amazed at the advancement that China has made in such a short period of time, whether that be in their unmanned program or the manned program."'

http://lunarnetworks.blogspot.com/2010/01/china-space-program-shoots-for-moon.html

Assuming the report is correct, must we not take the opinion of Gen. Chilton as being that of someone well-informed?
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Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #8 on: 02/06/2010 06:00 AM »
The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.

Yes, that looks essentially correct.  A less pejorative way to phrase it would be, "The Chinese plan is to systematically retire risk on a sustainable schedule, take pride in doing so, and rely on future technology developments to meet overall program objectives."

Doesn't it sound better phrased that way?  Wouldn't it be neat if the U.S. had a plan like that?

I would agree, except for the "launch every three years" part.  There is actually an additional risk for such a low workflow.


Offline marcus79

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #9 on: 02/06/2010 11:01 AM »
If you compare China's program to the US/Russian ones it's actually not going so slow if you think of it in terms of milestones reached.

2003: first manned flight
2007: first lunar orbiter
2008: first space walk
2011 (est): limited (Salyut-like) space station
2014 (est): CZ-5 (25 mt LEO)

Although they fly less often, the Chinese will in a few years have the same capability the USSR had in the 1970s. That includes the possibility of flying a modified Shenzhou in a Zond-like loop around Luna. I think the pace behind this is as much determined by the need to gain experience, build institutions and a team as well as the basic technologies.

How long would it take to go from this point to building up a real lunar program is what interests me. They would need a HLV, I think, so that would take maybe 7-8 years beyond the CZ-5. Then the lander and in-space transportation, think this could be done as fast. Give 2-3 years for testing it all out and they could be on the lunar surface by 2024. Maybe if they developed a crash program now this could be a few years sooner.

At any rate, Ouyang Ziyuan is the chief of the lunar program, and his primary specialism is geology:

http://www.astronautix.com/astros/ouyiyuan.htm

Supposedly he is big on prospects for utilizing lunar resources.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #10 on: 02/06/2010 11:39 AM »

Although they fly less often, the Chinese will in a few years have the same capability the USSR had in the 1970s. That includes the possibility of flying a modified Shenzhou in a Zond-like loop around Luna. I think the pace behind this is as much determined by the need to gain experience, build institutions and a team as well as the basic technologies.

How long would it take to go from this point to building up a real lunar program is what interests me. They would need a HLV, I think, so that would take maybe 7-8 years beyond the CZ-5. Then the lander and in-space transportation, think this could be done as fast. Give 2-3 years for testing it all out and they could be on the lunar surface by 2024. Maybe if they developed a crash program now this could be a few years sooner.

The declared payload capabilities of the CZ-5 family mean that if they wanted to, the Chinese could launch a full Shenzhou on a circumlunar trip - the Soviets had to omit the orbital module to give the Zond/L-1 craft.

There has been some talk of the Chinese flying a modified CZ-5 in their literature.   This would be a tandem-staged vehicle, with the large LOX/LH stage as the second stage and the first stage being a LOX/kerosene one - rather like a beefed-up Saturn-1B first stage: a payload capability of 35 tonnes to LEO has been discussed in connection with this vehicle.

This could be used for a manned lunar landing programme.   Certainly any discussions which the Chinese have published about manned lunar landings imply the use of CZ-5 class vehicles with multiple rendezvous, not the development of a vehicle in the N-1/Saturn-5Nova classes.

Offline marcus79

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #11 on: 02/06/2010 02:00 PM »

The declared payload capabilities of the CZ-5 family mean that if they wanted to, the Chinese could launch a full Shenzhou on a circumlunar trip - the Soviets had to omit the orbital module to give the Zond/L-1 craft.

There has been some talk of the Chinese flying a modified CZ-5 in their literature.   This would be a tandem-staged vehicle, with the large LOX/LH stage as the second stage and the first stage being a LOX/kerosene one - rather like a beefed-up Saturn-1B first stage: a payload capability of 35 tonnes to LEO has been discussed in connection with this vehicle.

This could be used for a manned lunar landing programme.   Certainly any discussions which the Chinese have published about manned lunar landings imply the use of CZ-5 class vehicles with multiple rendezvous, not the development of a vehicle in the N-1/Saturn-5Nova classes.

So presumably this would save them some time in getting the initial program started? It would be interesting to see how far they could go with this kind of approach. I remember studies from the 1990s at JSC that allowed lunar missions with one Shuttle and 1-2 Protons/Ariane 5/EELV/Titan IV class launchers. Not sure how viable they were, with the open-cockpit lander and lunar surface rendezvous with a inflatable living quarter.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #12 on: 02/06/2010 04:37 PM »
If I can work out how to do this, I am attaching the .jpg files of a Chinese article which I have been sent which reviews ways of sending men to the Moon.   Because this was sent to me as a set of image files I have not been able to use Babel Fish or anything similar to translate what is being said.

There is also a Chimnese-originated image showing how four CZ-5s can be used for a manned lunar landing.



Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #13 on: 02/06/2010 04:42 PM »
OK, only the first page of the article got posted a minute ago: it is seven pages long so pages 2-7 should be here ...........

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #14 on: 02/06/2010 04:58 PM »
OK, only the first page of the article got posted a minute ago: it is seven pages long so pages 2-7 should be here ...........

That would be an article I would love to read in English.  The photos are VERY interesting.
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Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #15 on: 02/06/2010 05:02 PM »
This damn keyboard bounce is frustrating.

I noted that lack of shown fuel transfer in the 60 ton station topic. Which does lead one to wonder if China plans to use self contained station keeping/supply vessels, and if they do plan to go this route, then it may indicate their Moon architecture.

The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.

I have tended to describe the pace of the Chinese space programme as being like a dead snail that's super-glued to the floor.   And that goes back the their early 1970s programme!

Once the Chinese start to fly the Tiangong modules it will be interesting to see how the Shenzhou schedule changes: maybe 1-2 flights a year?

Although used as an unmanned spacelab on its first flight, the Chinese plan seems to be to use Tiangong as a cargo freighter for the larger space stations structures which will be based upon the ~20-25 tonnes modules.   Indeed, in this role, successive Tiangong freighters could be used for orbital maintenance of the future modular space stations.

Sorry, got side-tracked from manned lunar considerations there!!!

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #16 on: 02/06/2010 05:12 PM »
OK, only the first page of the article got posted a minute ago: it is seven pages long so pages 2-7 should be here ...........
That would be an article I would love to read in English.  The photos are VERY interesting.

The hope implicit in posting the article is that someone will be kind enough to post a translation of the bits which relate to the Chinese plans - no need to translate the reviews of other people's programmes!

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #17 on: 02/06/2010 05:46 PM »
Aggravating keyboard bounce. A better way to think of it:

2003: Test of launch and re-entry of SZ manned spaceship
SZ-6: Test of SZ life support
SZ-7: Further test of life support, space suit, hatches, de-pressure  and re-pressure systems
2011 (est): Test of docking

CE 1.5  - improved imaging systems
CE 2 - soft landing and roving test

2015-2020
CE 3 (2017 est?) - Test of CZ5 Moon variant, Earth re-entry data test module
60 ton station or ISS participation - Closed loop life support

2020-2025
test of manned Earth Re-entry SZ variant - Zond/Apollo 8 type mission
manned soft landing and re-entry

2025-2030 (est)
operational base

If you compare China's program to the US/Russian ones it's actually not going so slow if you think of it in terms of milestones reached.

2003: first manned flight
2007: first lunar orbiter
2008: first space walk
2011 (est): limited (Salyut-like) space station
2014 (est): CZ-5 (25 mt LEO)

Although they fly less often, the Chinese will in a few years have the same capability the USSR had in the 1970s. That includes the possibility of flying a modified Shenzhou in a Zond-like loop around Luna. I think the pace behind this is as much determined by the need to gain experience, build institutions and a team as well as the basic technologies.

How long would it take to go from this point to building up a real lunar program is what interests me. They would need a HLV, I think, so that would take maybe 7-8 years beyond the CZ-5. Then the lander and in-space transportation, think this could be done as fast. Give 2-3 years for testing it all out and they could be on the lunar surface by 2024. Maybe if they developed a crash program now this could be a few years sooner.

At any rate, Ouyang Ziyuan is the chief of the lunar program, and his primary specialism is geology:

http://www.astronautix.com/astros/ouyiyuan.htm

Supposedly he is big on prospects for utilizing lunar resources.

Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #18 on: 02/06/2010 05:58 PM »
2011 (est): limited (Salyut-like) space station


There are no plans for a Salyut class space station in 2011. Instead, the Chinese plan a Soyuz-class module with limited capabilities. The Salyut class module would require the 25 ton LV.

Offline neilh

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #19 on: 02/06/2010 10:17 PM »
Anybody else find it interesting that China's planning on a lunar landing using only EELV-class rockets, while many in this forum claim that it isn't possible to do such a thing without an HLV?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/08/china-eyes-high-ground//print/
http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=24660
Quote
NASA sees China's strategy for a manned lunar landing as launch vehicle intensive. While America's notional Constellation moon project centers on a single - and still unbuilt - Ares-V "superheavy" lift booster for a direct ascent to the moon and two "lunar orbit rendezvous" operations, China will likely opt for two complex "Earth orbit rendezvous" maneuvers.

This will require four "Long March V" rockets - in the same class as the Pentagon's Delta IV heavy lift launch vehicles - to put their cosmonauts on the moon. Launched in pairs over a two-week period from China's new Wenchang Space Center on the South China Sea island of Hainan, the four Long March Vs will each loft 26-ton payloads into low Earth orbits. The first mission will orbit the rocket for the translunar journey which will then join a second payload of an empty lunar module (LM) and its lunar-orbit rocket motor. Those first two unmanned payloads will rendezvous in Earth orbit and then fire off for the quarter-million-mile journey to the moon.

Once the unmanned LM is in a stable lunar orbit, the second pair of missions will be launched into Earth's orbit; the first with another translunar rocket motor and the second with a combined payload comprising the lunar orbiting module, a modified service module, an Earth re-entry module and the manned Shenzhou capsule with three Chinese cosmonauts.
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Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #20 on: 02/06/2010 10:26 PM »
This is clearly only fantasy. You can tell the author, Tkacik, is really trying to hype up their capabilities and not taking into consideration that they do not have the political will do undertake such a thing.

Anybody else find it interesting that China's planning on a lunar landing using only EELV-class rockets, while many in this forum claim that it isn't possible to do such a thing without an HLV?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/08/china-eyes-high-ground//print/
http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=24660
Quote
NASA sees China's strategy for a manned lunar landing as launch vehicle intensive. While America's notional Constellation moon project centers on a single - and still unbuilt - Ares-V "superheavy" lift booster for a direct ascent to the moon and two "lunar orbit rendezvous" operations, China will likely opt for two complex "Earth orbit rendezvous" maneuvers.

This will require four "Long March V" rockets - in the same class as the Pentagon's Delta IV heavy lift launch vehicles - to put their cosmonauts on the moon. Launched in pairs over a two-week period from China's new Wenchang Space Center on the South China Sea island of Hainan, the four Long March Vs will each loft 26-ton payloads into low Earth orbits. The first mission will orbit the rocket for the translunar journey which will then join a second payload of an empty lunar module (LM) and its lunar-orbit rocket motor. Those first two unmanned payloads will rendezvous in Earth orbit and then fire off for the quarter-million-mile journey to the moon.

Once the unmanned LM is in a stable lunar orbit, the second pair of missions will be launched into Earth's orbit; the first with another translunar rocket motor and the second with a combined payload comprising the lunar orbiting module, a modified service module, an Earth re-entry module and the manned Shenzhou capsule with three Chinese cosmonauts.
« Last Edit: 02/06/2010 10:30 PM by spacex »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #21 on: 02/06/2010 10:29 PM »
Interesting but wouldn't Shenzhou need serious upgrades to perform chase down of the ascent vehicle and TEI?
TEI on Apollo was around 1,076 m/s while Shenzhou I belive only has a delta V of about 400m/s.

Offline blackjack

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #22 on: 02/07/2010 01:55 AM »
Nearly everyone knows the three steps of Chinese lunar mission--tracking, landing, returning. But few people knows the "big" three steps--probing, landing(manned), quartering. 

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #23 on: 02/07/2010 02:00 AM »
CZ-5 will not be used in manned lunar mission. According to the report of CNSA, two kind of new engines will be developed. One is 500t(sea level) kerosene engine and another one is 150t(sea level) H/O engine, I think they will be used for manned moon plans. A intersting thing is it seems they are staged combustion cycle according to the paper.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 02:03 AM by blackjack »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #24 on: 02/07/2010 02:10 AM »
CZ-5 will not be used in manned lunar mission. According to the report of CNSA, two kind of new engines will be developed. One is 500t(sea level) kerosene engine and another one is 150t(sea level) H/O engine, I think they will be used for manned moon plans. A intersting thing is it seems they are staged combustion cycle according to the paper.

And your Chinese source for making such an authoritative statement about the non-use of the CZ-5 in the Chinese manned lunar programme is ............. ?   Of course you contradict yourself when your first and third sentences are compared.

In the plan as outlined (and of course it could change drastically over the next 10-15 years) the lunar Shenzhou would only have to perform LOR with the lander's ascent stage and TEI - rather like the Soyuz with a beefed up service/instrument module for the L-3 programme.   So, why cannot the Chinese simply do as the Soviets planned to do?

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #25 on: 02/07/2010 02:21 AM »
This is clearly only fantasy. You can tell the author, Tkacik, is really trying to hype up their capabilities and not taking into consideration that they do not have the political will do undertake such a thing.

China's space leadership presented both their intermediate Moon goals and long term Moon goals for the 2000 planning process. We are watching China's approved total plan being implemented now.

The next big decision point will be for the 2020 plans. What political decision China's people and political leaders make at that time depends on many factors.

One thing is fairly certain, based on current Chinese political thought: this is not a race for them, and they want to further engage internationally.

Again, there are many issues.



Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #26 on: 02/07/2010 02:38 AM »
There is also a Chinese-originated image showing how four CZ-5s can be used for a manned lunar landing.

Nope, that's not a "Chinese-originated image"--it was originated by ME.  Actually, to be precise, it originated at NASA.  I simply acquired it and scanned it:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1231/2

See also the attached file.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #27 on: 02/07/2010 02:55 AM »
This is clearly only fantasy. You can tell the author, Tkacik, is really trying to hype up their capabilities and not taking into consideration that they do not have the political will do undertake such a thing.

Yes.  A careful reading of the article shows a number of problems with it.  It's always worthwhile to ask some specific questions about the articles you read, such as:

-who are the sources of the information in the article?  Are their names provided?
-is the information firm, or speculative?
-does the information agree with other articles on the subject?
-is there any indication that the author is likely to have current knowledge about the subject?

Here's a good paragraph that illustrates some of the problems:

"Senior Chinese space officials have told their state media that China could be on the moon by 2022 at the outside. Other authoritative Chinese space engineers see a moon landing as a next step in the Tiangong program that will launch three Chinese space stations into Earth orbit between 2011 and 2015. In 2008, NASA scientists told the Bush White House that, with the technology currently available to the Chinese space program, Chinese cosmonauts could be on the moon by 2017. "

Look at the first sentence: "could be on the moon by 2022..."  Okay, "could" is not the same as "will be" and certainly is not the same as "plans to be."  In other words, senior Chinese space officials have said that they could do it--if anybody actually allowed them to do it.  This does not mean that they have an active manned lunar program, and in fact, there has never been any information indicating that they do have an active manned lunar program.  (It's also worth noting that the United States "could" be on the Moon by 2022 as well, if we were willing to spend the money.)

Look at the second sentence: "a next step in the Tiangong program that will launch three Chinese space stations into Earth orbit between 2011 and 2015."  Actually, the Chinese have publicly stated that the "next step" after Tiangong is to build a modular space station, NOT to go to the Moon.  In fact, their plans for 2010-2020 are careful and logical.  They're going to obtain rendezvous experience, increase their flight times, and then devote attention to building up a space station starting around the middle of this decade. 

Also, for both of these sentences, who are these "senior Chinese space officials" and "authoritative Chinese space engineers"?  Why doesn't the author provide their names?

Finally, look at that third sentence: "NASA scientists told the Bush White House..."  Who were these NASA scientists?  What are their names?

I don't mean to be overly critical of this article, only to point out that if you read it closely, it does not actually contain any NEW information.  And in fact, it contains some claims that are contradicted by information that the Chinese have already provided.  The Chinese have provided some good basic outlines of their human spaceflight program.  It's just that people who want to warn of the dangers of China prefer to ignore the information and make up fantasies that the Chinese are rushing to the Moon.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 02:56 AM by Blackstar »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #28 on: 02/07/2010 03:00 AM »
That would be an article I would love to read in English.  The photos are VERY interesting.

Actually, it looks like they grabbed all the photos from publicly accessible sources.  I don't see a single illustration that actually provides insight into their own program.  And because of that, I suspect that the article is simply an overview of how it is possible to reach the Moon, not how the Chinese themselves might actually do it.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 03:04 AM by Blackstar »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #29 on: 02/07/2010 03:03 AM »
Anybody else find it interesting that China's planning on a lunar landing using only EELV-class rockets, while many in this forum claim that it isn't possible to do such a thing without an HLV?

Not really.  I don't know of anybody--maybe you do--who claims that it is not "possible" to send humans to the Moon using only EELV-class rockets.  The question is what is the "best" method of doing that. 

Note that launching multiple EELV-class rockets creates some significant limitations on the mass that you can land, and also imposes some major constraints.  For instance, it requires high reliability and a robust ground infrastructure (such as multiple pads) so that you can launch all these separate payloads in a short period of time and link them all up.  Is that the best way of doing the mission?  Depends upon how you want to define "best."

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #30 on: 02/07/2010 03:10 AM »
Well put, Blackstar. If fact it is pretty clear that the entire piece is pretty rubbish.

Interestingly, he claims: "China will likely opt for two complex "Earth orbit rendezvous" maneuvers."

Ok, even it if it technically feasible, it is HIGHLY unlikely the Chinese would undertake such a risky multiple launch/rendezvous route.

The estimates of 2017 by NASA sources (umm who? Griffin's remark?) or "2022 at the outside" Tkacik suggests are pure balderdash and probably based on misinformation or poorly quoted sources. I would really like to see the source if they really exists.

In fact, reviewing Tkacik's other columns you can clearly see his very hawkish views in vastly overestimating their military capabilities and danger towards the United States.

This is clearly only fantasy. You can tell the author, Tkacik, is really trying to hype up their capabilities and not taking into consideration that they do not have the political will do undertake such a thing.

Yes.  A careful reading of the article shows a number of problems with it.  It's always worthwhile to ask some specific questions about the articles you read, such as:

-who are the sources of the information in the article?  Are their names provided?
-is the information firm, or speculative?
-does the information agree with other articles on the subject?
-is there any indication that the author is likely to have current knowledge about the subject?

Here's a good paragraph that illustrates some of the problems:

"Senior Chinese space officials have told their state media that China could be on the moon by 2022 at the outside. Other authoritative Chinese space engineers see a moon landing as a next step in the Tiangong program that will launch three Chinese space stations into Earth orbit between 2011 and 2015. In 2008, NASA scientists told the Bush White House that, with the technology currently available to the Chinese space program, Chinese cosmonauts could be on the moon by 2017. "

Look at the first sentence: "could be on the moon by 2022..."  Okay, "could" is not the same as "will be" and certainly is not the same as "plans to be."  In other words, senior Chinese space officials have said that they could do it--if anybody actually allowed them to do it.  This does not mean that they have an active manned lunar program, and in fact, there has never been any information indicating that they do have an active manned lunar program.  (It's also worth noting that the United States "could" be on the Moon by 2022 as well, if we were willing to spend the money.)

Look at the second sentence: "a next step in the Tiangong program that will launch three Chinese space stations into Earth orbit between 2011 and 2015."  Actually, the Chinese have publicly stated that the "next step" after Tiangong is to build a modular space station, NOT to go to the Moon.  In fact, their plans for 2010-2020 are careful and logical.  They're going to obtain rendezvous experience, increase their flight times, and then devote attention to building up a space station starting around the middle of this decade. 

Also, for both of these sentences, who are these "senior Chinese space officials" and "authoritative Chinese space engineers"?  Why doesn't the author provide their names?

Finally, look at that third sentence: "NASA scientists told the Bush White House..."  Who were these NASA scientists?  What are their names?

I don't mean to be overly critical of this article, only to point out that if you read it closely, it does not actually contain any NEW information.  And in fact, it contains some claims that are contradicted by information that the Chinese have already provided.  The Chinese have provided some good basic outlines of their human spaceflight program.  It's just that people who want to warn of the dangers of China prefer to ignore the information and make up fantasies that the Chinese are rushing to the Moon.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 03:20 AM by spacex »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #31 on: 02/07/2010 03:21 AM »
Attached is a presentation on China's manned spaceflight program produced by the Chinese Society of Astronautics and presented at the Sept 2008 IAF conference in Glasgow. 

If you go to the end of the presentation, you see that the presentation indicates that their goal is to build a multi-module space station by 2020.

What annoys me about articles concerning the Chinese moon landing program is that they a) have no solid data indicating that China even has a manned Moon program, and b) ignore information that the Chinese themselves produce indicating that they are interested in space stations, not lunar missions.

People simply ignore the available data because it does not conform to the story that they want to believe, and to push--that China is going to "beat" the United States to the Moon.  (Which would be hard to do anyway, since we beat them there four decades ago.)

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #32 on: 02/07/2010 07:45 AM »
There is also a Chinese-originated image showing how four CZ-5s can be used for a manned lunar landing.
Nope, that's not a "Chinese-originated image"--it was originated by ME.  Actually, to be precise, it originated at NASA.  I simply acquired it and scanned it:
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1231/2
See also the attached file.

Thank you for the clarification here.   I had never taken that mission profile as being the "final version", but I had not considered that the Chinese had taken a western concept and published it themselves.


On the other hand, I have oreviously been involved with a similar situation.  In the early 1990s Jane's Intelligence Review carried a review of the FSW programme from me and a few months later the review appeared in a Chinese magazine.   I only found out about this when I asked for a translation of the apparently-detailed article, only to be told "it's yours"!!

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #33 on: 02/07/2010 04:55 PM »
The presentation was made by Scott Pace after he left NASA, but it was clearly something that NASA had done.  I never asked for the NASA study, but presumably an enterprising researcher could try to get hold of it.

Several years ago NASA was directed by Congress to perform a review of the Chinese space program.  Apparently all they did was to collect up a bunch of news articles and present them to Congress, rather than to do an actual assessment themselves.  I therefore found this chart to be somewhat surprising, because it implied that NASA had indeed done some kind of assessment.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 05:01 PM by Blackstar »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #34 on: 02/07/2010 05:06 PM »
In reading some of the commentary about this Washington Times opinion article, I'm amazed at how shallow all the discussion of this topic is. 

China has not announced any human lunar plans.  That's pretty clear from the evidence.  However, people keep claiming again and again that China is going to land humans on the Moon, even though there is no evidence.  (Anybody remember that only a few years ago people claimed that China would do this by 2010, then by 2017, then by 2022?)  Every time one of these bogus articles appears, some space buffs get themselves all into a lather about how the U.S. "must beat China to the Moon."  It's a echo that continues despite any actual facts.

And now the new twist is that this columnist has taken a NASA study (I strongly suspect that he doesn't have the study--he simply has the one-page chart that I wrote about in my TSR article two years ago) and said that this is how China is going to the Moon.  And then there are space buffs out there who actually believe that this is how China is going to do it.

It's an argument built on a solid foundation of marshmallows.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 05:07 PM by Blackstar »

Offline William Barton

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #35 on: 02/07/2010 05:21 PM »
Blackstar, I share your amazement this. I have to say, even if China had clearly announced plans to land on the Moon in 2019, backed up by multiple Shenzhou flights every year, and early testing of an HLV design, I doubt it would carry much weight in Congress or the White House. The reaction for most Americans would be, "So what? We did it 50 years earlier."

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #36 on: 02/07/2010 05:45 PM »
It's an argument built on a solid foundation of marshmallows.

I recall the same conclusions being drawn during the 1960s and 1970s about the Soviet Union never really having a programme to land people on the Moon.

I am sure that it is safe to say that the Chinese have a long-term plan to land men - maybe the first woman? - on the Moon, but the near-term goal is clearly the establishment of a module space station by 2020.

I also believe that the Chinese have done some basic studies into how to get people to the Moon.   Maybe if they are thinking of a landing in 2025-2030 then they have the time to develop a heavy-lift launch vehicle for a single-launch mission like Saturn-5/Apollo or N-1/L-3?   Or, if they can get away with a viable programme using the CZ-5 technology then this is the route to use.

Detailed reconstructions of a Chinese piloted lunar landing are far too premature, because such finalised designs most likely don't even exist in China.

Back in July 1999 on BBC World Television I predicted a manned Chinese orbital flight within five years and possibly the next footsteps on the Moon being Chinese in 2019.   It is clear that this was far too optimistic, although I was told that within a day or two there had been a posting on a space philately website saying that "someone" had been on the BBC, predicting a Chinese manned lunar landing within five years!!

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #37 on: 02/07/2010 07:58 PM »
I recall the same conclusions being drawn during the 1960s and 1970s about the Soviet Union never really having a programme to land people on the Moon.


Except for the satellite photos.

Offline sdsds

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #38 on: 02/07/2010 08:25 PM »
It's an argument built on a solid foundation of marshmallows.
I am sure that it is safe to say that the Chinese have a long-term plan to land men - maybe the first woman? - on the Moon, but the near-term goal is clearly the establishment of a module space station by 2020.

I also believe that the Chinese have done some basic studies into how to get people to the Moon.   Maybe if they are thinking of a landing in 2025-2030 then they have the time to develop a heavy-lift launch vehicle for a single-launch mission like Saturn-5/Apollo or N-1/L-3?   Or, if they can get away with a viable programme using the CZ-5 technology then this is the route to use.

Detailed reconstructions of a Chinese piloted lunar landing are far too premature, because such finalised designs most likely don't even exist in China.

This is an area where it probably makes sense to define the terms used in any description.  What, after all, constitutes a "plan", as opposed to a dream or an aspiration?

Based on the evidence of the logo, it seems reasonable to think the Chinese "aspire" to leaving bootprints on the lunar surface.  Thinking they have a "plan of record" detailing the characteristics of the spacecraft and launch vehicles they will use is probably not so reasonable.

I'm interested though in the middle ground.  Is it reasonable to think they might be developing (or discussing internally) "design reference missions"?  Is it pretty clear a mission patterned after the Soviet LK design, i.e. one person on the surface for a short duration, could be mounted using multiple Long March 5 launches?  It would make China the second country to achieve a lunar surface mission.  That would support the claim they had passed Russia in spaceflight accomplishments, which might have considerable political value to them.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 08:26 PM by sdsds »
-- sdsds --

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #39 on: 02/07/2010 09:38 PM »
Based on the evidence of the logo, it seems reasonable to think the Chinese "aspire" to leaving bootprints on the lunar surface.  Thinking they have a "plan of record" detailing the characteristics of the spacecraft and launch vehicles they will use is probably not so reasonable.

There's a good analogy in the Japanese HOPE spaceplane of the 1990s.  During the early-mid 1990s NASDA had plans to develop a small unmanned spaceplane as a technology demonstrator.  Yet it was common for their artist impressions to show cockpit windows on the front of the spaceplane:

http://www.astronautix.com/gallery/chope.htm

They never had any formal plans for a manned spaceplane, and HOPE got canceled anyway.  So it's not safe to read too much into artwork.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #40 on: 02/07/2010 10:00 PM »
Too bad NASA did not hire someone who could do the job.

Even with pretty severe stroke damage, I can do better than that.
For example, two manned statements, one from 2000:

http://www.friends-partners.org/pipermail/fpspace/2006-May/019800.html

"The Moon Project's ultimate objective is establishing on the Moon a permanent outpost of our country's own, the mining of the lunar surface's serviceable mineral resources and shipping them back to the Earth, and THE CARRYING ON OF A MORE THOROUGH AND WIDESPREAD DEEP SPACE SURVEY IN THE FUTURE

And more recently:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-12/29/content_9239369.htm

"ultimately they want to build an observatory on the surface"

CAPS, in other words. How China got hold of the CAPS study is another question. They can bother me about that if they want, but they better be sure to bring their wallets.

« Last Edit: 02/11/2010 12:54 AM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #41 on: 02/07/2010 10:03 PM »
Now that we have that straight, from authoritative public sources, when Chinese space leaders talk about the 2017 Moon landing, they're talking about CE3, not a manned one.

So the problem is to back engineer how Chinese space leaders intend to accomplish their goals with the CZ5 launch family.

In the most economical and straightforward manner.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2010 10:09 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #42 on: 02/07/2010 10:11 PM »
Nope, that's not a "Chinese-originated image"--it was originated by ME.  Actually, to be precise, it originated at NASA.  I simply acquired it and scanned it:
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1231/2
See also the attached file.

On the other hand, I have oreviously been involved with a similar situation.  In the early 1990s Jane's Intelligence Review carried a review of the FSW programme from me and a few months later the review appeared in a Chinese magazine.   I only found out about this when I asked for a translation of the apparently-detailed article, only to be told "it's yours"!!

Always fun when people quote your own work back to you without knowing.

Always maddening when the quote your own work back to you and claim it as their own.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #43 on: 02/07/2010 10:24 PM »
And the latest:

http://spaceflight.esa.int/strategy/pages/Home__Events__Why_the_moon__1_6_Tangming.cfm

Blackstar, I doubt if that last illustration is one of yours.
Is it the CE3 return ship, or....

Someone want to work out the relative diameters of engines and tanks?
« Last Edit: 02/08/2010 12:03 AM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #44 on: 02/07/2010 10:28 PM »
Anybody else find it interesting that China's planning on a lunar landing using only EELV-class rockets, while many in this forum claim that it isn't possible to do such a thing without an HLV?

Not really.  I don't know of anybody--maybe you do--who claims that it is not "possible" to send humans to the Moon using only EELV-class rockets.  The question is what is the "best" method of doing that. 

Note that launching multiple EELV-class rockets creates some significant limitations on the mass that you can land, and also imposes some major constraints.  For instance, it requires high reliability and a robust ground infrastructure (such as multiple pads) so that you can launch all these separate payloads in a short period of time and link them all up.  Is that the best way of doing the mission?  Depends upon how you want to define "best."

An Apollo class mission probably is very possible with just EELV class LVs.

It could be certainly be done in the US as there are no less then 5 launch sites for EELV class vehicles in the US but I don't know what China has to work with.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #45 on: 02/07/2010 10:54 PM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

The trouble that NASA has been having getting beyond LEO really shows how amazing Apollo really was for it's time and any other.  What I took away from last Monday's budget change to NASA was just difficult lunar travel is for any country.

Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #46 on: 02/07/2010 11:58 PM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

Never heard of DIRECT, I see.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

The trouble that NASA has been having getting beyond LEO really shows how amazing Apollo really was for it's time and any other.  What I took away from last Monday's budget change to NASA was just difficult lunar travel is for any country.

What I took away from last Monday's budget was how much money has been wasted by misguided analysis and by bogus political engineering over the last several years.
Bounce strikes. To be continued...
« Last Edit: 02/08/2010 12:02 AM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #47 on: 02/08/2010 12:00 AM »
Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 

Please tell that to the SFF and manned Mars enthusiasts.
And to some of the imaginary "launch companies" as well.

Offline cd-slam

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #48 on: 02/08/2010 12:36 AM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

Try 2015.
But I wish most people should remember that the Chinese manned space program is an integrated part of the People's Liberation Army. Their primary focus right now is not the conquest of space or the Moon, it is the conquest (er, return) of Taiwan.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #49 on: 02/08/2010 03:20 PM »
Their primary focus right now is not the conquest of space or the Moon, it is the conquest (er, return) of Taiwan.

I'd have to say the primary focus right now for many young Chinesse men is finding a wife/girlfriend.

No one is particularly interested in upsetting the prosperity, neither on Taiwan or the Mainland. The only way that problems will ensue is if Taiwan claims seafood rights, seabed mineral rights, or prevents navigation. I expect that some kind of modus vivandi will be arrived at.

I also expect that many women from Taiwan will find they can do better in the marriage market on the mainland. That is probably true for some women in several bordering countries.

We'll see, though it should be noted that horny young men can get pretty crazy.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 12:54 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #50 on: 02/08/2010 04:14 PM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

Never heard of DIRECT, I see.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

Well there are several holes big enough to fly a battle star through in theory that China's economic miracle is indefinatly sustainable.

I feel the history we seen with Japan's economy will repeat it's self with China.
Japan unlike China took quality control very seriously to the point that some modern QM terms are Japanese words.

I'm already beginning to see more items manufactured in places like India,Malaysia,and Vietnam even though the average cost per hour is higher there.

Plus lets not forget rising energy costs as an issue.
If oil was still over the $100 a barrel mark and it will eventually go back to those prices.
Mexico for example becomes a cheaper place to manufacture.
« Last Edit: 02/08/2010 04:15 PM by Patchouli »

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #51 on: 02/09/2010 01:20 AM »
John Logsdon suggest 2030 is a reasonable goal. I tend to agree that if the Chinese really want to do it, sometime in the 2030s is quite possible.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/05/moon-base-alpha/

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #52 on: 02/09/2010 01:28 AM »
"The Russians are the leaders in low-Earth-orbit space today," says Manber.

I wonder what criteria he uses?  Mass to orbit?  People to orbit?  Person-hours in orbit?  Payloads launched?  How many active spacecraft does Russia currently have in LEO?

But a more interesting issue is whether it makes sense to think in terms of destination goals anymore.  Here's a book about that subject:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1557/1
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 01:30 AM by Blackstar »

Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #53 on: 02/09/2010 04:05 AM »
Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 

Please tell that to the SFF and manned Mars enthusiasts.
And to some of the imaginary "launch companies" as well.

OK, I'll bite: are Boeing and Lockheed imaginary launch companies?

Sorry, wrong thread, please ignore this!

« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 04:09 AM by Danderman »

Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #54 on: 02/09/2010 04:08 AM »
Try 2015.
But I wish most people should remember that the Chinese manned space program is an integrated part of the People's Liberation Army. Their primary focus right now is not the conquest of space or the Moon, it is the conquest (er, return) of Taiwan.

That is well underway today, as the economies of Taiwan and the mainland are becoming intertwined. I suspect that any F-16s that we were to sell to Taiwan would eventually be shipped to the mainland.
Many Taiwanese, but not all, are eager for closer relations with the mainland. There are already parts of Taiwan where mainland money is accepted. 




Offline Khadgars

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #55 on: 02/09/2010 04:42 AM »
If the worlds largest economy can't afford a moon program with existing technology it is very likely a very long way off for China to afford a similar program.

Never heard of DIRECT, I see.

China's program is extremely focused, and the budget not wasted.
As far as world's largest economy, by 2025 that may be China; by 2030...

Well there are several holes big enough to fly a battle star through in theory that China's economic miracle is indefinatly sustainable.

I feel the history we seen with Japan's economy will repeat it's self with China.
Japan unlike China took quality control very seriously to the point that some modern QM terms are Japanese words.

I'm already beginning to see more items manufactured in places like India,Malaysia,and Vietnam even though the average cost per hour is higher there.

Plus lets not forget rising energy costs as an issue.
If oil was still over the $100 a barrel mark and it will eventually go back to those prices.
Mexico for example becomes a cheaper place to manufacture.

Excellent points, some how every one seems to believe China will grow at 10%+ indefinitely.

Even better point, as Peak Oil is reached, manufacturing something overseas and shipping it 1,000's of miles across the ocean will become a lot less appealing.

Besides, once the Chinese Yuan is allowed to rise, huge portions of China's manufacturing base will lose their bottom lines.  That is such a massive advantage and I don't see it being allowed much longer.

http://www.nam.org/TradeData/US-ChinaFXRates.aspx

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #56 on: 02/09/2010 04:55 AM »
If you compare China's program to the US/Russian ones it's actually not going so slow if you think of it in terms of milestones reached.

The Chinese manned program is progressing a lot more slowly than I expected.  After their first manned flight, I thought they might be on a pace more like that of the US program's after Alan Shepard's first spaceflight. 

I hope the Chinese do manage to send humans to the moon in this decade.  Since we're giving up, I'd like to see somebody do it at least!  And maybe it'll get this country moving again.


Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #57 on: 02/09/2010 05:16 AM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


On another note, hints about progress on soft landing capability (Chang'e 3)

Expert: China's space technology close moon landing capability
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90881/6890753.html

Offline vt_hokie

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #58 on: 02/09/2010 05:30 AM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


If so, then China's manned program is not nearly as ambitious as I thought.

Offline ChrisSpaceCH

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #59 on: 02/09/2010 05:44 AM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


If so, then China's manned program is not nearly as ambitious as I thought.

No, it's not. I've tried to make that point several times.

China's manned space program (or Project 921, as they call it) was mainly pushed forwards by Jiang Zemin during the 1990s. He basically achieved his goal with Shenzhou 5 in 2003. However, that was also more or less the year he was ousted as Premier and chairman of the Central Military Comission.

I think his sucessors are far less enthusiastic about manned space-flight (which, from what I hear, never had that much support in the Politbureau other than Jiang and his sycophants). This is a factor people here never seem to grasp. Everyone thinks that China will grow indefinately and that China is hell-bent on conquering space. I think the opposite is true, and that the current leadership is much more concerned with problems on Earth (such as access to ressources, which explains the huge and often overlooked Chinese involvement in Africa).

BTW, regarding the aging pyramid, China is worse off than many European countries. That alone would indicate that China's economic might will eventually start shrinking, at the latest around mid-century.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 06:48 AM by ChrisSpaceCH »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #60 on: 02/09/2010 12:57 PM »
John Logsdon suggest 2030 is a reasonable goal. I tend to agree that if the Chinese really want to do it, sometime in the 2030s is quite possible.

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/05/moon-base-alpha/

I see Logsdon has come around. He also now is aware of the impact hazard, and has moved part of his resources in that direction, hosting planetary defense meetings.

I remember calling certain facts of Eisenhower's space policy to Logsdon at a public session, and he has not forgiven me since.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 08:24 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #61 on: 02/09/2010 01:01 PM »
Pictures and charts are extremely cheap.  But actually doing it is hard people, really really hard. 

Please tell that to the SFF and manned Mars enthusiasts.
And to some of the imaginary "launch companies" as well.

OK, I'll bite: are Boeing and Lockheed imaginary launch companies?

Sorry, wrong thread, please ignore this!


Hi Danderman - no problem. That's the same thing the galled me about SFF. They would not recognize existing launch companies as launch companies, but only guys with paper plans.

The other funny thing is that the real start up launch companies were pretty irritated at the subsidies ($) given to the paper guys.


Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #62 on: 02/09/2010 01:14 PM »

Excellent points, some how every one seems to believe China will grow at 10%+ indefinitely.

Even better point, as Peak Oil is reached, manufacturing something overseas and shipping it 1,000's of miles across the ocean will become a lot less appealing.

Besides, once the Chinese Yuan is allowed to rise, huge portions of China's manufacturing base will lose their bottom lines.  That is such a massive advantage and I don't see it being allowed much longer.

http://www.nam.org/TradeData/US-ChinaFXRates.aspx

Internal demand will compensate for external demand. China's leadership will have to deal with trade unions and increased wages and benefits.

I look for a rehabilitation and study of Trotsky's political thinking, at least among Chinese historians. Following closely how Chinese political thought is developing in theoretical terms is beyond me now since my stroke.

As far as China's energy needs go, their scientist and leadership have been working on it for a long time.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #63 on: 02/09/2010 01:21 PM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


On another note, hints about progress on soft landing capability (Chang'e 3)

Expert: China's space technology close moon landing capability
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90881/6890753.html

"the Moon base mission" with extensive mention of 3He, but without mention of the observatory, the other driver.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #64 on: 02/09/2010 05:08 PM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


If so, then China's manned program is not nearly as ambitious as I thought.

It's not that ambitious.  It is measured, careful, logical.  Look at the attached document.  Their plan for the next decade is pretty straightforward:

-launch up to 3 Tiangong spacecraft by 2015
-launch up to 8 Shenzhou spacecraft (not all of them manned) to rendezvous with the Tiangongs
-develop a multi-unit space station by 2020

If they hold to that, they will possibly be stepping up from one manned launch every two years to maybe 1-2 manned launches per year.  That's a significant increase, but still not all that impressive.  But it's what they have decided they want.

All the discussion about China sending humans to the Moon has simply been western fantasy, unsupported by facts.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 05:09 PM by Blackstar »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #65 on: 02/09/2010 08:29 PM »
All the discussion about China sending humans to the Moon has simply been western fantasy, unsupported by facts.

True that a lot of western analysis has bordered on fantasy, Blackstar, but considering the three direct quotes cited above, this reminds me of that old Benny Hill sketch:
Chinese merchant: "What's the matter with you? Don't you understand English?"

Educational TV:
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 08:53 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #66 on: 02/09/2010 08:34 PM »

I think [Jiang's] his sucessors are far less enthusiastic about manned space-flight (which, from what I hear, never had that much support in the Politbureau other than Jiang and his sycophants). This is a factor people here never seem to grasp. Everyone thinks that China will grow indefinately and that China is hell-bent on conquering space. I think the opposite is true, and that the current leadership is much more concerned with problems on Earth (such as access to ressources, which explains the huge and often overlooked Chinese involvement in Africa).

To whom China will provide com sat services and Earth sat services.

BTW, regarding the aging pyramid, China is worse off than many European countries. That alone would indicate that China's economic might will eventually start shrinking, at the latest around mid-century.

China's key demographic problem now is 26 million single young
men.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #67 on: 02/09/2010 08:43 PM »

Excellent points, some how every one seems to believe China will grow at 10%+ indefinitely.

Even better point, as Peak Oil is reached, manufacturing something overseas and shipping it 1,000's of miles across the ocean will become a lot less appealing.

Besides, once the Chinese Yuan is allowed to rise, huge portions of China's manufacturing base will lose their bottom lines.  That is such a massive advantage and I don't see it being allowed much longer.

http://www.nam.org/TradeData/US-ChinaFXRates.aspx
The 10% per year growth is far from sustainable and I suspect a lot of it recently has actually been padding the books.
Besides for China's economy to grow to the size of the US's the rest of the world's economies would have to collectively quadruple to support it.
This is not going to happen any time soon.
But then the same people who make these indefinite growth predictions failed to predict the real estate crashes in Japan and later the US.

Also China's cheap labor may be rendered obsolete by advances in robotics and rapid prototyping long before then.
On shipping it's not just energy the distance also is really bad for JIT manufacturing as you have a minimum 28 day lag for shipments via a container ship.
So you are forced to use large amounts of warehousing.

A train on the other hand can go anywhere inside North America in 3 to 4 days.



I think [Jiang's] his sucessors are far less enthusiastic about manned space-flight (which, from what I hear, never had that much support in the Politbureau other than Jiang and his sycophants). This is a factor people here never seem to grasp. Everyone thinks that China will grow indefinately and that China is hell-bent on conquering space. I think the opposite is true, and that the current leadership is much more concerned with problems on Earth (such as access to ressources, which explains the huge and often overlooked Chinese involvement in Africa).

As badly as they are treating the Africans I feel that may come back to haunt them in much the same way the US's antics in the Middle East during the 60s though 90s have come back to haunt it.
« Last Edit: 02/09/2010 09:03 PM by Patchouli »

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #68 on: 02/09/2010 09:11 PM »
Also China's cheap labor may be rendered obsolete by advances in robotics and rapid prototyping long before then.

What makes you think China will not pursue robotics and rapid proto-typing?

A train on the other hand can go anywhere inside North America in 3 to 4 days.

It takes a little bit longer for a train to go from China to Russia, the Eurasian states, Europe, the Middle East...


Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #69 on: 02/10/2010 03:47 PM »
Not going to happen this decade and maybe not the next.


If so, then China's manned program is not nearly as ambitious as I thought.

It's not that ambitious.  It is measured, careful, logical.  Look at the attached document.  Their plan for the next decade is pretty straightforward:

-launch up to 3 Tiangong spacecraft by 2015
-launch up to 8 Shenzhou spacecraft (not all of them manned) to rendezvous with the Tiangongs
-develop a multi-unit space station by 2020

If they hold to that, they will possibly be stepping up from one manned launch every two years to maybe 1-2 manned launches per year.  That's a significant increase, but still not all that impressive.  But it's what they have decided they want.

All the discussion about China sending humans to the Moon has simply been western fantasy, unsupported by facts.

This is a great document, clearly produced by official sources. Note the statement at the end that missions beyond LEO would be conducted AFTER achievement of the 3rd phase of development, the 20 ton space station, in 2020. So, ten years from now, China will begin, if everything goes successfully, an exploration program. "Begin" in this sense means "the beginning", not that China will fly to the Moon in 2021.

Offline clb22

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #70 on: 02/11/2010 07:18 AM »

It's not that ambitious.  It is measured, careful, logical.  Look at the attached document.  Their plan for the next decade is pretty straightforward:

-launch up to 3 Tiangong spacecraft by 2015
-launch up to 8 Shenzhou spacecraft (not all of them manned) to rendezvous with the Tiangongs
-develop a multi-unit space station by 2020

If they hold to that, they will possibly be stepping up from one manned launch every two years to maybe 1-2 manned launches per year.  That's a significant increase, but still not all that impressive.  But it's what they have decided they want.

All the discussion about China sending humans to the Moon has simply been western fantasy, unsupported by facts.

1. Agree of course on the statement of the Moon. Their long-term goal is a Mir-style spacestation by 2020 (they probably want to start construction by then, similarly to the Soviet approach that started in 1986 and took 10 years to station complete - that would put their station complete in the 2030 area).

2. I fail to see support of the 3 Tiangong + 8 Shenzhou claim in the document you attached to your post. I know some sources mention 3 Tiangong modules up to 2015, but I doubt that will happen. If anything, I assume China tries to get two Salyut-style programs under their belt with increasing on orbit stays from one to the other. The first one starting in 2011/2012 with Tiangong-1 and a Shenzhou-8 unmanned docking followed likely by a manned Shenzhou-9 and maybe a second unmanned cargo supply Shenzhou-10 + Shenzhou 11 in the 2013/2014 time period (this would correlate with the current mission frequency of a mission every 2-3 years). Then they might go for the second Tiangong launch as a new station (Salyut-2 equivalent) in 2015 with the same mission type (unmanned Shenzhou 12 + manned Shenzhou 13 thereafter).

The Chinese have followed the Soviet approach by the book until now, just with a lower launch frequency and slower progress. It only makes sense to assume they will continue on the very path until about 2030 (equivalent of where the Russians were in the mid 1990s).
Spirals not circles, Mr. President. Spirals!

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #71 on: 02/11/2010 02:30 PM »
There is also a Chinese-originated image showing how four CZ-5s can be used for a manned lunar landing.

Nope, that's not a "Chinese-originated image"--it was originated by ME.  Actually, to be precise, it originated at NASA.  I simply acquired it and scanned it:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1231/2

See also the attached file.


Hi Blackstar, Phillip -

It's funny how NASA analysts never considered a re-usable lander left in Moon orbit. Most likely possible by mass, and the cost per manned mission drops to 3 CZ5 plus lunar SZ variant.

That's why the lack of fuel transfer shown in the 60 ton station images is baffling to me.


« Last Edit: 02/13/2010 05:16 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline Serafeim

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #72 on: 02/11/2010 02:49 PM »
but how light could the lunar lander to launch it?the apollo 2 person lander was 14t.a 25t eds can launch it to the moon?

even russia can have these plans.has 20t rocket,soyuz...
or Esa with ariane 5 together with soyuz..
all these has no meaning.
There is no race to the moon now for Chinese to win because the Americans already won.and that cannot be changed.A race to put a  man on the moon now is stupid.a international lunar outpost is logical,but china must cooperate...
« Last Edit: 02/11/2010 02:52 PM by Serafeim »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #73 on: 02/11/2010 03:57 PM »
2. I fail to see support of the 3 Tiangong + 8 Shenzhou claim in the document you attached to your post. I know some sources mention 3 Tiangong modules up to 2015, but I doubt that will happen.

It's not there.  I based that comment on their later statements, which have been consistent.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #74 on: 02/11/2010 04:03 PM »
This is a great document, clearly produced by official sources.

Yes, and one of the things I like to emphasize about this subject is that there ARE official presentations about Chinese space plans that are publicly available, in English.  I know of at least three of them, and have posted two of them myself to articles that I've written for The Space Review.  Those who claim that China plans on sending humans to the Moon cannot point to any official presentations that indicate that, whereas there are official presentations that contradict those claims.

And that's only the stuff that is in English.  Chinese space expert Chen Lan has told me that there is so much information available on the Chinese internet that it is ridiculous.  He says that if westerners were only able to read and translate this material, they would be able to publish a great deal about Chinese space plans.  Jim Oberg has also noted that there is far more material produced by China about its space plans than we ever had about the Soviet Union concerning their space plans during the Cold War.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #75 on: 02/12/2010 01:55 PM »
Hi Blackstar -

As Danderman pointed out to you, from the report you posted:

"After the achievement of the "three srtage" strategy, China will move to the broad area of the LEO orbit AND FAR BEYOND."

By the way, unlike the US, where historical memory runs to the last television season, or to 400 years maximum, China has a very long historical memory. The NASA impact numbers repeated in the NRC report are nearly an order of magnitude too low. (Not that that matters, as NASA's performance was pathetic even given the low impact hazard estimate, so I'm rally looking forward to the next NRC report, particularly if the authors bother to read Clube and Napier).

China's estimate of the impact hazard is different.  See the recent work on man and impact in Malaysia.

Second by the way, despite what David "comets don't hit" Morrison and Alan "nukes are useless" Harris state, it was 3 comet impacts which killed the dinosaur, not 1 asteroid impact.


« Last Edit: 02/13/2010 05:39 PM by E.P. Grondine »

Offline marcus79

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #76 on: 02/12/2010 04:48 PM »
What interests me most is the kind of capability that is build up and how that shortens the path to the Moon or any other kind of celestial destination. Stated goals are nice, but many a space agency has stated that they will have a lunar base or go to Mars in 'the decades ahead'.

It is true that there is no evidence that China is actively pursuing a human lunar program. But at the same time they are pressing with capabilities like CZ-5 and earth orbital flight and station. These improvements do seem to greatly enhance their ability to go to the Moon, if that is what they want to do at a future point in time.

Hard to predict the future for a country like China.

Offline E.P. Grondine

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #77 on: 02/13/2010 05:26 PM »
And that's only the stuff that is in English.  Chinese space expert Chen Lan has told me that there is so much information available on the Chinese internet that it is ridiculous.  He says that if westerners were only able to read and translate this material, they would be able to publish a great deal about Chinese space plans.  Jim Oberg has also noted that there is far more material produced by China about its space plans than we ever had about the Soviet Union concerning their space plans during the Cold War.

Yes. Jim is correct, Blackstar, and amazingly there are westerners that are fluent in Chinese, but they usually don't publish in the popular space press. What is funny is that China also actually produce good English translations which are then ignored. See Benny Hill educational television above.

The problem is to break out China's Moon architecture, given their stated goals for use of the Moon. WHEN they go to parachute recovery or folding wing flyback, as was enivisioned for the Energia Blok A Zenith...

also, take a look at OS1 and later Soviet architectures.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #78 on: 02/15/2010 12:52 PM »
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1565/1

History doesn’t echo, it reverbs
by Dwayne Day
Monday, February 15, 2010

One of the odd characteristics of modern media—not just the Internet, but everything it touches—is that certain stories reverberate at a slow throb. Certainly the Internet is known for its ability to transmit and endlessly repeat a story at lightning speed. But some stories flare up, flash through their interested communities, and fade, only to flare up again a year or more later, even when they are untrue.

Take for example the “China is sending humans to the Moon” story, which persists despite any evidence at all to support it. Claims of a Chinese human lunar program are all built on a solid foundation of marshmallows and Cool Whip, but that has not prevented them from appearing periodically in articles over the past five or six years. This usually happens when initiated by some other event in the space field, such as discussion of American lunar plans. When it reappears, various people commenting on bulletin boards and blogs all acquire the story for their own purposes, using it to air their perennial grievances. The Chinese manned lunar program story is rarely about China, it is about whoever is writing about it, and therein may lie the key to the story’s persistence.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #79 on: 02/15/2010 12:53 PM »
One of the presentations used in the article.  This one mentions a future study of a possible manned lunar program.

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #80 on: 02/15/2010 05:53 PM »
Bravo Dwayne. An article that every space enthusiast should read closely (regardless of political orientation)

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1565/1

History doesn’t echo, it reverbs
by Dwayne Day
Monday, February 15, 2010

One of the odd characteristics of modern media—not just the Internet, but everything it touches—is that certain stories reverberate at a slow throb. Certainly the Internet is known for its ability to transmit and endlessly repeat a story at lightning speed. But some stories flare up, flash through their interested communities, and fade, only to flare up again a year or more later, even when they are untrue.

Take for example the “China is sending humans to the Moon” story, which persists despite any evidence at all to support it. Claims of a Chinese human lunar program are all built on a solid foundation of marshmallows and Cool Whip, but that has not prevented them from appearing periodically in articles over the past five or six years. This usually happens when initiated by some other event in the space field, such as discussion of American lunar plans. When it reappears, various people commenting on bulletin boards and blogs all acquire the story for their own purposes, using it to air their perennial grievances. The Chinese manned lunar program story is rarely about China, it is about whoever is writing about it, and therein may lie the key to the story’s persistence.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2010 05:03 PM by spacex »

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #81 on: 02/15/2010 11:28 PM »
Bravo Dwayne. An article that every space enthusiast should read closely (be it liberal or conservative outlook)

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1565/1

History doesn’t echo, it reverbs
by Dwayne Day
Monday, February 15, 2010

One of the odd characteristics of modern media—not just the Internet, but everything it touches—is that certain stories reverberate at a slow throb. Certainly the Internet is known for its ability to transmit and endlessly repeat a story at lightning speed. But some stories flare up, flash through their interested communities, and fade, only to flare up again a year or more later, even when they are untrue.

Take for example the “China is sending humans to the Moon” story, which persists despite any evidence at all to support it. Claims of a Chinese human lunar program are all built on a solid foundation of marshmallows and Cool Whip, but that has not prevented them from appearing periodically in articles over the past five or six years. This usually happens when initiated by some other event in the space field, such as discussion of American lunar plans. When it reappears, various people commenting on bulletin boards and blogs all acquire the story for their own purposes, using it to air their perennial grievances. The Chinese manned lunar program story is rarely about China, it is about whoever is writing about it, and therein may lie the key to the story’s persistence.

Tiny module is tiny it makes even Dragon look huge.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2010 11:28 PM by Patchouli »

Offline aquarius

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #82 on: 02/19/2010 08:30 AM »
Hi Blackstar -

As Danderman pointed out to you, from the report you posted:

"After the achievement of the "three srtage" strategy, China will move to the broad area of the LEO orbit AND FAR BEYOND."

By the way, unlike the US, where historical memory runs to the last television season, or to 400 years maximum, China has a very long historical memory. The NASA impact numbers repeated in the NRC report are nearly an order of magnitude too low. (Not that that matters, as NASA's performance was pathetic even given the low impact hazard estimate, so I'm rally looking forward to the next NRC report, particularly if the authors bother to read Clube and Napier).

China's estimate of the impact hazard is different.  See the recent work on man and impact in Malaysia.

Second by the way, despite what David "comets don't hit" Morrison and Alan "nukes are useless" Harris state, it was 3 comet impacts which killed the dinosaur, not 1 asteroid impact.




I don't understand what impact hazard estimates have to do with China's manned moon plans.

Offline fregate

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #83 on: 02/22/2010 04:11 AM »
Interesting but wouldn't Shenzhou need serious upgrades to perform chase down of the ascent vehicle and TEI?
TEI on Apollo was around 1,076 m/s while Shenzhou I belive only has a delta V of about 400m/s.

To be more precise 388 m/sec 8)
"Selene, the Moon. Selenginsk, an old town in Siberia: moon-rocket  town" Vladimir Nabokov

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #84 on: 02/22/2010 05:50 AM »
I've translated Section 2.1 of the China Moon paper dealing with heavy launch vehicles. I used the Chinese Dictionary at http://www.nciku.com/ to manually write each character and then copy to my email editor (which can accept Chinese characters). I then used Babelfish to translate the Chinese text. Fortunately, a lot of the text is repeated (especially in the Plan descriptions), which helped speed up the process, although it still took me about six hours to do the translation. I'll probably start translating Section 2.2 dealing with the CZ-5 next. If anyone wants to translate the other Sections, let us know which Section you're translating, so that we don't duplicate other people's work.

Attached is my attempt at what the Plan A and B launch vehicles look like. I'll do Plan C and D by the end of the week.

2.1 直接进入奔月轨道运载系统初步方案设想
美国阿波罗登月采用的就是直接进入奔月轨道运
载系统的方案。飞船由指令舱、服务舱和登月舱 3 部
分构成, 由重型运载火箭将飞船一次性送入奔月轨道,
然后飞船与火箭分离,飞船飞行进入环月轨道,之后
分离出登月舱实施登月。参考阿波罗登月的规模,飞
船的总重为 50 t 左右,因此该种方式要求运载火箭奔
月轨道运载能力为 50 t 级,初步方案设想加下:

方案A: 三级半构型,芯级直径 5 m,捆绑 6 个 5 m
直径的助推器.助推器与一子级为相同的模块,均采用
1 台 500 t 级推力液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量均为
300 t; 二子级采用 4 台 120 t 级推力液氧煤油发动机
(YF-100),推进剂工作量为 400 t; 三子级采用 4 台
25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次启动,推进剂工作
量 110 t。

方案B: 三级半构型,芯级直径 7.5 m,捆绑 4 个
3.35 m 直径的助推器.每个助推器采用 1 台 400 t 级推
力液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量为 237 t; 一子级采
用 4 台 400 t 级推力液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量
为 1 106 t; 二子级采用 5 台 50 t 级推力氢氧发动机
(YF-77), 推进剂工作量为 220 t; 三子级采用 4 台
25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次启动,推进剂工作
量为 110 t。

方案C: 两级半构型,芯级直径 8.5 m,捆绑 4 个
5 m 直径的助推器.每个助推器采用 2 台 400 t 级推力
液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量为 490 t; 一子级采用
4 台 120 t 级推力的氢氧发动机,推进剂工作量为 700 t;
二子级采用 4 台 25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次
启动,推进剂工作量为 130 t。

方案D: 三级构型,一子级直径 10.0 m,二、三子
级直径 7.5 m。一子级采用 7 台 500 t 级推力液氧煤油发
动机,推进剂工作量为 2 190 t; 二子级采用 5 台 50 t
级推力氢氧发动机 (YF-77),推进剂工作量为 360 t;
三子级采用 4 台 25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次启
动,推进剂工作量 110 t。

上述 4 种方案均能满足奔月轨道 50 t 的运载能力
的要求,其中方案 A 长细比较大,方案 B、C、D 均可
作为备选方案,但是无论何种方案均需新研制单台推
力在 400-500 t 级的液氧煤油发动机或者 120 t 级推力
的氢氧发动机。

2.1 Enter rushes to the month track delivery system tentative plan:
To conceive American Apollo to land the moon uses is directly enters directly
rushes to the month track delivery system's plan. The airship by the command
module, the service module and the lunar excursion module 3 parts of
constitutions, disposable sends in by the heavy launcher the airship rushes the
month track, then the airship and the rocket separate, the airship flight enters
the circumlunar trajectory, afterward separates the lunar excursion module
implementation moon landing. Refers to the scale which Apollo lands the moon,
airship's gross weight is about 50 t, therefore this way request launch vehicle
rushes to the month track delivery capacity is 50 t levels, the tentative plan
adds:

Plan A: The third-level half configuration, core level diameter 5 m, ties up 6 5
m diameters the auxiliary booster. The auxiliary booster with a sub-level for
the same module, uses 1 500 t level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene engine,
the propellant work load is 300 t; Two sub-levels use 4 120 t level thrust force
liquid oxygen kerosene engine (YF-100), the propellant work load is 400 t; Three
sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine, the engine two
starts, propellant work load 110 t.

Plan B: The third-level half configuration, core level diameter 7.5 m, ties up 4
3.35 m diameters the auxiliary booster. Each auxiliary booster uses 1 400 t
level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene engine, the propellant work load is
237 t; A sub-level uses 4 400 t level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene
engine, the propellant work load is 1,106 t; Two sub-levels use 5 50 t level
thrust force oxyhydrogen engine (YF-77), the propellant work load is 220 t;
Three sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine, the engine
two starts, the propellant work load are 110 t.

Plan C: Two-and-a-half levels of configurations, core level diameter 8.5 m, ties
up 4 5 m diameters the auxiliary booster. Each auxiliary booster uses 2 400 t
level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene engine, the propellant work load is
490 t; A sub-level uses 4 120 t level thrust force the oxyhydrogen engine, the
propellant work load is 700 t; Two sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force
oxyhydrogen engine, the engine two starts, the propellant work load are 130 t.

Plan D: Third-level configuration, sub-level diameter 10.0 m, two, three
sub-level diameter 7.5 m. A sub-level uses 7 500 t level thrust force liquid
oxygen kerosene engine, the propellant work load is 2 190 t; Two sub-levels use
5 50 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine (YF-77), the propellant work load
is 360 t; Three sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine, the
engine two starts, propellant work load 110 t.

The above 4 kind of plans can rush to month track 50 t satisfiedly the delivery
ability request, the plan A slab sided is quite big, plan B, C, D may take the
alternative plan, but regardless of what kind of plan must develop the single
Taiwan thrust force newly in 400-500 t level liquid oxygen kerosene engine or
120 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #85 on: 02/23/2010 03:51 AM »
Interesting but wouldn't Shenzhou need serious upgrades to perform chase down of the ascent vehicle and TEI?
TEI on Apollo was around 1,076 m/s while Shenzhou I belive only has a delta V of about 400m/s.

To be more precise 388 m/sec 8)

I wouldn't be surprised if the delta V of a lot of the commercial vehicles exceed that.

They'll definitely require an upper stage along the lines of a Fregat or Block DM.

Of course they could still do an Apollo 8 style free return.
But doing so could cost them a first lunar landing as it would cause the US to dump money into a fast tracked lunar program.

Offline ChrisSpaceCH

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #86 on: 02/23/2010 04:28 AM »
Of course they could still do an Apollo 8 style free return.
But doing so could cost them a first lunar landing as it would cause the US to dump money into a fast tracked lunar program.


Not so sure about that.

It's much cheaper to just call in a press conference and state: "we already did that 40+ years ago, so this means China is 40 years behind"...

Offline fregate

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #87 on: 02/23/2010 05:01 AM »
Interesting but wouldn't Shenzhou need serious upgrades to perform chase down of the ascent vehicle and TEI?
TEI on Apollo was around 1,076 m/s while Shenzhou I belive only has a delta V of about 400m/s.

To be more precise 388 m/sec 8)

I wouldn't be surprised if the delta V of a lot of the commercial vehicles exceed that.

They'll definitely require an upper stage along the lines of a Fregat or Block DM.

Of course they could still do an Apollo 8 style free return.
But doing so could cost them a first lunar landing as it would cause the US to dump money into a fast tracked lunar program.

For such mission they could use modified 3rd cryogenic CZ H-18 stage from CZ-3B LV, but docking mission on LEO is still a pre-requisite. 
"Selene, the Moon. Selenginsk, an old town in Siberia: moon-rocket  town" Vladimir Nabokov

Offline Lars_J

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #88 on: 02/23/2010 04:24 PM »
I imagine that they would attempt such a stunt unmanned first, so with their typical schedule we will know years in advance that they were planning it.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #89 on: 02/23/2010 04:36 PM »
I've translated Section 2.1 of the China Moon paper dealing with heavy launch vehicles. I used the Chinese Dictionary at http://www.nciku.com/ to manually write each character and then copy to my email editor (which can accept Chinese characters). I then used Babelfish to translate the Chinese text. Fortunately, a lot of the text is repeated (especially in the Plan descriptions), which helped speed up the process, although it still took me about six hours to do the translation. I'll probably start translating Section 2.2 dealing with the CZ-5 next. If anyone wants to translate the other Sections, let us know which Section you're translating, so that we don't duplicate other people's work.

Attached is my attempt at what the Plan A and B launch vehicles look like. I'll do Plan C and D by the end of the week.

2.1 直接进入奔月轨道运载系统初步方案设想
美国阿波罗登月采用的就是直接进入奔月轨道运
载系统的方案。飞船由指令舱、服务舱和登月舱 3 部
分构成, 由重型运载火箭将飞船一次性送入奔月轨道,
然后飞船与火箭分离,飞船飞行进入环月轨道,之后
分离出登月舱实施登月。参考阿波罗登月的规模,飞
船的总重为 50 t 左右,因此该种方式要求运载火箭奔
月轨道运载能力为 50 t 级,初步方案设想加下:

方案A: 三级半构型,芯级直径 5 m,捆绑 6 个 5 m
直径的助推器.助推器与一子级为相同的模块,均采用
1 台 500 t 级推力液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量均为
300 t; 二子级采用 4 台 120 t 级推力液氧煤油发动机
(YF-100),推进剂工作量为 400 t; 三子级采用 4 台
25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次启动,推进剂工作
量 110 t。

方案B: 三级半构型,芯级直径 7.5 m,捆绑 4 个
3.35 m 直径的助推器.每个助推器采用 1 台 400 t 级推
力液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量为 237 t; 一子级采
用 4 台 400 t 级推力液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量
为 1 106 t; 二子级采用 5 台 50 t 级推力氢氧发动机
(YF-77), 推进剂工作量为 220 t; 三子级采用 4 台
25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次启动,推进剂工作
量为 110 t。

方案C: 两级半构型,芯级直径 8.5 m,捆绑 4 个
5 m 直径的助推器.每个助推器采用 2 台 400 t 级推力
液氧煤油发动机,推进剂工作量为 490 t; 一子级采用
4 台 120 t 级推力的氢氧发动机,推进剂工作量为 700 t;
二子级采用 4 台 25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次
启动,推进剂工作量为 130 t。

方案D: 三级构型,一子级直径 10.0 m,二、三子
级直径 7.5 m。一子级采用 7 台 500 t 级推力液氧煤油发
动机,推进剂工作量为 2 190 t; 二子级采用 5 台 50 t
级推力氢氧发动机 (YF-77),推进剂工作量为 360 t;
三子级采用 4 台 25 t 级推力氢氧发动机,发动机两次启
动,推进剂工作量 110 t。

上述 4 种方案均能满足奔月轨道 50 t 的运载能力
的要求,其中方案 A 长细比较大,方案 B、C、D 均可
作为备选方案,但是无论何种方案均需新研制单台推
力在 400-500 t 级的液氧煤油发动机或者 120 t 级推力
的氢氧发动机。

2.1 Enter rushes to the month track delivery system tentative plan:
To conceive American Apollo to land the moon uses is directly enters directly
rushes to the month track delivery system's plan. The airship by the command
module, the service module and the lunar excursion module 3 parts of
constitutions, disposable sends in by the heavy launcher the airship rushes the
month track, then the airship and the rocket separate, the airship flight enters
the circumlunar trajectory, afterward separates the lunar excursion module
implementation moon landing. Refers to the scale which Apollo lands the moon,
airship's gross weight is about 50 t, therefore this way request launch vehicle
rushes to the month track delivery capacity is 50 t levels, the tentative plan
adds:

Plan A: The third-level half configuration, core level diameter 5 m, ties up 6 5
m diameters the auxiliary booster. The auxiliary booster with a sub-level for
the same module, uses 1 500 t level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene engine,
the propellant work load is 300 t; Two sub-levels use 4 120 t level thrust force
liquid oxygen kerosene engine (YF-100), the propellant work load is 400 t; Three
sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine, the engine two
starts, propellant work load 110 t.

Plan B: The third-level half configuration, core level diameter 7.5 m, ties up 4
3.35 m diameters the auxiliary booster. Each auxiliary booster uses 1 400 t
level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene engine, the propellant work load is
237 t; A sub-level uses 4 400 t level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene
engine, the propellant work load is 1,106 t; Two sub-levels use 5 50 t level
thrust force oxyhydrogen engine (YF-77), the propellant work load is 220 t;
Three sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine, the engine
two starts, the propellant work load are 110 t.

Plan C: Two-and-a-half levels of configurations, core level diameter 8.5 m, ties
up 4 5 m diameters the auxiliary booster. Each auxiliary booster uses 2 400 t
level thrust force liquid oxygen kerosene engine, the propellant work load is
490 t; A sub-level uses 4 120 t level thrust force the oxyhydrogen engine, the
propellant work load is 700 t; Two sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force
oxyhydrogen engine, the engine two starts, the propellant work load are 130 t.

Plan D: Third-level configuration, sub-level diameter 10.0 m, two, three
sub-level diameter 7.5 m. A sub-level uses 7 500 t level thrust force liquid
oxygen kerosene engine, the propellant work load is 2 190 t; Two sub-levels use
5 50 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine (YF-77), the propellant work load
is 360 t; Three sub-levels use 4 25 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine, the
engine two starts, propellant work load 110 t.

The above 4 kind of plans can rush to month track 50 t satisfiedly the delivery
ability request, the plan A slab sided is quite big, plan B, C, D may take the
alternative plan, but regardless of what kind of plan must develop the single
Taiwan thrust force newly in 400-500 t level liquid oxygen kerosene engine or
120 t level thrust force oxyhydrogen engine.
And thatsw why DIRECT needs to be part of the new direction plan via a comprimise in congress. So for all you guys out their saying we dont need HLV (be it a scaled eelv or otherwise) here is an argument you cannot ignore. They ARE going there. We need to get back out into to space to. But i agree with you (the commercial supporters) point that it should be so cheap that its permanently sustainble, not an apollo repeat.
3-30-2017: The start of a great future
"Live Long and Prosper"

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #90 on: 03/05/2010 04:54 AM »
Rocket to go to moon under design
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/05/content_9540063.htm

Specifically mentions Long March 6 and 7 and another heavier class for an actual manned moon mission that is obviously only being discussed at this stage. Very interesting indeed.

Offline marcus79

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« Last Edit: 03/06/2010 08:55 PM by marcus79 »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #92 on: 03/06/2010 08:47 PM »
Rocket to go to moon under design
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/05/content_9540063.htm

Specifically mentions Long March 6 and 7 and another heavier class for an actual manned moon mission that is obviously only being discussed at this stage. Very interesting indeed.

We know that the CZ-6 will be a small launcher using the 2.25 metres diameter CZ-5 strap-on derivative as a first stage, and it would be reasonable to deduce that the CZ-7 is the designator corresponding to a launch vehicle which the Chinese have previously talked about which will have a core based upon the 3.35 metres diameter CZ-5 strap-ons.

So, the heavy-lift launcher may be CZ-8.   Three times the thrust of the CZ-5 vehicle doesn't seem to be enough for a vehicle in the same class as Saturn-5, but suggests something of a lower capability than the the Soviet N-1.   Using LOX/LH in upper stages could increase the capability beyond the N-1, though.

Of course, any attempt to reconstruct such a vehicle would be purely guesswork on our part - but it could be fun!!   For example, we could be looking at two launches for each manned lunar visit: one of the CSM/LM (using Apollo terminology) and the other carrying the trans-lunar stage (LOX/kerosene?).

BTW, I think that I am right in saying that the Saturn-5 is the only launch vehicle to have carried two LOX/LH stages, to date anyway.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2010 10:35 PM by Phillip Clark »

Offline simonbp

Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #93 on: 03/07/2010 04:49 AM »
BTW, I think that I am right in saying that the Saturn-5 is the only launch vehicle to have carried two LOX/LH stages, to date anyway.

No.



Also.



And.

« Last Edit: 03/07/2010 04:57 AM by simonbp »

Offline blackjack

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #94 on: 03/07/2010 10:52 AM »
Rocket to go to moon under design
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/05/content_9540063.htm

Specifically mentions Long March 6 and 7 and another heavier class for an actual manned moon mission that is obviously only being discussed at this stage. Very interesting indeed.

Look, it is all the same with what I said before. The new rocket will use 500ton(sea level) kerosene engine and 150ton(sea level) hydrogen engine. Someone don't belive what I said.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #95 on: 03/07/2010 11:07 AM »
I stand corrected regarding launch vehicles having two LOX/LH2 upper stages - but Ariane-5?????   Methinks not!

Online hop

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #96 on: 03/07/2010 09:21 PM »
I stand corrected regarding launch vehicles having two LOX/LH2 upper stages - but Ariane-5?????   Methinks not!
ECA.

On topic:
Quote
Of course, any attempt to reconstruct such a vehicle would be purely guesswork on our part
Given that the Chinese themselves haven't started anything beyond preliminary design, and there is no mission approved for such a vehicle, it certainly would be. In reality, what form a Chinese HLV takes (if one actually gets built), will depend on what mission the Chinese leadership actually approves, what architecture the Chinese space industry chooses to accomplish that mission, how the development of the current generation of rockets goes, and technological developments in the intervening years. The Chinese say they will launch a 20 ton class space station "before 2020". It appears likely that any serious moon development will come after that.

How much before 2020 ? Not much, if the current pace is any indicator. Contrary to the wild eyed fantasies of the western press and space enthusiasts, the actual pace of the Chinese program continues to be slow. The Tiangong 1 preliminary space station module has slipped into 2011 for "technical reasons"*. A couple years of test missions are expected to follow. Based on past experience (in space activities world wide, no slight on the Chinese here), further slips in the development of rockets and space station components should be expected. This makes the 20 ton class module launching by 2015 look fairly optimistic.

* The fact that this was reported in the Chinese press, quoting official sources, says a great deal about the relative openness of the current Chinese program.

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #97 on: 03/07/2010 11:10 PM »
I stand corrected regarding launch vehicles having two LOX/LH2 upper stages - but Ariane-5?????   Methinks not!
ECA.

On topic:
Quote
Of course, any attempt to reconstruct such a vehicle would be purely guesswork on our part
Given that the Chinese themselves haven't started anything beyond preliminary design, and there is no mission approved for such a vehicle, it certainly would be. In reality, what form a Chinese HLV takes (if one actually gets built), will depend on what mission the Chinese leadership actually approves, what architecture the Chinese space industry chooses to accomplish that mission, how the development of the current generation of rockets goes, and technological developments in the intervening years. The Chinese say they will launch a 20 ton class space station "before 2020". It appears likely that any serious moon development will come after that.

How much before 2020 ? Not much, if the current pace is any indicator. Contrary to the wild eyed fantasies of the western press and space enthusiasts, the actual pace of the Chinese program continues to be slow. The Tiangong 1 preliminary space station module has slipped into 2011 for "technical reasons"*. A couple years of test missions are expected to follow. Based on past experience (in space activities world wide, no slight on the Chinese here), further slips in the development of rockets and space station components should be expected. This makes the 20 ton class module launching by 2015 look fairly optimistic.

* The fact that this was reported in the Chinese press, quoting official sources, says a great deal about the relative openness of the current Chinese program.


I tend to agree with you and Phil Clark. CZ-5, 6, 7 will probably occupy China's rocket development priorities for the next decade or so. Further slips would not be surprising and happens anywhere. Any approval of a heavier LV (CZ-8?) resembling a Saturn V will not happen for a long time.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #98 on: 03/15/2010 02:31 AM »
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/awst/2010/03/15/AW_03_15_2010_p22-211145.xml&headline=Longer%20Marches

Longer Marches
Mar 12, 2010
By Bradley Perrett
Beijing

The Chinese space industry is studying a Moon rocket in the class of the Saturn V while separately moving ahead with a medium-heavy launcher that will complete a modern, modular family of launch vehicles.

Chinese space engineers appear to be planning to assemble manned lunar spacecraft in orbit with two or more launches per mission.

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #99 on: 03/15/2010 05:14 AM »
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/awst/2010/03/15/AW_03_15_2010_p22-211145.xml&headline=Longer%20Marches

Longer Marches
Mar 12, 2010
By Bradley Perrett
Beijing

The Chinese space industry is studying a Moon rocket in the class of the Saturn V while separately moving ahead with a medium-heavy launcher that will complete a modern, modular family of launch vehicles.

Chinese space engineers appear to be planning to assemble manned lunar spacecraft in orbit with two or more launches per mission.

Great article. As far as I can tell, there is no date yet for the Long March 7. In any case, their success at 5, 6, 7 will probably determine the pace at which they decide on a moon rocket.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2010 05:24 AM by spacex »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #100 on: 03/15/2010 08:29 PM »
I found the article a little difficult to follow.  I need a table to keep up on this stuff.  One thing that is unclear to me is what is the source of this information?  The AWST article seems to indicate that the information comes from Chinese newspapers, rather than technical publications or interviews with Chinese space officials.  So the information seems to be removed from its original sources.

That said, I'm intrigued by the fact that both the Chinese and the Indians seem to be performing studies of very large launch vehicles in terms of human lunar missions.  See the vehicle masses in this presentation on a possible Indian lunar vehicle.

They give lift-off weights of 3075 and 1690 tons for their two boosters.  That provides a baseline comparison.  A quick search I just did gives a Delta IV Heavy lift off weight of over 733 tons and launch weight for the Ares I is 805 tons.  Saturn V is 3038 tons.

So, essentially they're proposing a Saturn V equivalent vehicle, and a second vehicle with a little more than half the mass.  So they're talking about some really large rockets.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2010 08:40 PM by Blackstar »

Offline marsavian

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #101 on: 09/20/2010 10:45 AM »
http://china.globaltimes.cn/society/2010-09/575264.html

The timetable for China's first manned moon landing, as well as the launch of a space station, lab and probes to explore Mars and Venus, was announced by scientists over the weekend.

In a visit to the country's space base in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, Saturday, Yang Liwei, China's first astronaut to voyage beyond the planet's atmosphere in 2003, revealed plans to launch the country's first unmanned space laboratory, Tiangong-1, next year, which is expected to accomplish the country's first unmanned docking with Shenzhen-8, a crucial step toward building a space station.

Both the manned spacecraft Shenzhou-9 and the unmanned Shenzhou-10 will be launched in 2012 to dock with the Tiangong space laboratory, and by around 2020 China will launch its first orbital space station, Yang said.       

Meanwhile, at an aerospace engineering forum Thursday, Ye Peijian, Commander in Chief of the Chang'e Program and an academic at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said China's lunar-probe program, the country's first step toward deep-space exploration, is expected to orbit the moon, land and return to Earth by 2020.

Ye proposed that China launch its first manned moon landing in 2025, a probe to Mars by 2013 and to Venus by 2015.

"China has the full capacity to accomplish Mars exploration by 2013," Ye said.

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #102 on: 09/20/2010 11:19 AM »

Ye proposed that China launch its first manned moon landing in 2025, a probe to Mars by 2013 and to Venus by 2015.

"China has the full capacity to accomplish Mars exploration by 2013," Ye said.[/i]

Very ambitious. China's human spaceflight is currently at about the same level as the Soviet Union's in 1970. And they seem to be following a Soviet design path and construction philosophy (which isn't necessarily a bad idea). The next goal is a (Salyut-style) spacelab (Tiangong-1) culminating in a Mir-type station in around 2020.

The Soviets spent a lot of money and energy from the mid-1970s onwards developping the Energia booster (and Buran shuttle) which flew in the late 1980s. Considering the fact that China will most probably not repeat the Soviet's mistakes, it would seem just possible for them to build a similar-scale rocket by 2025, which would put the moon within range from a payload perspective. But what about landers and the like? Did the Soviets have any concrete moon-landing plans with Energia? I can't remember any, and the Chinese seem to be intent on copying and improving, not necessarily innovating. At least they haven't until now.

Offline savuporo

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #103 on: 09/20/2010 10:58 PM »
Considering the fact that China will most probably not repeat the Soviet's mistakes, it would seem just possible for them to build a similar-scale rocket by 2025, which would put the moon within range from a payload perspective.

Uh .. if they learn from the mistakes, then they obviously would not be building anything like Energia. Why bankrupt themselves ?

I recall seeing their lunar architecture drafts as multi-launch LEO rendezvous concepts which do not require that kind of heavy lift.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline aquarius

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #104 on: 09/21/2010 01:30 AM »


Both the manned spacecraft Shenzhou-9 and the unmanned Shenzhou-10 will be launched in 2012 to dock with the Tiangong space laboratory, and by around 2020 China will launch its first orbital space station, Yang said.       



Is that a typo or they've changed their plans? Shenzhou-10 was supposed to be manned.

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #105 on: 09/21/2010 06:52 AM »


Both the manned spacecraft Shenzhou-9 and the unmanned Shenzhou-10 will be launched in 2012 to dock with the Tiangong space laboratory, and by around 2020 China will launch its first orbital space station, Yang said.       



Is that a typo or they've changed their plans? Shenzhou-10 was supposed to be manned.

I noted that quote in another report of the same statements by Yang and feel sure it must be an error in translation or interpretation. 

The Chinese have been sending a consistent message about an unmanned Shenzhou 8 followed by two manned flights, Shenzhous 9 and 10, for about 3 years, so odd that the message changes now. Also, in practical terms, why fly a manned docking mission and then revert to unmanned? It doesn't make sense.
« Last Edit: 09/21/2010 06:53 AM by tonyq »

Offline hal9000

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #106 on: 09/21/2010 08:04 AM »
regarding unmanned Shenzhou 10 - yes, probably a translation error, unless it means the Progress - type resupply craft?

Offline marsavian

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #107 on: 10/14/2010 08:51 AM »
China has no desire for new space race

http://opinion.globaltimes.cn/commentary/2010-10/581744.html

We should not only be engaged in lunar exploration, but also step up our pace. Lunar exploration is a threshold for exploring deep space and remote space, and it could provide the basic experience for eventually exploring other planets. There are unimaginable abundant natural resources on the moon, such as rare earths, or uranium and titanium ores. The titanium ore reserve on the moon is the same size as the whole of China. Although we are not able to exploit these resources due to the extremely high cost and technological limitations, as scientists, we have the responsibility to prove the existence of these resources and inform the people. The moon has a very huge energy reserve. Japanese scientists recently came up with a design idea that if humanity could build a moon belt for solar power generation and transmitting energy back to the earth, human energy needs could be permanently satisfied. If China doesn't explore the moon, we will have no say in international lunar exploration and can't safeguard our proper rights and interests.

I am strongly against seeing lunar exploration as a race. The second round of lunar exploration is quite different from the first one conducted by the US and the former Soviet Union, which was a struggle for hegemony in space. Every competent country will certainly take part in space exploration out of self-development and for technological and scientific progress. These countries are working together to contribute to the sum of human knowledge and development. Those who highlight China's alleged ambitions for control may have different agendas and motivations. The precondition for manned lunar exploration is that we must assure the safe return of the astronaut to the Earth. Any unnecessary risk is not allowed. Therefore, China is very cautious and moves forward step by step according to our own capability. There is still not a definite timetable for China's manned lunar exploration. The former director of NASA once said that if China were willing, it would send its astronaut to the moon by 2020. Some domestic scientists have suggested 2025 as a proper time and some have suggested 2030.
« Last Edit: 10/14/2010 09:02 AM by marsavian »

Online hop

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #108 on: 10/14/2010 04:52 PM »
We should not only be engaged in lunar exploration, but also step up our pace. Lunar exploration is a threshold for exploring deep space and remote space, and it could provide the basic experience for eventually exploring other planets. There are unimaginable abundant natural resources on the moon, such as rare earths, or uranium and titanium ores. The titanium ore reserve on the moon is the same size as the whole of China.
Err... Titanium is one of the most common elements on the planet. It's expensive because it is difficult to refine and work with, not because the element itself is rare. One hopes this sort of reasoning isn't actually motivating their lunar program...


Offline HappyMartian

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #109 on: 10/16/2010 06:30 AM »
PREVIEW: NASA chief seeks transparency on China trip

By Bill Smith Oct 15, 2010, 7:25 GMT

AT:    http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/asiapacific/news/article_1591601.php/PREVIEW-NASA-chief-seeks-transparency-on-China-trip

"Johnson-Freese said it was 'key that everyone on both sides keeps substantive expectations low and focuses on learning to work together.'"

Cheers!
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Offline HappyMartian

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #110 on: 10/26/2010 01:21 PM »
NASA chief says pleased with China visit

At:  http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jnR_cUbSf7NjDL3ppyhBJsABgA3A?docId=CNG.f4038d0b7ff98741bcfa1c628ce3111c.3e1


Edited to add:

NASA Administrator Statement On China Visit    Monday, October 25, 2010

At: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=31926


Cheers!
« Last Edit: 10/26/2010 01:27 PM by HappyMartian »
"The Moon is the most accessible destination for realizing commercial, exploration and scientific objectives beyond low Earth orbit." - LEAG

Offline Satori

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #111 on: 10/26/2010 04:15 PM »
In other news, Chinese first Martian sortie will fly next year on Phobos-Grunt, and their own indigenous Martian orbiter tentatively scheduled for 2013.

Change'3 lunar lander + rover, late 2012 apparently.

There are dedicated threads for this...

Offline sdsds

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #112 on: 10/26/2010 06:26 PM »
Bolden's statement included, "I am pleased that NASA was able to meet its objectives for the visit, which included becoming acquainted with relevant Chinese space officials."

Have the names and ranks of these officials been announced anywhere?
« Last Edit: 10/27/2010 03:18 AM by sdsds »
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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #113 on: 02/24/2011 05:15 AM »
I've finally finished drawing the four HLV's that were given in the Chinese paper posted in page one of this thread. They are each supposed to send 50 t through TLI.

« Last Edit: 02/25/2011 07:41 AM by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Downix

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #114 on: 02/24/2011 02:58 PM »
I've finally finished drawing the four HLV's that were given in the Chinese paper posted in page one of this thread. They are each supposed to send 50 t through TLI.


Plan C looks similar to Energia in principle.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #115 on: 02/24/2011 04:20 PM »
I've finally finished drawing the four HLV's that were given in the Chinese paper posted in page one of this thread. They are each supposed to send 50 t through TLI.


Aren't you swapping 3rd and 2nd core engines in Plan B? It seems that B 3rd, C 2nd and D 3rd are the same vehicle (with a slight widening on C).

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #116 on: 02/25/2011 07:42 AM »
That's well spotted baldusi! I've corrected the figures in my previous post.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #118 on: 03/03/2011 05:33 PM »
From Xinhua, China planning powerful carrier rocket for manned moon landing.

Very interesting.   I assume that the 130 ton(ne)s payload is to LEO, in which case it will probably include the trans-lunar injection stage: otherwise we could be looking at a Nova-class vehicle if 130 tonnes is the post-TLI payload.   Also, this figure suggests that the manned lunar landing will use a single launch, without the need of EOR or LOR to assemble the lunar spacecraft.   Of course, LOR would be used for an Apollo-profile mission.

Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #119 on: 03/04/2011 12:39 AM »
"China is studying the feasibility of designing " does not mean "planning".

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #120 on: 03/04/2011 05:48 AM »
Thanks for posting that Satori.

"The rocket is envisaged to have a payload of 130 tonnes"

That's the same payload mass that NASA wants for SLS. The Congress wants 130 tons which is 118 tonnes, the same as Saturn V.

"The diameter of the planned heavy-lifting rocket is expected to be two times that of the current largest one"

Well, that would be Plan D as that is the only vehicle with a 10 m diameter. I did some cost estimates of the various Plans for a production run of 15 vehicles. All prices in FY04 millions of dollars (I used the calculator at http://cost.jsc.nasa.gov/SVLCM.html )

            Plan A   Plan B   Plan C   Plan D
---------------------------------------------
Development  9,592   11,833   13,418   12,562
Production   7,834    8,090    8,658    7,449
---------------------------------------------
Total       17,426   19,923   22,076   20,011
Unit Cost      522      539      577      497
---------------------------------------------

Plan C is 10% more expensive than Plans B and D, so we can rule that out. Plan A has the cheapest cost, but I don't believe it can achieve a 50 t TLI payload. The first stage has the same mass as the Saturn V, but the second stage is using LOX/Kero instead of LOX/LH2. That leaves Plans B and D. Total cost is very close, but production cost of Plan D is 5% cheaper. That leaves Plan D as the logical choice.

I also did a costing of using four CZ-5 flights for each Lunar mission. That gave a total cost of $11,714M or $781M for each Lunar mission. Plan D becomes cheaper only after 29 further missions are performed. That is, the break even point is 44 missions.
« Last Edit: 03/04/2011 05:51 AM by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Satori

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #121 on: 03/08/2011 07:34 AM »

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #122 on: 03/11/2011 01:39 PM »
The Chinese plan seems to be: launch someone every three or four years, do that indefinitely, make big noises about vague future plans, and then a miracle happens and Chinese are walking on the Moon.

Yes, that looks essentially correct.  A less pejorative way to phrase it would be, "The Chinese plan is to systematically retire risk on a sustainable schedule, take pride in doing so, and rely on future technology developments to meet overall program objectives."

Doesn't it sound better phrased that way?  Wouldn't it be neat if the U.S. had a plan like that?

Late to the party, as usual.  I gotta say, Sdsds,  that was an excellent comparison of spin style.  I prefer your wording.

I don't know of anybody--maybe you do--who claims that it is not "possible" to send humans to the Moon using only EELV-class rockets.  The question is what is the "best" method of doing that.

Just chiming in here.  Of course it's possible.  Our guys just don't want to do it that way.  That document you posted sure looks to me like the Chinese have equalled the US in creation of powerpoints.  Maybe we shouldn't be "scared" after all?  Or should we?  Powerpoints can be "scary".
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #123 on: 09/17/2011 09:53 AM »
The presentation was made by Scott Pace after he left NASA, but it was clearly something that NASA had done.  I never asked for the NASA study, but presumably an enterprising researcher could try to get hold of it.

Several years ago NASA was directed by Congress to perform a review of the Chinese space program.  Apparently all they did was to collect up a bunch of news articles and present them to Congress, rather than to do an actual assessment themselves.  I therefore found this chart to be somewhat surprising, because it implied that NASA had indeed done some kind of assessment.

Just reviving this discussion ............ in view of the recent Chinese papers availavle on another thread here, I am looking anew at China's manned lunar programme options.   Does anyone have a copy of or a link to the Scott Pace/NASA study which is referred to?

Offline Dmitry_V_home

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #124 on: 09/17/2011 06:51 PM »
Chinese lunar ship

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #125 on: 09/17/2011 06:53 PM »

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #126 on: 09/17/2011 06:58 PM »


We need a translation of that ASAP! It looks very interesting indeed.

Am I reading 2025 as the date for the lunar landing?

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #127 on: 09/17/2011 07:15 PM »

Figure 5 shows the plan pretty clearly.  It's a three launch architecture, with two launches providing Earth departure stages and the third providing the payload that gets pushed through TLI.  After LEO assembly the TLI burn takes place on day 7, and on day 10 a dedicated stage is expended to insert into lunar orbit.  The lander returns to LLO on day 12 and is jettisoned; the Shenzhou-like spacecraft performs TEI and the capsule reenters.

But on the last page, what is it saying about AJ26??
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Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #128 on: 09/17/2011 07:45 PM »

Figure 5 shows the plan pretty clearly.  It's a three launch architecture, with two launches providing Earth departure stages and the third providing the payload that gets pushed through TLI.  After LEO assembly the TLI burn takes place on day 7, and on day 10 a dedicated stage is expended to insert into lunar orbit.  The lander returns to LLO on day 12 and is jettisoned; the Shenzhou-like spacecraft performs TEI and the capsule reenters.

Yes, I saw that. It would appear that this is a mission architecture based on an upgraded version of the future CZ-5 launcher (called CZ-5DY and equipped with 6 strap-on boosters instead of 4? And does it say 50mT to LEO? That would put it in the range of the Falcon Heavy... Interesting). Note the a), so it seems to be 1 proposal of two, the other being b) the superheavy lift rocket (2 designs, one with 4 LRBs and one with 4segmented SRBs?)

I'm also very interested in figure 9. It seems to be a sort of masterplan up to 2025 with space stations and unmanned lunar exploration up to the eventual landing. If so, it seems a bit outdated, because the thing that looks like Tiangong-1 should have flown in 2009-2010 according to this plan...
« Last Edit: 09/17/2011 07:47 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline Moe Grills

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #129 on: 09/17/2011 09:27 PM »
Chinese lunar ship

Looking at the illustration,
the Shenzhou-derived CSM appears way too small; and the Lunar lander appears way too large for such a combination to park in LLO.
The DeltaV for such a small CSM would be way too small for that to happen safely.

  However...I realize now that different Lunar mission strategies and techniques are possible.
Example: If the Lander (with crew onboard) separate from the CSM (with pilot onboard) while approaching the Moon, then the CSM & Lunar lander
could separately park in LLO; carry out Lunar orbital maneuvers to
harmonize their separate orbits; and then the lander and crew could descend to the surface.
 And both craft could have plenty of DeltaV to do it.
(i.e,; the CSM could have a DeltaV of +1800-2000m/s approaching the Moon; the Lander could have a DeltaV of + 4500m/s approaching the Moon.)

Offline savuporo

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #130 on: 09/18/2011 01:53 AM »
I tried uploading to google docs and translating there. The result is not much better, although _somewhat_ more interesting than hieroglyphs.

One bit that is comprehensible : whoever wrote this, has a clear idea of "why" go to the moon.
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Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #131 on: 09/18/2011 08:37 AM »

The three-launch mission profile looks to be a variant on the four-launch profile which Blackstar has credited to a study by Scott Pace in a previous posting on this thread.   So, I wonder how much Chinese authority this variant has?

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #132 on: 09/19/2011 02:31 PM »
Quote
"The rocket is envisaged to have a payload of 130 tonnes"

We're actually going to be "outsourcing" SLS.

Whoops, gotta go....
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #133 on: 09/25/2011 01:17 PM »

I have been playing around with the numbers for landing a Chinese crew on the Moon using four CZ-5 launches as proposed by Scott Pace (and quoted by Dwayne Day/Blackstar) and using three launches of the "CZ-5DY" vehicle as suggested in this paper.

Scott Pace's idea just about works, but the fuelled lunar lander comes to just over 12 tonnes compared with the Apollo lunar module's 15.1-16.4 tonnes.   This suggests a very basic vehicle - especially since the lunar module has serious mass problems - but still one more capable than the Soviet L-3 LK lander.

As far as the 50 tonnes to LEO "CZ-5DY" is concerned, does this exist outside this particular paper?   I have a feeling that it might simpy exist only in the author's imagination rather than being something that is being or has been studied by the Chinese.

Offline Dmitry_V_home

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #134 on: 09/26/2011 07:11 AM »

I think that while Chineses are at a stage of conceptual researches, no more. Therefore to perceive seriously these pictures while it is premature.

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #135 on: 09/26/2011 03:51 PM »

I think that while Chineses are at a stage of conceptual researches, no more. Therefore to perceive seriously these pictures while it is premature.

I am taking the heavy lift launch vehicle data as simply being indicative of what the Chinese are thinking, rather than being a hard and fast design.

I have managed a good mass model for the CZ-X with liquid strap-ons (I call it CZ-X-L) but the data I get for the solid strap-ons version (CZ-X-S) seems to come out too heavy.   Still playing with the numbers.

Offline Dmitry_V_home

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #136 on: 09/26/2011 06:57 PM »

By my calculations CZ-X-L can't deduce on a flight trajectory to the Moon weight more than 39-40 metric tons. If it is valid so, use of the second carrier (CZ-5) looks reasonably.

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #137 on: 09/26/2011 07:03 PM »
I am taking the heavy lift launch vehicle data as simply being indicative of what the Chinese are thinking, rather than being a hard and fast design.

I have managed a good mass model for the CZ-X with liquid strap-ons (I call it CZ-X-L) but the data I get for the solid strap-ons version (CZ-X-S) seems to come out too heavy.   Still playing with the numbers.

If they do decide to build a heavy lift launcher, I predict they will go for the liquid strap-on version. The Chinese have no experience whatsoever with large segmented solids. Plus, they seem, in general, to follow the Soviet/Russian path, which favors liquid boosters.

A Chinese heavy lift launch vehicle will more likely be a Chinese Energia than a Chinese SLS.

And that is not a bad choice, IMO.
« Last Edit: 09/26/2011 07:04 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline baldusi

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #138 on: 09/26/2011 07:28 PM »
I am taking the heavy lift launch vehicle data as simply being indicative of what the Chinese are thinking, rather than being a hard and fast design.

I have managed a good mass model for the CZ-X with liquid strap-ons (I call it CZ-X-L) but the data I get for the solid strap-ons version (CZ-X-S) seems to come out too heavy.   Still playing with the numbers.

If they do decide to build a heavy lift launcher, I predict they will go for the liquid strap-on version. The Chinese have no experience whatsoever with large segmented solids. Plus, they seem, in general, to follow the Soviet/Russian path, which favors liquid boosters.

A Chinese heavy lift launch vehicle will more likely be a Chinese Energia than a Chinese SLS.

And that is not a bad choice, IMO.
The new LM family strategy is to have 2.25m, 3.35m and 5.2m cores, and mix and match. So, a 5.2M core can be augmented with two 2.25m, two 3.35m cores, two 2.25m and 2.35 or four 3.35m. A natural extension would be a Heavy with at least two 5.2m booster cores. If they ever go to a wider core, I would obviously expect them to use the 5.2m cores as boosters. It's only too logical.

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #139 on: 10/01/2011 08:41 AM »
Of course, I know from experience in studying the Soviet space programme in the 1970s and 1980s it is far easier to calculate what might happen and invent imaginary space missions than it is to predict what might happen.

So, please bear this in mind with what follows.

Two CZ-5 launches, one with a fulled TLI stage, ~25 tonnes, and the second with a Tiangong class module with an LOI stage.   Dock the two in LEO and fly to selenocentric orbit.

Then follow Scott Pace's idea of two CZ-5 launches, one with a second TLI stage and the second with a beefed-up, lunar variant of Shenzhou with an LOI stage.   Again, docking in LEO and then fly to selenicentric orbit.

The Chinese could then have a small base in selenocentric orbit that would allow for long-duration crews in selenocentric orbit for the first time.   Maybe a month or so (compared with less than a week for Apollo, it's long duration!).

This could be an intermediate stage before the heavy lift launcher comes online for a Chinese landing, allowing a manned reconnaissance from selenocentric orbit.

Just a thought and no proof that this would happen, of course!

Offline Moe Grills

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #140 on: 10/01/2011 05:12 PM »
Of course, I know from experience in studying the Soviet space programme in the 1970s and 1980s it is far easier to calculate what might happen and invent imaginary space missions than it is to predict what might happen.

So, please bear this in mind with what follows.

Two CZ-5 launches, one with a fulled TLI stage, ~25 tonnes, and the second with a Tiangong class module with an LOI stage.   Dock the two in LEO and fly to selenocentric orbit.

Then follow Scott Pace's idea of two CZ-5 launches,

Hey, Phil! I don't want to blow my own horn, but I already posted a
similar concept on a previous post back there, if you care to look, in which two CZ-5's, two 25-tonne hypergolic propulsion modules, a beefed up Shenzhou & an open cockpit one-man lunar lander are used.

Quote
This could be an intermediate stage before the heavy lift launcher comes online for a Chinese landing, allowing a manned reconnaissance from selenocentric orbit.
(a 2500kg open cockpit one-man lunar-lander can go BEYOND that
scenario using two CZ-5's, and one additional medium launcher for a beefed up Shenzhou and the aforementioned lander.
Quote
Just a thought and no proof that this would happen, of course!

   Would you be surprised to learn there are professional lurkers from Communist China's space program fishing for different ideas and concepts (of possible benefit to China) on this website?

Offline i2000s

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #141 on: 11/03/2011 10:43 PM »
   Would you be surprised to learn there are professional lurkers from Communist China's space program fishing for different ideas and concepts (of possible benefit to China) on this website?


Don't worry. Some years later you might be happy to find that only can Communist China be able to make your idea come true.  ;)

Offline spectre9

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #142 on: 11/04/2011 03:28 AM »
Who knows how many lunar lander designs NASA has been through.

Only 1 ever got built.  :D

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #143 on: 11/04/2011 12:29 PM »
Who knows how many lunar lander designs NASA has been through.
Only 1 ever got built.  :D

Since the Chinese seem to plan for the long term, I would assume that their lunar lander will be more advanced than the Apollo lunar module, and will probably be closer to Altair (RIP) in its size and capabilities.   That way they don't have to abandon a design for a small lander and switch to a larger one after a few flights.

Offline spacebob

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #144 on: 11/06/2011 02:51 PM »
They're going to go to the moon without telling anybody. They'll announce it from the lunar surface.

Offline woods170

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #145 on: 11/06/2011 03:37 PM »
They're going to go to the moon without telling anybody. They'll announce it from the lunar surface.
Welcome to the forum. Bold statement for a first post. Got anything to back this up?

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #146 on: 11/07/2011 05:49 AM »
Here's the Chinese Lunar Module that was published in "On issues of China manned Lunar exploration," Missiles and Space Vehicles, Sum No. 310, No.6 2010. The return vehicle is a Russian Soyuz instead of the Chinese Shenzhou (the Shenzhou has a cylindrical orbital module) and the Lunar Module looks pretty much the same as the original Altair configuration, so this just looks like a cut and paste. As its so early in the Chinese Lunar program, the actual Chinese LM could be quite different. The Chinese may go for an Apollo LM look alike (with storable descent and ascent stages) or perhaps with the Russian system of having a kerolox crasher stage.
« Last Edit: 11/07/2011 06:04 AM by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #147 on: 11/07/2011 06:19 AM »
I am more than a little skeptical about a switch from the Shenzhou overall design to one that is closer allied to the Soyuz.

My guess is that the artist got the drawing wrong!   For one thing, the propulsion module is too small for the selenocentric orbit manoeuvres trans-Earth injection propellant - compare the original Soyuz with the Soyuz-LOK.

Now, if that lunar lander had been with a Shenzhou having a larger propulsion module then I am sure that it would be closer to the truth: assuming that "the truth" exists this early in the planning phase!

Offline spectre9

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #148 on: 11/07/2011 10:40 AM »
I would love to see China go to the moon.

Building a lunar lander is easier said than done.

I really enjoyed the episode of The Earth To Moon where they take you inside Grumman to see everything they had to go through to make it a reality.

I wish them all the best.  ;D

Offline zaarin

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #149 on: 11/08/2011 05:54 PM »
I really enjoyed the episode of The Earth To Moon where they take you inside Grumman to see everything they had to go through to make it a reality.

Apparently Grumman had to scrape away at nuts and bolts, chemically etch away at the LM's hull until it fit the weight requirements. That thing was like landing on the moon in a ship made from mom's kitchen foil!

What I want to know is why can't the US, Russia, Europe AND China all build a stack of rocket modules at the ISS and do a joint "International Lunar Mission"? Surely it would ease the financial burden of one country if we all worked together and instead of a Moon race like in the 60's it could be an international project just like the ISS has proved!
« Last Edit: 11/08/2011 05:58 PM by zaarin »

Offline LegendCJS

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #150 on: 11/08/2011 06:25 PM »
I really enjoyed the episode of The Earth To Moon where they take you inside Grumman to see everything they had to go through to make it a reality.

Apparently Grumman had to scrape away at nuts and bolts, chemically etch away at the LM's hull until it fit the weight requirements. That thing was like landing on the moon in a ship made from mom's kitchen foil!

What I want to know is why can't the US, Russia, Europe AND China all build a stack of rocket modules at the ISS and do a joint "International Lunar Mission"? Surely it would ease the financial burden of one country if we all worked together and instead of a Moon race like in the 60's it could be an international project just like the ISS has proved!

The expensive part of space hardware is design, testing, and certification that your piece works correctly with everything else.  I can't think of a better way to increase those costs than having a team composed of the three countries you mention all try to work together to build inter-operable and interdependent space hardware.
Remember: if we want this whole space thing to work out we have to optimize for cost!

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #151 on: 11/09/2011 01:30 PM »
Here's the Chinese Lunar Module that was published in "On issues of China manned Lunar exploration,"...

One thing I note about most lunar lander designs is that they are 4 legged truncated pyramids.  The DTAL lander is different.  And looking at Altair, it's hard not to say, "cut and paste".

I can't think of a better way to increase those costs than having a team composed of the three countries you mention all try to work together to build inter-operable and interdependent space hardware.

Certainly true, given that the current competitive mindset among the three countries doesn't seem likely to change.  But not true at all in principle, otherwise the word "cooperation" wouldn't be in the dictionary.  Obviously, ISS is an existing example of the success possible with international cooperation.  I fully expect the shallow objection: Define success.  I would then await the objector's contention that ISS is a failure.

Even in a cooperative mode, construction costs in the short term would rise, as standards of interoperability would have to be developed.  In some cases, tho, interoperability could be limited to the docking interface.  An approach like this would presuppose that the modules be independent in all but shared air pressure, power and communication, but that the safety  certification processes be well worked out.

Suppose a Chinese hotel module, attached to ISS.  For the sake of simplicity it may not have independent docking capability to the vacuum.  The guests might arrive on a Russian craft, and dock on the Russian section much as they do now.  Obviously, the guests would have to traverse the working areas on the way to their room, maybe asking questions along the way, and definitely not getting in the way while they're at it. 

This idea would suppose a common power and communication interface, which is not an impossibility.  There is absolutely no law of physics which would relate the political leanings of a democratic electron with a communist electron such that it would preclude, in all circumstances, a common power interface.  The only thing that would impair international cooperation, and add drastically to cost, is the action of the humans involved.

Point is, in principle, the slightly higher costs of cooperation at first should not preclude it from being considered at all, since the long term benefits would do nothing but better the human condition.  Problem of course is, that all the egos that would be involved these days are too big to fit in the airlock anyhow, so we don't have to worry about such an international cooperative effort for the time being.

As always, tho, I would prefer international peaceful cooperation.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Online luhai167

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #152 on: 01/01/2012 11:48 PM »
"Future Developments of Chinese Space Systems"
Another article on China's moon program. It's from the same guy that wrote the other article a few pages back. The author 龙乐豪, was chief engineer for CZ-3A and deputy program director for the current Chang'e program. It should be fairly creditable.

The same person also wrote the article on the 1st page of this thread back in 2008.

Edit: the main new point in the article is that the moon plan in fig 1 is a short term moon plan set in pre-2025 time frame. Using CZ-5DY as a mission specific mod of CZ-5 with LEO capability at 50t. Past 2030-2040 time frame a 130t LEO heavy lift rocket would be developed for a possible moon base or Mars missions.
« Last Edit: 01/02/2012 01:49 AM by luhai167 »

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #153 on: 01/02/2012 07:19 AM »
"Future Developments of Chinese Space Systems"
Another article on China's moon program. It's from the same guy that wrote the other article a few pages back. The author 龙乐豪, was chief engineer for CZ-3A and deputy program director for the current Chang'e program. It should be fairly creditable.
The same person also wrote the article on the 1st page of this thread back in 2008.
Edit: the main new point in the article is that the moon plan in fig 1 is a short term moon plan set in pre-2025 time frame. Using CZ-5DY as a mission specific mod of CZ-5 with LEO capability at 50t. Past 2030-2040 time frame a 130t LEO heavy lift rocket would be developed for a possible moon base or Mars missions.

Thank you for posting this - it is always interesting to see what the Chinese may be considering for their manned lunar programme.   Of course, I don't think that they are ready to actually commit to a particular way of going to the Moon yet - or for quite a few years.   It's rather like seeing the US proposals from the late 1950s, early 1960s before the Apollo LOR route with a single Saturn 5 was chosen.

Would you be kind enough to translate whatever details are given for the suggested CZ-5DY vehicle, please?

Online luhai167

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #154 on: 01/02/2012 11:39 PM »
Basically he is presenting options for a "what to do next" scenarios, and he is strongly advocating lunar exploration as a next. CZ-5DY would be cheap, feasible tool to achieve that goal in the near term (before 2025). After 2025, he envisions a Saturn 5 class heavy lift rocket for China. which would be used to establish a lunar base and a possible expedition to Mars.

to quote page 5
"CZ-5DY would have 5m diameter, 120t kerosene engine and 70t liquid hydrogen engine. It would 2 100t  liquid hydrogen and the lunar landing stage into LEO, and assembled there. The entire mission would be done in Wenchang, Hainan using existing (in 2020) facilities. "

CZ-5DY Specs
1x 1st stage:
Main rocket
Diameter 5m
4x120t kerosene engine

6xStrap-on boosters
Diameter 3.35m
2x120t kerosene engine each

2nd stage:
Diameter 5m
2x70t liquid hydrogen engine

Total system mass: 1600t
Total system length 70m
LEO capability of ~50t

The two stage lunar rocket(to be assembled in LEO) would have a single 100t liquid  hydrogen engine, length of 26m, diameter of 5m. Total of 30t capability to lunar orbit.

BTW, DY stands for Deng Yue, or lunar mission/landing. Given the recent white paper, it seems China went for the short term route. And this method may very well be adopted.

Specs for proposed heavy rocket as follows, which would be used in 2030-2060 time frame:
9m diameter
650t class kerosene engines for first stage.
number of engines for first stage would be between 4-8, with 4 being more preferable.
3.35m or 5m Solid boosters, 650t each.
200t class liquid hydrogen engines for 2nd stage
LEO capability greater than 130t.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2012 12:04 AM by luhai167 »

Offline spacex

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #155 on: 01/22/2012 08:56 PM »

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #156 on: 01/23/2012 08:25 AM »
The two stage lunar rocket (to be assembled in LEO) would have a single 100t liquid  hydrogen engine, length of 26m, diameter of 5m. Total of 30t capability to lunar orbit.

I'm not fully understanding 30t to lunar orbit.  Does this mean 30t sent through trans-lunar injection?  I'm envisioning a ~50t Earth-departure stage sending ~30t towards the Moon (Isp 446 s; delta-v 3300 m/s).  Part of that 30t would need to be e.g. a ~10t hypergolic lunar-orbit insertion stage (Isp 324 s; delta-v 1100 m/s).  So that's only ~20t that reaches lunar orbit.

Still, that's enough for a lunar orbit research station as massive as a Shenzhou and a Tiangong combined!
-- sdsds --

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #157 on: 01/23/2012 10:42 AM »
to quote page 5
"CZ-5DY would have 5m diameter, 120t kerosene engine and 70t liquid hydrogen engine. It would 2 100t  liquid hydrogen and the lunar landing stage into LEO, and assembled there. The entire mission would be done in Wenchang, Hainan using existing (in 2020) facilities. "

The CZ-5DY is a CZ-5 that replaces the 5m hydrolox core with a 4-engined kerolox first stage (together with an extra pair of LRBs) and a new, more powerful hydrolox second stage. This would double payload to LEO, moving from the Delta 4 Heavy to the Falcon Heavy range.

This project is pretty much what we would be doing if we went for a SpaceX-based lunar return architecture. IMO, for a simple objective (repeating Apollo, i.e. flags-and-footprints), this is the best and cheapest way forward.

Politically, for China that would be sufficient to prove the world it could match the USA in its finest hour. By chosing the CZ-5DY approach, they could do it for much cheaper. And later on decide to not pursue the lunar base path (if the USA renouces), and never build the Superheavy.

However, please note that no decision to build the CZ-5DY been taken.
So it's just another powerpoint rocket until further notice...
« Last Edit: 01/23/2012 10:47 AM by aquanaut99 »

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #158 on: 01/23/2012 10:49 AM »
Still, that's enough for a lunar orbit research station as massive as a Shenzhou and a Tiangong combined!

Also enough for a simple, barebones lander. Heck, they could even think about a 1-manned open "hopper-type" lander where the pilot wears his suit all the time. Just for putting a man and a flag on the moon, that would be enough...

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #159 on: 01/23/2012 12:25 PM »
Still, that's enough for a lunar orbit research station as massive as a Shenzhou and a Tiangong combined!
Also enough for a simple, barebones lander. Heck, they could even think about a 1-manned open "hopper-type" lander where the pilot wears his suit all the time. Just for putting a man and a flag on the moon, that would be enough...

This idea seems to suggest that the Chinese would do a simple "token" manned landing on the Moon, but I do not believe this to be the case.

The Chinese always seem to be thinking in the long-term for its space programme: for example, Project 921 produced not "a man in a can" but a modern space station ferry from the outset: of course, the Chinese have been able to draw upon the experiences of the Russians and Americans when planning their programme.

When the Chinese go to the Moon I don't believe we will see a token mission.   Maybe the first one or two will be like Apollos 11-14, but I feel sure that the Chinese are seriously eyeing a lunar base, in which case the programme's infrastructure will have this built-in from the beginning.

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #160 on: 01/23/2012 01:06 PM »
This idea seems to suggest that the Chinese would do a simple "token" manned landing on the Moon, but I do not believe this to be the case.

The Chinese always seem to be thinking in the long-term for its space programme: for example, Project 921 produced not "a man in a can" but a modern space station ferry from the outset: of course, the Chinese have been able to draw upon the experiences of the Russians and Americans when planning their programme.

When the Chinese go to the Moon I don't believe we will see a token mission.   Maybe the first one or two will be like Apollos 11-14, but I feel sure that the Chinese are seriously eyeing a lunar base, in which case the programme's infrastructure will have this built-in from the beginning.

Maybe. Understand, however, that what the Chinese space establishment wishes for is different from what the Politbureau is willing to fund.

All the talk about moon bases is stuff from the Chinese space program's wish list. Kinda like what NASA wished for (with AAP) during the Apollo program.

From what I've observed, the Chinese leadership is, at best, lukewarm about manned space exploration (which was Jiang Zemin's pet project and he was more or less ousted some years ago). Their primary goal is to show that China is a great power, equal to the USA. In the domain of spaceflight, that would best be accomplished by equaling the USA's greatest space achievment. With the advantage of doing it cheaper, by profiting from past knowledge and avoiding some major mistakes.

A permanent lunar base would be a whole different ball game. Assuming the USA doesn't go first, the Chinese would have to go it alone and do all the trial-and-error themselves. There would be no possibility to copy. And somehow I doubt that a lukewarm Politbureau would be willing to fund such an ambitious and expensive project with no real tangible geopolitical or financial benefits on Earth.

To sum it up, I don't think Chinese politicians are all that much different from their US counterparts...
« Last Edit: 01/23/2012 01:07 PM by aquanaut99 »

Offline incantado2012

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #161 on: 01/23/2012 04:13 PM »
From my understanding, I believe this is not PR stuff. It is very rare for a Chinese high-level scientist to write PR stuff.  Several points need to make:

1) Former Chinese President Jiang Zeming was not ousted. He could only run at most two terms and he ran two full terms (10-year). He resumed a lot of programs suspended earlier by previous presidents mainly because of priority issue(funding  issue).

2) Chinese presidents have welcomed the space exploration since Chairman Mao. This is the dream lies in Chinese history, especially if you understand the Chinese literature and poems. It will be a legacy to be remembered if any president could send human to the moon.

3) Chinese presidents are quite different from US presidents. Most Chinese presidents now are from engineering background and most US presidents are lawyers. I believe people know the difference between engineers and lawyers.

Just my three cents.


Offline Danderman

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #162 on: 01/23/2012 04:38 PM »
To repeat, the Chinese have no plans to land anyone on the Moon. Debating about the nature of a program that does not exist is rather pointless, because if the Chinese ever do decide to have a lunar landing program, the context of that decision will be much more important than anything else.


Online Robotbeat

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #163 on: 01/23/2012 06:03 PM »
To repeat, the Chinese have no plans to land anyone on the Moon. Debating about the nature of a program that does not exist is rather pointless, because if the Chinese ever do decide to have a lunar landing program, the context of that decision will be much more important than anything else.
If we see a picture of a ground-test article of a lunar lander, then we know they are serious. Or if they start building a launch vehicle that can serve no other realistic purpose other than exploration. Another powerpoint isn't proving anything.

I would love for China to make a Moon landing attempt. It would most likely help NASA's chances for an ambitious mission like one to Mars to actually be funded. Or I suppose we could settle for a Moon landing. Either way, it would have a good chance of breaking the status quo of a flat budget for NASA. But I'm not going to get my hopes up unless there's something more than powerpoints for a Chinese Moon landing.

BTW, the article ( http://www.sinodefence.com/lunarexploration/manned-lunar-landing.asp ) does do a good job in saying that the approach for the first Chinese Moon landing hasn't been decided between a 100+ton launch vehicle and a multiple-launch approach using EELV-class launch vehicles.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2012 06:07 PM by Robotbeat »
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #164 on: 01/23/2012 07:55 PM »
To repeat, the Chinese have no plans to land anyone on the Moon.

It sure seemed to me that they do, based on the handful of translated articles I've read. 

From my understanding, I believe this is not PR stuff. ...

1) Former Chinese President Jiang Zeming was not ousted. ...

2) Chinese presidents have welcomed the space exploration since Chairman Mao. ... It will be a legacy to be remembered if any president could send human to the moon.

3) Chinese presidents are quite different from US presidents. Most Chinese presidents now are from engineering background and most US presidents are lawyers. I believe people know the difference between engineers and lawyers.

Just my three cents.

Not a bad post at all.

With my two cents, you'll have a nickle.  But remember, don't take any wooden nickles!

I'll stick with my prediction:  The Chinese will do what they can do in space.  If they want to put someone on the Moon, like they've said they want to, they have a lotta work to do.  So do we.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #165 on: 01/23/2012 08:03 PM »
If the Chinese have a Moon program, then we have a Mars program, an asteroid program, and a Moon program at the same time. Heck, throw in a Jupiter program while you're at it.

China is funding preliminary (paper) studies on going to the Moon. That is all. I'd love for them to step up their Moon plans. FAR from being a "threat" to NASA, it'd be an enormous boon.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2012 08:06 PM by Robotbeat »
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #166 on: 01/23/2012 11:31 PM »
If the Chinese have a Moon program, then we have a Mars program, an asteroid program, and a Moon program at the same time. Heck, throw in a Jupiter program while you're at it.

Throw in V-ger, and we also have an interstellar program.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2012 11:32 PM by JohnFornaro »
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline sdsds

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #167 on: 01/24/2012 05:17 AM »
If we see a picture of a ground-test article of a lunar lander, then we know they are serious. Or if they start building a launch vehicle that can serve no other realistic purpose other than exploration.

I'm not certain we can use those as measures of whether a program is serious.  We saw no ground test article of the CxP LSAM.  NASA did not start building Ares V.  Yet CxP was a serious attempt at human lunar exploration, albeit a failed one.

(This isn't a claim that China is as far along in their effort as CxP was.  They're obviously not.)
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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #168 on: 01/24/2012 03:46 PM »
If we see a picture of a ground-test article of a lunar lander, then we know they are serious. Or if they start building a launch vehicle that can serve no other realistic purpose other than exploration.

I'm not certain we can use those as measures of whether a program is serious.  We saw no ground test article of the CxP LSAM.  NASA did not start building Ares V.  Yet CxP was a serious attempt at human lunar exploration, albeit a failed one.

(This isn't a claim that China is as far along in their effort as CxP was.  They're obviously not.)
CxP wasn't a serious mission to the Moon, it was a serious attempt to get into LEO. They spent an inordinate amount of time, effort, and funding on Ares I and Orion. From the final show of things, Constellation never did develop a lander for there never was the budget for it. It stayed in the powerpoint stage, and still is and may remain there for at least another decade.

But at least for CxP, a serious attempt WAS made to develop the specialized lander engine (highly throttleable RL-10, also made to run on methane). We have no evidence of a similarly significant effort in that direction from the Chinese. And developing a very highly throttleable lander engine (thrust levels able to go down to 20% are necessary, but Apollo's lander engine could go down to even 10%) is not trivial.

I stand by my statement. CxP never made it to a manned Moon landing, did it?
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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #169 on: 04/09/2013 04:13 AM »
Some information from AW&ST

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_03_25_2013_p30-561101.xml&p=2

"The state space industry is scheduled during the current five-year planning period, 2011-15, to request government approval to develop a launcher for manned Moon missions, China Daily says in the same report. Since that planning period is already well underway, the industry must hope to launch full-scale development no earlier than 2016. The Moon rocket, with an 8-meter diameter, would loft 100 tons to low Earth orbit, making it smaller than the U.S. Saturn V used in the 1960s and 1970s. The Tianjin space manufacturing base has been sized for diameters up to 10 meters."

Previous reports has the CZ-9 at 130 t payload into LEO.
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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #170 on: 11/07/2016 07:42 AM »
Latest update on CZ-9 from China Space News, which is called Long March Heavy here. Performance is about 125 t. The vehicle is about 100 m high and is 10 m in diameter (the same as Saturn V). They say performance will be greater than SLS, but perhaps that is referring to Block IB which is claimed to put 105 t to LEO. The article says the vehicle is currently in development with critical technologies to be ready by 2020 (if my interpretation was correct).

"After the successful launch of Long March 5, the next members in Long March series will be Long March 8 and Long March Heavy. Mr. Lei expressed that China will keep increasing the investment in launch vehicle development. In the future, Long March family will add new commercial launchers. Heavy launch vehicle with over hundred ton capability is now in the critical development stage.

Mr. Lei said, "Our target is to complete the new generation launch vehicle system, perform maiden flight of Long March 8, and breakthrough the key technology in heavy launch vehicle by 2020."

According to the plan, heavy launch will have 10 m diameter and approximately 100 m length, and it will have 5 times launch capacity as the current launcher, and will have more launch capacity than SLS. The heavy launcher will fulfill Human Moon Exploration, Mars Sample Return, Solar system planet exploration and many other deep space exploration missions."
« Last Edit: 11/07/2016 07:43 AM by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline redliox

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #171 on: 11/07/2016 08:28 AM »
According to the plan, heavy launch will have 10 m diameter and approximately 100 m length, and it will have 5 times launch capacity as the current launcher, and will have more launch capacity than SLS. The heavy launcher will fulfill Human Moon Exploration, Mars Sample Return, Solar system planet exploration and many other deep space exploration missions."

Sounds like, especially with a goal of 2020 (which beats SLS' manned deadline), they're passive-aggressively challenging NASA.
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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #172 on: 11/07/2016 09:37 AM »
What a pity the U.S, China, Japan and Europe can't all work together in building an International Lunar Outpost. With Long March 9, SLS, U.S. Commercial heavy lift and enhanced Ariane 6; there would be more than enough lifting capacity to go round! :(  And if that venture worked out - they could push on to Mars :)

Nice dream, eh...? :(
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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #173 on: 11/07/2016 12:58 PM »
What a pity indeed.  We would have to stop waging elective war, in order to afford it.
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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #174 on: 11/07/2016 02:16 PM »
I seriously hope they get over the heavier lift fixation, and just do an Apollo 8 with LM-5
Slim chance tho
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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #175 on: 11/07/2016 03:59 PM »
According to the plan, heavy launch will have 10 m diameter and approximately 100 m length, and it will have 5 times launch capacity as the current launcher, and will have more launch capacity than SLS. The heavy launcher will fulfill Human Moon Exploration, Mars Sample Return, Solar system planet exploration and many other deep space exploration missions."

Sounds like, especially with a goal of 2020 (which beats SLS' manned deadline), they're passive-aggressively challenging NASA.
I read that as saying that the key technologies needed for the Heavy will be developed by 2020. The rocket itself will not be ready by then. I could be wrong in how I read that though.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #176 on: 11/07/2016 04:10 PM »
The Chinese have consistently predicted that the CZ-9 will start flying around 2030.

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #177 on: 11/08/2016 05:22 AM »
The Chinese have consistently predicted that the CZ-9 will start flying around 2030.

In the media conference after CZ-5, Secretary-general of CNSA specified it'll before 2030, the exact quote is "...around 2030, actually before 2030" IIRC. Design details of CZ-9 should finalised by 2020, informations are pointing maiden at 27-28(unconfirmed ofc).
« Last Edit: 11/08/2016 05:24 AM by cjx007 »

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #178 on: 01/16/2017 11:42 AM »
a Chinese paper on research for a manned lunar lander:

Design and Development of Landing Gear Technology for Manned Lunar Landing
http://jdse.bit.edu.cn/sktcxben/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160310&flag=1

Quote
A landing gear for manned lunar landing was designed base on the dynamic analysis of landing impact. System simulation analysis and calculation for lunar landing gear was done including the dynamics analysis, vibration response analysis and impact analysis of landing. The full-scale principle prototype of landing gear for manned lunar landing was established with the designing and simulation results, experimental verification was done base on the analysis and optimization result. The development laid the technical foundation for the large gathering ratio, large size, heavy weight, low overload of manned lunar landing gear.

the paper includes some nice pictures of the actual hardware being tested

Offline savuporo

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #179 on: 01/16/2017 06:33 PM »
Nice find, attaching the paper and picture pages. note its from 2015
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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #180 on: 01/17/2017 03:13 AM »
Extracted images from the article.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #181 on: 02/01/2017 07:10 AM »
Comparison of the latest drawing of CZ-9 with that from 2016. We can see a different engine arrangement on the core. LEO payload is still the same at 140 t, LTO (Lunar Transfer Orbit) the same at 50 t, but MTO (Mars Transfer Orbit) has decreased from 44 t to 37 t. Perhaps the later case is assuming the worse case Mars window.
« Last Edit: 02/01/2017 07:12 AM by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #182 on: 06/14/2017 03:32 AM »
AWST have finally caught up. First flight of CZ-9 could be in 2028 with the presumably the landing in 2030.

“We are mainly talking about a first flight around 2028-30,” Lu told reporters at the Global Space Exploration Conference here. “The rocket is for deep space missions and especially for setting up a lunar base for manned missions.”

http://aviationweek.com/space/chinas-calt-aims-fly-proposed-long-march-9-moon-rocket-2030
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #183 on: 06/19/2017 04:30 PM »
Quote
How a Soviet Lander Could Help Chinese Astronauts Reach the Moon
Shelved more than 40 years ago, the Soviet LK lander could help build the space boat that ferries China's astronauts to the Moon.

By Anatoly Zak Jun 19, 2017

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26975/china-soviet-lander-lk/
« Last Edit: 06/19/2017 04:30 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #184 on: 06/19/2017 04:46 PM »
Quote
How a Soviet Lander Could Help Chinese Astronauts Reach the Moon
Shelved more than 40 years ago, the Soviet LK lander could help build the space boat that ferries China's astronauts to the Moon.
By Anatoly Zak Jun 19, 2017
http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26975/china-soviet-lander-lk/

No proof of course, but I believe that the Chinese (wo-)manned lander will be more capable than either the Soviet LK or the American LM.

Offline savuporo

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #185 on: 06/19/2017 06:59 PM »
So, Blok-E with RD-858 or Dnepr derivative version of it ?
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Offline Archibald

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #186 on: 06/20/2017 06:46 PM »
Quote
How a Soviet Lander Could Help Chinese Astronauts Reach the Moon
Shelved more than 40 years ago, the Soviet LK lander could help build the space boat that ferries China's astronauts to the Moon.

By Anatoly Zak Jun 19, 2017

http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a26975/china-soviet-lander-lk/

Things coming full circle. I didn't knew that the LK engine had been repurposed for upper stages. Then again, so was the LM TR-201 on Delta. Good engines never die.

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Re: China's manned Moon plans
« Reply #187 on: 07/14/2017 10:37 AM »
The IAC2017 paper schedule is out. The last paper in this list might be on CZ-9 as the previous paper is on CZ-5 and CZ-7.

"The research on development of China's heavy launch vehicle" Dr. Tong Qin, Beijing institute of Astronautical Systems Engineering

https://iafastro.directory/iac/browse/IAC-17/D2/1/

Some other Chinese Moon related papers. I'll be presenting in this session as well.

"Architecture Design and Analysis of an Reusable Cislunar Transportation System from LEO Space Station." Mr. Zilong Cheng, National University of Defense Technology

"Manned Lunar Landing Mission Scale Analysis and Flight Scheme Selection Based on Mission Architecture Matrix," Prof. Xiaohui Wang, Beihang University

https://iafastro.directory/iac/browse/IAC-17/D2/8-A5.4/
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

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