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General Discussion => Polls Section => Topic started by: Lar on 12/12/2016 07:09 PM

Title: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 12/12/2016 07:09 PM
This is a companion poll to the number of flights poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0
Consult that poll for history, manifest predictions, etc....

Here as well is last year's version of THIS poll : http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0

For the purposes of this poll an "intact core returned" or "successfully landed first stage" means that the stage returned from boost and executed a landing in which it did not topple over, blow up, strike on impact, or disintegrate. There has to be a picture of the stage standing erect and at rest. If it immediately topples after that, or is damaged in handling it still counts.  If SpaceX reuses a stage and lands it again, each successful landing of the stage counts as a returned core.

The landing can be RTLS or on an ASDS or some as yet unspecified thing (I'll modify this if that happens)

Note that a Falcon Heavy has 3 cores. It's possible that 0, 1, 2, or 3 could be returned successfully. it's possible that some do a RTLS and some land on an ASDS. Each core that landed successfully counts as one core. Each core expended, whether by choice, or by accident, or that fails to remain upright and stationary long enough to get a picture, counts as zero.

Just as with the number of flights poll, suborbital tests do not count. That is the following things don't count: a launch abort test, a first stage only launch test, a test at Spaceport America if that comes to pass...  the stage has to be one that participated in a mission intended to be orbital.  Whether the mission itself is a success doesn't matter. The second stage can blow up one second after MECO (or even before, although surviving that and returning might be a bit harder) and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Hopefully that makes things clear. You may not agree with my definitions, or wish they were different but these are the ones being used so take that into account. These are the same definitions as last year.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 12/16/2016 07:34 PM
I went 16 launches.

They demonstrated cadence at the Cape before the mishap, if they can quickly get back to that cadence, and propagate that to Vandy, 16 won't be hard at all... as long as there isn't another mishap.  Of that I think two will be FH.  So that's 14+6 first stages, and I think 80% recovery of those is not unreasonable, so I went 16 recovered stages too.

16 stages recovered...
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Barrie on 12/16/2016 07:39 PM
10 recoveries of the 15 launches I guessed at.  A few mishaps, and some deliberate sacrifices for extra performance.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/17/2016 05:08 AM
10 recoveries of the 15 launches I guessed at.  A few mishaps, and some deliberate sacrifices for extra performance.

I agree with your reasons for adjustment but I have different numbers. I think 19 cores (15 launches including two FH). Don't see any performance sacrifice being necessary with FH but central core may be tricky so I'll say 5 out of 6 cores recovered. For the other 13 cores I'd say 3 lost for performance and 3 due to mishaps (probably at least one re-used core in there) so that's 7 more recovered for a total of 12.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: ZachS09 on 12/17/2016 06:15 AM
7 out of 10 is a good majority for my predictions, so I went with 7 successful landings and 3 RUDs; one of the RUDs might be one of the Falcon Heavy cores on its demo flight. I'm guessing one of the boosters could have an issue while the other booster and the central core make it in one piece each.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: cro-magnon gramps on 12/17/2016 06:53 AM
I said 13 launches including FH, so 15 cores, and giving a bit better than 50/50 success rate, that is 8 landings that the refurbishment team  ::) get to practice on...
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Ixian77 on 12/17/2016 12:31 PM
10 out of 17 for me, no research involved..............
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: hop on 12/17/2016 08:22 PM
Voted 10 of 12. I was surprised both by the number of attempts and successes in 2016, don't expect FH to fly in 2017.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: vapour_nudge on 12/17/2016 08:41 PM
9 from 14
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: deadman719 on 12/17/2016 08:54 PM
8 out of 12.

I think sea conditions could result in a couple of landings being water landings. A couple of others may touch down a little too fast/hard.

Rob
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Kaputnik on 12/17/2016 10:51 PM
9 landings from 11 launched cores. I think FH won't fly next year.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: pippin on 12/17/2016 11:57 PM
I went with 13 flights, one of them an FH that makes 15 cores.
I don't see them have any failures because they're probably going to be more careful in 2017, can't really afford to lose another mission.

But I also don't see them bring home all cores even though the landing looked good recently so 11 shall be the number.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 12/18/2016 12:59 AM
Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 12/18/2016 02:16 AM
Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
How is this a bingo game? Not quite clear on that
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 12/18/2016 06:02 AM
Voted 15 launches and 10 recovered cores.
The second is even a wilder guess than the first.
This looks like a great bingo game.  Are you listening HeloDriver and DanW?
How is this a bingo game? Not quite clear on that
Row would be launches
Columns would be landings
(Some combinations wouldn't make sense, but people picked invalid combos on the landing bingo which didn't make sense, either.)
Just a thought.

Edit: It doesn't appear that any two people have made the same two choices.  Like the bingo game.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 12/18/2016 12:46 PM
25 F9 + 2 FH = 29 cores - 1 failure = 28 cores recovered.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Earendil on 12/18/2016 05:35 PM
Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: MikeAtkinson on 12/18/2016 05:40 PM
 
Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

You sure are, one more core landed than launched! ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Earendil on 12/18/2016 06:03 PM
Considering I voted 15 launches (one of which FH), I predict 18 landed cores.
0 lost.

Feeling really optimistic about 2017 :)

You sure are, one more core landed than launched! ;)

LOL, I'm going back to 1st grade :) :o
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: ElGuapoGuano1 on 12/18/2016 07:02 PM
I guessed only 8 launches in '17 with no falcon heavy.  6 successful landings.  1 being the relaunched booster.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: MP99 on 12/18/2016 07:07 PM
I voted 10, though I didn't look into the spread of likely RTLS/ASDS/expended launches - so a bit arbitrary.

The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts.

BTW, I believe this condition is arbitrary and unnecessary. If an F9 or FH second stage blows up before MECO but a booster nevertheless makes it to a safe landing, then I'm claiming it and you'd be mean, mean, mean to deny me! :-)

Note that Blue's booster survived the abort test and landed OK despite expectation that it wouldn't.

cheers, Martin
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 12/19/2016 12:23 AM
I voted 10, though I didn't look into the spread of likely RTLS/ASDS/expended launches - so a bit arbitrary.

The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts.

BTW, I believe this condition is arbitrary and unnecessary. If an F9 or FH second stage blows up before MECO but a booster nevertheless makes it to a safe landing, then I'm claiming it and you'd be mean, mean, mean to deny me! :-)

Note that Blue's booster survived the abort test and landed OK despite expectation that it wouldn't.

cheers, Martin

Quote
The second stage can blow up one second after MECO (or even before, although surviving that and returning might be a bit harder) and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Fixed
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: whitelancer64 on 12/19/2016 06:05 PM
Voted 11
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: pikawaka on 12/20/2016 02:11 PM
Voted for 16. In the number of launches poll, I said there would be 17 launches this year, with 1 Falcon Heavy flight. So 16 cores recovered out of 20. 3 are lost on heavy GTO missions similar to SES-9. Falcon Heavy's core is intentionally expended to demonstrate performance necessary for Red Dragon missions.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Billium on 12/20/2016 06:11 PM
I voted 18 launches in 2017, so I'm going to guess 50% stick the landing. Also it is an odd number, and we need more of those in these polls.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: AndrewM on 12/20/2016 06:35 PM
13, I voted for 15 launches but I expect a few to either not attempt recovery or not land successfully. I also think 2 of 3 of the 1st FH stages will safely land.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: John Alan on 12/20/2016 08:08 PM
I was going to go with 21-25... then talked myself down to 19...   :P

I'm assuming things go well...  ::)

I went with 20+ landings in this poll...
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: bolun on 12/20/2016 08:38 PM
12 recoveries from 13 launches (1st FH will be "all expendable").
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Mader Levap on 12/24/2016 01:20 PM
This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P Potential for relaunches additionally complicates things.

I voted 14 for launches in general and no FH. With assumption that 2/3 of landings will be successful, it gives, rounding up, 10. Four will either crash/fall/topple on barge or wont be tried in first place for whatever reason (weather, launch of fully expendable F9 etc).
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: deltaV on 12/24/2016 11:41 PM
This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P

I agree. IMO it would be better if this poll were about the fraction of cores landed, not the absolute number.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 12/25/2016 03:31 AM
This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P

I agree. IMO it would be better if this poll were about the fraction of cores landed, not the absolute number.

I suppose someone could start that one, but it seems somehow... easier. :)  Put your thinking caps on and quit whining :)
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: zappatosin on 01/11/2017 01:42 AM
8 out of 10 recoveries succeed.

I'm optimistic about the core of their business model. :)

It's the pad and range limitations that bring my launch expectations down to 11 for 2017.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Mark S on 01/13/2017 03:20 PM
In the other (number of launches) poll, I voted 11 launches, and I don't expect one of them to be FH (it's just not a priority). I assume a good recovery rate, and assume that some high performance launches will not even attempt to recover the first stage.

Therefore, I voted eight first stages will be successfully recovered this year. I hope I'm not being overly optimistic again. :(

Cheers!
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: llanitedave on 01/14/2017 04:52 AM
I voted 10 and I hope that's pessimistic.  If not, what do I win?
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/14/2017 06:35 PM
The count is now 1 with a successful launch and landing of the first Iridium sat set. A note is that there was 0 scrubs and launch occurred on first attempt with also successful 1st stage landing. Next up is LC-39A with Echostar-23 for a Jan 26 launch.

My vote was 20 or more launches and landings this year with nearly an average of 2 a month. This is mainly because of the expected up to 8 launches from SLC-4E. With 12 from LC-39A and a possible 1 or 2 from a rebuilt SLC-40.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: deltaV on 01/17/2017 01:54 PM
I voted 17 launches (in the other thread) and 13 core recoveries.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Comga on 01/19/2017 03:35 AM
Despite the early success, voting has slowed or stopped.
The best fit value actually fell over time from 10.5 to 9.5.
That's a pretty big fraction of the bet fit number of launches of 13.5.  As a group we think SpaceX has this landing technolgy worked out.
Variance actually came down in the end, despite the success last Saturday.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: sdsds on 01/19/2017 08:33 AM
As a group we think SpaceX has this landing technolgy worked out.

And/or we think one launch will account for three returned cores.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: PerW on 01/19/2017 09:27 AM
I voted 13 launches in 2017, and guess 11 successful landed cores.
They made it look easy on the 14th January, and the pictures are magic! (a given picture to my desktop background)
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 07/02/2017 10:36 PM
my vote of 16 is looking a tad optimistic at this point.... but I'm OK with that.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: AbuSimbel on 07/06/2017 01:13 PM
my vote of 16 is looking a tad optimistic at this point.... but I'm OK with that.
Maybe, but considering they're becoming very good at this and that all the remaining missions for this year may fly reusable... we could get there with 'just' 6 more flights plus the FH demo  ;)
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: oldAtlas_Eguy on 07/07/2017 01:22 PM
I voted 20+.

So with 7 so far and the other 3 EXPD, it will take another 12 which includes the FH demo to get to 20 since 1 of those 14 may be an EXPD flight. Another 12 is actually currently reasonable number for the rest of the year. The turning point is when will LC-40 launch Sept? Oct? Later? The longer the pad is delayed the lower the chances of both a FH demo flight this year and for other launches a combined LC-39A and LC-40 to reach 7 launches for Aug thru Dec.

It is a wait and see on the restoration of LC-40.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Eagandale4114 on 08/25/2017 12:59 AM
Currently sitting at 9.
Probable recovery attempts via this (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0) thread
OTV 5
Iridium 3
Koreasat-5
Iridium 4
FH Demo
CRS 13
SES 16
Bangabadhu
Paz


So far this year if SpaceX attempted a landing they did land. If all these missions launch this year (and FH doesn't blow up), they will get 11 more landings this year for a total of 20 landings.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: vapour_nudge on 08/26/2017 04:09 AM
So that's me out of the count now, I voted 9. It is very unlikely that it won't increase in the remaining months of the calendar year- and my conservative (perhaps pessimistic) outlook was clearly wrong.

This is good news if they keep surprising us in this way... well they surprised me at least.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Lar on 08/26/2017 05:15 AM
Looks like my 16 has a good chance if there is significant manifest slippage, but will (barely) undershoot if they keep up the 2.5 week cadence... and undershoot more if they pick up the pace. (the FH launch, if it happens, hurts me as it gets 3 landings! :) )
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: AncientU on 08/26/2017 10:11 AM
Looks like my 16 has a good chance if there is significant manifest slippage, but will (barely) undershoot if they keep up the 2.5 week cadence... and undershoot more if they pick up the pace. (the FH launch, if it happens, hurts me as it gets 3 landings! :) )

I've also chosen 16 and think it might be an underestimate.  FH may destroy our guestimate -- don't mind going out that way.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: rockets4life97 on 08/27/2017 02:09 PM
The landings are becoming routine. That was much faster then I (and it looks like most people based on this poll) predicted.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: llanitedave on 08/27/2017 05:49 PM
I voted 10, and it looks like I'll be wrong too.  I'm ecstatic about that!
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: Eagandale4114 on 10/12/2017 12:40 AM
Currently sitting at 9.
Probable recovery attempts via this (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0) thread
OTV 5
Iridium 3
Koreasat-5
Iridium 4
FH Demo
CRS 13
SES 16
Bangabadhu
Paz


So far this year if SpaceX attempted a landing they did land. If all these missions launch this year (and FH doesn't blow up), they will get 11 more landings this year for a total of 20 landings.

Now at 12 landings. The probable recovery attempts via this (http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0) thread

Koreasat 5A
CRS 13
Iridium 4

I think we will get 15 landings this year. If FH does fly late this year we might get 18 but that seems unlikely.
Title: Re: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?
Post by: intrepidpursuit on 10/25/2017 07:47 PM
16 seems like the most likely number now the Zuma in the works and FH slipping. What is perhaps more important than the number is that there have been no landing failures since Eutelsat in Q2 2016, and only three ditched cores in 15 flights. Landings are completely operational including dedicated refurbishment facilities and operational reflights. I was a bit disillusioned last year by Amos-6, but SpaceX has definitely followed through this year (except for FH).

I voted 12, thinking that they would have fewer total launches and the Falcon Heavy would fly.