Author Topic: Iranian Space  (Read 837097 times)

Offline Liss

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #300 on: 10/19/2012 09:02 am »
Iran issued another NOTAM for the Semnan area:

Quote
A2972/12 - GUN FIRING WILL TAKE PLACE WI AREA ? 3440N 05330E 3435N 05350E 3513N 05351E. GND - UNL, OCT 19 TO 22/0530-0830 AND 1130-1330, 19 OCT 05:30 2012 UNTIL 22 OCT 13:30 2012. CREATED: 17 OCT 08:36 2012

in addition to a previous one with a larger set of dates:

Quote
A2874/12 - GUN FIRING WILL TAKE PLACE WI AREA : 3440N 05330E 3435N 05350E 3513N 05351E. GND - UNL, OCT 16 TO 18 AND OCT 29 TO 31, NOV 08 TO 10 AND NOV 14 TO 16 AND NOV 21 TO 23, JAN 12 TO 14 / 0530 TO 0830 AND 1130 TO 1330, 16 OCT 05:30 2012 UNTIL 14 JAN 13:30 2013. CREATED: 03 OCT 06:39 2012
This message reflects my personal opinion based on open sources of information.

Online catdlr

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #301 on: 10/21/2012 10:19 pm »
Iran issued another NOTAM for the Semnan area:

Quote
A2972/12 - GUN FIRING WILL TAKE PLACE

Quote
A2874/12 - GUN FIRING WILL TAKE PLACE

Is GUN FIRING considered space activities?
« Last Edit: 10/21/2012 10:19 pm by catdlr »
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Offline Comet

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #303 on: 11/13/2012 07:36 pm »
Update on possible Simorgh (?) launch:



Simorgh is  a LIQUID fueled launcher, so IF a solid one will be presented by Iran, it will have differenet name.

Offline Satori

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #304 on: 11/14/2012 03:29 pm »
Iran’s new spaceport expected to be operational by March 2013.

Any Google Earth coordinates of this launch site?

Offline Nahavandi

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #305 on: 11/14/2012 09:12 pm »
Iran’s new spaceport expected to be operational by March 2013.

Any Google Earth coordinates of this launch site?

As far as I know the coordinates aren't available yet, but the launch site is located in Iran's Sistan Baluchistan province.

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #306 on: 11/21/2012 09:05 am »
OK this is getting a bit ridiculous: the latest issue of the Jane's Defense Weekly (the November 21 issue) reports that Iran has tried a third orbital launch attempt of the year with a Safir rocket sometime between September 22 and October 25, but apparently the result was even worse than the last one: it exploded on the launch pad and severely damage the launch facilities. Photos taken by satellites of DigitalGlobe on October 25 shows a damaged umbilical tower, scars on the ground of the pad and a discarded rocket transporter.

Now I'm not sure if this is different from the May failure (I've only read second-hand Chinese reports: http://news.ifeng.com/mil/3/detail_2012_11/21/19380146_0.shtml), so how should I count this one?  ::)

If this is confirmed, that makes the Safir having a 50% success rate - that's still better than the Falcon 1.  ;)
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Offline Comet

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #307 on: 11/21/2012 09:37 am »

If this is confirmed, that makes the Safir having a 50% success rate -

It IS confirmed. Not by Iran though... :-\

Note that there is a change in the Iranian policy of pre-launch statements by space officials. Usually we heard some statements about a launch that will take place "in the comming days/monts/".

What is also of interest. is the US SILENCE about the launch, for a second ime in  row, regarding space launch attemps.
« Last Edit: 11/21/2012 09:38 am by Comet »

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #308 on: 11/22/2012 02:28 am »
OK this is getting a bit ridiculous: the latest issue of the Jane's Defense Weekly (the November 21 issue) reports that Iran has tried a third orbital launch attempt of the year with a Safir rocket sometime between September 22 and October 25, but apparently the result was even worse than the last one: it exploded on the launch pad and severely damage the launch facilities. Photos taken by satellites of DigitalGlobe on October 25 shows a damaged umbilical tower, scars on the ground of the pad and a discarded rocket transporter.

Now I'm not sure if this is different from the May failure (I've only read second-hand Chinese reports: http://news.ifeng.com/mil/3/detail_2012_11/21/19380146_0.shtml), so how should I count this one?  ::)

If this is confirmed, that makes the Safir having a 50% success rate - that's still better than the Falcon 1.  ;)

How can any outsider know if this was a failed launch versus a ground test accident?  Or even if it might have been a failure of a different rocket altogether?

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #309 on: 11/22/2012 04:24 am »
What is also of interest. is the US SILENCE about the launch, for a second time in  row, regarding space launch attempts.

That could be because advertising an Iranian rocket that does not work might reinforce the idea that their rockets are not a threat.

Were there any NOTAMs associated with this possible launch attempt and the suspected launch attempt in May?
« Last Edit: 11/22/2012 04:27 am by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Comet

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #310 on: 11/22/2012 06:27 am »


How can any outsider know if this was a failed launch versus a ground test accident?  Or even if it might have been a failure of a different rocket altogether?

 - Ed Kyle

Not ANY outsider could know.
There IS a picture of the preperation for launch that was taken on September - showing SAFIR launcher.

And, of course, there are technical means to help know what is going on such as  launch detection by US dedicated satellites. This information is not in the public domain, but support the Jane's story.

Offline Nahavandi

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #311 on: 11/22/2012 12:07 pm »
Despite the recent failures it is clear that there is consistency within the current programme.

In September IHS Jane's released an analysis of Iran's satellite launch programme:

hmttp://www.slideshare.net/IHS/ihsanalysis-iranssatelliteprogrammepdf

« Last Edit: 12/02/2012 01:59 pm by Nahavandi »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #312 on: 11/23/2012 03:28 am »
I've attached the pdf file of the IHS Jane's analysis below.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Salo

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #313 on: 11/24/2012 07:30 am »
Completed launches

Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2008.08.17 - Omid - Safir-1 - Semnan - launch failure
2009.02.02 - Omid - Safir-1 - Semnan - 18:34
2011.06.15 - Rasad - Safir-1A - Semnan - 9:15:03
2012.02.03 - Navid Elm-o-Sana't - Safir-1B - Semnan - 00:04
2012.05.23 TBD - Fajr - Safir-1B - Semnan - launch failure
2012.09.22 -2012.10.25 TBD - Fajr - Safir-1B - Semnan - launch failure


Planned launches

Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2013
NLT March 20 - Fajr - Safir-1B - Semnan
NLT March 20 - Sharif - Safir-1B - Semnan
NLT March 20 - AutSat (A Test, Amir Kabir-1, RU300) - Safir-1B - Semnan

2015 - Pars2 - TBD - TBD

2017 -Qaem (GSO communication satellite) - TBD - TBD

2019 - manned launch - TBD - TBD

Unclear:
TBD - Nahid - Safir-1B - Semnan
TBD - Tolou - Simorgh (Safir-2A) - Semnan
TBD - Zafar - Simorgh (Safir-2A) - Semnan
TBD - Masud 2 & Rasad 2 - Simorgh (Safir-2A) - Semnan
TBD - Mesbah-2 - TBD - Semnan
TBD - Parsmehr - TBD - TBD
TBD - Zohreh-1 - TBD - TBD
TBD - Zohreh-2 - TBD - TBD
TBD - Ayaat - TBD - TBD
TBD - Saar - TBD - TBD

Changes on November 24th
Changes on November 27th
Changes on December 25th
« Last Edit: 12/25/2012 06:30 pm by Salo »

Offline Satori

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #314 on: 11/27/2012 05:03 pm »
What is the source for the date of this latest Iranian failure?

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #315 on: 11/27/2012 07:29 pm »
What is the source for the date of this latest Iranian failure?
IHS Jane's is where I read it and I think the UN Office on Outer Space has it listed too, but I cannot readily confirm the latter one at this moment, but they are fairly consistent on updating their list.

Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #316 on: 11/28/2012 02:37 pm »
What is the source for the date of this latest Iranian failure?

This appeared on the FPSPACE mailing list:

Quote
From: FPSPACE [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of [email protected]
Sent: Friday, November 23, 2012 6:55 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [FPSPACE] Iran launch failure

Dear All,

Following on from a previous discussion about a likely failed launch attempt by Iran on 23 May, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly has now reported clear photographic evidence of  a catastrophic launch failure, probably on 22 Sept. The payload was "probably a Fajr satellite".

According to Nick Hansen of  Stanford, DigitalGlobe satellite imagery taken on 22 September showed the final stages of launch preparations, indicating the launch attempt took place later that day or soon afterwards.

He notes: "The next available satellite image, taken on 25 October, reveals striking damage. Analysis of the burn patterns indicates the rocket failed moments after its ignition, toppled southward onto the pad and exploded. It is likely that it triggered explosions and fires in the umbilical tower and nearby vehicles. Tyre tracks lead from the pad to a nearby bermed pen, where the burned-out TEL has been towed. The hydraulic fluid used to hoist and lower the umbilical tower also appears to have burned, destroying the wiring and piping needed to operate that apparatus."
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Offline Mighty-T

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #317 on: 11/29/2012 03:06 pm »
..."The next available satellite image, taken on 25 October, reveals striking damage. Analysis of the burn patterns indicates the rocket failed moments after its ignition, toppled southward onto the pad and exploded. It is likely that it triggered explosions and fires in the umbilical tower and nearby vehicles. Tyre tracks lead from the pad to a nearby bermed pen, where the burned-out TEL has been towed. The hydraulic fluid used to hoist and lower the umbilical tower also appears to have burned, destroying the wiring and piping needed to operate that apparatus."

The a.m. photo is available on Norbert Brügge's excellent launcher compendium at http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Safir-1B-IRILV/Description/Frame.htm (at the bottom of the page).

Offline Nahavandi

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Re: Iranian Space
« Reply #318 on: 12/03/2012 10:13 am »
The a.m. photo is available on Norbert Brügge's excellent launcher compendium at http://www.b14643.de/Spacerockets_1/Rest_World/Safir-1B-IRILV/Description/Frame.htm (at the bottom of the page).

Found a photo of the first launch failure on fresh.co.il


Offline Satori

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