Yeah, if you're trying to value a company you look at actual revenue, not promises of customers (bookings) or one-off deals that they have no hope of repeating. So far, SpaceX hasn't had any reliable revenue, and that's probably why they're off raising money again.
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/19/2014 05:36 pmYeah, if you're trying to value a company you look at actual revenue, not promises of customers (bookings) or one-off deals that they have no hope of repeating. So far, SpaceX hasn't had any reliable revenue, and that's probably why they're off raising money again.They are more than just bookings. They are contracts. Furthermore, SpaceX probably gets paid on a percentage of completion method (or something similar).
Quote from: Joey S-IVB on 08/19/2014 05:04 pmThey make $57 million in sales for each flight.They haven't sold a single launch for that price, yet.
They make $57 million in sales for each flight.
Sat ops Econ 101 re: SpaceX. AsiaSat 8 launch cost AsiaSat $52.2M. Same sat on ILS Proton: $107M. Even w/ delays, the calculus is simple.
Technically no, but it's getting awfully close
...but the profit numbers, as far as I know, have not been released.
Quote from: Joey S-IVB on 08/19/2014 05:04 pm...but the profit numbers, as far as I know, have not been released.That's because there is no profit.There is no way that SpaceX is profitable on anything at this point. Need more launches, not at discount for that to happen.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 08/19/2014 06:57 pmQuote from: Joey S-IVB on 08/19/2014 05:04 pm...but the profit numbers, as far as I know, have not been released.That's because there is no profit.There is no way that SpaceX is profitable on anything at this point. Need more launches, not at discount for that to happen.There is no way to know that unless you are on the inside
Must be nice to have a $10B valuation on ~$50M/year in sales (most of which is bookings - which in any other industry would count for $0.)
@Lar I'm surprised too. 200M at a 10B valuation means they're selling off 2% of the company, right? You can only do that so many times.
Quote from: meekGee on 08/19/2014 05:48 pmA simple multiplier on annual revenue or profit only makes sense for steady-state companies.If you think they'll be worth significantly more than $10B within a few years, you should jump in if you can.This is once again people insisting that a 10 year old company should be treated as a startup. That's a fool's game.
A simple multiplier on annual revenue or profit only makes sense for steady-state companies.If you think they'll be worth significantly more than $10B within a few years, you should jump in if you can.
Must be nice to have a $10B valuation on ~$50M/year in sales (most of which is bookings - which in any other industry would count for $0.) I suppose it's closer to $300M/year if you include NASA, but that's not scalable business.
Are we sure this isn't just another employee stock sale?
Does somebody know how much of the launch fees are paid in advanced and how much after the launch?
Quote from: JBF on 08/19/2014 05:57 pmAre we sure this isn't just another employee stock sale?That 's exactly what it is. Another liquidity round. They try to do this about twice a year for employees and minority investors (Musk controls a majority).
Quote from: Ludus on 08/19/2014 07:55 pmQuote from: JBF on 08/19/2014 05:57 pmAre we sure this isn't just another employee stock sale?That 's exactly what it is. Another liquidity round. They try to do this about twice a year for employees and minority investors (Musk controls a majority).Since Elon has not sold any Tesla or Solar City stock ever .... I wonder how he funds his billionaire lifestyle. It takes a few hundred million dollars to fund his personal lifestyle with the private jet, the $17 million mansion, etc. His official income from Tesla is something like $40,000 per year. He doesn't have any listed income as Chairman of SolarCity.Per reports, he invested just about every remaining Paypal fortune dollar he had in Tesla and SpaceX back during the financial crisis in 2008-2009.Elon has a lot more flexibility with SpaceX because it is private. I think past reports have placed his ownership stake at above 60% of the company. So perhaps he has also been liquidating a small percentage of his stock in SpaceX to fund his lifestyle. Probably not a huge amount, but it wouldn't surprise me if he has cashed out $100 million or more in recent years.