Author Topic: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions  (Read 20952 times)

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #20 on: 12/04/2010 11:19 pm »
I'll go out on a limb and predict that Newton's laws will, once again, be validated at non-relativistic speeds...

But seriously, speaking as a former Orbital employee who was fortunate to work with some outstanding engineers who were far smarter than I, I'm really impressed with the SpaceX team and what they've accomplished, and I wish them all the best. I forget who said that luck favors the prepared, or something to that effect. If anyone deserves to be lucky, I'd say these guys and gals do.

Offline joshcryer

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #21 on: 12/04/2010 11:31 pm »
If anything will fail I'm thinking it'll be reentry. However, I have high expectations for SpaceX, they have a really good system, so I'm going to take the optimistic route and say that they're going to have a completely successful flight.

Offline Antares

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #22 on: 12/05/2010 12:12 am »
Falcon worries: workmanship, staging, anything about the trajectory that's not exactly the same as the last one.  My guess at F9 success: 75%.

Dragon worries: pretty much everything, especially command and control.  Not too worried about trunk sep mechanics or entry.  Maybe chute deployment.  My guess at Dragon success, enough to call it smooth: 33%.  My guess that it comes back as planned: 66%.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline neilh

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #23 on: 12/05/2010 12:21 am »
This is fairly low probability, but another thing I wonder about is the ambient temperature the Falcon 9 will be launching in -- it's going to get pretty close to freezing at the Cape over the next few days, and I don't think any of their prior launches have been in ambient temperatures this cold. Perhaps there's some possibility that one of the subsystems may not perform as expected in those conditions? Low probability, but then again, there was the saltwater corrosion issue which downed a prior launch.
« Last Edit: 12/05/2010 12:25 am by neilh »
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Offline mr. mark

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #24 on: 12/05/2010 12:22 am »
My greatest hope is that Falcon 9 has a smooth flight. No liftoff roll and no second stage roll and also a correct insertion. To me this launch is just as important for Falcon 9 as for Dragon. If there are no flaws in the launcher Spacex moves alot closer to making Falcon 9 operational. Remember, They are launching an armed forces satelitte on this launch as well as Dragon. A successful cubesat deployment and a perfect Falcon 9 flight goes a long way to convincing  potential customers that the launcher has what it takes.   
« Last Edit: 12/05/2010 12:23 am by mr. mark »

Offline Halidon

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #25 on: 12/05/2010 01:43 am »
This is fairly low probability, but another thing I wonder about is the ambient temperature the Falcon 9 will be launching in -- it's going to get pretty close to freezing at the Cape over the next few days, and I don't think any of their prior launches have been in ambient temperatures this cold. Perhaps there's some possibility that one of the subsystems may not perform as expected in those conditions? Low probability, but then again, there was the saltwater corrosion issue which downed a prior launch.
Luckily for SpaceX they do most of their processing indoors and don't have to stand it on the pad until relatively close to launch.

Offline tinorex

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #26 on: 12/05/2010 09:42 am »
Software or sensor error.
For example, one of first stage engine sensors show, that engine is out of limits, software will not by able to act correctly - decide to stop engine or not and compensate the failure with other engines )

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #27 on: 12/05/2010 01:27 pm »
I'll predict that if it launches 1/10 of one second late the nsf readers will declare it a failure, and burn a tesla roaster to protest!
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Offline beancounter

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #28 on: 12/06/2010 12:25 am »
My greatest hope is that Falcon 9 has a smooth flight. No liftoff roll and no second stage roll and also a correct insertion. To me this launch is just as important for Falcon 9 as for Dragon. If there are no flaws in the launcher Spacex moves alot closer to making Falcon 9 operational. Remember, They are launching an armed forces satelitte on this launch as well as Dragon. A successful cubesat deployment and a perfect Falcon 9 flight goes a long way to convincing  potential customers that the launcher has what it takes.   
Thought I'd read just about everything there was but I missed this one.  Could you post the link about the cubesat please?
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline notherspacexfan

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #29 on: 12/06/2010 12:52 am »
Thought I'd read just about everything there was but I missed this one.  Could you post the link about the cubesat please?

http://www.spacenews.com/military/100408-nro-taps-boeing-next-cubesats.html

Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #30 on: 12/06/2010 12:57 am »
http://www.spacenews.com/military/100408-nro-taps-boeing-next-cubesats.html

I have never heard of wafer cubsat rideshare system.  It sounds amazing.  Anyone got any pics of it?
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline notherspacexfan

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #31 on: 12/06/2010 01:35 am »
I have never heard of wafer cubsat rideshare system.  It sounds amazing.  Anyone got any pics of it?
I found a little bit of information searching around.
http://www.csaengineering.com/products-services/other-adapters/

Quote
The Wafer adapter, in development with LoadPath LLC, will accommodate eight 3U CubeSat dispensers, e.g. P-PODs, four 6U CubeSat dispensers, or other combinations of 3U and 6U dispensers.  This modular MPA features a 38.8-inch-diameter primary interface and is sized for Falcon 1e, Minotaur 1, Taurus, and Pegasus.

Offline beancounter

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #32 on: 12/06/2010 07:06 am »
Thanks for the info.  Seems to have been overshadowed by the Dragon ride. 
The mission becomes even more complex and my likewise my respect for the SpaceX team continues to grow.
Beancounter from DownUnder

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #33 on: 12/06/2010 09:48 am »
« Last Edit: 12/06/2010 09:51 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #34 on: 12/06/2010 11:03 am »
To me, the highest-risk issues in the mission are as follows:

1) In-space manoeuvring - Can the Dragon be manoeuvred into the correct alignments for various Draco burns and kept stable during orbit and re-entry?

2) In-space communications - Will SpaceX be able to maintain telemetry down-link and control up-link throughout orbit? How quickly can SpaceX regain full contact if there are any LOS events (planned or otherwise)?

3) Parachute deployment and recovery - Whilst SpaceX has tested these systems and proceedures, it has not tested them at the high velocities that Dragon-1 will experience in Tuesday's flight.  A lot can be predicted and planned for but, in the end, this is going to be the first real test of SpaceX's models against actual trans-sonic aerodynamics.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2010 11:04 am by Ben the Space Brit »
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Offline Jim

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #35 on: 12/06/2010 11:50 am »
To me, the highest-risk issues in the mission are as follows:

1) In-space manoeuvring - Can the Dragon be manoeuvred into the correct alignments for various Draco burns and kept stable during orbit and re-entry?

2) In-space communications - Will SpaceX be able to maintain telemetry down-link and control up-link throughout orbit? How quickly can SpaceX regain full contact if there are any LOS events (planned or otherwise)?

3) Parachute deployment and recovery - Whilst SpaceX has tested these systems and proceedures, it has not tested them at the high velocities that Dragon-1 will experience in Tuesday's flight.  A lot can be predicted and planned for but, in the end, this is going to be the first real test of SpaceX's models against actual trans-sonic aerodynamics.

1 & 2 are not big deals. 

1# is not manoeuvrings, I believe you mean does the GNC system work vs the thruster systems.

2# it communicates on the ground.  It doesn't use steerable antennas.  The comm worked for the first launch of the F9.


Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #36 on: 12/06/2010 01:24 pm »
1 & 2 are not big deals. 
1# is not manoeuvrings, I believe you mean does the GNC system work vs the thruster systems.
2# it communicates on the ground.  It doesn't use steerable antennas.  The comm worked for the first launch of the F9.

You know SpaceX is getting closer to reality when Jim sounds marginally bullish about a SpaceX launch.

Good times.
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Online ugordan

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #37 on: 12/06/2010 01:44 pm »
You know SpaceX is getting closer to reality when Jim sounds marginally bullish about a SpaceX launch.

No, it's just making it clear that those areas are not where the highest risks lie.

For example, I'd characterize Draco thermal environments more uncertain than their ability to maintain 3-axis control of the craft or whatever. Recall that even the HTV had problems with thrusters overheating.

Offline Antares

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Re: Upcoming flight: Falcon 9 Flight 2 COTS 1 Predictions
« Reply #38 on: 12/06/2010 07:50 pm »
I wonder how much work has been put into the controls analysis of this unique configuration of spacecraft vs the normal Dragon.
If I like something on NSF, it's probably because I know it to be accurate.  Every once in a while, it's just something I agree with.  Facts generally receive the former.

Offline MP99

I wonder how much work has been put into the controls analysis of this unique configuration of spacecraft vs the normal Dragon.

ISTM a trunk-less config will be flown in every CRS mission, after the trunk has been discarded post-undocking. Therefore, I'd presume, the behaviour of this config will have been thoroughly analysed.

Would it be reasonable to suggest that Dragon may have been ballasted to match this re-entry config during a CRS mission?

cheers, Martin

PS or have I mis-understood the concern about the ways in which this config is unique?

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