Why exactly is this thread needed??? Any SpaceX updates are going to be about Falcon or Dragon anyway.
Quote from: Lars_J on 10/27/2009 01:48 amWhy exactly is this thread needed??? Any SpaceX updates are going to be about Falcon or Dragon anyway. Because the actual SpaceX update threads continuously go off topic, and become more "discussion" than "updates". Some of us don't have the time to wade through comparisions of spacecraft and automobiles, for example (citing a current thread) just to find some news on a current launch. That's why Updates Threads should be limited to updates and Discussion Threads should be the place for more general discussions.(hops off soapbox...)
Prediction: The first launch of Spacex's Falcon 9 launcher will be a complete success with first stage burn, stage separation and full 2nd stage burn. Elon Musk will announce that the Falcon 9 launcher is operational shortly after the successful launch. Nasa won't even had made a decision on Ares or a general direction before then.
Predictions:* During the F-9/COTS demonstration program, at least one Dragon will be lost due to a multiple engine-out during the core burn.
Quote from: Chandonn on 10/27/2009 01:54 amQuote from: Lars_J on 10/27/2009 01:48 amWhy exactly is this thread needed??? Any SpaceX updates are going to be about Falcon or Dragon anyway. Because the actual SpaceX update threads continuously go off topic, and become more "discussion" than "updates". Some of us don't have the time to wade through comparisions of spacecraft and automobiles, for example (citing a current thread) just to find some news on a current launch. That's why Updates Threads should be limited to updates and Discussion Threads should be the place for more general discussions.(hops off soapbox...)The problem is that "SpaceX updates" come from SpaceX. Anyone can find those at www.spacex.com . So why have a "SpaceX Update" thread? - Ed Kyle
Ad Astra (I think that's the name) seems to be the only one building a launch vehicle, so I expect they're counting on someone to help 'em out.
What's the factual basis for these engine-out and under-performing Merlin predictions?
Quote from: William Barton on 10/27/2009 11:27 amWhat's the factual basis for these engine-out and under-performing Merlin predictions? Factual? None at all. It is merely a coming together of basic statistics and gut feeling. Nine engines having to work together seems to be asking for trouble. Either one will not work entirely correctly or some unforseen interaction between the nine will have affects on them or the vehicle as a whole
One-stop shopping. Also, we sometimes get updates that are NOT on the "official" update sites.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 10/27/2009 01:01 pmQuote from: William Barton on 10/27/2009 11:27 amWhat's the factual basis for these engine-out and under-performing Merlin predictions? Factual? None at all. It is merely a coming together of basic statistics and gut feeling. Nine engines having to work together seems to be asking for trouble. Either one will not work entirely correctly or some unforseen interaction between the nine will have affects on them or the vehicle as a wholeI just wanted to make sure I hadn't missed something. My gut feeling is, the Cluster's Last Stand theory is wrong and that it's based on some unproven statistical assumptions. Saturn I was at the dawn of the space age, and seemed to work okay despite eight engines having to work together. Can't exactly say the same for N-1, of course, but it's not a fully comparable case, either. To the best of my knowledge, those NK's had never flown successfully before, and still haven't. Theoretically, you'd have to apply that set of statistics to Taurus II when estimating it's chances of success. But only theoretically.
It is merely a coming together of basic statistics and gut feeling.