Author Topic: US Space Assets that likely will be used to in MH17 investigation  (Read 8997 times)

Offline Jim

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The SAM launch was likely detected by SBIRS GEO or SBIRS HEO which were launched by a Atlas or Delta vehicle or DSP launched from Titan IV.  These could be used to pinpoint an area from which the launch occurred.  Signint assets in GSO may have been able to hear any RF comm used in coordinating the launch.   LEO assets, such as imaging sats or radar sats, may have photos of the launch site before the incident or were tasked soon after to look it. These were likely launched on Titan IV, DIVH or single core DIV or AV.  The take from two types of sats was likely passed through relay sats in GSO or Molynia orbits.

I will let others assign codes words to these assets. 
« Last Edit: 07/18/2014 05:51 pm by Jim »

Offline ncb1397

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I am not sure that SBIRS, which were designed to detect ballistic missiles, would be able to detect smaller SAMS like the Buk missile system used here. These missiles weigh about 600 kg while SCUD missiles are about an order of magnitude heavier just to give you a sense of scale. Any information on this, Jim?

« Last Edit: 07/18/2014 07:54 pm by Lar »

Offline Jim

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Any information on this, Jim?

That would likely be classified

Offline Lar

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Even if they can pinpoint the launch site, they won't be able to identify who authorized and executed the launch. And regardless of who did it, there's not much that the U.S. can do about it. The world is more complicated place than it was when these assets were devised.

In case Russia supplied rebels with sophisticated weapons that shot down a civilian airliner, there is a lot that the US, EU and Malaysia(which represents about half of global GDP) can do. There is a vast amount of money going to Russia from these countries for various things and their behavior or at least power/influence would surely be altered if it was cut off.

Space assets, their uses, their capabilities, how and when they got where they are? All fascinating. All on topic.

What the world is going to do about this? Off topic, likely to spiral out of control, and just generally NOT a good idea. Please also remember that this is an international forum, we cover launches world wide, and we have a lot of very respected and valued contributors from Russia.

(if you want to know personally what I think you should be my friend on Facebook...  (I'm not hard to find, I'm Larry Pieniazek, and I have a fair few of you as friends already) this ISN'T the place. Not even a little bit. PLEASE)
« Last Edit: 07/18/2014 07:09 pm by Lar »
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Offline ncb1397

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My apologies, but I was simply responding to a post that was essentially "what does it matter?". I contend that it does matter, and all space based or terrestrial resources should be used to investigate the cause and culprits.

Offline Lar

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I agree this is important. But this isn't the place for any and all discussion of this. I removed something that isn't really space based at all (saying "this probably didn't come from a space asset" does NOT make it on topic).

I understand that people have strong feelings about this. I certainly do. But please. No fault intended, no apologies needed just please.
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Online butters

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An actual SBIRs HEO image released by the DOD and analyzed by an informed analyst

http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2135/sbirs-heo-2-checkout-picture
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Offline Prober

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The SAM launch was likely detected by SBIRS GEO or SBIRS HEO which were launched by a Atlas or Delta vehicle or DSP launched from Titan IV.  These could be used to pinpoint an area from which the launch occurred.  Signint assets in GSO may have been able to hear any RF comm used in coordinating the launch.   LEO assets, such as imaging sats or radar sats, may have photos of the launch site before the incident or were tasked soon after to look it. These were likely launched on Titan IV, DIVH or single core DIV or AV.  The take from two types of sats was likely passed through relay sats in GSO or Molynia orbits.

I will let others assign codes words to these assets.

I'd also add the USAF had in operation an AWAC's at one time. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_Warning_And_Control_System

The Navy Aegis radar might have been operational during a fleet exercise that was listed in the Baltic, believe it was just about to end.

Point being lots of assets were in the area.
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Offline gosnold

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For SBIRS or any other early warning satellite asset the three potentially detectable events are:
-SAM launch: Buk missile weigh around 600kg according to wikipedia, more than half the mass should be propellant, but the combustion occurs early in flight so mostly under the clouds if there are medium-altitude ones
-SAM warhead detonation: SAM have fragmentation warheads to convert the explosion to kinetic energy. Buk missiles have 70kg of warhead, the explosive will be only a fraction of that mass. So a smaller signal but above any cloud cover if the plane flies at 30 kft
-Jet fuel catching fire: The flight was supposed to last 12h but only 3 were elapsed, so it was mostly full. That's around 100 000 L of fuel. If there was no cloud cover, and if it caught fire upon hitting the ground (it looks like it is the case based on the videos  in the media), this would be the easiest signal to detect.

Online Chris Bergin

AN interesting thread, but I would remind people (one post deleted) not to stray from the technical elements.
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Offline OV135

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Too bad airspace is cut off. Spysats should fly over without question so people can track the debris.  Same can be said on rumors of the black boxes missing.

STS-107 comes to mind as it's the only other recent disaster where high tech tracking was used to find debris that fell when the accident happened with just the orbiter flying.  Same with a jet at cruise altitude and it breaks up in midair.  The debris field is huge and runs for miles.

Recent news says the NTSB and FBI are on site now, but certain individuals are making it problematic to study the debris and reverse engineer the disaster.   Video does show large chunks of this jet from the tail fin in one area to bits of the fuselage here and there. One large piece is near a person's house. 

Some think the tail detached first and the rest of the plane shattered following that. Video shows the tail to be further away from the rest of the debris.   To add, given what happened. There is residue on the plane from what brought it down. We all know it was shot out of the sky, but forensics will show everything. Molten metal splatters to soot bits  imbedded in cracked surfaces.  Even the tiniest microscopic item will tell all.   

One video shows the landing gear and one of the tires is missing or burned off. Tons and tons of debris. Some of it severely charred by fire. One photo shows two engine pieces that have burns on them and severe impact damage from hitting the ground. One has the engine blades crushed into each other and the assembly pushed into itself. 

I'm curious to see and I hope that the debris can be reconstructed once the problems of recovery are removed. The engineering mind in me wants this done ASAP so as to find out what happened and prevent it from happening again.

Offline Star One

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« Last Edit: 07/21/2014 06:29 am by Star One »

Offline kevin-rf

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Here is an article relevant to this topic.

http://sattrackcam.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/sbirs-sigint-and-mh17-tragedy.html?m=1

The bottom of the article has a linked SBIRS presentation that has been posted in the past that shows some (but not all) SAM's can be detected. I believe the BUK is a two stage SAM, which from the presentation looks to be in the detectable range.

It is a good question if it was space based or other platform that acquired the data that led to the WSJ's quote on friday of they detected the SAM turn on, track the plane, fire the missile and detected explosion. I think SIGNIT data is playing a larger role than the IR signature in the analysis.
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Offline CameronD

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FWIW, here's a link to Stephen Clark's article on this topic:

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1407/21mh17/
« Last Edit: 07/22/2014 03:30 am by CameronD »
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Offline kevin-rf

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They are currently using satellite data to document the debris fields.
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/world/satellite-image-of-the-debris-field-near-hrabove/1197/

While satellite imaging has been used to document the crash site, an interesting tweet just came from an aviation journalist.

https://twitter.com/FG_STrim/status/491490089877659649

Quote
Stephen Trimble
‏@FG_STrim
Anyone reporting spy satellites spotting beer bottles lying around BUK launchers in Ukraine needs to check known resolution of KH-11 system.
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Offline Star One

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Linked to above.

DigitalGlobe's Before and After Images of MH17 Crash Site.

http://m.aviationweek.com/blog/update-digitalglobes-and-after-images-mh17-crash-site

Offline kevin-rf

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And to add to the bizarre, In the game of chess being played, the Russian side is demanding the US release any images (SBIRS/DSP) they have of the event.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140722/DEFREG01/307220037/
Shelton-Russia-s-Doubt-Over-US-Satellite-Capabilities-Shows-Desperation-

If this was any other time, I believe there would never be such a release. But considering the release of DOD satellite images early during the Syrian conflict, I suspect if the data is in a form that can actually be digest by the public they will be released.
« Last Edit: 07/24/2014 10:29 am by Chris Bergin »
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Offline OV135

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Why would such images be released when there are already photos of the site on tv from helicoptors or other satellites flying overhead?    https://fbexternal-a.akamaihd.net/safe_image.php?d=AQDy0jqpW19P7BUn&w=484&h=253&url=http%3A%2F%2F
www.channelnewsasia.com%2Fimage%2F1276186%2F1405998608000%2
Flarge16x9%2F640%2F360%2Fsatellite-mh17.jpg&cfs=1 

Such photos like this one are all over the news and tv. 
« Last Edit: 07/24/2014 10:29 am by Chris Bergin »

Offline kevin-rf

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They are referring to images that show the actual missile in flight and subsequent detonation as seen from space. Not broad area mapping of the crash site after the crash.

No such images have been released by any party and may not exist. ( Though a possible missile contrail image was posted to twitter in roughly the right geographic area. )

The image(s) may be possible with the SBIRS system, if such SBIRS images exist and are released it would provides insight into the lower detection thresholds of the SBIRS system. Hence the Russian attempt at a bluff in an effort to gain insight into the capabilities of SBIRS.

If images are released, it will provide insight into SBIRS.
If the DOD says SBIRS saw the event it will also provide insight.
If the DOD says SBIRS did not capture the event it will also provide insight.
If the DOD says nothing (like they should) it leaves the people who want to know guessing.

Yeah, I think everyone on NSF wants to know (including me), but it would be better if the DOD keeps to the script of multiple assets observed and recorded the event. That means SIGNIT and possibly SBIRS/DSP/Infrasound/ground and air assets.
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