Author Topic: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan  (Read 22988 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/02/nasa-budget-outline-europa-mission/

Took the references from the 2016 budget proposal and tied it in with the SLS evaluations we've been reporting on.
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Offline BrightLight

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #1 on: 02/03/2015 01:02 am »
Very nice article. This is the first good news about payloads for the SLS and a worthy one at that, lets hope the KDP is to go forward. With SLS utilization, maybe Congress will invest in EML habitat (wishful dreaming).

Online Lee Jay

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #2 on: 02/03/2015 01:21 am »
Would the probe get a high energy propulsion system or would the upper stage be used for that purpose (or both)?

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #3 on: 02/03/2015 10:40 am »
Surely the probe would have its own propulsion system, as the hydrogen-fueled upper stage would not be viable after the multi-year flight to Jupiter.  For the same reason, the probe's propulsion system would not be high-energy, if by that you mean lox-hydrogen.

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #4 on: 02/03/2015 10:49 am »
Very nice article. This is the first good news about payloads for the SLS and a worthy one at that, lets hope the KDP is to go forward. With SLS utilization, maybe Congress will invest in EML habitat (wishful dreaming).

I find this all rather ironic.  Serious consideration of an SLS-launched Europa mission is obviously good news for the SLS program.  But surely funding an expensive mission such as Europa Clipper can only make it harder to garner funds for human missions on SLS, which are ostensibly its prime purpose.

Offline newpylong

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #5 on: 02/03/2015 01:52 pm »
Very nice article. This is the first good news about payloads for the SLS and a worthy one at that, lets hope the KDP is to go forward. With SLS utilization, maybe Congress will invest in EML habitat (wishful dreaming).

I find this all rather ironic.  Serious consideration of an SLS-launched Europa mission is obviously good news for the SLS program.  But surely funding an expensive mission such as Europa Clipper can only make it harder to garner funds for human missions on SLS, which are ostensibly its prime purpose.

I don't agree that human missions are its primary purpose. It is being built as an exploration class system, capable of manned or unmanned. Orion just happens to be its only concrete payload currently.

If the Orion program can't come up with meaningful missions in that time period we should put it to use.
« Last Edit: 02/03/2015 01:58 pm by newpylong »

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #6 on: 02/03/2015 01:58 pm »
If Europa Clipper were guaranteed to result in a NASA budget increase in the amount of its cost, then its use of SLS would support SLS, thereby lowering HEOMD's costs.  But it's unlikely that NASA's top line is going to increase that much.

Offline TomH

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #7 on: 02/03/2015 09:49 pm »
Even if SLS Block IB were available right now, I would not favor it for this mission for the following reason. Gravity assist with a smaller rocket can still get the same probe to the destination. We would be several years more in receiving the data, but at far less cost. When you can put the probe in dormant mode and awaken it later when needed, I do not think it is worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars more to get the same data sooner. That money can be saved and better spent on another purpose while still getting the same date from Europa belatedly. In fact, I think FH with crossfeed would be an ideal bird for this mission.

Re. the speculation re high energy EDS: if SLS is used (I hope it isn't), I would see EUS supplemented by a Delta upper stage or an ion engine as a kick stage.

Offline newpylong

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #8 on: 02/03/2015 11:13 pm »
Delta will be gone and Ion is not a kick stage.

Not a requirement with EUS.

Offline Lobo

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #9 on: 02/03/2015 11:23 pm »
Very nice article. This is the first good news about payloads for the SLS and a worthy one at that, lets hope the KDP is to go forward. With SLS utilization, maybe Congress will invest in EML habitat (wishful dreaming).

I find this all rather ironic.  Serious consideration of an SLS-launched Europa mission is obviously good news for the SLS program.  But surely funding an expensive mission such as Europa Clipper can only make it harder to garner funds for human missions on SLS, which are ostensibly its prime purpose.

I think SLS's fate will be determined sometime within it's first 4 launches.  There's enough engines and -should- be enough 5-seg boosters for that many before they have to look at more RS-25's and new boosters.  IMHO, that's when a decision will be make to committ to SLS for the long term, or just fly out existing hardware, before those additional developments need funding committed.  The status of SpaceX's BFR will play a big role here, IMO. 
If cancelled, likely there'd still be a push to fly out existing hardware for those 4 flights, not unlike the flying out of some of the left over Apollo hardware.  EM-1 and EM-2 are two.  Europa Clipper could be a 3rd.  Is a 4th being discussed?  Perhaps an Orion flight with a secondary payload?  Or a Mars sample return mission?

If SLS is not cancelled and NASA orders new composite boosters from ATK and has Rocketdyne produce RS-25E (or more RS-25D's) then I could see something like Europa Clipper competing with the development funds of those new SLS items.
« Last Edit: 02/03/2015 11:26 pm by Lobo »

Offline john smith 19

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #10 on: 02/04/2015 05:11 am »
Am I the only person here whose thinking this is strangely reminiscent of the Jupiter Icy Moons plan?

That being the case I wonder if this would be a good place to look at the idea of putting a small nuclear reactor on the probe?

The DUFF experiment finally demonstrated that it really wasn't that hard to connect a NASA Stirling generator to a small reactor and generate power.

The ability to deliver Kw power levels which can be throttled down during cruise (or possibly up if it has an ion thruster on board) while delivering a constant power level (as opposed to the decay curve of an RTG) with enough lead time to do the development sounds like a good idea.
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #11 on: 02/04/2015 08:55 am »
Even if SLS Block IB were available right now, I would not favor it for this mission for the following reason. Gravity assist with a smaller rocket can still get the same probe to the destination. We would be several years more in receiving the data, but at far less cost. When you can put the probe in dormant mode and awaken it later when needed, I do not think it is worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars more to get the same data sooner. That money can be saved and better spent on another purpose while still getting the same date from Europa belatedly. In fact, I think FH with crossfeed would be an ideal bird for this mission.

Re. the speculation re high energy EDS: if SLS is used (I hope it isn't), I would see EUS supplemented by a Delta upper stage or an ion engine as a kick stage.

From Blackstar's posts, I gather the big advantage of a faster trajectory to Jupiter (i.e., SLS rather than Delta) is that, because the spacecraft need not last so long, testing it on the ground before launch is cheaper.  I have seen no evidence, however, that the savings from reduced testing would outweigh the increased costs of the larger launch vehicle, and I agree with you that getting the data several years earlier does not justify spending hundreds of millions more.

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #12 on: 02/04/2015 08:57 am »
Delta will be gone ....

If the Delta IV heavy goes away, it will be replaced by something equivalent: DoD and NRO will see to that.

Offline Proponent

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #13 on: 02/04/2015 08:59 am »
Am I the only person here whose thinking this is strangely reminiscent of the Jupiter Icy Moons plan?

It reminds me of Galileo, a spacecraft that got caught up in the shifting fortunes of NASA's previous launch vehicle, the Shuttle, and suffered for it.

Offline newpylong

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #14 on: 02/04/2015 11:05 am »
Delta will be gone ....

If the Delta IV heavy goes away, it will be replaced by something equivalent: DoD and NRO will see to that.

Yeah - the ULA next gen, which is going to use Centaur day 1 and something like ACES day 2. Neither will be used on SLS.

Online redliox

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #15 on: 02/04/2015 11:44 am »
I think SLS's fate will be determined sometime within it's first 4 launches.  There's enough engines and -should- be enough 5-seg boosters for that many before they have to look at more RS-25's and new boosters.  IMHO, that's when a decision will be make to committ to SLS for the long term, or just fly out existing hardware, before those additional developments need funding committed.  The status of SpaceX's BFR will play a big role here, IMO. 
If cancelled, likely there'd still be a push to fly out existing hardware for those 4 flights, not unlike the flying out of some of the left over Apollo hardware.  EM-1 and EM-2 are two.  Europa Clipper could be a 3rd.  Is a 4th being discussed?  Perhaps an Orion flight with a secondary payload?  Or a Mars sample return mission?

If SLS is not cancelled and NASA orders new composite boosters from ATK and has Rocketdyne produce RS-25E (or more RS-25D's) then I could see something like Europa Clipper competing with the development funds of those new SLS items.

Definitely agree with your opinion on SLS' future.  They only booked the two flights with Orion but all else is a scary blank slate NASA doesn't want to admit.  IMO as well, if they book 'Clipper into one of those initial four, the SLS people (with or without Bolden above them) can say "Look!  Here is proof this rocket is genuinely useful!"  A new probe searching for life would raise a few eyebrows in a positive direction for SLS' future.

Politics aside, I want to see that probe swiftly and safely sent to Jupiter without pulling my eyelids groaning "Oh gawd how many Venus fly-bys do we have left to go?!?"
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Offline notsorandom

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #16 on: 02/04/2015 01:31 pm »
Even if SLS Block IB were available right now, I would not favor it for this mission for the following reason. Gravity assist with a smaller rocket can still get the same probe to the destination. We would be several years more in receiving the data, but at far less cost. When you can put the probe in dormant mode and awaken it later when needed, I do not think it is worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars more to get the same data sooner. That money can be saved and better spent on another purpose while still getting the same date from Europa belatedly. In fact, I think FH with crossfeed would be an ideal bird for this mission.

Re. the speculation re high energy EDS: if SLS is used (I hope it isn't), I would see EUS supplemented by a Delta upper stage or an ion engine as a kick stage.

From Blackstar's posts, I gather the big advantage of a faster trajectory to Jupiter (i.e., SLS rather than Delta) is that, because the spacecraft need not last so long, testing it on the ground before launch is cheaper.  I have seen no evidence, however, that the savings from reduced testing would outweigh the increased costs of the larger launch vehicle, and I agree with you that getting the data several years earlier does not justify spending hundreds of millions more.
To add to what Proponent said. There are some other advantages too. A launch on a smaller LV will include a Venus swing-by. In that trajectory a probe not only has to deal with a colder than Earth environment but a significantly hotter one too. There are savings in the cost of the probe by not having to design and build for the thermal conditions at Venus.

Also it is important to remember that Europe Clipper has a pretty tight cost cap on it. OMB and the White House have been reluctant to fund it because of the cost. It will be another flagship class mission. There was a study requested to see if it could be done for a billion dollars and the results were that there was not enough of a science return at that cost. Even twice that amount will be stretching it. So the Europa mission is more constrained by budget than most flagship missions. Adding things like an extra kick stage or ion propulsion will drive the cost up quite a bit. Knocking off a few years of mission support while in transit and not having to build for a hotter environment saves money.

Does this money save enough to offset the extra cost of an SLS launch? Doubtful, but SLS and Planetary exploration are separate line items. While they both come from the same overall NASA budget an SLS launch will not cause Planetary to have to pick up the entire cost of an SLS (it can't). The SLS program is going to be footing the bill to keep SLS going if they fly Europa clipper that year or not. Planetary might have to pick up a part of the marginal costs to fly an extra SLS but it would be a fraction of the total cost of the SLS program's cost divided by the number of flights that year. Basically from the Planetary program's perspective they would be getting a ride on SLS that is heavily discounted or free. So when the Europa mission is said to have to be under 2 or so billion dollars that is not figuring in the cost of the SLS launch to NASA but just what Planetary will be paying for it.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2015 01:32 pm by notsorandom »

Offline grakenverb

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #17 on: 02/04/2015 02:08 pm »

Politics aside, I want to see that probe swiftly and safely sent to Jupiter without pulling my eyelids groaning "Oh gawd how many Venus fly-bys do we have left to go?!?"

Maybe I can use the same logic on my wife:  "But Honey, think of how much faster we could get to the grocery store if we bought the Lamborghini instead of the Honda!"  :)

Online redliox

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #18 on: 02/04/2015 07:10 pm »

Politics aside, I want to see that probe swiftly and safely sent to Jupiter without pulling my eyelids groaning "Oh gawd how many Venus fly-bys do we have left to go?!?"

Maybe I can use the same logic on my wife:  "But Honey, think of how much faster we could get to the grocery store if we bought the Lamborghini instead of the Honda!"  :)

Cute analogy.  8)

Seriously though, Galileo went through enough redesigns and, when Venus was entered into the equation, it had to have a buttload of thermal blankets added including a sunshade atop the antenna.  Between insufficient lubrication of the main antenna between it's hauls back-and-forth between JPL and Florida and Venusian heat, the antenna warped enough to prevent full deployment.  That is why all Outer Solar System probes have solid antennas, not deployable ones anymore even though the former could be larger.  Proves Venus can be a cruel mistress when you try to steal her gravity.  ;)

I understand the logic behind gravity assists and the limits of rocketry, but even a kid would point out which path is excessively roundabout.  Poor JUICE from ESA won't reach Jupiter until after 3 sets of gravity assists and the 2030s.  Something like Juno's single Earth fly-by is easy to accommodate, but shouldn't be a constant necessity.  Between SLS, Falcon Heavy, and electric propulsion we're reaching a point where probes don't need such crutches.
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Offline NovaSilisko

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Re: NASA budget proposal to initiate Europa mission plan
« Reply #19 on: 02/04/2015 07:14 pm »
My biggest fear about this mission isn't so much it surviving a switch of launch vehicles, but it surviving the upcoming change of administrations...

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