With the change of the A5 order the graphic does not fit any longer. What about the 4 spares? Was the original order even bigger, 14+4=18 cores?Overall not bad. A6 might be not quite cheap enough but every A5 less saves the customers money.An interesting question might be if Ariane offered or Customers asked for the switch.
Quote from: Chasm on 01/10/2018 10:15 pmWith the change of the A5 order the graphic does not fit any longer. What about the 4 spares? Was the original order even bigger, 14+4=18 cores?Overall not bad. A6 might be not quite cheap enough but every A5 less saves the customers money.An interesting question might be if Ariane offered or Customers asked for the switch.The original transition phase had 33 total A5's, 11 total A6's, and 36 total Soyuz-ST/2.1's (all batch orders combined) and that does not to my undrstanding on A6 include commercial contracts.
AFAIK Arianespace backlog until 2020 is filled. If they reach the same amount of orders the next couple of years their backlog is filled until 2022. Let's try to do the numbers.Supply; Arianespace has:23x Ariane 5 on order; 1xES (gallileo), 12x A5-ECA PB+Batch and 10x A5-ECA PC-batch. 0x Ariane 6 (not available jet)Soyuz supply ??, most likely ordered on demand.11x Vega (5x batch1 [2013] & 6x batch2 [2017] & 4x Vega C [2017]Demand; Arianespace has a backlog of:18x A5: 15x Ariane 5 ECA dual GTO launch, 2x Ariane 5 ECA escape launch (BepiColombo & JWST) and 1x A5ES Gallileo.2x Ariane 6 Gallileo (+ 3x Ariane 6: Ariane 62 FM1, FM3 & A64 FM4)29x Soyuz; (21x Oneweb, 2xO3B, 3xEUMETSAT, CSG1+CHEOPS, 2x??)6x VEGA (ADM-Aeolus, Prisma, SEOSAT, ?MN35-B, ? 2x Falxon Eye (FETHR), L3/SSMS3x VEGA-C (CSG2 & 2x VHR-2020 [Airbus EO])(1x EURockot, Sentinal 3B)So Arianespace has left to sell: for the 2020-2022 period5x Ariane 5ECA ?x Ariane 6 5x Vega1x Vega-CInstitutional, non military, expected orders:Sentinel: 2C; 2D; 3C, ?3D (800km SSO <1200kg)EUMETSAT: 2x MTG (I1 & S1/Sentinel 4) [I2 in 2023] (all GTO)ESA Earth Explorers: 6) EarthCARE, 7) BioMass, 8 ) FLEX (all SSO)ESA Cosmic Vision: M2 EUCLID, L1 JUICEARTES Comsats: Eurostar NEO, Spacebus NEO, Electra (all GTO) & EDRS-DSpaceRider ?x (Vega-C, LEO)Proba 3, CERES 1-3, Taranis, MicroCarb, Merlin, M-AGRO, ?ESEO (<500kg SSO/LEO)I'm convinced Arianespace will be able to fill their order book, to match launcher supply. Most likely more Vega or soyuz launches are required.Edit to add:With now a total of 96 Ariane 5 launches, and a streek of 82 consecutive successes. And still 23 Ariane 5 launches left to go; Ariane 5 could reach a total of 119 launches and 105 consecutive successes.
... Edit to add:With now a total of 96 Ariane 5 launches, and a streek of 82 consecutive successes. And still 23 Ariane 5 launches left to go; Ariane 5 could reach a total of 119 launches and 105 consecutive successes.
...Now we know that the final Ariane 5 will be Launch 117, VA261. (117 - 96 = 21)Why are there two launchers less than planned in early Januari 2018?
Main agreements and contractual events in 2019With regards to Ariane 5 production:• negotiations for the new variant of the Batch PC related to the PB production contract forthe supply of the Ariane 5 solid boosters is still ongoing with the ESA, in particular for thecompensation for the Ramp down of the programme. Compensation for procurement (whichhas been completed) has concluded and will translate into a new contract over the comingmonths;• the PC contract related to the production of the Vulcain 2 oxygen turbopumps remainsunchanged. The final two units shall in fact be reutilised for the Ariane 6, maintaining thecontinuity of current Ariane 5 production and compliance with the schedule for the initialAriane 6 deliveries;• new tranche of the MCO contract signed, which will cover the maintenance needs of theAriane 5 manufacturing equipment until its completion, both for the Collefero site and forthe Regulus facility in Guyana;• initial tranche of the LEAP contract signed for the earthquake protection update to the ESA’sbuildings, dedicated to Ariane manufacturing;• the variant to the PC contract for the price review for the metal parts of the nozzle of theAriane 5 booster signed.
Main agreements and contractual events of 2020Regarding Ariane 5 and P120 production activities:• A new MCO contract tranche was signed to cover the maintenance needs of Ariane 5manufacturing equipment until the end of the programme at both Colleferro plant and theRegulus plant in Guyana;• Reduction of the final Ariane 5 production batch to 8 launchers (PC8) was formalized, withthe signing of the modified contract for Ariane 5 MPS;• The Authorization To Proceed (ATP) extension was signed for the P120C production contract,pending finalization and postponed due to delays in the Ariane 6 development programme;• The Authorization To Proceed (ATP) extension was signed for the V2 and Vinci turbo-pumpsproduction contract, pending finalization and postponed due to delays in the Ariane 6development programme.
Quote from: Rik ISS-fan on 01/14/2018 02:55 pm... Edit to add:With now a total of 96 Ariane 5 launches, and a streek of 82 consecutive successes. And still 23 Ariane 5 launches left to go; Ariane 5 could reach a total of 119 launches and 105 consecutive successes. VA240 was flight 96 of Ariane 5, launch took place on December 12, 2017. On January 9, 2018 the final batch (PC) of Ariane 5 was announced. Batch size 10, total Ariane 5 launches remaining 23. On January 25, 2018 Ariane 5 VA-241, launch 97 took of. And that was a partial failure. Now we know that the final Ariane 5 will be Launch 117, VA261. (117 - 96 = 21)Why are there two launchers less than planned in early Januari 2018?