Author Topic: IAC 2017 -- BFR v0.2 - DISCUSSION THREAD 1 (Pre-and-During Speech)  (Read 246976 times)

Offline BrianNH

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #220 on: 09/18/2017 12:36 pm »
That would be 12:30AM EDT for those of us in the Eastern U.S.  Australian time is GMT +9:30.  Note the 1/2 hour off.

Online Chris Bergin

Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #221 on: 09/18/2017 12:48 pm »
So... is anyone going? I'm not too eager to pay the $1000 to get in, but if you're a student you can get cheaper tickets. I was considering playing the journalist for NSF to get in for cheap if Chris feels like vouching for me.

Read and respond to the PM I sent you on September 15!
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Offline Norm38

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #222 on: 09/22/2017 05:48 pm »
Musk's speech is one week from today, correct?

Offline Peter.Colin

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #223 on: 09/24/2017 11:55 am »
My expectations for IAC 2017:

- Starlink unveiling.
- More details on energy and resource production on Mars.
- Optimal size for current and future Raptor engine determined. (I expect smaller size than at IAC2016)
- Proof of concept for cradle landings planned, within a year, with full scale grasshopper BFR (with only center cluster real engines)
- A future BFR design with more than 42 engines (e.g. 70 or 105)

Maybe:
- Something about the Moon.
- Something about a slightly longer Falcon 9 Block 6 being almost as payload capable as Falcon Heavy, with Raptor engines. This could even launch Starlink on a every 24h reflight pace. Maybe with second stage re-usability. Second stage can be tested first on Falcon heavy.
- Starlink might become a separate financial entity, immediately freeing up a lot of cash from the (stock)market for more rapid development of the interplanetary transport system.

Less than a week away, very exited, can’t wait  :)
« Last Edit: 09/24/2017 08:35 pm by Peter.Colin »

Offline spacenut

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #224 on: 09/24/2017 02:21 pm »
Length of F9 is already maxed out for road transport.  Raptor uses methane which will require more volume in comparison to Merlin.  F9 diameter is too small for Raptor booster, not going to happen.  They will go directly to a 9m ITS first.   

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #225 on: 09/24/2017 02:25 pm »
I'm not sure much focus will be on Starlink. No reason to promote it until they either have a service to sell or are doing an IPO. If they do focus on it too much, they might lose out on commercial satellite launches.

...although given the global slump in geosat orders, it's possible that bird has already flown.
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Offline Peter.Colin

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #226 on: 09/24/2017 02:37 pm »
Length of F9 is already maxed out for road transport.  Raptor uses methane which will require more volume in comparison to Merlin.  F9 diameter is too small for Raptor booster, not going to happen.  They will go directly to a 9m ITS first.

Then they will have to figure something out about the transport, the center core of FH is longer than F9
Also the ratio first stage second stage is not a constant.


Someone on Reddit calculated that even accounting for the lower density of liquified methane:

A methane rocket that matches the Falcon 9 would have about 30% less mass and 18% smaller volume, or a 5.6% shrink in all spacial dimensions.


https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/4fd1af/spacex_3rd_generation_launch_vehicles/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=comment_list

It’s a maybe and also depends on the dimensions of the Raptor engine, if 9 will fit.


« Last Edit: 09/24/2017 03:22 pm by Peter.Colin »

Offline Peter.Colin

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #227 on: 09/24/2017 02:46 pm »
I'm not sure much focus will be on Starlink. No reason to promote it until they either have a service to sell or are doing an IPO. If they do focus on it too much, they might lose out on commercial satellite launches.

...although given the global slump in geosat orders, it's possible that bird has already flown.

You are right, and that’s why the IPO is a maybe, although you must be kind of living under a stone not seeing Starlink coming when working in the satellite business.
The timing of the IPO and gaining all the invested money vs. loosing a part of the current launch manifest is crucial.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2017 03:06 pm by Peter.Colin »

Offline su27k

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #228 on: 09/24/2017 03:46 pm »
My expectations for IAC 2017:

- Starlink unveiling.
- More details on energy and resource production on Mars.
- Optimal size for current and future Raptor engine determined. (I espect smaller size than at IAC2016)
- Proof of concept for cradle landings planned, within a year, with full scale grasshopper BFR (with only center cluster real engines)
- A future BFR design with more than 42 engines (e.g. 70 or 105)

Maybe:
- Something about the Moon.
- Something about a slightly longer Falcon 9 Block 6 being almost as payload capable as Falcon Heavy, with Raptor engines. This could even launch Starlink on a every 24h reflight pace. Maybe with second stage re-usability. Second stage can be tested first on Falcon heavy.
- Starlink might become a separate financial entity, immediately freeing up a lot of cash from the (stock)market for more rapid development of the interplanetary transport system.

Less than a week away, very exited, can’t wait  :)

My prediction:
1. Very little Starlink, no new info outside the stuff we already known from FCC
2. Very little details on Mars surface activity
3. Lots info on the testing done in the past year, Raptor for sure, progress on composite tank. Some info on F9 fairing and second stage reuse, images of FH and Crew Dragon.
4. Vehicle to focus on is the subscale ITS, no F9 Raptor upper stage, no follow on to subscale ITS
5. A replacement mission for Red Dragon will be presented, using subscale ITS
6. Details about using Subscale ITS as large cargo lander on the Moon will be presented.
7. Mars communication satellite constellation will be presented, maybe a Moon version too.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #229 on: 09/24/2017 06:35 pm »
I'm pretty sure we'll see more about Mars surface infrastructure. I think that because of reasons (just wait a few days).

We haven't seen anything that shows how SpaceX plans to recover the Falcon Heavy upper stage, but we DO know Musk said they'll probably try. So, my best guess there is we'll see actual flight hardware of something that looks a bit like a BFS. Maybe TPS on the side of a Falcon upper stage with fins or something. If they can demonstrate reentry and recovery of that sometime late this year or (more likely) early next, then that's one of the biggest questionmarks regarding ITS taken care of.

I agree on probably mentioning something about Red Dragon replacement mission, and I definitely agree there'll be something about BFR to the Moon.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline spacenut

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #230 on: 09/24/2017 06:36 pm »
Only two, maybe 3 Raptors could fit under a F9 which is I think 3.7m in diameter or 12'.  The proposed nozzle diameter for a Raptor is 1.6 or 1.7 meters or about 6'.  Three full scale Raptors only will give about 1.3 million lbs thrust while the 9 Merlins give 1.6 or 1.7 million lbs thrust.  Don't know if they are going to mass produce the sub-scale Raptor used in testing, which is a little better than Merlin.  Diameter of nozzle may be a little larger also. 

If the center core of FH is longer it is probably for interstage to enclose the second stage vacuum engine nozzle.  This can be added later or shipped with the upper stage on another truck. 

SpaceX said they are going to freeze the design on Block 5 Falcons.  No plans for methane for it.  There has been talk on this forum about a 5.2m upper stage with a full scale Raptor vacuum for Falcon Heavy that would increase its payload by about 10 tons to LEO, and be able to do more moon centric work.  Then they said this was not going to happen.  Methane would have to be added to the existing launch sites, making things more complicated.  An LNG plant would have to be built nearby also.  Now an LNG plant is to be built near Brownsville Texas close to Boca Chica where SpaceX is building a launch facility. 

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #231 on: 09/24/2017 06:54 pm »
I'm not talking about a Raptor upper stage.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Peter.Colin

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #232 on: 09/24/2017 07:16 pm »
I'm pretty sure we'll see more about Mars surface infrastructure. I think that because of reasons (just wait a few days).

We haven't seen anything that shows how SpaceX plans to recover the Falcon Heavy upper stage, but we DO know Musk said they'll probably try. So, my best guess there is we'll see actual flight hardware of something that looks a bit like a BFS. Maybe TPS on the side of a Falcon upper stage with fins or something. If they can demonstrate reentry and recovery of that sometime late this year or (more likely) early next, then that's one of the biggest questionmarks regarding ITS taken care of.

I agree on probably mentioning something about Red Dragon replacement mission, and I definitely agree there'll be something about BFR to the Moon.

The re-usable second stage could be either some sort of mini BFS, which would positively surprise me.
Or
Something which looks very similar to a shorter first stage with landing legs and grid fins.
If it is used for deployment of Starlink it only reaches “very-LEO” so it doesn’t burn up at re-entry.
More boring option but also likely, since it’s faster to realize, and builds on known technology.
This Raptor second stage could be used first on Falcon heavy, later on Raptor-F9 with 24h reflight, to get all the thousands of Starlink satellites in orbit.

But this IAC I’m most curious about the optimal size of the Raptor, Raptors T/W ratio, and cradle landings.

« Last Edit: 09/24/2017 07:32 pm by Peter.Colin »

Offline DOCinCT

Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #233 on: 09/24/2017 07:32 pm »
That would be 12:30AM EDT for those of us in the Eastern U.S.  Australian time is GMT +9:30.  Note the 1/2 hour off.
2:30am EDT according to TimeBie for the 2PM presentation time.

Offline DJPledger

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #234 on: 09/24/2017 08:08 pm »
- A future BFR design with more than 42 engines (e.g. 70 or 105)
Far too many engines. Just think of all the time and money it would take to check all these engines between missions not to mention the greatly increased risk of engine RUD causing LOM.

Maybe a future larger BFR design that is a direct scale up of the mini-BFR with the same no. of scaled up Raptors. Mini-BFR can be design template for all future larger BFR's. Just scale up the design when needed. If mini-BFR has 19-21 engines then larger BFR's will also have 19-21 engines. This no. range is on the high end of what is acceptable on a booster. Any more engines is asking for trouble.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #235 on: 09/24/2017 08:18 pm »
Maybe some new info on ITS, but I’d expect more info on Raptor and the Mini-BFR and it’s US.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Peter.Colin

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #236 on: 09/24/2017 08:21 pm »
- A future BFR design with more than 42 engines (e.g. 70 or 105)
Far too many engines. Just think of all the time and money it would take to check all these engines between missions not to mention the greatly increased risk of engine RUD causing LOM.

Maybe a future larger BFR design that is a direct scale up of the mini-BFR with the same no. of scaled up Raptors. Mini-BFR can be design template for all future larger BFR's. Just scale up the design when needed. If mini-BFR has 19-21 engines then larger BFR's will also have 19-21 engines. This no. range is on the high end of what is acceptable on a booster. Any more engines is asking for trouble.

Inspection of the 9 engines of Falcon 9 Block 5 will take 24 h and a flashlight.

Inspection of 105 engines would take less than 10 days and between 1 and 10 flashlights.

And I suspect Elon Musk really likes the number 42... but we wil soon see.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2017 08:24 pm by Peter.Colin »

Offline DJPledger

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #237 on: 09/24/2017 08:40 pm »
- A future BFR design with more than 42 engines (e.g. 70 or 105)
Far too many engines. Just think of all the time and money it would take to check all these engines between missions not to mention the greatly increased risk of engine RUD causing LOM.

Maybe a future larger BFR design that is a direct scale up of the mini-BFR with the same no. of scaled up Raptors. Mini-BFR can be design template for all future larger BFR's. Just scale up the design when needed. If mini-BFR has 19-21 engines then larger BFR's will also have 19-21 engines. This no. range is on the high end of what is acceptable on a booster. Any more engines is asking for trouble.

Inspection of the 9 engines of Falcon 9 Block 5 will take 24 h and a flashlight.

Inspection of 105 engines would take less than 10 days and between 1 and 10 flashlights.

And I suspect Elon Musk really likes the number 42... but we wil soon see.
Still will take over a week to inspect 105 engines which is too long given SpaceX's long term target of 24h between flights of a booster. Best to scale up Raptor for future larger BFR's to keep engine no. in check.
« Last Edit: 09/24/2017 08:41 pm by DJPledger »

Offline meberbs

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #238 on: 09/24/2017 08:51 pm »
That would be 12:30AM EDT for those of us in the Eastern U.S.  Australian time is GMT +9:30.  Note the 1/2 hour off.
2:30am EDT according to TimeBie for the 2PM presentation time.
Not sure how you ended up with that result, but I triple checked (including using TimeBie) and got 12:30 AM EDT.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: IAC 2017 -- ITS v0.2
« Reply #239 on: 09/24/2017 08:54 pm »
That would be 12:30AM EDT for those of us in the Eastern U.S.  Australian time is GMT +9:30.  Note the 1/2 hour off.
2:30am EDT according to TimeBie for the 2PM presentation time.
Not sure how you ended up with that result, but I triple checked (including using TimeBie) and got 12:30 AM EDT.
Same here. 1230am, i.e. just after midnight, according to the Google.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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