Author Topic: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal  (Read 8300 times)

Offline feynmanrules

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Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« on: 03/02/2017 11:59 PM »
Bezo Pitches NASA with a Amazon-Prime-Lunar shipping service  :

Quote
The memo urges the space agency to back an Amazon-like shipment service for the moon that would deliver gear for experiments, cargo and habitats by mid-2020, helping to enable “future human settlement” of the moon. (Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com, owns The Washington Post.)

“It is time for America to return to the Moon — this time to stay,” Bezos said in response to emailed questions from The Post. “A permanently inhabited lunar settlement is a difficult and worthy objective. I sense a lot of people are excited about this.”

The Post obtained a copy of the white paper, marked “proprietary and confidential,” and the company then confirmed its authenticity and agreed to answer questions about it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2017/03/02/an-exclusive-look-at-jeff-bezos-plan-to-set-up-amazon-like-delivery-for-future-human-settlement-of-the-moon

(First thread I've started, so if I can do better please lmk)

Also:Chris no-doubt happy to see Bezos jet-ski in 1/6th gravity.

Offline tea monster

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #1 on: 03/03/2017 12:05 AM »
Any details on the vehicles?

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #2 on: 03/03/2017 12:07 AM »
Amazon Prime to DRO and LLO :D

Jeff if IKEA asks for a ride say no. It will be better for society than the viking flu you catch at Dreamhack.
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 12:09 AM by russianhalo117 »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #3 on: 03/03/2017 02:45 AM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.

Which if you think of it, it's pretty good timing for Bezos since the Moon is much closer and he is proposing they could perform their first lunar mission as early as July 2020.  If the Trump Administration thinks they can win re-election (and of course they do), then this could be a compelling proposition for them to support (i.e. Make America Great Again!).

Bezos is actually proposing a lunar lander called "Blue Moon", which can land 10,000 lbs on the surface of the Moon.  And the smart political move?  He's suggesting that it could be launched by the SLS, Atlas V, or their own New Glenn.

More evidence that as space enthusiasts that this is a WONDERFUL time in history!
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #4 on: 03/03/2017 03:02 AM »
I estimate 30-35t for wet lander in LEO (440ISP 2-3t dry 5t cargo). This would be about right for NG allowing reuse of booster and inside Vulcan capabilities.

The biggest technical challenge is boil off over the few days in transit. Wouldn't be surprised if they've borrowed a few ideas from ACES.

If they can do this with lander they can also deliver cargo direct to GEO or DSH.
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 03:03 AM by TrevorMonty »

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #5 on: 03/03/2017 03:15 AM »
Very good!

Let's do this, humanity!
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #6 on: 03/03/2017 05:54 AM »
This is getting interesting.  I like what I'm hearing.  This may truly be the dawn of a golden age of human spaceflight.  It's beginning to feel like the 1960s again.   All I can think to say is groovy. 8)

Online meberbs

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #7 on: 03/03/2017 06:14 AM »
I can't say I'm surprised that Blue Origin is looking at going to the moon. I have basically assumed that is where they were headed, even though the only actual hint that I know of is "New Armstrong" being the name of their next rocket after New Glenn. I understand why Musk is planning to go straight to Mars, but Bezos hasn't expressed the specific sentiments that are driving Musk to Mars, and the moon (with a permanent base on it) just makes so much sense as a next technological step, I couldn't imagine Bezos wasn't aiming for it.

I didn't expect that 2020 date for a moon landing though, even if it is just cargo.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #8 on: 03/03/2017 07:01 AM »
It's almost as if the companies are coordinating their moon announcements ... ULA had their CISLunar1000 workshop, SpaceX announce their moon trip, Bigelow suggests using ACES to deliver a lunar outpost and now Blue Origin with Blue Moon!

Can't work out if there's really some coordination here or if they're jockeying for position while the new administration decides what its space policy will be. (Or both :) )

Of course what's great is that all the pieces are coming together that could truly enable lunar settlement and driven by the commercial sector. Ok a lot is still on the drawing board but SpaceX and Bigelow are both in advanced development/production. For me what's key is that a few years really does feel realistic to put some infrastructure in place. Exciting times.

Edit: added links and corrected typos
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 07:15 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline IRobot

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #9 on: 03/03/2017 07:27 AM »
I wish we had a 3rd supplier of near future super heavy lift capabilities.

This would make a strong base for any large commercial or state sponsored projects.
Only 2 suppliers adds a lot of risk, as one can go bust or change their strategy, leaving projects grounded.

Of course you can always argue that there is no large demand for that capability, but I think this is one of those cases where you first have to establish the capability and only after the client's projects show up.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #10 on: 03/03/2017 07:47 AM »
I think it is worth noting the story mentions a specific lunar location: "The company said it plans to land its Blue Moon lunar lander at Shackleton Crater on the moon’s south pole."

The following sentence implicitly narrows the location further: "The site has nearly continuous sunlight to provide power through the spacecraft’s solar arrays."

So there are two or three such sites on the ridge that forms the rim of Shackleton:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_of_eternal_light#Lunar_south_pole

And just to be clear: nobody's claiming there are permanently shadowed regions up on the ridge, right?
-- sdsds --

Offline hektor

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #11 on: 03/03/2017 07:47 AM »
Make's me think of Jan Woerner's "Moon village".

Moon Village: A vision for global cooperation and Space 4.0

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #12 on: 03/03/2017 03:23 PM »
Eric Berger's write-up of Blue Moon, based on WP article and Jeff Bezos' comments at the AvWeek awards:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #13 on: 03/03/2017 03:39 PM »
"And just to be clear: nobody's claiming there are permanently shadowed regions up on the ridge, right?"

Yes, there are permanent shadows on the ridge, not just down on the floor of Shackleton!

Every little crater on that ridge (and others like that at Malapert) has a mini-permanent shadow in it.  These mini-shadows are currently seen as the easiest to do near-term prospecting in as people try to figure out what volatiles are trapped in the shaded areas.  I'm not really thinking of a crater 1 m across, though strictly speaking it could have a permanent shadow... but craters 100 m across or so, of which there are plenty, could have enough shadow to be worth studying. 

A rover could perch on the rim of the crater and use a laser to vaporise a puff of volatiles from the crater for analysis, or drive in for a short sampling procedure and back out into sunlight again.  I would encourage looking at the extensive coverage of studies for Resource Prospector for further details - e.g. at the LEAG meeting in the fall of 2016 and the NASA Exploration Science Forum at Ames in the summer of 2012.  There are also route planning studies on Malapert among the LEAG abstracts from last fall.  The all get into these things. 

So as an example, there is a cluster of craters, each  a few hundred m across, right where the Connecting Ridge joins the rim of Shackleton.  Easy access to interesting sites only 1 or 2 km from high-illumination areas.

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #14 on: 03/03/2017 04:10 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

He's solely focussed on cargo to the moon, enabled by BO hydrolox props and automated precision landing.

Musk is focussed on people+cargo precision lander in a context allowing development on Mars/other.

You're presuming much more than he says. There's specific reasons for what he says and doesn't say. Listen, don't project.

Very important, because you all want to fantasize than Musk/Bezos are same/like. Not!

Bezos is claiming a supporting role - Amazon Prime to the moon, lowest cost cargo there.

Musk is claiming to be able to do that "landing on the beach head" with ITS first interplanetary flights.

You shouldn't assume more for either - Bezos still just wants "people working in space", and Musk will get people and cargo to be able to "start Mars". But there still has to be something more to make use of these.

So don't be all "space cadet happy" over this. There's a lot more "will" here that might need to happen.

All you've got are a few "enablers".

And don't count on the current hoopla for much - its just a distraction at the moment. When the cost of doing something appears, suddenly things might shift. RIFs are permanent, and deconstruction of institutions too.

Which does not mean that you don't value the moment, one does strike while the iron's hot.

But listen very very carefully to what they say. And timelines.

Now if you want "human exploration", what do you want in the immediate?
 * People in the vicinity of exploration (like free return/LLO/lander/landing/multiple sorties)
 * Means to sustain exploration
 * Returns on the exploration to sustain the means
 * Enough "financial runway" for self-sustaining to eventually kick in


Offline Eer

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #15 on: 03/03/2017 04:19 PM »
Make's me think of Jan Woerner's "Moon village".

Moon Village: A vision for global cooperation and Space 4.0

Makes me think of Dick Tracy and his moon folks living in a crevice at the poles ...

Online Comga

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #16 on: 03/03/2017 04:31 PM »
I wish we had a 3rd supplier of near future super heavy lift capabilities.

This would make a strong base for any large commercial or state sponsored projects.
Only 2 suppliers adds a lot of risk, as one can go bust or change their strategy, leaving projects grounded.

Of course you can always argue that there is no large demand for that capability, but I think this is one of those cases where you first have to establish the capability and only after the client's projects show up.

And I wish I had a pony.

Long ago there was an ad on TV with a guy standing in a pouring rain in front of a sign for Boston trying to hitch a ride to Los Angles.  A white Corvette stops in front of him.  The window rolls down and a gorgeous blond leans over and says "I'm only going as far as Las Vegas." to which he replies "That's OK.  I'll wait here."

Unless you are being sarcastic and asking for a unicorn.....
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #17 on: 03/03/2017 07:10 PM »
Let's watch that very first Blue Origin video again - starts with the Moon and ends with the Moon, so you know that's what Bezos is focused on:




Musk has the multiplanetary vision right, but Bezos recognizes that the Moon is the lower hanging fruit/branch, to get humanity off-world so that we can become multiplanetary.

But is this somehow Bezos' reply to Musk's circum-lunar flyby mission?
Is this latest proposal from Blue then an attempt to capitalize on the Whitehouse's desire for a lunar mission, or to bring a renewed focus of activity for the Moon?

Haha - be careful, Mr Bezos - don't want somebody arm-twisting you to lower your price near the end, like F-35.  ;)
(sorry, I couldn't resist)
« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 07:16 PM by sanman »

Offline feynmanrules

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #18 on: 03/03/2017 07:27 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

CoastalRon is spot on.  A lot of blue orgin's plans are toned-down SpaceX ambitions. 

Here's parallels between two companies plans, expressed in NSF links : 8)

SpaceX : https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/spacex-debut-red-dragon-2018-mars-mission/
Quote
"Essentially what we're saying is we're establishing a cargo route to Mars," Musk said.
Later.... ITS/BFRs, future settlements, maybe a Boring Cave or two, who knows.

Blue Origin : (this thread)
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“It is time for America to return to the Moon — this time to stay,” Bezos said in response to emailed questions from The Post. “A permanently inhabited lunar settlement is a difficult and worthy objective.

Bezos continues his ability to ride in SpaceX's massive barge wake.

Space companies know we have a president who craves adoration and is ready to spend OPM.   They're hoping he recognizes a significant chunk of humans feel less than adulation for him and want otherwise.

He appears to operate at level of "hey wasn't it great when we went to the moon? we were great, people liked us."    If it's good for space... why not?   I only hope we keep deficits under control.

Agree with GhostWriter- hold off on buying lunar timeshares.    Or at least say "the check is in the Blue Moon".

« Last Edit: 03/03/2017 07:28 PM by feynmanrules »

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Blue Origin Lunar Settlement Proposal
« Reply #19 on: 03/03/2017 07:42 PM »
Essentially Bezos is offering to do for the Moon what Musk is offering to do for Mars - be the transportation company.
Nope, couldn't be more wrong.

He's solely focussed on cargo to the moon, enabled by BO hydrolox props and automated precision landing.

Musk is focussed on people+cargo precision lander in a context allowing development on Mars/other.

Differences without distinctions.  Both are focused on solving the transportation side of the equations, not the "what we do when we're there" part.  BO is working on moving people to space, so just because they didn't announce it as part of this effort (which hasn't been officially announced anyways) doesn't mean they wouldn't offer it later as their vehicle plans firm up.

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You're presuming much more than he says. There's specific reasons for what he says and doesn't say. Listen, don't project.

We don't have anything official from Bezos on this, so I'm not listening to anything he says...   ;)

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Very important, because you all want to fantasize than Musk/Bezos are same/like. Not!

I can understand what you're saying without bolding the text.  And again I'd say you are highlighting differences without distinctions - both Musk and Bezos are focused on lowering the cost to access (and travel through) space, which to me has been the initial barrier to expanding humanity out into space.  Adding landers to their capabilities are natural extensions.

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So don't be all "space cadet happy" over this. There's a lot more "will" here that might need to happen.

All you've got are a few "enablers".

I'd argue that what we've been lacking has been "enablers", which is why I'm a happy camper now - we are seeing the potential start of the private sector taking the lead of moving humanity out into space.  We all know NASA won't get a mandate to do that, and the U.S. Government has no interest in sending taxpayers away.  So this is a step in the right direction!

Quote
And don't count on the current hoopla for much - its just a distraction at the moment. When the cost of doing something appears, suddenly things might shift. RIFs are permanent, and deconstruction of institutions too.

Which does not mean that you don't value the moment, one does strike while the iron's hot.

You're being contradictory here.  Don't celebrate.  OK to celebrate.  I think you're experiencing a lot of emotions right now...

Quote
But listen very very carefully to what they say. And timelines.

I really don't care about timelines, I only care about progress.  And I see Musk and Bezos making progress - ON THEIR OWN DIME!

They have the motivation and the means, which no one else has right now, so I'm going to cheer them on.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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