When will EM-1 Launch

[rayleighscatter]

A nice fluffy little poll to see when everyone thinks SLS/Orion will first launch. I baselined it with the current expectation of NET November 2018. I know SLS is a bit polarizing here so let's please be excellent to each other and remember that there are other sections for debating the merits and failings of the system.

Poll runs through May 2017.

[deadman719]

Selected 4th Qtr 2019. That guestimate is based on information posted to NSF.

Rob

[Arb]

Needs a "never" option...

[Zed_Noir]

Needs a "never" option...

Just picked 2020 & later. Since that  is open-ended.

[sdsds]

I defend my April 2019 prediction with the attached spreadsheet.
Nov 2018 - today() = 648 days.
648 * 1.25 = 810 days.
today() + 810 days = April 2019

Of course you might not like the 1.25 slip factor. And note well the value of today() changes ... daily!

[ZachS09]

I'm sticking with the original November 2018 launch target.

[Danderman]

My guess is right after the MLM is launched to ISS.

[eric z]

 Please forgive me for saying this, but what purpose does a poll like this serve? There are a lot of folks out there working very hard on this rocket, how does this help? How about a thread for suggestions on strengthening the program, both technically and programmatically? Polls are fun, but ultimately meaningless, as we have recently seen! How about an "Alternative" reality where SLS could launch 4 to 6 times yearly, and a thread as to what could then be accomplished with that launch rate in conjunction with Falcon Family and Arianne and HTV future variants working together in a Master Plan? Just for fun!

[savuporo]

My guess is right after the MLM is launched to ISS.

At some point it just makes sense to park MLM on a barge somewhere between Kiribati and Guam and just have it wait for ISS to meet it there.

[redliox]

Some delay will probably be inevitable, but I'm willing to believe December of '18 they can manage to hit.

[Lar]

"Never" would be my choice, were it available. Perhaps that's wishful thinking.

[philw1776]

Never

[RonM]

I think EM-1 will launch sometime in 2019 (guessed 3Q), but I have my doubts EM-2 will ever launch. Too many years and too many dollars between flights. I doubt the new administration and Congress would cancel the program immediately, but the long gaps before SLS goes operational favors switching to a less expensive commercial solution even if it can't lift as much (FH, NG, Vulcan).

[alexterrell]

When will President Trump discover that NASA exists, and will he then demand that Canada pays for the SLS launch?

Even if he does notice NASA, he might think SLS is a way of making America Grate again, so perhaps March 2019.

Unpredictable times though.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

My guess is that there will be an additional 6 month slip due to encountering some integration unknowns between all the various elements: SRBs, core (and RS-25s), software, pad, VAB, iUS, SM, and Orion). A lot of stuff has to go near perfectly for the Nov 2018 schedule to be met.

[Paul451]

Please forgive me for saying this, but what purpose does a poll like this serve? There are a lot of folks out there working very hard on this rocket, how does this help?

We have polls on any topic that interests someone enough to make a poll. Why did this, of all the other polls, so get your goat?

[Hog]

Someone told me that a "slip" has already been approved, IIRC it was a 3 month slip to the right.  Looks like I need to change my campground reservations!