Poll

Simple Question - Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?

Yay
111 (74.5%)
Nay
38 (25.5%)

Total Members Voted: 149

Voting closed: 01/01/2017 01:29 AM


Author Topic: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?  (Read 15103 times)

Offline jongoff

  • Recovering Rocket Plumber/Space Entrepreneur
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6048
  • Lafayette/Broomfield, CO
  • Liked: 2038
  • Likes Given: 692
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #20 on: 12/24/2016 09:00 PM »
In my 2017 predictions I said that Falcon Heavy would at least make it to the pad, but might not fly. I think it's close to 50/50 on them making it to flight this year, but since this poll didn't allow as much weasling, I'm going to be a contrarian and say Nay. While there may be no obvious reason why they couldn't make FH fly this year, there are still things that could go wrong, and we don't know what their priority is for FH now that F9 FT has started to fly.

But as I said, I think there's a decent chance I may be wrong.

~Jon

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8654
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 5407
  • Likes Given: 3565
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #21 on: 12/24/2016 09:11 PM »
I said yes.

Red Dragon shouldn't be the first FH flight. I expect there would be learnings from that one and maybe one more before they launch Red Dragon. Right to left planning then suggests that the first flight needs to be in 2017 unless Red Dragon slips. And I don't see Elon wanting it to slip.

Metal is being bent for FH as we speak. So yes, I think it will fly in '17.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5478
  • "With peace and hope for all mankind."
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 677
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #22 on: 12/25/2016 09:23 AM »
I don't think Red Dragon can be the first FH launch either. There's a reason for that which I haven't seen explicitly mentioned yet: arrival speed at Mars for a 2018 conjunction class mission. Keeping that low gives Dragon the best chance of successfully reaching the surface. And the launch window for low speed Mars approach is narrow.

SpaceX does amazing things, yes. But launching the first-ever vehicle of a particular type within a specific 10 day window? Hmm, that's asking a lot even of them!

[EDIT: The plot is from https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/19980210557.pdf.]
« Last Edit: 12/25/2016 07:38 PM by sdsds »
-- sdsds --

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 690
  • Europe
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #23 on: 12/26/2016 12:23 PM »
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.

I voted yes. They'll do a test flight this year. First times always run into unforeseen issues, so assuming they've become more careful since september, they won't launch commercially this year until all of those issues are adressed. But the word was 'fly', not 'paid flight'.

Even if they do put a payload on a hardly tested FH, there will be no red dragon before 2022. They still have to relaunch a booster and get Dragon v2 flying. Things take time.

Offline Kansan52

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 872
  • Hutchinson, KS
  • Liked: 261
  • Likes Given: 309
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #24 on: 01/19/2017 06:14 PM »
Not until SLC-40 is operational. They will not risk the only East coast operational launch site for this test.

Offline alang

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 197
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #25 on: 01/22/2017 02:00 PM »
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting.
Too many variables and if further launch failures hit the SpaceX manifest then I can see it being cancelled.
My bet is for a launch at either the end of 2017 or Q1 2018.

Online Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2239
  • Canada
  • Liked: 287
  • Likes Given: 451
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #26 on: 01/22/2017 08:46 PM »
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting.
...

The Falcon Heavy as currently configured can lift about twice as much payload mass to LEO & GTO than the Delta IV Heavy at less than a third of the cost. Even in the fully expendable mode. So the USAF will be interested. Heck, ULA is probably hoping for the Falcon Heavy to enter service sooner so they can walk away from SLC-6 and LC-37B along with the retirement of the Delta IV Heavy.

IMO the Falcon Heavy will fly shortly after the first Falcon 9 Block 5.

Online MATTBLAK

  • Elite Veteran & 'J.A.F.A'
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3834
  • 'Space Cadets' Let us; UNITE!! (crickets chirping)
  • New Zealand
  • Liked: 750
  • Likes Given: 1431
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #27 on: 01/22/2017 08:55 PM »
...And me... ;)
"Those who can't, Blog".   'Space Cadets' of the World - Let us UNITE!! (crickets chirping)

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8216
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2976
  • Likes Given: 721
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #28 on: 01/29/2017 10:50 PM »
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.
Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline moreno7798

Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #29 on: 01/30/2017 02:10 AM »
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?

Online Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2239
  • Canada
  • Liked: 287
  • Likes Given: 451
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #30 on: 01/30/2017 03:08 AM »
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?

The SpaceX launch manifest on their website just list flights alphabetically not which one is next.

Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.

ARABSAT (ARABSAT 6A)
FALCON HEAVY DEMO
INMARSAT
INTELSAT
US AIR FORCE (STP-2)
VIASAT

Offline ccdengr

  • Member
  • Posts: 74
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #31 on: 01/30/2017 03:10 AM »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #32 on: 01/30/2017 06:01 AM »
VIASAT
I thought Viasat gave up waiting and jumped to Arianespace... https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/02/15/viasat-trades-in-falcon-heavy-launch-for-ariane-5/

They keep the order for a future launch around 2020-ish if I remember correctly.
Chinese spaceflight is a cosmic riddle wrapped in a galactic mystery inside an orbital enigma... - (not) Winston Churchill

Offline sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5478
  • "With peace and hope for all mankind."
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 577
  • Likes Given: 677
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #33 on: 01/30/2017 06:30 AM »
Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.

I think this underlines a subtle distinction between the FH Demo flight and RD. FH Demo is ... actually for a particular customer. RD will be purely an internally motivated flight.
-- sdsds --

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 690
  • Europe
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #34 on: 01/30/2017 07:27 AM »
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.

Well, IIRC it was 'end of the year' before CRS-7, 'next year' for four years before that, and 'two years' before that. The trend seems to be good, anyway.

Offline rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 407
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #35 on: 02/07/2017 01:22 PM »
Actual hardware! 2017 is looking like the year FH finally flies.

Online AncientU

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4963
  • Liked: 2964
  • Likes Given: 4184
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #36 on: 02/07/2017 02:05 PM »
Maybe this is the year that everyone will have to choose an alternate vehicle to mock SpaceX's overly-optimistic schedules... may I suggest the BFR?
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
-- SpaceX friend of mlindner

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 690
  • Europe
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #37 on: 02/09/2017 11:39 AM »
Straigth to BFS? What about Crew Dragon and Red Dragon?

No need to limit 'vehicle' to 'launch vehicle'  ::)

Online QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8216
  • Australia
  • Liked: 2976
  • Likes Given: 721
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #38 on: 02/09/2017 09:24 PM »
Actual hardware is a good sign, but I still think we're a year or two away. Hopefully only a year, then Red Dragon in 2018 is a real possibility.

Jeff Bezos has billions to spend on rockets and can go at whatever pace he likes! Wow! What pace is he going at? Well... have you heard of Zeno's paradox?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4396
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 2980
  • Likes Given: 984
Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #39 on: 03/08/2017 09:53 PM »
SpaceX are sticking to 2017, at least for now:

SpaceX are still saying FH demo flight this year:

Quote
SpaceX's Shotwell: Falcon Heavy to fly this year #satshow

https://twitter.com/chenry_sn/status/839590030511386625

Tags: