Poll

Simple Question - Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?

Yay
111 (74.5%)
Nay
38 (25.5%)

Total Members Voted: 149

Voting closed: 01/01/2017 01:29 AM


Author Topic: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?  (Read 9374 times)

Online Flying Beaver

Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« on: 12/23/2016 01:29 AM »
Simple Question - Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
Saw OG-2 Booster Land in person 21/12/2015.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #1 on: 12/23/2016 02:20 AM »
I voted "Yay".  I based that on the totality of known activity concerning Falcon Heavy, and that unlike prior years SpaceX is now bumping into the need dates of Falcon Heavy launch customers.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2016 02:20 AM by Coastal Ron »
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Offline redliox

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #2 on: 12/23/2016 03:42 AM »
I thought we had a similar question poised for FH, then again it might have been for SLS.  In any case, I think the FH will fly sometime this coming year.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #3 on: 12/23/2016 06:53 AM »
Prior to September's failure Q1 2017 for FH looked likely so I don't think the slip will push it out of 2017.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2016 06:55 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #4 on: 12/23/2016 10:12 PM »
I've taken the unpopular vote. My expectation is a failure of some sort but that doesn't mean I think it will fly in 2017. If you don't like that....bah humbug

Online Comga

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #5 on: 12/23/2016 10:50 PM »
I wish we had this poll done last year and the year before to see if we were always this optimistic.

« Last Edit: 12/24/2016 12:17 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Barrie

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #6 on: 12/23/2016 11:50 PM »
I'm afraid events will conspire to prevent a flight, including 39A being just too damn busy (optimism, of a sort)

Online Comga

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #7 on: 12/24/2016 12:17 AM »
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
(Please spare us the real and detailed alternatives.)
That's 88% vs 75% in this poll.
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad and the photos of real FH hardware.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline savuporo

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #8 on: 12/24/2016 12:38 AM »
Someone asked Shotwell at a conference this year "I have same questions as in 2015, when is the RTF and when will Falcon Heavy fly?". I think that guy will have the opportunity to ask that same question again.
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #9 on: 12/24/2016 01:57 AM »
I chose "yay" but stand by this prediction:
- For most of the year (i.e. through the end of July) there is considerable disagreement about whether FH will fly before year end.

Note how that's a meta-prediction about predictions....
;)
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Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #10 on: 12/24/2016 02:01 AM »
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad

Just a second. When I voted for August in that other poll, wasn't I implicitly voting for a launch from a completely different launch pad?
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Offline watermod

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #11 on: 12/24/2016 02:04 AM »
I'm thinking it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.
So, sad to say, I voted NAY.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #12 on: 12/24/2016 04:47 AM »
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.

After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
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Offline meberbs

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #13 on: 12/24/2016 05:52 AM »
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.

I still stand by my yes vote in this poll. The pad will be ready, hardware is being built, there are a lot more reasons to expect it to launch than past years. I think people are getting into a "delayed before so it will be delayed again" thought process even though the status of readiness has changed. Plus I am sure some are expecting it to be held up by another anomaly investigation, which is more understandable.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #14 on: 12/24/2016 07:01 AM »
I think - like I said in the predictions thread - that half the year will pass without launch of the FH (whereas 39A will be very busy with catching up to the backlog). Then Elon will announce that the Red Dragon launch in 2018 will be the inaugural launch of the FH. So "Nay".

Offline MP99

Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #15 on: 12/24/2016 08:11 AM »
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.

After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
Falcon Heavy with crossfeed has been superceded by FH FT.

It seems that F9 is about to stop evolving, which is a perfect time to make an FH version of it.

Cheers, Martin

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #16 on: 12/24/2016 01:23 PM »
Nay. For entire 2017, FH will be always six months in future.
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline bolun

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #17 on: 12/24/2016 02:13 PM »
Yai. I hope so.  ;)

Online Comga

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #18 on: 12/24/2016 03:11 PM »
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago.  186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.
(snip)

You are so right.  That was TWO years ago.
That was before either of the F9 failures, wasn't it?
Perhaps that explains the increased skepticism.
SpaceX seems less omnipotent, even to fanboys. 
Progress is rapid, but not monotonic.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Arb

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Re: Will Falcon Heavy fly in 2017?
« Reply #19 on: 12/24/2016 08:29 PM »
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.
« Last Edit: 12/24/2016 08:29 PM by Arb »

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