Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2017?

None, all the landings so far were flukes (or fakes)
0 (0%)
1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
2 (1.2%)
4
6 (3.6%)
5
1 (0.6%)
6
11 (6.5%)
7
15 (8.9%)
8
17 (10.1%)
9
17 (10.1%)
10
19 (11.2%)
11
9 (5.3%)
12
19 (11.2%)
13
11 (6.5%)
14
11 (6.5%)
15
4 (2.4%)
16
7 (4.1%)
17
4 (2.4%)
18
4 (2.4%)
19
1 (0.6%)
20 or more
11 (6.5%)

Total Members Voted: 169

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 07:16 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) by SpaceX in 2017?  (Read 4702 times)

Offline MP99

I voted 10, though I didn't look into the spread of likely RTLS/ASDS/expended launches - so a bit arbitrary.

The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts.

BTW, I believe this condition is arbitrary and unnecessary. If an F9 or FH second stage blows up before MECO but a booster nevertheless makes it to a safe landing, then I'm claiming it and you'd be mean, mean, mean to deny me! :-)

Note that Blue's booster survived the abort test and landed OK despite expectation that it wouldn't.

cheers, Martin

Offline Lar

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I voted 10, though I didn't look into the spread of likely RTLS/ASDS/expended launches - so a bit arbitrary.

The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts.

BTW, I believe this condition is arbitrary and unnecessary. If an F9 or FH second stage blows up before MECO but a booster nevertheless makes it to a safe landing, then I'm claiming it and you'd be mean, mean, mean to deny me! :-)

Note that Blue's booster survived the abort test and landed OK despite expectation that it wouldn't.

cheers, Martin

Quote
The second stage can blow up one second after MECO (or even before, although surviving that and returning might be a bit harder) and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Fixed
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline whitelancer64

"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline pikawaka

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Voted for 16. In the number of launches poll, I said there would be 17 launches this year, with 1 Falcon Heavy flight. So 16 cores recovered out of 20. 3 are lost on heavy GTO missions similar to SES-9. Falcon Heavy's core is intentionally expended to demonstrate performance necessary for Red Dragon missions.

Offline Billium

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I voted 18 launches in 2017, so I'm going to guess 50% stick the landing. Also it is an odd number, and we need more of those in these polls.

Offline AndrewM

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13, I voted for 15 launches but I expect a few to either not attempt recovery or not land successfully. I also think 2 of 3 of the 1st FH stages will safely land.

Online John Alan

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I was going to go with 21-25... then talked myself down to 19...   :P

I'm assuming things go well...  ::)

I went with 20+ landings in this poll...
« Last Edit: 12/20/2016 08:12 PM by John Alan »

Offline bolun

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12 recoveries from 13 launches (1st FH will be "all expendable").

Offline Mader Levap

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This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P Potential for relaunches additionally complicates things.

I voted 14 for launches in general and no FH. With assumption that 2/3 of landings will be successful, it gives, rounding up, 10. Four will either crash/fall/topple on barge or wont be tried in first place for whatever reason (weather, launch of fully expendable F9 etc).
Be successful.  Then tell the haters to (BLEEP) off. - deruch
...and if you have failure, tell it anyway.

Offline deltaV

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This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P

I agree. IMO it would be better if this poll were about the fraction of cores landed, not the absolute number.

Offline Lar

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This poll is function of result in main poll, so it is doubly unreliable. :P

I agree. IMO it would be better if this poll were about the fraction of cores landed, not the absolute number.

I suppose someone could start that one, but it seems somehow... easier. :)  Put your thinking caps on and quit whining :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline zappatosin

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8 out of 10 recoveries succeed.

I'm optimistic about the core of their business model. :)

It's the pad and range limitations that bring my launch expectations down to 11 for 2017.

Offline Mark S

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In the other (number of launches) poll, I voted 11 launches, and I don't expect one of them to be FH (it's just not a priority). I assume a good recovery rate, and assume that some high performance launches will not even attempt to recover the first stage.

Therefore, I voted eight first stages will be successfully recovered this year. I hope I'm not being overly optimistic again. :(

Cheers!

Offline llanitedave

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I voted 10 and I hope that's pessimistic.  If not, what do I win?
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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The count is now 1 with a successful launch and landing of the first Iridium sat set. A note is that there was 0 scrubs and launch occurred on first attempt with also successful 1st stage landing. Next up is LC-39A with Echostar-23 for a Jan 26 launch.

My vote was 20 or more launches and landings this year with nearly an average of 2 a month. This is mainly because of the expected up to 8 launches from SLC-4E. With 12 from LC-39A and a possible 1 or 2 from a rebuilt SLC-40.

Offline deltaV

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I voted 17 launches (in the other thread) and 13 core recoveries.

Online Comga

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Despite the early success, voting has slowed or stopped.
The best fit value actually fell over time from 10.5 to 9.5.
That's a pretty big fraction of the bet fit number of launches of 13.5.  As a group we think SpaceX has this landing technolgy worked out.
Variance actually came down in the end, despite the success last Saturday.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline sdsds

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As a group we think SpaceX has this landing technolgy worked out.

And/or we think one launch will account for three returned cores.
-- sdsds --

Offline PerW

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I voted 13 launches in 2017, and guess 11 successful landed cores.
They made it look easy on the 14th January, and the pictures are magic! (a given picture to my desktop background)

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