Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 13356 times)

Online Lar

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POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« on: 12/12/2016 06:16 PM »
Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2017

Back by popular demand! (well, one guy asked me for it)... it's your chance to give us your best guess on how many orbital flight attempts SpaceX will have next year. Please read this post carefully, all the way to the bottom. The rules have been clarified (I used more colors, that's gotta help) and simplified (not really) and we have even more historical data for you to pore over than before. We had over 400 voters last year and there wasn't even a prize! Sadly, no prize this year either. But you want to vote anyway.

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2017:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0


Prior Results

Number of SpaceX flights in 2016 poll thread (actual total: 8,
      2 Dragons: CRS-8, and CRS 9
      6 non Dragon: Jason-3, SES-9, JCSAT-14, Thaicom 8, Eutelsat 117 West B/ABS-2A, JCSAT-16
      1 non Dragon pad anomaly: AMOS-6 )
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016: (actual total: 5 successes of 8 tries)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0


Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
        3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
        3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
        PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0


References

Totals: F9  from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_launches#Launch_history_and_manifest
           Dragon from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_(spacecraft)#List_of_Dragon_missions
Salo's US Flight Schedule
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html


Current 2017 SpaceX Flights Scheduled

(According to Salo's Thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan... if I bobbled something let me know)

NET December 16, 2016 early January - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10), MicroSat-1a, MicroSat-1b - Falcon 9-030 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 20:36
NET January 8 - Echostar 23 - Falcon 9-031 -  Kennedy LC-39A
NET January 22 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS-10), SAGE-III, SAGE NVP, STP-H5/ISEM - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or spring)
NET February - SES-10 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
March - NROL-76 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET March - Dragon SpX-11 (CRS-11), ROSA, MUSES, NICER - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 1st quarter - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10), MicroSat 1c, MicroSat 1d (or MicroSat 1a, MicroSat 1b) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET 1st quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 1st half quarter- Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A/Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - SES-11 (EchoStar 105) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
1st half (TBD) - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
NET 2nd quarter - Intelsat 35e - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (TBD)
NET 2nd quarter - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
June 1 - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS-12), CREAM - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A 
midyear - Demo Flight (dummy payload, ballast) - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
August - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2018)
September 13 - Dragon SpX-13 (CRS-13), ASIM, TSIS, MISSE-FF - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A
3rd quarter - SES-16/GovSat-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
3rd quarter - Es’hail 2 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
3rd quarter - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB 1, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, ARMADILLO, FalconSat 7, TBEx A, TBEx B, Prometheus 2-1, Prometheus 2-2, Prometheus 2-3, Prometheus 2-4, Prometheus 2-5, Prometheus 2-6, Prometheus 2-7, Prometheus 2-8, PSat 2, BRICSat 1, BRICSat 2, TEPCE 1, TEPCE 2, CP 9 (LEO), StangSat, DOTSI, CNGB, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
NET 3rd quarter - Iridium Next Flight 4 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-14 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or 4th quarter)
NET 2nd half - Europasat (HellasSat-3) - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or Proton Ariane 5)
4th quarter -  ORS-6 (COWVR, WSGF), "2017 Sun Synch Express"/SHERPA: SpaceIL lunar lander, Eu:CROPIS, ICEYE-1 (TBC), BlackSky Global 1, BlackSky Global 2, BlackSky Global 3, BlackSky Global 4, STPSat-5,  SkySat (xTBD) + over 13 sats - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET 4th quarter - Iridium Next Flight 5 (x10) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
October - SAOCOM-1A - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E 
late November - Early December - Hispasat 30W-6 (1F) Amazonas-5 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40  (or 2018)
November - Dragon v2 (manned test) (SpX-DM2) - Falcon 9 - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2018)
December 16 - Bangabandhu-1 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40
NET December 20 - TESS (Astro EX-1) - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 (or January 2018)
December - GRACE-FO 1, GRACE-FO 2, Iridium Next (x5) - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E (or January NLT February 2018)
TBD - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: eXCITe (PTB 1), Blacksky Global Pathfinder 2, Flock-2c (x56), Lemur-2 (x8), Corvus-BC 3, ICE-Cap, PropCube 2, Arkyd-6A, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA (KHUSAT 3), CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, OCSD B, OCSD C, Fox 1C, Fox 1D, Nayif 1, skCUBE, ITASAT 1, Aalto 1, DIDO 1, 3Cat 1, LMPC (AeroCube 9), ROBUSTA 1B, SUCHAI - Falcon 9 - Vandenberg SLC-4E
TBD - PSN-6, U.S. government satellite - Falcon 9 - TBD

piggybacked:
TBD - Kestrel Eye 1 - Falcon 9/SSPS - TBD


(Last year's list as of the time of the poll, for reference)

NET January   4   17 - Jason-3 - Falcon 9 v1.1 - Vandenberg SLC-4E - 18:42:18 (or 1st half of January (TBD))
mid-January (TBD) - SES-9 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 (or December 27, 2015)
NET January 3 8 February 7 - Dragon SpX-8 (CRS8), BEAM (Bigelow Expandable Activity Module) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 - 21:01 ~08:30
March 21 - Dragon SpX-9 (CRS9) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40 ~04:00
NET 1st quarter - Eutelsat 117 West B (Satmex 9), ABS 2A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
NET 1st quarter - JCSat-14 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
spring - FORMOSAT 5, SHERPA SSO: Arkyd-6, CNUSail 1, KAUSAT 5, SIGMA, CANYVAL-X 1, CANYVAL-X 2, STEP Cube Lab, EcAMSat, ISARA, CubeSats - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
May - Demo Flight - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
June 10 - Dragon SpX-10 (CRS10) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
1st half - JCSat-16 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
midyear - AMOS 6 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August 15- Dragon SpX-11 (CRS11) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
August - NEXT contract: 3U-CubeSat (x3) - GOLauncher-2 - TBD  ??? ? NOT a Falcon
NET August - Iridium Next Flight 1 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
2nd half - SES-10 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
2nd half - SES-11 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
October - STP-02: DSX, COSMIC-2A (equatorial): FORMOSAT 7A/7B/7C/7D/7E/7F, GPIM, OTB, FalconSat 6, NPSat 1, Oculus-ASR, Prox 1, LightSail B, Cubesats, Ballast - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or 2017)
NET October - Iridium Next Flight 2 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT - Vandenberg SLC-4E
4th quarter - Dragon SpX-12 (CRS12) - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - Es’hail 2 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - KoreaSat 5A/Mugungwha 5A - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
4th quarter - ViaSat-2 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or Ariane 5)
4th quarter - 30+ cubesats, tubesats - NEPTUNE N5 - Tonga NOT a Falcon
November - SAOCOM-1A, Itasat-1 - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Iridium Next Flight 3 (x10) - Falcon 9 FT- Vandenberg SLC-4E
NET December - Dragon v2 (unmanned test) (SpX-DM1)- Falcon 9 FT - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Inmarsat 5 F4 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A
late - Europasat/HellasSat-3 - Falcon Heavy - Kennedy LC-39A (or NLT 1st quarter 2017)
late - Thaicom 8 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
late - STPSat-5 - TBD - TBD  ??? ?
TBD - DragonLab-1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40
TBD - BulgariaSat 1 - Falcon 9 FT - Canaveral SLC-40


Poll Rules
- Poll closes same time as last year, around Jan 19.
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if certain launches happen or don't... take that into account when voting.
- No do-overs... I can't change anyone's vote without closing and reopening, and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- No late votes... I am not reopening the poll because you forgot. You can still post a rationale if you want.
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2015 or 2016). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Commsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count.
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magisty, make the call.

Practical Examples
- CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Amos-6 DID NOT COUNT.
- An FH launch WILL COUNT as one launch, not three, obviously.
- Grasshopper and F9R-suborbital tests DID NOT COUNT.
- Equivalent ITS suborbital tests WILL NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon Pad Abort Test (May 6, 2015) DID NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon In-Flight Abort Test WILL NOT COUNT.
- However, a failed commercial crew launch that results in a Dragon abort WILL COUNT if the launch otherwise counts (see CRS-7 vs AMOS-6.)



Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back... Again, in 2016, SpaceX was tracking to make pretty close to our consensus until AMOS-6 set them back... SpaceX has aggressive plans for 2017 too.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 04:45 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Bubbinski

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #1 on: 12/16/2016 06:34 PM »
I'm going conservative again this year. SpaceX has still not gotten to double digits in launches yet (in a year) but they've been getting closer. I say they finally, finally, barely make double digits this year with 10 orbital launches. By end of year they'll finally be positioned for a much higher launch cadence.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 06:36 PM by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #2 on: 12/16/2016 07:05 PM »
My 21-25 vote is based on 3 launches from LC-39A every 2 months and 7/8 flights from VAFB. The real question is the launch rate on LC-39A not the 7 or 8 flights from VAFB. For those the payloads will be ready and the problem is LV availability. On tap for LC-39A is at least 1 FH, 4 CRS, at least 1 CC, and ~12 commercial (4 of which are from those delayed from 2016). At 7 VAFB 5 gov, 1 FH, and at least 5 commercial GTO's the number is 21.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #3 on: 12/16/2016 07:11 PM »
Going with 10.

6 from LC39A, 4 from VAFB. No Falcon Heavy, either.
Attended space missions: STS-114, STS-124, STS-128, STS-135, Atlas V "Curiosity", Delta IV Heavy NROL-15, Atlas V MUOS-2, Delta IV Heavy NROL-37, SpaceX CRS-9, SpaceX JCSAT-16, Atlas V GOES-R.

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #4 on: 12/16/2016 07:25 PM »
So I guessed 16 last year and they launched 8. Therefore, using the scientific method, I am hoping for 20 flights this year, so I picked 10 for the poll.
Applicant for Astronaut Candidate for class of 2017 - Colonize Mars!

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #5 on: 12/16/2016 07:29 PM »
I went 16 launches.

They demonstrated cadence at the Cape before the mishap, if they can quickly get back to that cadence, and propagate that to Vandy, 16 won't be hard at all... as long as there isn't another mishap.  Of that I think two will be FH.  So that's 14+6 first stages, and I think 80% recovery of those is not unreasonable, so I went 16 recovered stages too.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2016 07:32 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Barrie

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #6 on: 12/16/2016 07:34 PM »
Yeah, my optimism and my pessimism duked it out for a while, then agreed on 15 - about half of Salo's schedule, but with a sympathy vote for an odd number, because I feel sorry for them.

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #7 on: 12/16/2016 07:38 PM »
Bother, I forgot that I wanted to vote for an odd number...  :)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #8 on: 12/17/2016 04:58 AM »
I went with 15 too. SpaceX we're doing one a month for 10 months up to September's failure so that's definitely a sustainable rate. At some point (mid?) next year they'll finally have 3 operational pads so a bit more than one per month over the course of the year seems reasonable.
I refuse to lower my guess by making any adjustment for further failures, I want to believe!  :D

Online RotoSequence

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #9 on: 12/17/2016 05:41 AM »
Going with twelve; I expect a few holdups and an abundance of caution will prevent them from sustaining the cadence of 2016 prior to the AMOS-6 explosion.

Online ZachS09

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #10 on: 12/17/2016 06:14 AM »
Went with 10 missions because obviously, there will be delays that all of you will be unaware of at first until SpaceX announces them. I believe one of the 10 will include the demo flight of the Falcon Heavy.
"Falcon 9 has landed. Landing operators, move into Procedure 11.100 on Recovery Net."

Offline Poole Amateur

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #11 on: 12/17/2016 06:23 AM »
Gone for 16. They have a big backlog to work through and I like to think they can achieve that number without making any mistakes and blow more stuff up. If they can reuse some cores without having to rebuild them too much, then perhaps they can make 16.

Would be great if they do, really don't want another bang.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2016 09:51 AM by Poole Amateur »

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #12 on: 12/17/2016 06:42 AM »
going conservative  :o

6 from Pad 39a one will be FH late in the year, and another will be the Dragon 2 test, so only 4 satellite/CSR launches
2 from Pad 40 late in the year, satellite/CSR
4 from Vandenberg
and to make it ODD a Christmas Present from Brownsville 1 for Nomadd

so 13 total...
I think that's enough to keep things interesting, more and some people might get bored :D
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 Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #13 on: 12/17/2016 12:05 PM »
Went with 15, as:

1. Fingers crossed, there will be no further major mishaps
2. I believe they should have worked most design-based issues by now.
2. They will do overall more than 1 per month, but not as far as 2 per month..


Overall 2016 was a bad year for me too, optimistic for 2017 though :)

Online nacnud

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #14 on: 12/17/2016 12:22 PM »
Lucky 13, no rationale just lucky 13.

Can anyone decipher from the manifest, if everything goes perfectly, how many are actually planned. The list is too information dense for me to skim read ;)

Edit: I counted 33, but like the stones at Avebury, I get a different number every time.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2016 01:17 PM by nacnud »

Offline saliva_sweet

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #15 on: 12/17/2016 12:30 PM »
My own wild guesses are that if they get five launches next year they won't go under. I expect them to get 8, same as this year, but my guesses have historically been low by 2 or 3. So I wouldn't be surprised if they get 10 or eleven. Anything more than that would be just fantastic.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #16 on: 12/17/2016 12:45 PM »
14. I'm confident they'll find their feet this year

Offline RonM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #17 on: 12/17/2016 01:44 PM »
I went with 12. Looks like SpaceX can average one launch per month per pad, but pad 40 is down, pad 39A hasn't had a launch yet, and we really don't know when RTF will start.

Once SpaceX gets all three pads going, we could be looking at over 30 flights per year. Then one of these years they add Brownsville for over 40 flights per year. However, if they don't stop blowing up stages, SpaceX can put itself out of business. They need to be more conservative with the F9 and FH.

Offline arachnitect

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #18 on: 12/17/2016 06:41 PM »
I vote 7.

If this were a probability distribution thread, I'd start ramping up probabilities around 4 or 5, assigning highest probabilities to 7,8,9 and rapidly falling off from there.  I think the probability of exceeding 11 launches is less that 1 in 30. I think the probability of exceeding 15 launches is less than 1 in 200.

In addition to the unknowns of RTF, I think the manifest is filled with troublesome missions and is very vulnerable to problems on both spacex and customer sides.

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #19 on: 12/17/2016 08:01 PM »
I guessed correctly last year at eight, but obviously without AMOS I would likely have been very far wrong.

Going to be a bit more optimistic for 2017 and go with 11.
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Offline hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #20 on: 12/17/2016 08:17 PM »
Voted 12.

2016 showed they can do more than one launch per month when things go well, but from experience it's quite unlikely they will go a whole year without hitting some significant setbacks. Just how big the setbacks are is very uncertain, I wouldn't be surprised to see anything from 7 to 15.


Online deadman719

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #21 on: 12/17/2016 08:48 PM »
I'm going with 12.

This a one up from what I thought last year. I'm hoping for more than 12 but feel it is a reasonable number that assumes delays. In my opinion, delays will result from getting 39A and 40 fully operational...call it teething pains. A very nice cadence should eventually be realized once the kinks are worked out.

At least one flight will be a FH mission.

Rob

 

Online pippin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #22 on: 12/17/2016 11:53 PM »
Going with 13 like last year.
The latest flow rate they had before AMOS-6 was good for more but then that probably contributed to the accident and they can't really afford another one so I don't see them becoming too aggressive with it.

Other then this year I do expect to see FH flying in 2017 (hey, that was one prediction I had right last year...).
Only one, though...
« Last Edit: 12/17/2016 11:56 PM by pippin »

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #23 on: 12/18/2016 12:28 AM »
Voted 15
There are 34 launches on starhawk92's manifest with 2017 dates.
SpaceX doubled their record from 2013 in 2014.  My guess is that they will almost do it again.

Year          2012   2013  2014  2015   2016
Launches       2         3        6        7        8
Poll Mean    1.95   3.84   7.81   10.61  12.44
Failures         0         0        0        1        1

The group consensus has been pretty accurate when there were no launch failures.
(In 2013 a rocket was ready but launched just after the start of 2014.  The same thing happened the next year.  It should happen again this year.)

The past polls say that the mean of our guesses, fitted to a Gaussian distribution, will not change much after the first few dozen votes, and we have nearly a hundred already. 

The votes are hard to fit, being so spread out.  I still think the choices should be pairs (10-11, 12-13, 14-15 etc.) 

The preference for even numbers persists except those of us who maybe consciously chose and odd number after my comments. :P
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 12:29 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline MP99

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #24 on: 12/18/2016 10:23 AM »
I will be voting 15, including one FH.

I assume that LC-39A will be up and running very early in the year, and LC-40 in Q2.

Clearly, SpaceX need to demonstrate reliable operations - another failure so soon after the last one could be a real issue for them. So, I expect to see them concentrating on this, then a ramping up of flight rate through the year

They clearly need a major increase in launch rate (thus the vote for many more than last year), but I don't see them clearing their backlog. :-(

Cheers, Martin

Edit: now voted 15.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 06:43 PM by MP99 »

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #25 on: 12/18/2016 11:21 AM »
I'm going with the optimistic 18 with 6 flights from Vandy and 1 a month from the Cape. The two pads in action is what gets them to their highest launch cadence yet.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #26 on: 12/18/2016 12:40 PM »
27

Assuming there is not another launch failure a cadence of 2 peer month should be pretty easy over the 2 launch pads, then towards the end of the year they can increase launch frequency with pad 40 back in service.

Even with a launch failure they should make over 12 launches, it seems to me that any vote less than 13 is basically saying that SpaceX will fail, and fail big.

Offline strangequark

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #27 on: 12/18/2016 01:17 PM »
11 successful launches, based on demonstrated cadence. 1 failure, based on current rate of tribal knowledge loss. No Falcon Heavy, which will be OBE.
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #28 on: 12/18/2016 01:39 PM »
I went with 18. With one pad coming into service from the start of the year and the other being rebuilt probably by the end of Q2 that seems reasonable, given their third pad at Vandenberg and their backlog.

However this all goes out the window if they have another launch failure.  :(

How likely that is will depend on how much more science SX plan to learn from their F9, F9SR and FH  launches. We know cross feed is now off the table for early FH flights, so that's deemed a case of too much pain for too little gain. 

At this stage a conventionally run company would seek to minimize launch risk by freezing it's LV design and operations procedures completely. I don't think SX will do this. I suspect SX will become more cautious about how it manages testing new procedures and hardware. The question is will any request be refused if the worst case result is the rocket blows up and takes the payload with it? 

Time will tell. I thought given all the Grasshopper testing they would nail the first stage landing on the first go. That turned out to be  optimistic.

[EDIT interesting what most people reckon the likely number is ]
« Last Edit: 12/18/2016 01:41 PM by john smith 19 »
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Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #29 on: 12/18/2016 06:32 PM »
21-25, because I'm an optimist, and because with the spotting of a core at McGregor, 1 at VAFB, 1 at the Cape, and the plan to reuse a stage for SES-10, that makes the next 4 cores backlogged. It is looking like they may be payload integration time and range availability limited this year.

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #30 on: 12/18/2016 06:58 PM »
I went with 8, i had been overly optimistic in the past. Hoping for more,  but trying to be realistic. Also don't see falcon heavy flying this year either. C'mon space x prove me wrong

Offline mheney

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #31 on: 12/18/2016 07:49 PM »
I went optimistic - 2+/month once they get going put me at 21-25.


Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #32 on: 12/18/2016 08:03 PM »
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.

Offline shm6666

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #33 on: 12/18/2016 08:11 PM »
Im going for 10 this time around. I hope we will see a Falcon Heavy, I think no failure but turnaround times and schedule difficulties will keep SpaceX busy.

But lets face it, if they do 10 launches, that is a huge success!

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #34 on: 12/18/2016 10:15 PM »
14, or once per month + a few extra. Including a failed FH launch. Because first times, you know how they are. And assuming they finally freeze the design of F9 until their backlog is reasonable.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #35 on: 12/18/2016 10:26 PM »
I'm going for 14 because that's what I predicted for 2016. If they don't hit at least that I shall predict it again next  year. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #36 on: 12/18/2016 11:58 PM »
Only a broken clock is ever _really_ correct...

Offline Danderman

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #37 on: 12/19/2016 04:01 AM »
8 launches, with 7 good and 1 not so good.

I should add that I have been very close to being on the mark for the last 2 years, and I always guess a lower number than most.

« Last Edit: 12/19/2016 07:24 PM by Danderman »

Offline jongoff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #38 on: 12/19/2016 08:19 AM »
On my 2017 predictions post, I said >10, though 12 is what I think is most likely. I wouldn't be horribly surprised if they got more than 15 flights in.

Things that could slow them down:
1- RTF after the Amos-6 pad failure
2- Aren't they transitioning to a new (and supposedly final) version of Falcon 9?
3- Getting Pad 39 up and running and pad 40 restored
4- Getting reused cores flying
5- Too many other major side projects on their plate (Falcon Heavy, Commercial Crew, Raptor/ITS, etc, etc)

I honestly hope that SpaceX can make it through 2017 without any failures.

~Jon

Offline pikawaka

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #39 on: 12/19/2016 01:03 PM »
I'm going with 17. 7 from Vandenberg and 10 from KSC seems doable if there are no failures. 3 of the KSC launches will be with "flight proven" rockets. Falcon Heavy will finally get off the ground this year. No failures this year, SpaceX will be on their toes with QA after 2 failures in 2 years.

Offline MrHollifield

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #40 on: 12/19/2016 04:38 PM »
Being wildly optimistic, I voted 21-25. I based that on:
16 launches (4 per quarter) from 39A/40.
6 launches from Vandy (assuming no Iridium payload backlogs).
3 launches from 39A (FH, CRS, DM1) after LC40 is back in service.

They've hit the 4/quarter tempo each of the last 2 years. If the F9 Block 5 design freezes about the time LC40 comes back on line, I think they can sustain that tempo off their primary East Coast pad. The question will be if the factory can keep up with that rate plus 9 or 10 launches off the other pads.

Offline mwfair

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #41 on: 12/19/2016 04:52 PM »
I'm guessing the cadence will average 3 weeks.
Mike Fair

Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #42 on: 12/19/2016 05:07 PM »
I don't know Mike, 3 a week seems a bit optimistic. :D

They were on a pace to make 18 last year and I think I'll stick with that since they still have to prove FH and 39A and get LC40 back on line. Which was about where they were last year come to think about it.
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Offline Remes

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #43 on: 12/19/2016 05:52 PM »
9

50% up compared to this year is an ambitous and excellent growth rate. (If they push harder I would be afraid of a lom, which would halt the launch counter for the remaining year).

Still the same. The only thing that differs is, that I'm sure they are going to try to raise the launch rate dramatically, and they will again encounter a loss of mission. I think chances are good, that the FH will be not within the 9 for this year (more urgent work on crewed flight).

Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #44 on: 12/19/2016 06:00 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #45 on: 12/19/2016 06:08 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #46 on: 12/19/2016 07:18 PM »
I don't know Mike, 3 a week seems a bit optimistic. :D

One a week has been done before

I voted two - I think they have some problems to work through
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Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #47 on: 12/19/2016 07:30 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2016 07:31 PM by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #48 on: 12/20/2016 05:32 PM »

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.

I have a degree in Mathematics and I couldn't do simple math in my head until I took up league darts. Now I can do addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division in my head even when dead drunk!
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Offline Billium

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #49 on: 12/20/2016 06:06 PM »
After being disappointed with mishaps in 2015 & 2016 I voted 2017 once again on the presumption of no mishap, I hope that isn't bad luck. They have no shortage of payloads, and I think they can build at least 2 cores/month, plus they might reuse some, so I don't think those are constraints. I believe they will have 2 pads to start 2017 and the 3rd will come back online mid 2017. I think the difficulty will be to process missions, I don't know if they have the people to process 2 missions at once at different pads. In theory they should be able to do 1/month/pad (the have shown that before) which would bring it to 24 (not enough missions at Vandy for 12 months worth, but I added some to Florida for 2nd pad). I scaled it back and voted 18 for scheduling conflicts, short term payload issues, weather, space is hard ect. They really need to come through this year, or they will loose a lot of business. I don't think we will see the Heavy this year, disappointed about that because I think that means mars slips to 2020 instead of 2018. If they get through this year without a mishap, and 12+ launches I will be happy.

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #50 on: 12/20/2016 06:29 PM »
I'm guessing 11, higher than I have guessed in previous years.
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Offline AndrewM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #51 on: 12/20/2016 06:32 PM »
I went with 15 as I voted 12 last year and feel they could have gotten it had the Amos-6 incident not occurred. They also should have 3 pads operational in 2017 unless something significant delays Pad 40.

Offline John Alan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #52 on: 12/20/2016 08:03 PM »
I was going to go with 21-25... then talked myself down to 19...   :P

I'm assuming things go well...  ::)

Offline bolun

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #53 on: 12/20/2016 08:21 PM »
I'm going with 13 (1FH included).  ;)

Offline PahTo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #54 on: 12/20/2016 08:25 PM »

Going with 12 (includes one FH attempt).  Hope it is more, but spaceflight is difficult.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #55 on: 12/21/2016 05:01 AM »
First time poll participant, so forgive me if that makes me overly optimistic.

Their launch cadence was already hitting around 1.5 launches a month before Amos happened.

Currently it seems they might hit the ground running with 2 launches in January. Even if they only average 1.5 launches a month for the first 6 months and gradually ramp the cadence up to 2/month in the second half of the year, that will already take them to 9+12=21 launches in 2017.

Once they have 3 pads in operation, we might even see the odd month with 3 launches, late in the year.

So I'm going with 24 launches for the year. All assuming no failures that halt operations of course.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2016 11:43 AM by M.E.T. »

Offline Dalhousie

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #56 on: 12/21/2016 09:47 AM »
Nine, one more than last year.
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Offline Bynaus

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #57 on: 12/21/2016 11:01 AM »
I am going with 13. One per month and a bit more. I think it's doable, but still challenging. If that works out without larger hickups, I am confident to go for >20 in 2018.

But why does reading the original post of this thread remind me of this xkcd comic? ;)

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #58 on: 12/21/2016 02:33 PM »
I was going to vote for 10, but then I figured what the heck. Let's turn it all the way to 11. (Yay for odd numbers!)

I voted 12 last year, which I thought was conservative, but turned out to be too high. So I will continue to lower my expectations until SpX proves otherwise.

Offline Mike Jones

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #59 on: 12/22/2016 12:32 PM »
7 launches until mid 2017 including  another  failure grounding Falcon 9 for the rest of the year and delaying FHeavy and crew Dragon by almost 2 years.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2016 04:29 PM by Mike Jones »

Offline Endeavour_01

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #60 on: 12/23/2016 12:51 AM »
I voted 12, which is a tiny bit down from my prediction last year (13). I think SpaceX will manage a launch every month (with one of the launches being the first Falcon Heavy). 
I cheer for both NASA and commercial space. For SLS, Orion, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starliner, Cygnus and all the rest!
I was blessed to see the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour on STS-99. The launch was beyond amazing. My 8-year old mind was blown. I remember the noise and seeing the exhaust pour out of the shuttle as it lifted off. I remember staring and watching it soar while it was visible in the clear blue sky. It was one of the greatest moments of my life and I will never forget it.

Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #61 on: 12/23/2016 08:22 PM »
Expecting a perhaps-optimistic 15-20, voted 18. I figure if they can get 7 and 8 rockets off the pad in the last two years while spending half of each year investigating failures, they should be able to get close to 20 this year with no failures.*

Should be able to do 6ish out of Vandenberg, 12ish out of 39A and a few from 40, minus a few overall due to inevitable pad teething issues.

*Please, please, please no more failures

Offline watermod

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #62 on: 12/24/2016 02:07 AM »
I suspect they will find the need to to move the HE tanks  out of the Oxygen with a pause for that.   This causes me to be a pessimist and say 9.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #63 on: 12/24/2016 01:15 PM »
14.

Justification and assumptions:

- No launch failure. Sadly, it is incerasingly risky assumption, considering they had already two years with one failure each (no, I don't care about "but it was static fire" nitpickery). Hopefully, they will fare way, way better than Proton reliability-wise in future.

- They already proven they can sustain 1/month launch cadence. So, 12. I wanted slightly more than that allowing for possibility they will launch twice in one month from time to time (probably closer to end of year).

- No FH. It will be, as always, six months in future for entire 2017. (that implies either Red Dragon will be on maiden FH flight or more likely it will slip to 2020)
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Offline eriblo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #64 on: 12/27/2016 04:49 PM »
End of Year prediction:  19.
I do not expect it to change but I will vote closer to the deadline as I think there might be more information regarding the plans for SLC-40 before then, especially if they have a successful RTF. (Hedging for further investigation delays or an early failure is an added bonus  ;) ).

Long motivation, included mostly for my own sake as I regret not writing one for all previous years:

Poll2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Prediction   249914
Launches 23678
Failures00011

The obvious extrapolation is 9 launches and 1 (or possibly 2) failures - however extrapolation is just a guess that they will have 1 failure and roughly the same launch rate...

Assumption 1): I expect no failures that severely impact the schedule. I didn't previous years, which might or might not have been optimistic, but the probability should be even lower now and I'm an optimist :).

The last three years I looked at the manifest and took all in H1, none in Q4 with individual guesses for Q3 and special missions (CRS, FH). This was optimistic in 2014 while the rate in 2015 was well above my guess until CRS-7. This year it would likely have been a little optimistic again if not for Amos-6. So manifest is not a good predictor (duh ::) - and now it's getting very crowded).
However, they were launching consistently at about 12/year (when launching) in the last two years.

Assumption 2): Pads can support at least 12 launches/year and pad, constrained by payloads and production.

Assumption 3): Pads 39A and SLC-4E will be ready for launches at year start, while SLC-40 will be back around midyear.

Assumption 4): I'm an optimist and have to try and compensate as much as possible.

Assumptions 1-3) would give 26, but heavy application of 4) brings it down to 19 (somewhat arbitrary, but it's odd and 21 seemed to good to be true :P). This includes some combination of re-teething problems with SLC-40, FH/crew related activities hogging 39A and lack of stages making the east coast perform like one pad with a few extra. The break down is as follows:

4xDragons  (Hoping for DM-1 is obviously against 4)).
5xIridium from Vandenberg  (all on schedule is incompatible with 4), as is a general Q4 and a TBD. CONAE might surprise with SAOCOM-1A).
9 - Echostar 23 to SES-16 from the manifest.  (This is pad constrained, but corresponds more or less to H1. So much for changing approach...)
1 FH (violently disregarding 4), but I just can't help myself :) ).

This was fun! I expect to be about as accurate as if I had used the slightly quicker dart-over-shoulder method :).

Offline Tass

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #65 on: 12/27/2016 08:42 PM »
I have successively tried to calibrate to a bit more pessimism yet kept guessing one too high. I really hope this is the year I finally guessed way too low.

I went with nine again.

   

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #66 on: 12/29/2016 04:53 AM »
Went with 12 for the last three years.
 14 this year.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #67 on: 12/30/2016 04:46 AM »
I voted 11, same as last year. They are back in the same position; only 2 pads, have to squeeze in FH and work around CRS launches and an abort test. They have a big back log, but they did last year too and were on course for 11-12 launches.

I feel that this is pessimistic, but SpaceX has not demonstrated any ramp up in launch schedule outside of the 20-30 days they proved over a year ago. That together with unavoidable delays and limited pads equals less than a launch a month on average.

If they get LC-40 up and running again quickly and make use of both pads then maybe the'll hit 13-15.

And I'm using all odd numbers because equality.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #68 on: 01/03/2017 02:59 PM »
Was on the verge of going for 11 but was then overcome by a wave of pessimism and have settled on 9.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #69 on: 01/03/2017 03:07 PM »
My purely intuitive pick is 17. 

Offline rsdavis9

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #70 on: 01/03/2017 03:15 PM »
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
bob

Offline Hauerg

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #71 on: 01/03/2017 03:22 PM »
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Your choice should be in BOLD..
At least mine is.

Offline rsdavis9

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #72 on: 01/03/2017 03:43 PM »
Anyway to find out how I voted? I think my guess was 18. I didn't post anything when I voted.
Your choice should be in BOLD..
At least mine is.

Thanks. Mine is 18! I think 12 is once per month and 24 is 2 so halfway between. Thats as detailed as my logic goes.
bob

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #73 on: 01/03/2017 03:48 PM »
I went with 18 - I feel that's a high, but comfortable, cadence that won't over stress two launch sites and gives wiggle room for some slippages as well as some high profile activities such as FH. After all, if you look at the overall picture, the parts are all there and ready for this (or even higher) number of launches. And of course the manifest is there. So the only thing that would stop this high number would be another failure - and if that happens then SpaceX will be dealing with a much bigger issue...
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Offline PerW

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #74 on: 01/04/2017 01:50 PM »
2015: 6, My guess was 8
2016: 7, My guess was 11
Today I guess 13 orbital flights for 2017, and I really hope that FH will be one of them.

But I would love if the below 2017 result would be true!

Also I did a long time prediction in mars 2016, a bit more optimistic then  ;):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39777.msg1502642#msg1502642
2016: 15
2017: 20
2018: 35
2019: 33
2020: 40


Offline Doesitfloat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #75 on: 01/05/2017 08:16 PM »
Well the old method of Spacex only launching prime numbers is not paying off anymore, time for a new equally insightful method.


The digit sum of 2017 and Falcon 9  => 2+0+1+7+9= 19

Offline jacqmans

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #76 on: 01/07/2017 08:45 AM »
6. They will have problems again....

Offline smoliarm

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #77 on: 01/07/2017 10:51 AM »
13
hope it's a lucky 13 ;)

BTW, something odd is going on in this poll: even numbers are not that dominant anymore :)

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #78 on: 01/11/2017 01:22 AM »
11 because SpaceX isn't the only company in line for the Eastern and West ranges.  :D

I optimistically expect 0 ruds.

Hopefully SpaceX will static fire the heavy, but there will almost certainly be too many adjustments for the Heavy to launch in 2017.

As a SpaceX fan, I'm just now beginning to appreciate Blue Origin's motto.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #79 on: 01/13/2017 02:44 PM »
http://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-peek-at-spacex-data-shows-loss-in-2015-heavy-expectations-for-nascent-internet-service-1484316455

"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."

Offline llanitedave

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #80 on: 01/14/2017 05:06 AM »
Guessed 17, and I think that may be as many as they can handle.  Weather alone can slow them down.
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Offline craigcocca

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #81 on: 01/14/2017 05:26 AM »
Given that they have the Iridium NEXT constellation to keep VAFB busy this year, I'll go with 15.
-- Craig

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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #82 on: 01/14/2017 05:35 AM »
Love the fact that this year's poll has such a wide and more even spread than normal  :)
Of course hate the reason why (two failures)  :(

I think this year is going to be quite a ride!

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #83 on: 01/14/2017 05:52 AM »
Cross-posting for info:

In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.

Edit: I should have added she then said "and then increase may be 50% annually"
« Last Edit: 01/14/2017 06:10 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #84 on: 01/14/2017 06:33 PM »
The count is now 1 with a successful launch of the first Iridium sat set. A not is that there was 0 scrubs and launch occurred on first attempt with also successful 1st stage landing. Net up is LC-39A with Echostar-23 for a Jan 26 launch.

My prediction was 21-25 launches this year with an average of 2 a month. This is mainly because of the expected up to 8 launches from SLC-4E. With 12 from LC-39A and a possible 1 or 2 from a rebuilt SLC-40.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #85 on: 01/15/2017 12:07 AM »
"Mr. Musk targeted 27 launches for this year despite having never managed more than eight in a year. By 2019, he projected SpaceX will launch 52, or one a week, according to the documents."
I wonder for how many years they had this kind of projection?
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #86 on: 01/15/2017 01:46 AM »
With the current glut of cores undergoing prep, I expect a strong start through March, followed by a slowdown as production catches up, followed by a ramp in late summer/fall as reuse comes into vogue. 10 before 8/1 and 10 after 8/1.

Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #87 on: 01/15/2017 05:43 AM »
I won't officially vote until near the poll-closing date in mid-January but I'm currently leaning towards ~16 launches next year. My rationale is that they'll be able to launch about twice per month now that they have two east-coast pads (39A and 40) and they'll spend a total of ~4 months with all launches on hold investigating ~1 significant anomaly and ~1 loss of vehicle. Therefore I expect (12 - 4) * 2 = 16 launches. Note that 1 LOV in 16 launches is a 94% success rate, which is about average for commercially-competitive launch vehicles these days.

The fact that the RTF flight was successful with zero scrubs raises my estimate of their launch rate slightly. I'll vote 17.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #88 on: 01/15/2017 05:04 PM »
I  went with 15 as an optimistic number.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2017 05:05 PM by Patchouli »

Offline hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #89 on: 01/15/2017 08:37 PM »
In the extended interview with Gwynne Shotwell, on the CBS This Morning podcast, she says SpaceX are aiming for 20 - 24 launches this year.
"Half SpaceX official manifest" has pretty good track record so far, so I'm feeling pretty good with 12 ;)

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #90 on: 01/16/2017 09:53 PM »
The poll is still open a few more days, but I figure most folks have voted. So, here are some summary statistics:

Mode: 12
Median: 14
Mean: 14.3

Offline rickl

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #91 on: 01/16/2017 11:41 PM »
I forgot about this poll until now.  I picked 12, which I think is the same number I picked last year.  It's kind of a pessimistic number, because they should be able to do better than that.  I hope they don't have any more failures, or the company could be in trouble.


Amusingly, each time I've taken this poll, I just picked a number out of the air, without trying to explain or justify it, and before reading the other comments.  Each time the number I picked has turned out to be the most popular number.
Nominal now means "Yeehah!!"

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #92 on: 01/17/2017 07:27 PM »
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.

SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.

If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.

I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #93 on: 01/17/2017 08:54 PM »
I voted 13. Voted 11 last year, and they got 8 (almost 9) and then AMOS 6. Without failure, they likely would've gotten 12 or 13.

SpaceX hopes for 1 flight every two weeks. That's 26 per year and has over 30 on the manifest. 13 is half of 26.

If I count last year as 9, then assume 50% growth, that's 13.5. If I assume 8, then it's 12.

I think they most likely won't have a failure this year in which case is guess 15-16 launches. But there's a chance something will go wrong, so I'm pulling back to 13.

It's interesting that the two of us are so close to each other's guesses this time around. I guessed 12 back on the day they opened this poll--but I'm hoping to finally come in below what SpaceX actually achieves. Last year I think I guessed 10. So far I've always been overoptimistic in spite of thinking I was being pessimistic. Hopefully this year is my first year that changes, and I end up looking like a wet blanket.

~Jon

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #94 on: 01/19/2017 03:30 AM »
I have to call this one a bit early.
Similar evolution to last year. 
Within a few days the best fit to a Gaussian distribution centered on ~13.5 and never moved. 
That's just over one per month.
Variance rose to 5 and barely crept up afterwards despite steady voting.
We need to keep separate votes for higher numbers.  21-25 was just too popular and hard to fit.  I counted that as averaged over each of the five bins.
On the other hand, only two people voted <6.
Now, with one success already, let's keep our fingers crossed for SpaceX to exceed our expectations.
« Last Edit: 01/19/2017 03:31 AM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #95 on: 01/19/2017 03:50 AM »
Those are very pretty pictures, but let's see last year's, how did we do against reality? :)

Also, some of you cowboys like to wait till the last minute, dontcha?
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #96 on: 01/19/2017 09:15 PM »
I voted 13, but I think their odds of getting less than 6 are greater than them getting more than 30.
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #97 on: 01/19/2017 09:24 PM »
Interesting that 3,4,5 got no votes AT ALL...

I may extend the single numbers out farther next year before switching to 5s....
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline subzero788

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #98 on: 01/19/2017 10:15 PM »
Voted 9. Being conservative always seems to pay off in these polls

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #99 on: 01/20/2017 01:13 PM »
Hmm, two guys voted one or two launches. They probaby assumed another failure.

First guy already lost (apparently he counted on two failures in row). There WILL be at least one launch attempt.
Second guy will win only if this (EchoStar) launch attempt ends in failure AND RTF wil be longer than 11 months. Second assumption would be pretty probable under these circumstances, actually.

On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!
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Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #100 on: 01/20/2017 05:50 PM »
On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!

Well SpaceX seem to be aiming for one launch every 2 weeks from 39A (that is 24) + 8 from Vandy + 4 months of a launch every 2 weeks from SLC-40 (9 more). So an optimist would say 41!

Add in a break in rhythm for FH and the inevitable weather and range delays (those pesky boats and planes) and 35 seems possible.

I voted 27 (which is possibly the 2nd most optimistic) and that would only launch 87% of the manifest.

As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure. My conclusion is that most of the votes were from pessimists, despite the reputation for having lots of SpaceX fanboi around, it seems that only one voted :o

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #101 on: 01/20/2017 06:49 PM »
On the other side, who the hell voted >35? It is more than anything listed in manifest (notoriously optimistic in itself)!
As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure.
... or something else external that prevents things... payload shortage (probably not this year but within a year or two if they chew the manifest???) ban on launches by the government, UFO invasion, etc.

None of those seem very likely. So ya maybe we are all pessimists.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #102 on: 01/20/2017 07:15 PM »
As SpaceX should have over 20 cores available this year and they will have three launch sites available for the last few months and they have demonstrated a cadence of a flight per 3 weeks from one launch site, then anything under 17 implies that there will be another launch failure. My conclusion is that most of the votes were from pessimists, despite the reputation for having lots of SpaceX fanboi around, it seems that only one voted :o

They have not yet demonstrated a sustained cadence at that rate over many months. Nor have they shown they have enough experienced personnel to support concurrent mission planning, integration etc on multiple pads over many months.

The whole history of SpaceX is that things turn out harder than they expected, although they get there in the end. I have no trouble believing that they'll achieve it next year, but for this year my guess is that the ramp up won't be as fast as they think (hence I plumped for 15.)

Offline philw1776

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #103 on: 01/21/2017 03:13 PM »
13 last year and 13 again this year.  Hope to underachieve.
Risk of failure causing a launch hiatus at even above 90% reliability makes high teens to 20s less probable.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #104 on: 02/01/2017 05:14 PM »
An item missed even by me, is the capability of the HIF at 39A to process and handle multiple payloads and cores in parallel.

The core for Echostar 23 is in its last week of processing.

Another core is being processed for the CRS-10 flight. In fact it had been in the HIF for a while anticipating a short duration between launches. Now the order is reversed but the shortened duration capability is now evident.

The key here is that SpaceX could literally maintain a less than 2 week duration between launches with this very large HIF. So the minimum time between launches of ~14 days set by the practical limit of duration at SLC-40 does not apply at LC-39A.

The ability of processing not only 2 cores but 2 payloads in parallel would allow a 30 day easy processing schedule for payloads and cores but launch at 15 days or even a possible every 10 days since the HIF is large enough to easily process up to 5 cores and larger and more payloads than the SLC-40 HIF could ever process.

So my earlier 21+ pick stands even with the delays because the launch schedule out of LC-39A could be rather brisk of 2+ per month. Add to that the every other month launch from SLC-4 and the limiting factor for number of launches is the manufacture rate of Upper Stages.

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #105 on: 02/19/2017 07:32 PM »
2 launches. The first person who chose 1 launch has officially lost.

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #106 on: 02/19/2017 07:45 PM »
As of February 19

Number of people who were wrong: 1 (0,3%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 1 (0,3%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 319 (99,7%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

Probability of enjoying launch statistics after a succesfull launch: 100%

Online HIP2BSQRE

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #107 on: 02/19/2017 08:51 PM »
Well --SpaceX has done 2 launches in 6 week.  We expect at least another 2 before the end of March.  That will be 4 per quarter.  I think that I voted for 13.  But if SpaceX can keep the rate up the min should be around 16+ for 2017.  Now with three pads open starting in the fall - it seems very doable.  Time will tell.

Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #108 on: 02/19/2017 09:52 PM »
Well --SpaceX has done 2 launches in 6 week.  We expect at least another 2 before the end of March.  That will be 4 per quarter.  I think that I voted for 13.  But if SpaceX can keep the rate up the min should be around 16+ for 2017.  Now with three pads open starting in the fall - it seems very doable.  Time will tell.
Just for some more math: They could be at 3 by the end of Feb. At 3 launches in 2 months gives 18 launches in a year, if 2 then launched in March, that would be 5 in 3 months, or 20/year. Obviously they might not keep up at that rate, or these launches could be delayed for all sorts of reasons, but the high end votes aren't out of the running. (Except for the one that was for more launches than the expected available number of payloads.)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #109 on: 02/24/2017 09:13 AM »
So looks like SpaceX are aiming for another 7 (conceivably 8) launches by end of June (or two a month from March onwards):

Quote
Industry official: @SpaceX has 7 launches from mid-March (EchoStar 23) to mid-June (@IridiumComm Next No. 2).

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/834877195021615108

Obviously remains to be seen if they can achieve it, but we know Iridium have been told June for their next launch so SpaceX seem confident enough for the next few months to be telling customers.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2017 09:15 AM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #110 on: 02/25/2017 10:14 AM »
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #111 on: 02/25/2017 11:34 AM »
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

But, but, this just can't be right. That would mean my prediction was wrong

Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #112 on: 02/25/2017 03:34 PM »
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

But, but, this just can't be right. That would mean my prediction was wrong
Exactly, and it would mean my admittedly optimistic prediction might be right, that's just inconceivable :P

Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #113 on: 02/26/2017 01:08 PM »
There aren't any ULA launches from the Cape from late March until late June. So, that is a 3 month period where SpaceX won't have range conflicts. If they are going to achieve a high launch rate from the Cape this year, I think we'll start to see it in this 3 month period.

This may also explain why Iridium 2 was pushed to mid-June. SpaceX wants to take advantage of having the range all to themselves at the Cape to lower the backlog.

Offline skybum

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #114 on: 02/27/2017 09:31 AM »
From the Iridium delay to June is the bottle neck in the build or testing of boosters that is limiting launch rate to less than 2 a month. Probably less than 1.5 per month. But after June the launch rate should pick up. So total of launches through end of May will probably be around 6 or 7. But after June at 2 a month the launch total could reach 12 or 13 by end of August. Add another 8 through to the end of year and you get 20 or 21.

I'm a huge SpaceX fan, but feel like others are being too optimistic here. I really do think that SpaceX is very much on the right track, however booster availability isn't the only bottleneck here. We've also seen launches slip due to:

- Pad availability
- Range availability
- ISS visiting vehicle scheduling conflicts
- Payload availability

Note that none of those things are particularly within SpaceX's zone of control. So even if they do everything 100% right, there will still be a meaningful lag time while the rest of the world figures out how to deal with the advent of cheap and frequent space launches.

For this reason, I voted for 12 launches this year -- a 50% increase year-on-year. That would be solid, satisfactory progress. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty. Fewer than 8 launches would be sorely disappointing, and more than 18 would be utterly gobsmacking.

Just suggesting that it might be good to temper expectations a bit, so that you can appreciate that SpaceX is making good progress even if they don't do dozens of launches this year.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #115 on: 02/27/2017 01:49 PM »
12 is only an increase if they have another failure, since they were on pace for 12+ in both 2015 and 2016.

A year without failures would be great. A 50% increase in rate would be great. Both of those together would get them to 18+.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #116 on: 03/13/2017 09:25 PM »
My estimate still stands at 23.

6 by 1 June (4 more total in March/April/May from LC39A only)
8 in June thru September (2 per month - 1 LC39A and 1 LC4E)
9 in Oct thru Dec (3 per month - 1 LC39A, 1 SLC-40, and 1 LC4E)


Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #117 on: 03/17/2017 02:14 PM »
Now at count of 3 at 2.5 months into 2017.
At that rate that is 14 for the year. But SpaceX is aiming for 6 by 1 June.

Until reach 6 the poll is in a no-man's land since no one voted for 3 4 or 5.

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #118 on: 03/19/2017 01:08 PM »
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)


Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #119 on: 03/19/2017 03:37 PM »
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

To me, this is less of a contest of who is "right" (with wonderful prizes!) than it is a way to harness the wisdom of crowds to see what the consensus is.
Our collective impression is between 13 and 14 launches this year. 

It is not yet the end of the first quarter of the year.  It's pretty early to be adjusting projections for the year.
You can do all the extrapolation and calculation and discussion of the two failures, description of launch pads, tracking of first stages, and contemplating on reuse, but each of us has read about all of these and formed our various opinion.    Yours is just as valid as the other 300+ that were entered into the poll.

(those of you who didn't vote, you are just "the critic".  Get in the ring next time.)
YMMV, as may your opinion
« Last Edit: 03/19/2017 03:38 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #120 on: 03/19/2017 04:33 PM »
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flights

Number of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)
Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)
Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)
Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)

To me, this is less of a contest of who is "right" (with wonderful prizes!) than it is a way to harness the wisdom of crowds to see what the consensus is.
Our collective impression is between 13 and 14 launches this year. 

It is not yet the end of the first quarter of the year.  It's pretty early to be adjusting projections for the year.
You can do all the extrapolation and calculation and discussion of the two failures, description of launch pads, tracking of first stages, and contemplating on reuse, but each of us has read about all of these and formed our various opinion.    Yours is just as valid as the other 300+ that were entered into the poll.

(those of you who didn't vote, you are just "the critic".  Get in the ring next time.)
YMMV, as may your opinion

Well, for what it's worth, I think it can be both :)
A way to find out what the consensus about SpaceX flights will be during the year, with enlighted opinions of this community AND somehow a funny game about who's prediction would be right or wrong.

I somehow agree with the fact that non-voters should not complain nor critic the choices. I personnaly chose 15 which I find still realistic at this point.

I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame :(
 

Offline skybum

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #121 on: 03/22/2017 09:44 AM »
My estimate still stands at 23.

6 by 1 June (4 more total in March/April/May from LC39A only)
8 in June thru September (2 per month - 1 LC39A and 1 LC4E)
9 in Oct thru Dec (3 per month - 1 LC39A, 1 SLC-40, and 1 LC4E)

From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.

Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not. 

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #122 on: 03/22/2017 11:40 AM »
From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.
Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not.

Given SpaceX's current backlog, is payload availability really an issue for the next 12-24 months?

Offline spacenut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #123 on: 03/22/2017 12:31 PM »
They still have to have a FH demo flight (3 cores).  They have to get in Dragon 2 flight.   That is their own, not payloads that are available.  I voted 12 to be realistic, but I hope they can do over 20. 

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #124 on: 03/22/2017 01:52 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #125 on: 03/22/2017 03:13 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.

Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
Mark

Offline rpapo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #126 on: 03/22/2017 03:16 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)

So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8

For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.

Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.

So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.
The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.

Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
It may also be slightly limited by the fact that the LC40 HIF can only hold one rocket at a time, compared to the HIF at LC39A, which can hold five cores at once, and can therefore be prepping the next mission before the current mission gets off the ground.
An Apollo fanboy . . . fifty years ago.

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #127 on: 03/22/2017 03:49 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.

Online mme

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #128 on: 03/22/2017 04:21 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past. :)
Mark

Offline EgorBotts

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #129 on: 03/22/2017 04:50 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past. :)

Well, to me, predictions should not come with "new info..." and past tense in it :)

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #130 on: 03/22/2017 05:01 PM »
The new info on launching cadence capability is
2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)
1 / month on SLC4E
1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)


I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.
So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16.

Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Current Launch date for SES-10 is March 29 (13 day turnaround for LC39A). Except for Atlas V slip it would have been March 27 (11 day turn around for LC39A). So a 15 day turn around average over the next 2 months (April and May) are not out of the question. But rightly things never go perfectly and there may be a few day slip of several of the 4 next launches after SES-10. So At least 2 more if not 3 by 1 June with the next one early June 3rd/4th (For 2017 by 1 June 6th/7th/8th more likely 6 than 8 but 8 is still possible). For April and May there are actual launch dates posted for the next 3 missions past SES-10. http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0

When has SpaceX posted launch dates for more than the next mission if even that?
The existence of these launch dates in the range schedule mean that SpaceX is serious about the launch dates.

Tags: range