Author Topic: NASA's New Direction  (Read 53302 times)

Online mike robel

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #20 on: 12/21/2016 05:50 PM »
We have demonstrated Orion can launch on a Delta IV.  If SLS is cancelled, then Orion could be put on the Delta, ULA (located in Alabama) would still bring space bucks (and maybe an increased production flow for Delta) in, so the Alabama delegation would be happy, while MS would be upset at losing SLS manufacture,  marshal continues to manage Orion.

Orion could then fly to the Space Station, this would potentially upset SpaceX and Boeing.   But maybe all three could fly there or not.

Without ISS or a BEO destination, though, what would be the point for US Government manned space?


Online Lar

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #21 on: 12/21/2016 05:51 PM »
This feels like one of many topics that all end up talking about SLS and what to do post SLS to preserve jobs and keep the Senate happy. Maybe let's not do that?
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Offline clongton

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #22 on: 12/21/2016 06:10 PM »
We have demonstrated Orion can launch on a Delta IV.  If SLS is cancelled, then Orion could be put on the Delta ...

1. Delta-IV is not human rated. No crew can fly on it.
2. Delta-IV is being retired. No more Delta's will fly.
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Offline KSC Sage

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #23 on: 12/21/2016 06:42 PM »
We have demonstrated Orion can launch on a Delta IV.  If SLS is cancelled, then Orion could be put on the Delta, ULA (located in Alabama) would still bring space bucks (and maybe an increased production flow for Delta) in, so the Alabama delegation would be happy, while MS would be upset at losing SLS manufacture,  marshal continues to manage Orion.

Orion could then fly to the Space Station, this would potentially upset SpaceX and Boeing.   But maybe all three could fly there or not.

Without ISS or a BEO destination, though, what would be the point for US Government manned space?


A fully fueled Orion could also be launched into LEO on Falcon Heavy.  A NASA procured Falcon Heavy could easily fit on the current ML and be launched off Pad-39B.  A SpaceX commercial Falcon Heavy could launch off Pad-39A 90 minutes later with a TLI stage and dock to the Orion in LEO to send it to the moon.  This scenario would cost a lot less than one SLS launch.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2016 06:44 PM by KSC Sage »

Offline Danderman

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #24 on: 12/21/2016 07:14 PM »
What would be the point of Orion if SLS were canceled?

SLS exists to launch Orion.

Orion exists to use SLS.

Offline woods170

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #25 on: 12/21/2016 07:22 PM »
What would be the point of Orion if SLS were canceled?

SLS exists to launch Orion.

Orion exists to use SLS.

IMO no. The scenario will IMO play out like this:

Orion exists to use Ares I
Orion exists to use SLS
Orion exists to use [put name of new launcher here]

Offline deltaV

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #26 on: 12/21/2016 07:23 PM »
Greg Autry, who is on the Trump NASA Transition Team, had this to say about NASA on 15 October.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregautry/2016/10/15/space-policy-101-for-clinton-and-trump/#55a319962853

AFAICT that op-ed gives Greg Autry's personal opinion only. Trump's tirades against the F-35 and the Air Force One replacement suggest that he may be receptive to these ideas, but he may not.

Online mike robel

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #27 on: 12/21/2016 08:17 PM »
We have demonstrated Orion can launch on a Delta IV.  If SLS is cancelled, then Orion could be put on the Delta ...

1. Delta-IV is not human rated. No crew can fly on it.
2. Delta-IV is being retired. No more Delta's will fly.

Speaking Hypothetically, Delta IV could be both human rated and maintained if someone wants to Pay for it.  Delta IVH is being retained for a time.  Atlas was not Human Rated at first, but will be so CST and Dreamchaser can fly off it.

For that matter, Orion should also be able to be adapted to Vulcan or FH..


Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #28 on: 12/21/2016 08:29 PM »
We have demonstrated Orion can launch on a Delta IV.  If SLS is cancelled, then Orion could be put on the Delta ...

1. Delta-IV is not human rated. No crew can fly on it.
2. Delta-IV is being retired. No more Delta's will fly.

Speaking Hypothetically, Delta IV could be both human rated and maintained if someone wants to Pay for it.  Delta IVH is being retained for a time.  Atlas was not Human Rated at first, but will be so CST and Dreamchaser can fly off it.

For that matter, Orion should also be able to be adapted to Vulcan or FH..

I can't find it now, but as I recall that back in 2011 or so ULA was saying it would cost ~1.2B to human-rate Delta IV Heavy.  Part of that was obviously crew tower infrastructure related, and ULA is planning for Vulcan to be human-rated so they can fully retire Atlas V, so I think it's just a matter of timing to understand if Vulcan would be the preferred backup to the SLS for Orion.

As to Falcon Heavy, you would think it's possible to use it too, but if the Orion is not expected to be used much then it may not make sense to have it able to launch on more than one system, meaning some sort of competition would happen to determine who it would be.

But is the Orion really needed?

I much prefer a far more modular approach, one that is based on what we have learned from the ISS.  Unfortunately the Orion does not fit into that...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline clongton

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #29 on: 12/21/2016 11:52 PM »
I can't find it now, but as I recall that back in 2011 or so ULA was saying it would cost ~1.2B to human-rate Delta IV Heavy.

It's somewhere in one of the DIRECT threads where we discussed this at length. That is a huge expense for sure, but the big stopper was that the RS-68 is an Air Force engine and they absolutely did not want to change it to be human rated. Our team received a direct communication from them asking us to stop promoting a human-rated RS-68 because it was not going to be allowed.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #30 on: 12/22/2016 04:16 AM »
I can't find it now, but as I recall that back in 2011 or so ULA was saying it would cost ~1.2B to human-rate Delta IV Heavy.

It's somewhere in one of the DIRECT threads where we discussed this at length.

I saw it on a ULA pitch deck that Michael Gass provided to Congress around 2011.  It also showed the planned evolution of the Atlas V and Delta IV into heavier variants that would have surpassed the SLS in capabilities.

Quote
That is a huge expense for sure, but the big stopper was that the RS-68 is an Air Force engine and they absolutely did not want to change it to be human rated. Our team received a direct communication from them asking us to stop promoting a human-rated RS-68 because it was not going to be allowed.

I heard that (maybe from you), although now that ULA is moving to the Vulcan that makes the need to human-rate Delta IV Heavy even less likely, since there are no near-term needs for the Orion that can't wait for a human-rated Vulcan (or even Vulcan Heavy).
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline yg1968

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #31 on: 12/22/2016 01:56 PM »
Trump transition office adding commercial space expertise to NASA landing team:

http://spacenews.com/trump-transition-office-adding-commercial-space-expertise-to-nasa-landing-team/

Quote
The transition office added Charles Miller to the NASA “landing team” on Dec. 20, according to an update of the rosters of the landing teams assigned to various federal agencies on the transition website.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #32 on: 12/29/2016 01:20 PM »
Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley on CNN about the PE making some noise about a Moon Shot for NASA for the upcoming 50th anniversay. When pressed for more he wasn't sure what he meant by it. I guess I'm not the only one who doesn't understand "Trumpian"... ;D
« Last Edit: 12/29/2016 01:22 PM by Rocket Science »
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #33 on: 12/29/2016 03:54 PM »
Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley on CNN about the PE making some noise about a Moon Shot for NASA for the upcoming 50th anniversay. When pressed for more he wasn't sure what he meant by it. I guess I'm not the only one who doesn't understand "Trumpian"... ;D

Having looked at several of these reports, it looks like Trump told the historian that he (Trump) wants a presidential address with big themes, and he referenced Reagan and JFK. And he asked, or was told, about JFK announcing the lunar goal. So I think that the discussion was in terms of what a past president did, not an indication that the future president is interested in the Moon.
The PE said it had to specifically to do with NASA...motivating the nation...for the 50th anniversary of the Moon landing... FWIW....
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #34 on: 12/29/2016 04:07 PM »
Could fly around the Moon, if you used the iCPS again and sped up Orion's systems.

Abort testing needs to be sped up, too.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2016 04:11 PM by Robotbeat »
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #35 on: 12/29/2016 04:13 PM »
Here is Prof. Brinkley's twitter account if someone wishes a clarification...

https://twitter.com/profdbrinkley?lang=en
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"

Offline Star One

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #36 on: 12/29/2016 04:50 PM »
Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley on CNN about the PE making some noise about a Moon Shot for NASA for the upcoming 50th anniversay. When pressed for more he wasn't sure what he meant by it. I guess I'm not the only one who doesn't understand "Trumpian"... ;D

Having looked at several of these reports, it looks like Trump told the historian that he (Trump) wants a presidential address with big themes, and he referenced Reagan and JFK. And he asked, or was told, about JFK announcing the lunar goal. So I think that the discussion was in terms of what a past president did, not an indication that the future president is interested in the Moon.
The PE said it had to specifically to do with NASA...motivating the nation...for the 50th anniversary of the Moon landing... FWIW....

This is the original article and quote.

Quote
“He went on and on about Reagan and how much he admires him. But it wasn’t all about Reagan. He spoke about Kennedy and how he was able to get the country motivated, to go to the moon. He’s thinking about both men as he starts to write the speech, which is something he’s now taking the lead on,” the person said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/28/trump-tells-visitors-hes-drafting-his-inaugural-speech-with-reagan-and-kennedy-in-mind/?utm_term=.bbfd05b6f899

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #37 on: 12/29/2016 04:57 PM »
Huh, so sounds more generic. Probably won't be a big push, then. Maybe a flight around the Moon around 2020, as planned.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline DarkenedOne

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #38 on: 12/29/2016 05:19 PM »
The way I see it Trump has the opportunity to relive America's former glory in space, thus fulfilling his commitment to "make america great again" if he refocuses NASA back to landing on the Moon. 

We have to remember that it was only 9 years between when Kennedy was elected in 1960 and and the first landing occurred in 1969.  In 1960 NASA had no heavy lift vehicles and had only just succeeded in putting astronauts in LEO. 

Given that SLS and Orion are in the latter stages of development, and given that NASA has vastly more experience than the NASA of the 1960, I believe that Apollo style lunar landings could be accomplished without a dramatic increase in NASA's budget by Trump's second term (assuming he has one).  The only major remaining piece would be a lander.  If the development for a lander is started soon then there should not be a problem completing it in 8 years.

Reliving the glory of Apollo would definitely go a long ways toward "making America great again."

Offline clongton

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Re: NASA's New Direction
« Reply #39 on: 12/29/2016 05:43 PM »
Could fly around the Moon, if you used the iCPS again and sped up Orion's systems.

Dragon2/FH should be able to do an Apollo 8 style mission long before then.
Could even fly a mixed crew - 2xNASA & 2xSpaceX - to demonstrate the new way of doing business.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2016 05:45 PM by clongton »
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