Poll

What launch window will see the first ITS Mars-bound flight?

2024
11 (11.7%)
2026
27 (28.7%)
2029
22 (23.4%)
2031 or beyond
13 (13.8%)
Never
14 (14.9%)
Option added by request - 2022
7 (7.4%)

Total Members Voted: 94

Voting closed: 10/30/2016 05:10 AM


Author Topic: ITS First Mars Flight  (Read 2086 times)

Offline david1971

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ITS First Mars Flight
« on: 09/30/2016 06:10 AM »
A poll to see what people are thinking around the timeline. 

First flight does not need to be crewed, nor does it need to land on Mars, it simply needs to be something that resembles the recent PowerPoint, and attempts a TMI burn.

The windows were taken from http://clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm.

Offline rocx

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #1 on: 09/30/2016 07:16 AM »
I think this poll should have an extra option. Elon Musk himself announced the 2022 window, so it should be a separate option from 2024, however likely we think it is.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline david1971

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #2 on: 09/30/2016 02:57 PM »
I think this poll should have an extra option. Elon Musk himself announced the 2022 window, so it should be a separate option from 2024, however likely we think it is.

Added the 2022.  Only three had voted for 2024 or earlier prior to this option being available.

Offline sdsds

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Offline ZachS09

Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #4 on: 10/02/2016 06:31 AM »
So far, 22.5% vote for "Never".

Any ideas why the ITS will never make any of the above-mentioned windows?
"Liftoff of Falcon 9: the world's first reflight of an orbital-class rocket."

Offline hop

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #5 on: 10/02/2016 06:51 AM »
Any ideas why the ITS will never make any of the above-mentioned windows?
I voted 2031 or beyond, but "never" would probably be my second or third choice. Some possible scenarios:
1) Funding does not appear
2) Something gets built, but doesn't resemble the ITS presented by Musk. Anyone Remember Falcon 5? Or reusable F9 upper stages?

I'd rate 2022 a lot less likely than any of the above.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #6 on: 10/02/2016 07:15 AM »
I voted 2022 (probably rather foolishly), but there is a small possibility that the program can be kept on time, prototype raptor testing and LOX fuel tank pathfinder give some small hope that it will not slip for Musk's agressive timescales.

Offline savuporo

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #7 on: 10/02/2016 07:53 AM »
So far, 22.5% vote for "Never".

Any ideas why the ITS will never make any of the above-mentioned windows?
Because the plan will get changed. Components of ITS make sense, but the overall approach will get substantially modified.

SpaceX has a ton to learn in deep space, and once they start that, the lessons will change the approach
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #8 on: 10/02/2016 06:41 PM »
I voted 2024 because I do not think that they will have an uneventful development of the ITS. There is always some little hiccup causing a slip. The 2022 date is very aggressive and assumes smooth sailing through the development. Plus they need the Red Dragon data from a successful EDL at Mars to finish the software and possible even some hardware designs prior to trying an unmanned ITS landing on Mars. Getting RD off on 2018 may be too aggressive plus it may take 2 tries to get the data the need meaning the data would not exist until 2020 or even 2022.

There are many items that are parallel in the development and others that are stacked up serial that depends on the previous step.

Offline Bubbinski

Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #9 on: 10/03/2016 12:59 AM »
I think the ITS will take flight in some form, and eventually SpaceX, other companies, NASA, and other countries will find themselves sending astronauts and eventually "stayover personnel" for Mars bases, then colonies in due course. I think the next 50 years will be very exciting to follow for space travel. However I went conservative and voted 2029 due to past history of SpaceX schedules and due to the magnitude of the task, after all Gene Cernan, Ron Evans, and Harrison Schmitt were the last people to leave earth orbit, almost 45 years ago, and they only got to the Moon.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #10 on: 10/03/2016 04:16 AM »
So far, 22.5% vote for "Never".

Any ideas why the ITS will never make any of the above-mentioned windows?
One idea - "Kaboom"

Offline high road

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Re: ITS First Mars Flight
« Reply #11 on: 10/05/2016 09:56 AM »
I voted 2029 as in 'late 2020ies'. Either if flies by then, or it never will because the preferable way to get to Mars has changed to the point of no longer resembling the current ITS design more than any other system.

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