Author Topic: New Glenn: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan  (Read 127920 times)

Online Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #40 on: 09/12/2016 03:44 PM »
I have tried to estimate the payload mass, and I get something like 60 tons for the two-stage version with some reasonable (I hope) guesstimates on things we do not know (structural mass, specific impulse of BE-4, etc.).

I attach the spreadsheet for support, comments welcome.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #41 on: 09/12/2016 03:51 PM »
I have tried to estimate the payload mass, and I get something like 60 tons for the two-stage version with some reasonable (I hope) guesstimates on things we do not know (structural mass, specific impulse of BE-4, etc.).

I attach the spreadsheet for support, comments welcome.
I doubt they would get 0.95 propellant ratios with the big tanks needed for this low-density propellant.  I estimated 0.90.  Also, they are using staged combustion engines, which weigh a bit more than gas generator engines for the same thrust.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 09/12/2016 03:53 PM by edkyle99 »

Online Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #42 on: 09/12/2016 03:58 PM »
I have tried to estimate the payload mass, and I get something like 60 tons for the two-stage version with some reasonable (I hope) guesstimates on things we do not know (structural mass, specific impulse of BE-4, etc.).

I attach the spreadsheet for support, comments welcome.
I doubt they would get 0.95 propellant ratios with the big tanks needed for this low-density propellant.  I estimated 0.90.  Also, they are using staged combustion engines, which weigh a bit more than gas generator engines for the same thrust.

 - Ed Kyle

I see! That would give 40 tons, alright.

But then, propellant ratios should grow with rocket diameter because loads and areas grow with the square of diameter but volume (fuel/oxidizer) grows with the third power of the diameter. I have to admit I am not an expert at all, it was just fun to play with the numbers.

Offline link2universe

Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #43 on: 09/12/2016 04:07 PM »
is there any rumor about a capsule for these new rockets? Like a bigger version of the one used now i imagine
Enjoy the ride

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #44 on: 09/12/2016 04:10 PM »
I have tried to estimate the payload mass, and I get something like 60 tons for the two-stage version with some reasonable (I hope) guesstimates on things we do not know (structural mass, specific impulse of BE-4, etc.).

I attach the spreadsheet for support, comments welcome.
I doubt they would get 0.95 propellant ratios with the big tanks needed for this low-density propellant.  I estimated 0.90.  Also, they are using staged combustion engines, which weigh a bit more than gas generator engines for the same thrust.

 - Ed Kyle

I see! That would give 40 tons, alright.

But then, propellant ratios should grow with rocket diameter because loads and areas grow with the square of diameter but volume (fuel/oxidizer) grows with the third power of the diameter. I have to admit I am not an expert at all, it was just fun to play with the numbers.
We're all guesstimating here, bracketing the target hopefully.  Blue will no doubt surprise us in the end.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Prober

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #45 on: 09/12/2016 04:14 PM »
New Armstrong is believed to be a BFR deep into the future. Not confirmed, but I'm "told" that the answer to the question is they are only naming rockets after astronauts.


your sources might be accurate, but the New Armstrong could be the single engine BE-4 launcher ULA hinted at.



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Offline envy887

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #46 on: 09/12/2016 04:22 PM »
New Armstrong is believed to be a BFR deep into the future. Not confirmed, but I'm "told" that the answer to the question is they are only naming rockets after astronauts.


your sources might be accurate, but the New Armstrong could be the single engine BE-4 launcher ULA hinted at.

Bezos said New Glenn is the smallest orbital launch vehicle they will build.

Offline HIP2BSQRE

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #47 on: 09/12/2016 04:27 PM »
How may the new rockets possibly affect ULA and SpaceX?  Are they going for the same customers?  What possible affect will this have for the A6?

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #48 on: 09/12/2016 04:29 PM »
When they say 'end of the decade' do they mean 2020, the actual end of the decade or 2019 for the math impaired folks like CNN?

Online Lars-J

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #49 on: 09/12/2016 04:32 PM »
I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.

With New Glenn, Vulcan, and Falcon Heavy, the US now has three LVs in development (some closer than others) that will all compete for the crown of heaviest lifting LV in the world.

Offline Toast

Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #50 on: 09/12/2016 04:32 PM »
How may the new rockets possibly affect ULA and SpaceX?  Are they going for the same customers?  What possible affect will this have for the A6?

It looks like they aren't targeting the same customers. We'll have to see the exact numbers on New Glenn, but it looks like the only launch systems it will directly compete against is the upper end of Falcon Heavy and Delta IV Heavy capabilities. It's capabilities may actually be more in line with SLS block I.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #51 on: 09/12/2016 04:38 PM »
I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.
If the two-engine rocket can lift the payload, it beats the seven-engine rocket on cost every time.  (Assuming the same engines, as in this case).

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 09/12/2016 04:40 PM by edkyle99 »

Offline Kosmos2001

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #52 on: 09/12/2016 04:39 PM »
Wow!  :o

Online Lars-J

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #53 on: 09/12/2016 04:41 PM »
I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.
If the two-engine rocket can lift the payload, it beats the seven-engine rocket on cost every time.  (Assuming the same engines, as in this case).

 - Ed Kyle

Yes, if you view if from an expendable point of view. But... New Glenn is clearly a reusable vehicle, so it will all depend on refurbishment costs.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2016 04:42 PM by Lars-J »

Online Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #54 on: 09/12/2016 04:43 PM »
With (partial) reusability, flights on a New Glenn might perhaps cost the same as on a expendable A6 or Vulcan. You just get much more mass to work with for the same price. That could tempt many satellite providers to come up with more massive designs (i.e., less mass constrained and thus cheaper to build, with more reserves). The "middle of the  market" might then simply move to higher masses, leaving Vulcan and A6 in the new smallsat equivalent branch...

I find it funny, btw, how Bezos first gives us the "you have to do things in small, incremental steps" speech, just before presenting a giant launcher that is close to an equivalent to the Falcon Heavy....

Online hkultala

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #55 on: 09/12/2016 04:44 PM »
I have tried to estimate the payload mass, and I get something like 60 tons for the two-stage version with some reasonable (I hope) guesstimates on things we do not know (structural mass, specific impulse of BE-4, etc.).

I attach the spreadsheet for support, comments welcome.
I doubt they would get 0.95 propellant ratios with the big tanks needed for this low-density propellant.  I estimated 0.90.  Also, they are using staged combustion engines, which weigh a bit more than gas generator engines for the same thrust.

 - Ed Kyle

Methane is not "low-density", it's MUCH denser than hydrogen and only slightly less dense than kerosine.

Something like 0.93 should not be a problem, and 0.9 is defieteely too low estimation.

And the mass overhead of SC engines should only be like few tonnes maximum, so the effect of that is like 0.002..0.003 when the stage weights about 1000 tonnes.

Also the powerful BE-4U as upper stage engine means that the two-stage design is LEO-optimized and does not suffer the same gravity losses as ULAs launchers suffer for LEO laucnhes(until ACES arrives).

Online redliox

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #56 on: 09/12/2016 04:44 PM »
I'm impressed so far.  One advantage I see for New Glen is simplicity by avoiding the side boosters the shuttle, SLS, and even FH will employ.  It will be a challenge recovering something roughly the size of the SLS core, but considering the success of the New Shepherd and that of rival SpaceX's Falcon 9, it might be possible.  Hopefully the development of the BE-4 engine will go smoothly, as that is the only other impediment I could see.

Considering the name, New Armstrong, for the (presumed) capsule, I'm going to guess it might be optimized for Lunar excursions to the Red Dragon's Martian ones.

I wonder how ULA feels about this? This seems like a vehicle that could cover virtually all Vulcan payloads.
If the two-engine rocket can lift the payload, it beats the seven-engine rocket on cost every time.

 - Ed Kyle

With the same engines being used by both NG and Vulcan, I'd say there might be a chance of synergy instead of pure competition.  ULA and Blue Origin might agree to avoid each other's target vendors and exchange parts.  ULA might focus chiefly on LEO and smaller payloads in general while Blue Origins targets GEO and BEO and larger payloads.  Of course this is just conjecture.
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Offline jak Kennedy

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #57 on: 09/12/2016 04:45 PM »
I hope NASA starts designing space telescopes that can be launched by these new rockets.

This announcement was a nice surprise and soon the BFR announcement? The 2020's should be exciting.

Offline GWH

Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #58 on: 09/12/2016 04:50 PM »
With the same engines being used by both NG and Vulcan, I'd say there might be a chance of synergy instead of pure competition.  ULA and Blue Origin might agree to avoid each other's target vendors and exchange parts.  ULA might focus chiefly on LEO and smaller payloads in general while Blue Origins targets GEO and BEO and larger payloads.  Of course this is just conjecture.

I bet the ULA/Blue Origin synergy will go deeper than that.

New Glenn 3rd stage being hydrolox means there will be an umbilical in place to fuel a tanker as payload on top of second stage.

ULA will buy prop off Blue Origin, refuel ACES when required and retain their role as a dedicated launch provider.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2016 04:50 PM by GWH »

Offline MattMason

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Re: Blue Origin Announcement of Orbital Rocket Plan
« Reply #59 on: 09/12/2016 04:50 PM »
The "billionaire slapfight" just turned officially into a boxing match.

But then, there's Elon's announcement of his Mars initiative this month as well--if the AMOS investigation does not derail it.

Either way, I want tickets.
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