Poll

When will SpaceX launch their first Red Dragon mission to Mars?

2018 window
87 (49.7%)
2020 window
69 (39.4%)
2022 window
11 (6.3%)
2024 window
3 (1.7%)
Never
5 (2.9%)

Total Members Voted: 175

Voting closed: 07/23/2016 11:49 PM


Author Topic: POLL: When will the first Red Dragon mission be launched to Mars?  (Read 12439 times)

Offline jongoff

  • Recovering Rocket Plumber/Space Entrepreneur
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6007
  • Lafayette/Broomfield, CO
  • Liked: 1967
  • Likes Given: 679
And the answer is apparently not 2018...

Jon

Offline Dalhousie

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2050
  • Liked: 249
  • Likes Given: 300
And the answer is apparently not 2018...

Jon

Once again SpaceX predictions - and the expectations of their supporters - are shown to be unrealistic
"There is nobody who is a bigger fan of sending robots to Mars than me... But I believe firmly that the best, the most comprehensive, the most successful exploration will be done by humans" Steve Squyres

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 664
  • Europe
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 40
Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6247
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1547
  • Likes Given: 1328
Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.

I am not sure how to interpret what she said. It can be interpreted as they are unlikely to launch BFS in 2020, in which case they would launch RedDragon. I am still confident they will send something to Mars in 2020. Just no longer sure that something will be RedDragon.

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 664
  • Europe
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 40
Given Gwynne Shotwell's interview in which she said SpaceX isn't committed to launching Red Dragon before BFS and that 2020 is 'aggressive', 2020 is looking less likely too.

I am not sure how to interpret what she said. It can be interpreted as they are unlikely to launch BFS in 2020, in which case they would launch RedDragon. I am still confident they will send something to Mars in 2020. Just no longer sure that something will be RedDragon.

Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.

edit: yes, I'm totally ignoring the other elephants in the previous post.
edit2: inserted quote I responded to for clarity.
« Last Edit: 06/29/2017 12:32 PM by high road »

Offline Paul451

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1207
  • Australia
  • Liked: 590
  • Likes Given: 510
Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window?

Their "aggressive" schedule is to have ITS available for Mars test flights by NET 2023. However, realistically, just as Red Dragon slipped out to 2020 at the earliest, ITS will slip to the late 2020s. That leaves plenty of time to launch several fairly cheap Red Dragons to survey sites for ITS landings.



First image is Musk's timeline. Second is my "correction", simply assuming that Musk-years are Mars-years. [Because; a) it's funny, and b) it fits surprisingly well.]
« Last Edit: 06/27/2017 09:12 AM by Paul451 »

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 664
  • Europe
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 40
Working on two completely different systems in the same time, while both are fantastic in their own right and IMO are quite complementary even when available at the same time, is not a good way of speeding up a first launch. I'm hoping that they don't jump to ITS without doing Red Dragon first, or something that can deploy payloads more easily. NASA and ESA would like to use that, I think.

It wouldn't be the first time Red Dragon gets reinvented.

Offline guckyfan

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6247
  • Germany
  • Liked: 1547
  • Likes Given: 1328
Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.

It depends. The intent seemed to be to survey a number of sites. Doing that with the expensive BFS and losing at least those which landed on a not downselected site is expensive. Doing initial surveys with a cheaper vehicle makes sense. If they now send much smaller, hopefully much cheaper landers than a full BFS on several sites it may be a good choice, given that they can deploy heavier digging equipment and larger solar arrays for evaluating water resources.

I think it was never an option to send a RedDragon that can not deploy a rover, if not the full size of Curiosity. There were plenty of statements by Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell that of course they can.

Online envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2326
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 676
Is there any reason to invest in developing Red Dragon if they already have BFS either in 2020 or the next launch window? Especially if we're still talking about the red dragon that can't deploy rovers.

It depends. The intent seemed to be to survey a number of sites. Doing that with the expensive BFS and losing at least those which landed on a not downselected site is expensive. Doing initial surveys with a cheaper vehicle makes sense. If they now send much smaller, hopefully much cheaper landers than a full BFS on several sites it may be a good choice, given that they can deploy heavier digging equipment and larger solar arrays for evaluating water resources.

I think it was never an option to send a RedDragon that can not deploy a rover, if not the full size of Curiosity. There were plenty of statements by Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell that of course they can.

That's where a mini-BFS would be useful. Bigger payloads than Dragon, but still reasonably inexpensive.

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3159
  • Liked: 351
  • Likes Given: 682
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/887737030704115712
Quote
Musk: no longer believe that Dragon propulsive approach is the best way to land on Mars. Not the best way to apply resources now. #ISSRDC
Oh.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1467
  • Very Ancient Caveman
  • Ontario, Canada
  • Liked: 621
  • Likes Given: 4365
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/887737030704115712
Quote
Musk: no longer believe that Dragon propulsive approach is the best way to land on Mars. Not the best way to apply resources now. #ISSRDC
Oh.
Well it looks like NEVER won this poll... something I did not foresee...  :o
"Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou
 Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3654
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 2433
  • Likes Given: 797
Indeed. The first thing SpaceX land on Mars is going to be quite a bit bigger than Dragon!

Online rockets4life97

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 338
  • Liked: 164
  • Likes Given: 87
Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8160
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 4913
  • Likes Given: 3334
Looks like the 5 members who voted "never" win this one. Sadly.

Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?

Give it a few days but yeah...

What does "SpaceX" mean in this context...   (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later. :)
« Last Edit: 07/19/2017 07:50 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3159
  • Liked: 351
  • Likes Given: 682
What does "SpaceX" mean in this context...   (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later. :)
My 2 cents would be a lander developed by SpaceX or SpaceX as the lead contractor, regardless of who paid for it.

SpaceX launching hardware built by someone else (e.g. the role of Atlas in InSight or 2020) would just be a regular launch service. SpaceX developing landing hardware would be relevant to the whole Mars project, regardless of whether they convinced someone else to pay for it.

Offline high road

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 664
  • Europe
  • Liked: 174
  • Likes Given: 40
Looks like the 5 members who voted "never" win this one. Sadly.

Time for an updated poll: When will SpaceX launch a mission to land on Mars?

Give it a few days but yeah...

What does "SpaceX" mean in this context...   (in terms of who paid for what)? So as to avoid wrangling later. :)

That would be a nice subcategory for such a poll as well: who will pay for (early) SpaceX transport services to Mars? Will NASA be allowed to develop payloads for it rather than for SLS? Will ESA/Roscosmos be willing/allowed to purchase ITS to actually get a payload to the surface intact? Will ITS bring prices down enough so scientists can send their own experiments? Hell, throw in space tourism and Mars One and whatnot for good measure.

Offline savuporo

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5049
  • Liked: 908
  • Likes Given: 324
Check in on wisdom of the crowds.

I believe i voted 'never'
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline tesla

  • Member
  • Posts: 99
  • Germany
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 82
Check in on wisdom of the crowds.

I believe i voted 'never'

Your comment, pointing out reality, is offensive to us snowflakes. please delete it.