Poll

When will an F9 first stage be re-used on an orbital mission for a paying customer & mission is a success?

June 2016
2 (1.4%)
July 2016
15 (10.5%)
August 2016
26 (18.2%)
September 2016
26 (18.2%)
October 2016
20 (14%)
November 2016
11 (7.7%)
December 2016
6 (4.2%)
Q1 2017
25 (17.5%)
Q2 2017
5 (3.5%)
Q3 2017
5 (3.5%)
Q4 2017
1 (0.7%)
H1 2018
0 (0%)
H2 2018
0 (0%)
2019 or later
1 (0.7%)
Never!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 143

Voting closed: 05/14/2016 09:25 AM


Author Topic: POLL: When will first successful F9 customer orbital mission be with re-used S1?  (Read 11847 times)

Offline Kansan52

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For a progressive approach, before going to a paying customer, wouldn't it make sense to use one such stage for the Crew Dragon inflight abort test?

I was under the impression the F9 for the in-flight abort would be a custom core with only three engines. Is that still expected to be the case, or is there new information on this?

Haven't heard anything to change from the three engine core.

Offline Poole Amateur

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I voted Q2 2017. Pure fan boy that I am, I would rather they really study the returned stages to optimise reliability and concentrate on getting the manifest backlog sorted. A re-flight in 12 months will still be an impressive achievement, but a bunch of on time and flawless flights, with a load of returned cores will to my mind be even more impressive. Still a load of stuff to get excited about...Falcon Heavy, Dragonfly and Dragon 2...I can wait a little while for a successful re-flight :)

Offline llanitedave

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It's huge progress IMO that no one voted "Never"!
"I've just abducted an alien -- now what?"

Offline vapour_nudge

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It's huge progress IMO that no one voted "Never"!
Yes, it was so tempting to vote never just to prove you wrong but I'm not THAT heartless or snarky 😇
« Last Edit: 05/11/2016 10:55 PM by vapour_nudge »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Thank you all for joining in the poll. A good spread of opinions, although all believe SpaceX are going to be successful and the great majority think in the next 12 months. Can't wait!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Cross-posting as very relevant to this poll:

Tweet from Elon today stating that SpaceX still intends to refly F9-0023-S1 this summer:

Quote
Elon Musk @elonmusk
3:03 PM - 14 May 2016

@r_SpaceX @reddit will do another AMA just before reflight of the rocket in a few months

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Update on SpaceX's plans for booster re-use:

Quote
SpaceX: We'll be meeting w/ insurance underwriters in coming weeks to walk them through our reusable-stage certification process.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737469017896542208

Quote
SpaceX: Reused stage to fly, likely on commercial mission, by end of year. We've been approached by couple of customers who want to be 1st.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/737447211009613824

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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If you voted June, July or August looks like you're out of luck:

First realistic date from Elon?

Quote
Fourth rocket arrives in the hangar. Aiming for first reflight in Sept/Oct.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480

Offline MattMason

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If you voted June, July or August looks like you're out of luck:

First realistic date from Elon?

Quote
Fourth rocket arrives in the hangar. Aiming for first reflight in Sept/Oct.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/740296489532948480

That matches up not only with the possibility of use for the SES-10 commercial sat launch, penned in for September, but possibly launching from LC-39A.
"Why is the logo on the side of a rocket so important?"
"So you can find the pieces." -Jim, the Steely Eyed

Offline the_other_Doug

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Well, I voted back when the poll was first posted, and I voted for October of this year.  For what specific reason, I don't recall.  But whatever it was, I bet I'm close...
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Cross posting, looking good for this year:

Not sure where to post this:

Quote
Shotwell: “a lot of interest” from customers on flying on reused Falcon 9. May fly two of them this year. #smallsat

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/763060451680722944

Offline Kaputnik

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Waiting for joy and raptor

Online CraigLieb

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Colonize Mars!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Now tentatively January, presumably provided F9 RTF is by end of this year:

Quote
SES: Based on SpaceX’s return-to-flight plans, we expect SES-10 to launch on reused Falcon 9 in January. Payload for next Falcon 9 still TBD

https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/791914581065019392

Edit: report of same SES remarks by Peter B. de Selding

Quote
SES(6): CFO says SES-10 tentatively set for January launch on SpaceX Falcon 9. (This mission will inaugurate reuse of Falcon 9 1st stage.)

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/791915233677758465

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Now the RTF is successfully achieved :D time to return thoughts to when first booster re-use might be:

Quote
Peter B. de Selding ‏@pbdes  2h2 hours ago
@SES_Satellites still intends SES-10 (5,300kg/GTO) as 1st @SpaceX mission using previously flown Falcon 9 1st stage. Planned Q1 launch.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/820971443605434368

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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SES-10 is still down for Mar 27th but as Chris says a big ask.

So those of you how picked Q1 2017 may yet be right; otherwise I suspect Q2 might sneak it.

I'm discounting SES-10 launch failing. SpaceX are not going to launch unless they are very confident.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Well congratulations to SpaceX, SES and all those of you who picked Q1 2017. You had a whole day spare!

I don't think we'll have to wait too long before another booster is successfully re-used  :D

Offline Kaputnik

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I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?
Waiting for joy and raptor

Offline Comga

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I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?

My opinion, and it is only that, is that it's less about who was right but what the consensus was.
The peak of the distribution was 3-4 months out.
The reality was about 10 months, 2 or 3 times the consensus.
That's just what happens with a failure. 
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Yes without the failure I think SES-10 would have been October or November. That's a bit later than the distribution peak, which I think means insufficient allowance was made for Elon time dilation.

I'd forgotten about this poll... and I guessed right! Where do I collect my prize?

The prize for being correct is, as usual, bragging rights - which I see you've already claimed  :D

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