Author Topic: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers  (Read 24820 times)

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #60 on: 04/05/2016 10:14 AM »
Quote
His articles, if he had written them at all, would have been completely different if they hadn't reached out to him.

Possible, but that was not the point. Tim was well aware of Elon Musk and SpaceX, as about any tech/space nerd with access to the internet must have been at the time.

I read Ashley's book when it came out, I didn't feel it was a "press release for Elon". He and Elon are on less-than-stellar terms, too. But we digress. This thread should be about BO.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #61 on: 04/07/2016 04:31 PM »
Can this thread at least be about Bezos' ego? In spite of all the talk about BO being less hype-y, I definitely think SpaceX has toned down the hype/progress ratio since the Falcon 9 pathfinder vehicle was brought vertical in January 2009. And Blue Origin has started talking about millions of people in space. That's more than SpaceX! :D

I like it. The more Bezos feels the need to defend his ego, the more proportion of his wealth and time he will spend on space. This is very good!
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Offline MattMason

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #62 on: 04/07/2016 07:00 PM »
Can this thread at least be about Bezos' ego? In spite of all the talk about BO being less hype-y, I definitely think SpaceX has toned down the hype/progress ratio since the Falcon 9 pathfinder vehicle was brought vertical in January 2009. And Blue Origin has started talking about millions of people in space. That's more than SpaceX! :D

I like it. The more Bezos feels the need to defend his ego, the more proportion of his wealth and time he will spend on space. This is very good!

I see Bezo's increased public communications as simply a salesman's confidence that what he has to sell is safe enough to discuss--and thus, market.

Hindsight seems to indicate that (1) Blue Origin did not want to fall into the Virgin Galactic trap of hype before results/proven safety and (2) Blue Origin wanted to have something substantial to discuss.

Bezos certainly has something to discuss now. And he's got my attention.
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Offline kevinof

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #63 on: 04/07/2016 07:17 PM »
Agree with you on that. I think they/he were waiting until they had something to shout about.  While I'm not a fan of Bezos, I am a fan of BO and like what they are doing. Will be interesting to see where they take us.


Can this thread at least be about Bezos' ego? In spite of all the talk about BO being less hype-y, I definitely think SpaceX has toned down the hype/progress ratio since the Falcon 9 pathfinder vehicle was brought vertical in January 2009. And Blue Origin has started talking about millions of people in space. That's more than SpaceX! :D

I like it. The more Bezos feels the need to defend his ego, the more proportion of his wealth and time he will spend on space. This is very good!

I see Bezo's increased public communications as simply a salesman's confidence that what he has to sell is safe enough to discuss--and thus, market.

Hindsight seems to indicate that (1) Blue Origin did not want to fall into the Virgin Galactic trap of hype before results/proven safety and (2) Blue Origin wanted to have something substantial to discuss.

Bezos certainly has something to discuss now. And he's got my attention.

Offline J-V

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #64 on: 04/29/2016 01:27 PM »
Here's the latest info letter from Blue Origin

In the BE-4 preburner, a very small portion of the engine’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel mixes and burns with all of the engine’s liquid oxygen to produce hot gaseous oxygen, which is used to drive the turbine and spin the turbopumps. Oxygen and LNG burn stoichiometrically above 6,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and temperatures of about 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit or more are needed to reliably ignite and sustain the reaction. No practical turbine materials would survive at that temperature, especially in a reusable application. To resolve this, the BE-4 preburner mixes unburned oxygen into the burned gas stream to dilute the combustion gases and reduce the overall temperature to about 700 degrees Fahrenheit. If this mixing process isn’t meticulously designed, hot spots can persist in the stream and limit turbine life.

To design the preburner to provide uniform temperature, we use 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to model the LNG and liquid oxygen combustion process. CFD predicts fluid behavior by solving the Navier-Stokes equations to describe how the velocity, pressure, temperature, and density of a moving fluid relate. CFD of reacting flows, especially those that also involve a phase change, is much, much harder because it must also solve chemistry along with state equations. Combusting CFD has only become practical with recent advances in chemical physics models and computing power.

[Image originally here]
Combusting CFD modeling of the BE-4 preburner shows temperature distribution of hot gaseous oxygen entering the turbine.

To date, we’ve completed several million core hours of CFD modeling of BE-4 combustion processes. Modeling of the preburner shows good mixing and temperature uniformity upstream of the turbine. The combustion and temperature data we’ve gathered in our subscale testing correlate with our CFD predictions and show that our preburner sizing and injector element design meet design requirements. The ability to do combusting CFD simulations doesn’t eliminate the need for rigorous testing, but it will significantly shorten the test-fail-fix loop on the test stand. We’ll keep you updated.

Gradatim Ferociter!

Jeff Bezos

Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #65 on: 04/29/2016 01:51 PM »
I got this (because of course I subscribed to the mailing list :) ) and my jaw dropped... it's bragging but it's also very rich in detail. Pretty awesome.  Presumably they've rigged up Amazon elastic computing services to do this CFD for them.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline WBY1984

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #66 on: 04/29/2016 01:53 PM »
Things are going to get very interesting indeed when they complete the BE-4. Their orbital launcher could make a big dent in the Falcon rockets market share, which makes me wonder: SpaceX talks a lot about how they find ways to make their vehicles cheaper; in-house manufacturing, off-the-shelf/non traditional sourcing of components, rapid prototyping. They also pay their staff a bit less and work longer hours than other organisations - that has to help with costs too.

Is there evidence of similar behaviour at Blue, or some other strategy that would make them competitive?

Online Rebel44

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #67 on: 04/29/2016 03:29 PM »
Things are going to get very interesting indeed when they complete the BE-4. Their orbital launcher could make a big dent in the Falcon rockets market share, which makes me wonder: SpaceX talks a lot about how they find ways to make their vehicles cheaper; in-house manufacturing, off-the-shelf/non traditional sourcing of components, rapid prototyping. They also pay their staff a bit less and work longer hours than other organisations - that has to help with costs too.

Is there evidence of similar behaviour at Blue, or some other strategy that would make them competitive?

No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.

Offline Kryten

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #68 on: 04/29/2016 04:27 PM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.

Offline GalacticIntruder

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #69 on: 04/29/2016 04:30 PM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.

True, But ULA would love to get into the Commercial market against SpaceX and AS, with thier ULA Vulcan. ULA cannot survive only on US Gov missions.
Watch out for those pesky corners, they have teeth.

Offline starsilk

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #70 on: 04/29/2016 04:55 PM »
I got this (because of course I subscribed to the mailing list :) ) and my jaw dropped... it's bragging but it's also very rich in detail. Pretty awesome.  Presumably they've rigged up Amazon elastic computing services to do this CFD for them.

SpaceX are doing this with arrays of GPUs and some smart software that was dynamically modifying the scale of the simulation depending on smoothness... makes sense the Blue would do it the other way, throwing huge amounts of compute power at the problem given Amazon's vast cloud of servers are at their disposal.

Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #71 on: 04/29/2016 05:03 PM »
I got this (because of course I subscribed to the mailing list :) ) and my jaw dropped... it's bragging but it's also very rich in detail. Pretty awesome.  Presumably they've rigged up Amazon elastic computing services to do this CFD for them.

SpaceX are doing this with arrays of GPUs and some smart software that was dynamically modifying the scale of the simulation depending on smoothness... makes sense the Blue would do it the other way, throwing huge amounts of compute power at the problem given Amazon's vast cloud of servers are at their disposal.
You could still dynamically modify the scale, you just need smart software that dispatches work as it slices up what work there is to do (informed by prior results)  I would be very surprised if Blue WASN'T using Amazon assets.  The IBM software that I support can run there, or on a Hadoop fabric, or on dedicated hardware, as you like...
« Last Edit: 04/29/2016 05:46 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #72 on: 04/29/2016 05:40 PM »
It is simulation SW like this and 3D printing that is enabling all the new space companies to developed their own engines.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #73 on: 04/30/2016 03:50 AM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.
...because the initial Blue Origin orbital launch vehicle will be more Delta II sized. Falcon 9 is much closer to Atlas V size, so Blue will not be competing against SpaceX's bread and butter (GTO) unless they also compete against ULA (also in GTO).
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Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #74 on: 04/30/2016 05:23 PM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.
...because the initial Blue Origin orbital launch vehicle will be more Delta II sized. Falcon 9 is much closer to Atlas V size, so Blue will not be competing against SpaceX's bread and butter (GTO) unless they also compete against ULA (also in GTO).
Who said Blue LV will be Delta 2 size?.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #75 on: 04/30/2016 06:09 PM »
We think it will be about the size of Delta II.
One BE-4 550k lbf (2400kN) LOxLNG 170mT first stage,
BE-3U 110k lbf (490kN) 25mT LOxLH2 upper-stage and 5mT (11k lb) payload.
GLOW ~200mT (450k lb), initial T/W 1.2

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #76 on: 04/30/2016 08:11 PM »
We think it will be about the size of Delta II.
One BE-4 550k lbf (2400kN) LOxLNG 170mT first stage,
BE-3U 110k lbf (490kN) 25mT LOxLH2 upper-stage and 5mT (11k lb) payload.
GLOW ~200mT (450k lb), initial T/W 1.2


For L2 members look under L2 Orion and Future spacraft, Atlas/BE4

The 1xBE4 LV came from a comment by Tory and he may have be talking about XS1.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2016 08:13 PM by TrevorMonty »

Offline Kryten

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #77 on: 04/30/2016 09:30 PM »
In any case, a relatively small vehicles makes sense simply from Blue's history. From Charon to Goddard to PM-2 to New Shephard, they've been taking a careful, incremental approach with their vehicle development; moving straight to a large LV now would be very much out of character.

Offline mfck

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #78 on: 04/30/2016 10:13 PM »
In any case, a relatively small vehicles makes sense simply from Blue's history. From Charon to Goddard to PM-2 to New Shephard, they've been taking a careful, incremental approach with their vehicle development; moving straight to a large LV now would be very much out of character.
The ferocity of the degrees is in the logarithmicity of the scale, if I may. Incremental does not have to mean linear.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #79 on: 04/30/2016 11:11 PM »
I think the first orbital vehicle from Blue Origin is certainly to be more Delta II class.

...but according to Bezos, that will be the smallest orbital vehicle they will make.

So while I most certainly expect the orbit BO vehicle to not be in Falcon 9 class, the next one most certainly will and would be competing with ULA as well. But that may take a while.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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