Author Topic: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers  (Read 21820 times)

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #40 on: 03/30/2016 01:36 AM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.
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Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #41 on: 03/30/2016 06:38 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #42 on: 03/30/2016 08:32 AM »
It's a bit like the European attitude to US winemaking. American wines win international awards more consistently, but are often sniffed at due to lacking some imagined European elan. What ultimately matters to some isn't the performance of the wine, but the associations the wine carries with it. The Napa valley just isn't as romantic to some as the image of old world romance vineyards, so they keep on drinking European wine.

Ultimately we need to depersonalise the companies and focus on performance - the "walk" as mentioned upthread - rather than a backlash to PR and advertisement. All PR is good PR, PR gets the average non-spaceflight fan emotionally invested, or at minimum, informed.

I'm sure most of us here consider the goals of Blue (SpaceX, VG and everyone else) to be objectively exciting, and the fact that they're all striving to reach those goals is inherently more important than if they ever attain them. After all, if you attain 7 figures living and working in space or 7 figures on Mars specifically, then you've already done all the impressive work. Onwards and upwards.

This is space. If we were thinking realistically, whatever that's meant to mean, we wouldn't even be going into space. There's nothing about space which isn't risky and self-demanding. It requires a vast amount of expertise, vision and money. These companies have that for now.

Besides, we gain nothing from saying that anyone's goals are unrealistic except immobility and a general lack of inspiration. "Hype" is a perfectly normal, healthy sensation that permits people to have fun. I wouldn't be a space fan without hype.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #43 on: 03/30/2016 03:02 PM »
Being not American nor European, I can attest that American wines have a very bad quality/price equation. Winning international awards in wine means nothing. And I've tested Argentine prize winning wines and are nothing compared to the great French wines.
Wines, art and food is extremely difficult to reduce to numbers. It has a lot of qualities that you can't really put a finger on but are there none the less.
Space launch services, on the other hand, is probably one of the most engineered industries. The real issue is that the service, while you can put it into numbers, is a multidimensional vector with a huge number of coordinates. Given the very limited number of offerings, it is extremely difficult to get an offer that is better than the other in all qualities. That's why actual clients do a significant effort on trading options and requirements.
Thus, hype only works for us common fans and has close to zero impact for Blue.

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #44 on: 04/01/2016 07:46 PM »
And they are off again tomorrow.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/715984864323842049

Same vehicle third time.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2016 07:46 PM by Star One »

Offline Kryten

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #45 on: 04/01/2016 07:50 PM »
 Collated tweets from Bezos regarding launch attempt tomorrow;
Quote
Working to fly again tomorrow. Same vehicle. Third time.

Pushing the envelope. Restarting BE-3 fast @ high thrust, just 3600 ft from ground. Impact in 6 sec if engine doesn’t restart & ramp fast.

Also, a new more efficient RCS algorithm on the Crew Capsule. Big performance win if it works.

We’ll have drone cameras in the air and hopefully will get good aerial footage to share.
I believe this is the first time Blue have formally announced one of these tests in advance.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2016 07:51 PM by Kryten »

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #46 on: 04/01/2016 08:31 PM »
Collated tweets from Bezos regarding launch attempt tomorrow;
Quote
Working to fly again tomorrow. Same vehicle. Third time.

Pushing the envelope. Restarting BE-3 fast @ high thrust, just 3600 ft from ground. Impact in 6 sec if engine doesn’t restart & ramp fast.

Also, a new more efficient RCS algorithm on the Crew Capsule. Big performance win if it works.

We’ll have drone cameras in the air and hopefully will get good aerial footage to share.
I believe this is the first time Blue have formally announced one of these tests in advance.

I almost fell off my chairs when I saw all those tweets from him.

Offline bunker9603

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #47 on: 04/03/2016 08:52 PM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.


I think the reason why Bezos is "Less in your face" than Musk is because after 15 years BO still has not launched anything into orbit. It is just now after making two suborbital launches that he is starting to be more open to what his future plans are.


Spx has billions of dollars worth of contracts and has made multiple deliveries to the ISS so if I had to choose between Spx Mars goals or BO's goals of millions of people living and working in space, I choose Spx based on what has been achieved so far.
« Last Edit: 04/03/2016 08:59 PM by bunker9603 »

Online su27k

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #48 on: 04/04/2016 02:30 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.


I think the reason why Bezos is "Less in your face" than Musk is because after 15 years BO still has not launched anything into orbit. It is just now after making two suborbital launches that he is starting to be more open to what his future plans are.

To be fair, before SpaceX's first attempted (and failed) orbital launch, they were already pretty eager to show off their stuff, remember Musk put a Falcon 1 (probably closer to mockup given later development) on the street of Washington DC just a year after the company is founded.

But I think this is perfectly understandable given their funding situation, Musk only has $100M before SpaceX went belly up, so they had to act fast and attract customers/funding, Blue can afford to be secretive only because Bezos' unlimited pocket.

(A bit off topic, but I find it ironic that SpaceX has been increasingly secretive lately even though some people still think they run a hype machine... When is the last time they officially unveiled something in development? All the new development are veiled in secrecy, with the exception of booster landing)

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #49 on: 04/04/2016 02:49 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.

This quote from Bezos about "hype" is telling:

Quote
“I’ve always said space is really easy to overhype,” said company founder Jeff Bezos, who participated in the tour. “I’ve always said the same thing, which is we’ll talk about Blue when we have something to talk about.”

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2949/1

In this age of relentless PR, it's rather refreshing to see less talk before the action.

Of course, SpaceX has been fighting a different battle than Blue, ie trying to break into the Gov't launch market, so they've been forced to fight fire with fire and engage in the PR war with ULA, so it would be rather unfair to compare SpaceX and Blue's vastly different PR philosophies.
« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 02:57 AM by Kabloona »

Offline JamesH65

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #50 on: 04/04/2016 03:20 PM »
Can someone explain to me this 'hype machine' that people seem to think SpaceX are using? Because as I see it, SpaceX themselves don;t do a lot of hype - that tends to come from third parties. You get occasional tweets from SpaceX and Musk, but nothing I would regards as a 'hype machine'.

If anything, I'd like to see more stuff being announced.

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #51 on: 04/04/2016 05:02 PM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.

Does that mean that Space is now "the next big thing", just as the Internet was once the "next big thing"?
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?

I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.




Offline DanielW

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #52 on: 04/04/2016 05:29 PM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.

Does that mean that Space is now "the next big thing", just as the Internet was once the "next big thing"?
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?

I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.

Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires or if one succeeds we will probably see our first trillionaire. According to some creative accounting anyway. Space economies will generate enormous value, but mostly for the space economy. Not much value that can be spent back at earth. But in terms of "number of salaries" they could pay, I would bet on some of these companies eventually becoming an order of magnitude larger than current earthly companies.

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #53 on: 04/04/2016 05:38 PM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.

Does that mean that Space is now "the next big thing", just as the Internet was once the "next big thing"?

No. At the moment it is a "bragging rights" fad among "accomplished billionaires", at the moment who otherwise have gotten bored with "hookers and blow".

But who knows? If one of them really gets popular off it, the others might get ... relentless.

Quote
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?
Neither. Become a successful entrepreneur (somehow) first. Then learn who to trust in aerospace circles.

Quote
I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.
Unlikely.

More likely is that we might have a 20 year interval where aerospace gets overinvested/explored, and during that time, scientists/engineers try things to grow the sector of what to use space for, NGO's can "piggyback" on govt developed HSF/SC/propulsion to experiment with loss-only ventures that neither business nor govt would ever be able to try.

After all of this, you'll be left with a "different" situation then we have ever had, with different, proven economics. Then business/govt/NGO's actually start doing the things that might result in the next Apple or Google or Boeing ... suggest you think about the next Applied Materials for that list of yours ;)

Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires ...
Trillions will be lost. So what. That's what "big" money is for ...

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #54 on: 04/04/2016 11:02 PM »
Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires or if one succeeds we will probably see our first trillionaire. According to some creative accounting anyway. Space economies will generate enormous value, but mostly for the space economy. Not much value that can be spent back at earth. But in terms of "number of salaries" they could pay, I would bet on some of these companies eventually becoming an order of magnitude larger than current earthly companies.

Well, I've heard so many times that whatever resource exploitation is done in space will only be economical for usage out there, and not for usage back here on Earth. So it almost reminds me of online games and their "virtual money" which can be earned and spent inside the virtual world of the game. Maybe this analog can then provide the basis for simulation of what a space economy would be like in regards to its separateness and its weak interaction with our real-world Earthly economy. Maybe one day instead of inexpensively hiring a 3rd-world geek to farm gold for you in some virtual online game, they'll instead be hired to remotely tend to some off-world robot doing some off-world resource harvesting, etc in the service of the space economy.

No. At the moment it is a "bragging rights" fad among "accomplished billionaires", at the moment who otherwise have gotten bored with "hookers and blow".

But who knows? If one of them really gets popular off it, the others might get ... relentless.

Well, space is now considered the most challenging, cool and worthwhile frontier available. Maybe that's a consequence of the Trekkie generation.

http://www.geekwire.com/2016/payscale-ratings-rank-spacex-tesla-low-salary-high-meaningfulness/


Quote
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?
Neither. Become a successful entrepreneur (somehow) first. Then learn who to trust in aerospace circles.[/quote]

Hmm, so entrepreneurialism is the best way to get into aerospace?
I would have thought cutting your teeth at an existing employer is the best way to learn the ropes before striking out on your own.

Quote
Quote
I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.
Unlikely.

More likely is that we might have a 20 year interval where aerospace gets overinvested/explored, and during that time, scientists/engineers try things to grow the sector of what to use space for, NGO's can "piggyback" on govt developed HSF/SC/propulsion to experiment with loss-only ventures that neither business nor govt would ever be able to try.

After all of this, you'll be left with a "different" situation then we have ever had, with different, proven economics. Then business/govt/NGO's actually start doing the things that might result in the next Apple or Google or Boeing ... suggest you think about the next Applied Materials for that list of yours ;)


But it seems to me that space launch capabilities are going to be ramping up so quickly over the next 10 years, that there will be an explosion of space applications that will be made possible by the increase in transport capabilities relative to price and demand.

Fine, since the launch providers are the key bottleneck, they will "own" space for the near/medium-term, but once launch providers are plentiful enough - there are plenty of airlines, even if there are only a few OEM manufacturers of airliners - then as access to space becomes assured, the way will be cleared for large companies to make a living off doing actual things in space.

Quote
Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires ...
Trillions will be lost. So what. That's what "big" money is for ...

Trilliions will be expended, but even if companies go belly-up it won't all be lost, because the resultant learning will likely be applicable to further enterprises in space.
« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 11:03 PM by sanman »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #55 on: 04/04/2016 11:19 PM »
Can someone explain to me this 'hype machine' that people seem to think SpaceX are using? Because as I see it, SpaceX themselves don;t do a lot of hype - that tends to come from third parties. You get occasional tweets from SpaceX and Musk, but nothing I would regards as a 'hype machine'.

You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

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Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #56 on: 04/05/2016 12:07 AM »

Quote
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?
Neither. Become a successful entrepreneur (somehow) first. Then learn who to trust in aerospace circles.

Hmm, so entrepreneurialism is the best way to get into aerospace?
I would have thought cutting your teeth at an existing employer is the best way to learn the ropes before striking out on your own.
You weren't specific. I took what you said, in the context of this thread, to mean to be as effective as Bezos himself here.

In other words, the idea is that the perspective of being entrepreneurial matters most to doing like Bezos/Musk.

If being with an employer makes you that, fine.

Quote
Quote
Quote
I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.
Unlikely.

More likely is that we might have a 20 year interval where aerospace gets overinvested/explored, and during that time, scientists/engineers try things to grow the sector of what to use space for, NGO's can "piggyback" on govt developed HSF/SC/propulsion to experiment with loss-only ventures that neither business nor govt would ever be able to try.

After all of this, you'll be left with a "different" situation then we have ever had, with different, proven economics. Then business/govt/NGO's actually start doing the things that might result in the next Apple or Google or Boeing ... suggest you think about the next Applied Materials for that list of yours ;)

But it seems to me that space launch capabilities are going to be ramping up so quickly over the next 10 years, that there will be an explosion of space applications that will be made possible by the increase in transport capabilities relative to price and demand.

Presuming your "explosion" is somewhat naive. That way never happens. Nor does launch ramping up matter, because it can ramp right down again. Please don't look at those things.

Launch is a tiny part of the business. Spacecraft/missions are much bigger business, and just as in need of reinvention as launch is.  My comments are about the risk takers that do missions that never would have been done before, that succeed. You make take this for granted, but you really shouldn't, because that is really where all the action will be.

Quote
Fine, since the launch providers are the key bottleneck, they will "own" space for the near/medium-term, but once launch providers are plentiful enough - there are plenty of airlines, even if there are only a few OEM manufacturers of airliners - then as access to space becomes assured, the way will be cleared for large companies to make a living off doing actual things in space.
They are one bottleneck. There are others. Including (business) structural ones.

So look at it this way - industry changes means that the clever guys can moot things they couldn't before, they convince business/govt/NGOs to speculatively try them, some succeed, that fills the "launch deficit" growing the market, which feeds back into industry change, and the cycle starts again.

Never presume "if they build it" that "it will grow/work/happen".

Offline JamesH65

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #57 on: 04/05/2016 08:56 AM »
Can someone explain to me this 'hype machine' that people seem to think SpaceX are using? Because as I see it, SpaceX themselves don;t do a lot of hype - that tends to come from third parties. You get occasional tweets from SpaceX and Musk, but nothing I would regards as a 'hype machine'.

You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

One example does not imply 'hype machine'. I'm sure there are other examples, but nothing to merit the hype phrase.

The Raspberry Pi foundation have also been accused of 'hype'. And yet they are similar - they rely on word of mouth and enthusiasts to do their hyping for them, with no encouragement whatsoever. And it works! Enthusiasts and fans do a better job that any PR hyping, and lots cheaper!

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #58 on: 04/05/2016 09:10 AM »
You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

Not so, according to Tim: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #59 on: 04/05/2016 09:56 AM »
You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

Not so, according to Tim: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html

That's a candid description of astroturfing. His articles, if he had written them at all, would have been completely different if they hadn't reached out to him. Instead there's essentially zero new content and virtually no opinions beyond "OMG, wow." If you want another example of the process, read Ashlee Vance's book. It starts out as good investigative journalism, and then it turns into yet another press release for Elon.

That's the hype machine.

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