Author Topic: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers  (Read 20247 times)

Online mme

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Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« on: 03/09/2016 06:01 AM »
It looks like Blue Origin is going to start engaging the Media more.

Quote
Mr. Bezos said Blue Origin was quiet not necessarily to be secretive, but to avoid overpromising itself. “Space is really easy to overhype,” he said.

Lots of good tidbits in this article:

- They spent their first few years researching alternative approaches to chemical rockets.
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.
- Tests of the BE-4 coming later this year.
- More details coming later this year about their future orbital rocket.
Mark

Offline leaflion

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #1 on: 03/09/2016 06:08 AM »
"Mr. Bezos said there would be an opportunity to watch a test flight of New Shepard in Texas."

Finally.

Offline Borklund

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #2 on: 03/09/2016 06:59 AM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.

Online guckyfan

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #3 on: 03/09/2016 09:56 AM »
About Very Big Brother.

Quote
“It will not be a small vehicle, but it will be the smallest orbital vehicle we’ll build.”

Interesting quote.

Offline woods170

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #4 on: 03/09/2016 01:15 PM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

Offline thomson

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #5 on: 03/09/2016 01:36 PM »
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.
The old rule that was working well for SpaceShipTwo seems to be:

promised_launch_year = current_year + 2

Current year is the key here. It's 2018 in 2016, but it will be 2019 in 2017.

I'm looking forward to be proven wrong, though.

Offline A8-3

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #6 on: 03/09/2016 01:45 PM »
This article at Aviation Week is a bit more focused on the BE-4.

http://aviationweek.com/space/blue-origin-gears-be-4-engine-production
« Last Edit: 03/10/2016 09:22 AM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #7 on: 03/09/2016 02:11 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #8 on: 03/09/2016 03:24 PM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.
Bezo is not Branson or Musk. He is cautious with his predictions and only offers them when he is sure Blue can meet them.

The NS has flown successfully ( capsule) 3 times now, so a 2018 date for commercial operations is good bet.

Offline GreenShrike

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #9 on: 03/09/2016 04:21 PM »
Ars Technica has a write up of a factory tour. Lots of neat pictures of capsules under construction.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/behind-the-curtain-ars-goes-inside-blue-origins-secretive-rocket-factory/

There's apparently going to be more articles this week:

Quote
Ars will have more coverage on Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos later this week, including in-depth articles on the company’s space tourism plans and its founder's devotion to both reusability and opening space to millions of people.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2016 04:22 PM by GreenShrike »
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #10 on: 03/09/2016 08:35 PM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

Normally I'd agree with you, but don't you think that Blue Origin is a slightly different case here? We're talking about a vehicle that's already flown twice above the von Karman line in a form that is very similar to the one they'll fly tourists in. They're already in unmanned flight testing, and will be flying scientific payloads within the next 3-6 months. They're also building up enough vehicles (six tail numbers) that losing one in flight test won't delay them anywhere near as much as the SS2 incident did. Especially if it's booster recovery failure and not a loss-of-capsule failure. Most of the other invocations of the "we'll be flying people within 2yrs" we've seen over the past two decades have been by companies who were still designing/building their vehicle and/or still raising money. Only SS2 has claimed 2yrs while actually in flight test, and frankly I think New Shepard is a much better designed and simpler system. Is it the best approach for suborbital tourism? Probably not. But acting like Blue Origin and say XCOR are in the same category seems to be potentially overly cynical.

Of course I've been wrong so many times before on industry being this close, but this seems qualitatively different.

~Jon


Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #11 on: 03/09/2016 08:48 PM »
The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.
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Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #12 on: 03/09/2016 08:53 PM »

The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.

I have a lot of time for Bezos when it comes to space. I like his steady methodical approach and the fact that they haven't constantly driven the hype wagon unlike some of their competitors.

Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #13 on: 03/09/2016 08:54 PM »

The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.

I have a lot of time for Bezos when it comes to space. I like his steady methodical approach and the fact that they haven't constantly driven the hype wagon unlike some of their competitors.

yes

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-differences-in-company-culture-between-Blue-Origin-SpaceX-and-Virgin-Galactic/answer/Larry-Pieniazek  (my answer to a question about culture of the three outfits)
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #14 on: 03/09/2016 08:56 PM »
The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.
...however, we're starting to get into billions of dollars in investment to pull all these things off (New Shepard, multiple Cryogenic pump-fed rocket engines, launch pad, large new actors for full scale BE4 production, etc). New Shepard could be funded with Bezos' fun money, but the orbital stuff relies on real contracts with real customers or at least would require Bezos to sell off (or leverage) some Amazon stock. I think it's a good change because it forces Blue Origin to actually fly stuff.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #15 on: 03/09/2016 09:06 PM »
Today + 18 months is the standard for suborbital tourism. Today + 3 years is the standard for launching NASA astronauts to the ISS. Both are claims made consistently and it always "feels like for reals this time".

If you want a hint as to why Blue Origin won't be launching tourists in 2018, just read the rest of the article. They're already distracted by other things.

When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #16 on: 03/10/2016 12:55 AM »
NASA astronauts to ISS is now +18 months.

It's a miracle space tourism (with only 6 figures) is happening at all, frankly.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Borklund

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #17 on: 03/10/2016 07:43 AM »
If you want a hint as to why Blue Origin won't be launching tourists in 2018, just read the rest of the article. They're already distracted by other things.
Jeff Bezos' focus is clearly on the near term (BE-4, New Shepard) and not a million people living and working in space, you're reading way too much into articles that simply mentioned the bigger picture.

Offline Oli

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #18 on: 03/10/2016 08:47 AM »
From the article:

Quote
His argument was simple: Energy consumption has been rising at 2 or 3 percent a year. Even at that modest rate, within a few centuries, the energy usage would be equal to the energy produced by high-efficiency solar cells covering the entire surface of the planet. “We’ll be using all of the solar energy that impacts the Earth,” he said. “That’s an actual limit.”

Per capita energy consumption has been stagnating in the industrialized world since the late 70s. The growth of world-wide energy consumption is entirely driven by population and catch-up economic growth in developing countries. That won't last forever. Another century at worst. There are also alternatives to solar like wind, hydro or fusion.

Its depressing that space fans always have to come up with such flimsy arguments for expanding humanity into space.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2016 08:47 AM by Oli »

Offline MattMason

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #19 on: 03/10/2016 12:56 PM »
It looks like Blue Origin is going to start engaging the Media more.

Quote
Mr. Bezos said Blue Origin was quiet not necessarily to be secretive, but to avoid overpromising itself. “Space is really easy to overhype,” he said.

Lots of good tidbits in this article:

- They spent their first few years researching alternative approaches to chemical rockets.
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.
- Tests of the BE-4 coming later this year.
- More details coming later this year about their future orbital rocket.

Does anyone else get the sensation of receiving a Golden Ticket for entry into the secretive factory of an eccentric genius?

All that's missing are some Oompa Loompas.

That said, this is a good thing, as few businesses can do business with companies that are too secretive. And the article(s) clearly show that Blue Origin is more than just a billionaire hobbiest's dream.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2016 12:56 PM by MattMason »
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Offline notsorandom

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #20 on: 03/10/2016 01:27 PM »
The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.
...however, we're starting to get into billions of dollars in investment to pull all these things off (New Shepard, multiple Cryogenic pump-fed rocket engines, launch pad, large new actors for full scale BE4 production, etc). New Shepard could be funded with Bezos' fun money, but the orbital stuff relies on real contracts with real customers or at least would require Bezos to sell off (or leverage) some Amazon stock. I think it's a good change because it forces Blue Origin to actually fly stuff.
In that context it is easy to understand how the Blue/ULA relationship with the BE-4 is beneficial for both parties.

Offline parabolicarc

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #21 on: 03/10/2016 02:45 PM »
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.
The old rule that was working well for SpaceShipTwo seems to be:

promised_launch_year = current_year + 2

Current year is the key here. It's 2018 in 2016, but it will be 2019 in 2017.

I'm looking forward to be proven wrong, though.

Blue Origin doesn't seem to have problems with its engines the way that Virgin Galactic has had over the years. Virgin seems to have resolved those problems now, but the engine held things up for a long time. They also had issues with manufacturing the nitrous oxide tank.

The other problem was that Virgin had no idea how to set realistic expectations for its program. The Virgin Group treated it as yet another venture like airlines and trains, to be plugged into a global branding effort. The idea is that Galactic will greatly enhance the brand. They never quite grasped that this was a development program involving first generation technology. That led Branson to a series of predictions that had little to do with what was happening in Mojave. He's finally stopped making predictions, which is a good thing.

Bezos and Blue have been quite cautious over the years in making predictions about anything. If they're saying 2018, it's a good bet that is a realistic time frame.

Blue has said it wants to have dozens of additional flight tests of New Shepard before putting tourists on board. That's a very positive sign that they're going to test the bejesus out of the system first and they're not in any hurry to be the first to fly. If the schedule slips into 2019, it will be because the testing took longer than planned.


Online llanitedave

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #22 on: 03/10/2016 02:57 PM »
Today + 18 months is the standard for suborbital tourism. Today + 3 years is the standard for launching NASA astronauts to the ISS. Both are claims made consistently and it always "feels like for reals this time".

If you want a hint as to why Blue Origin won't be launching tourists in 2018, just read the rest of the article. They're already distracted by other things.


That kind of thinking didn't work for Zeno, and it doesn't work here either.
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Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #23 on: 03/10/2016 03:22 PM »
If you want a hint as to why Blue Origin won't be launching tourists in 2018, just read the rest of the article. They're already distracted by other things.
Jeff Bezos' focus is clearly on the near term (BE-4, New Shepard) and not a million people living and working in space, you're reading way too much into articles that simply mentioned the bigger picture.
I mostly agree with you, but I do think that it is possible that BE-4 and Very Big Brother become distractions for New Shepard. At least somewhat. But I am nowhere near as pessimistic (Based on nothing at all except fanboyishness) as QuantumG
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #24 on: 03/10/2016 04:20 PM »
As to the OP's article:
Quote from: KENNETH CHANG
For years, what went on here was mysterious and unknown, like Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory in Roald Dahl’s children’s book.
The capsule with its large glass windows reminds
of Dahl's "Great Glass Elevator", visualized in the 70's "Willy Wonka" movie:


Today + 18 months is the standard for suborbital tourism. Today + 3 years is the standard for launching NASA astronauts to the ISS. Both are claims made consistently and it always "feels like for reals this time".

Perspective - JFK and his "within the decade" to put a man on the moon. Doable/done by a world power, as a demonstration of that power (in lieu of a nuclear confrontation/war). The power of a national commitment under duress, done at a severe cost.

Afterwards, a relaxation of commitment/goals. Shuttle, a "follow-on" to claim space transportation dominance through launch, with an undercurrent of overt military threat (as interpreted by rival), doable/"half-done" in another decade or so, again by national commitment. More relaxation of commitment/goals by a super power.

These are singular goals. Another, related into a quasi commercial form, was EELV, to provide a reliable launch provider for national aims, not unlike what happened elsewhere with Ariane. Gradually relaxed commitment.

Singular goals fit with national need, but they aren't truly "commercialization" - they serve a purpose because there is no "market" because there cannot be a market this early in the process.

When you have a handful of businesses moot businesses in a related area, you still have no market, no compelling need unsatisfied by efforts that came before it. The "aberrations" created by the "non market" of national need distort the process, and as a market is either discovered as real or dispelled as fantasy, these players weave a drama as they cast about for it. Musk and Branson are showmen for that drama, with different tales to tell, funding different plays on the stage. Bezos is slightly different, wishing to compartmentalize to not show the "gears and cogs" as much, until he can maintain a pace.

None of them have even the tiniest fraction of the resources to bring off a market here, even if it is doable. But, as many have found, money attracts money that wants to stand next to it.

Branson builds a brand first and lets others risk money filling out the brand with something behind it.

Musk entertains with actual "you can't do this but I did this", kind of a Mythbusters as we gear up for a revision 2.0 of "old space" leaving old baggage behind on the unproven promise of launch frequency/cost improvements. He gets SiliValley+related deep pockets to fund a extremely long term business, mostly for "bragging rights".

Bezo's is obsessive about a narrow agenda that he cleaves to and hammers away at it, believing in a "the right thing, for the right reason, done the right way, in good time", irrespective of if that is, in the end, the correct path in retrospect. Since he's used to doing deals with large companies to get what he might need, he gradually factors them in, but keeps them at arms length the entire time. Unlike Musk who resents dependency with large firms of the kind that killed Kistler with aerospace "cost loading", Bezo's relies on controlled "co-dependency" to control the mutual "poisoning", a bit like the Princess Bride's "iocane powder" routine. This requires relentless patience that the other two don't possess.

None of them have true access to the big "monies" of government and global finance. Musk leverages, like ULA/BA/LMT, OA, and various others, government contracts/initiatives/... but these come with limits/politics.

They all talk beyond their headlights - they have to do that, because for what they are doing, they are severely underfunded to bring things off. Every space launch/craft/systems vendor has been this way, it is the nature of the beast at this stage, even with US/China LV efforts consuming 1,000's of times more funding/economic leverage.

Space is hard.

The difference is in approach - what you put in, what you get out. Governments look a singular goals and fund to get them regardless of means to the end - this limits what they attempt. Entrepreneurs massively leverage an indeterminate vision/path. because they can't afford time/cost that the government can. Such indeterminacy is unbounded, and the visions can also be hallucinations.

Offline Oli

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #25 on: 03/10/2016 04:28 PM »
Blue Origin doesn't seem to have problems with its engines the way that Virgin Galactic has had over the years. Virgin seems to have resolved those problems now, but the engine held things up for a long time. They also had issues with manufacturing the nitrous oxide tank.

Blue Origin is using a 490kn hydrolox engine though, which is somewhat excessive for suborbital tourism. Unless that makes it super reusable.

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #26 on: 03/10/2016 05:12 PM »
Blue Origin doesn't seem to have problems with its engines the way that Virgin Galactic has had over the years. Virgin seems to have resolved those problems now, but the engine held things up for a long time. They also had issues with manufacturing the nitrous oxide tank.

Blue Origin is using a 490kn hydrolox engine though, which is somewhat excessive for suborbital tourism. Unless that makes it super reusable.

Where to start ... certainly doesn't need "hydrolox", even if to avoid coking on reuse. Even more on vehicle trades following propulsion. New Shepard is meant to set a direction beyond suborbital space tourism.

Clearly its the top part of an orbital stack, and they are incrementally introducing parts of an orbital architecture well ahead of the need for them in a suborbital system. Add a little to a pile every time ... and you end up with a big pile.

And the thrust/iSP/weight of the BE-3 seems to be consistent with what you might like for an in-space stage that can carry a meaningful payload to some C3 destinations.

Offline RanulfC

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #27 on: 03/10/2016 06:34 PM »
Where to start ... certainly doesn't need "hydrolox", even if to avoid coking on reuse. Even more on vehicle trades following propulsion. New Shepard is meant to set a direction beyond suborbital space tourism.

Clearly its the top part of an orbital stack, and they are incrementally introducing parts of an orbital architecture well ahead of the need for them in a suborbital system. Add a little to a pile every time ... and you end up with a big pile.

And the thrust/iSP/weight of the BE-3 seems to be consistent with what you might like for an in-space stage that can carry a meaningful payload to some C3 destinations.

Uhm... Well you're correct that any reusable vehicle doesn't need a hydrolox engine to be reusable, though there are quite a number of people and organizations that seem to think it IS a requirement. Considering the background of a majority of the BO engineers I was actually surprised when they started with keroxide and jet engines :) You really want a better combination than hydrolox for a booster. Which is why (I assume) they chose methalox (LNG/LOx technically but :) ) for the BE-4.

As for New Shepard being part of an orbital stack and more specifically an upper stage I'm not seeing that as a logical conclusion. It is designed for suborbital use and most of it's recovery features are not suited for orbital entry at all. I think you have that backwards. It is a good subscale demonstrator for a possible booster stage, it has all the needed "bits" to reenter and land from a suborbital trajectory which can be significantly upgraded with size and adding BE-4 engines. (New Shepard both in design and flight profile can easily be considered a "prototype" pop-up booster if one adds the appropriate upper stage{s} :) )

Randy
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Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #28 on: 03/10/2016 07:15 PM »
Uhm... Well you're correct that any reusable vehicle doesn't need a hydrolox engine to be reusable, though there are quite a number of people and organizations that seem to think it IS a requirement.
Hi Randy,

I think that is the seduction of LH as the ideal rocket fuel. And that learning how to manage it from the start is a necessary "right of passage" to the big leagues.

As opposed to the SX/other sentiment of "LH? LH? We don't ever want to touch the stinking stuff, it brings a world of pain/expense, it'll just slow us down and keep us insanely priced".

Quote
Considering the background of a majority of the BO engineers I was actually surprised when they started with keroxide and jet engines :) You really want a better combination than hydrolox for a booster. Which is why (I assume) they chose methalox (LNG/LOx technically but :) ) for the BE-4.
Agreed.

Quote
As for New Shepard being part of an orbital stack and more specifically an upper stage I'm not seeing that as a logical conclusion. It is designed for suborbital use and most of it's recovery features are not suited for orbital entry at all.
Point was about tankage, sizing, GNC, propulsion, props, and not necessarily design/recovery, although I think they are considering US recovery at some point. Its also about the right size for a stage that could, like EUS, handle part of ascent as well as an in-space insertion/circularization burns.

Quote
I think you have that backwards. It is a good subscale demonstrator for a possible booster stage, it has all the needed "bits" to reenter and land from a suborbital trajectory which can be significantly upgraded with size and adding BE-4 engines.
Does both roles. Not unlike Falcon 9's stages.

Expendable US is first with minimized version of the existing stage/propulsion, remove top "fins/fixture", add OA's drop down nozzle extension. Booster is larger version with new propulsion and higher capacity legs.

I think unlike F9/Atlas, they'll fly with an oversized US undersized booster from the start, giving more richer "abort for payload issues" options.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #29 on: 03/29/2016 07:34 AM »
I was at the Johnson Space Center in Houston last week, took the tour of the astronaut training facility. There, I noticed the interesting screen (pictured below, sorry for the low quality) showing four "commercial crew" rockets: from right to left, Falcon 9 / Dragon 2, Atlas 5 / Dream Chaser, Atlas 5 / Starliner and... well yes, what is that? A depiction of the Blue Origin "Very Big Brother", providing us with a scale for that rocket? Or am I missing something?
« Last Edit: 03/29/2016 07:35 AM by Bynaus »

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #30 on: 03/29/2016 08:40 AM »
I was at the Johnson Space Center in Houston last week, took the tour of the astronaut training facility. There, I noticed the interesting screen (pictured below, sorry for the low quality) showing four "commercial crew" rockets: from right to left, Falcon 9 / Dragon 2, Atlas 5 / Dream Chaser, Atlas 5 / Starliner and... well yes, what is that? A depiction of the Blue Origin "Very Big Brother", providing us with a scale for that rocket? Or am I missing something?
The illustration is consistent with Blue's circa 2011 Be-3 powered 'reusable booster system' concept; it's probably just not been updated since the early days of CCDEV.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #31 on: 03/29/2016 10:23 AM »
I was at the Johnson Space Center in Houston last week, took the tour of the astronaut training facility. There, I noticed the interesting screen (pictured below, sorry for the low quality) showing four "commercial crew" rockets: from right to left, Falcon 9 / Dragon 2, Atlas 5 / Dream Chaser, Atlas 5 / Starliner and... well yes, what is that? A depiction of the Blue Origin "Very Big Brother", providing us with a scale for that rocket? Or am I missing something?
The illustration is consistent with Blue's circa 2011 Be-3 powered 'reusable booster system' concept; it's probably just not been updated since the early days of CCDEV.

That certainly sounds like something likely to happen at JSC. :)

But you are right: Googling "blue origin reusable booster system" leads to images like this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin#/media/File:Blue_Origin_Incremental_Development_%28Spacecraft%29.jpg

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #32 on: 03/29/2016 09:15 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Why? Whilst Blue's achievements are impressive, they have not actualised anything unprecedented yet. The two-years statement is another example of an event that has precedence in aerospace and space tourism. What are you going off? Bezos's past business patterns? His companies are prone to delays like everybody else in every tech field ever to have existed, ever.

Expecting elastic timescales isn't cynical. We need to care about time less regarding spaceflight - it's often irrelevant unless you're talking decades or your competitors are extremely close at your heels. Neither is the case here. They don't compete for orbital payload delivery yet and won't for years, whilst they've got a reasonably safe shot at making a first with space tourism (whatever that "first" is when orbital tourism to that grand old space hotel the ISS has already been a phenomenon for years).
« Last Edit: 03/29/2016 09:19 PM by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Offline Star One

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Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #33 on: 03/29/2016 09:24 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Why? Whilst Blue's achievements are impressive, they have not actualised anything unprecedented yet. The two-years statement is another example of an event that has precedence in aerospace and space tourism. What are you going off? Bezos's past business patterns? His companies are prone to delays like everybody else in every tech field ever to have existed, ever.

Expecting elastic timescales isn't cynical. We need to care about time less regarding spaceflight - it's often irrelevant unless you're talking decades or your competitors are extremely close at your heels. Neither is the case here. They don't compete for orbital payload delivery yet and won't for years, whilst they've got a reasonably safe shot at making a first with space tourism (whatever that "first" is when orbital tourism to that grand old space hotel the ISS has already been a phenomenon for years).

I prefer a company that speaks in actions and progresses steadily and doesn't make grandiose claims of Martian colonies.
« Last Edit: 03/29/2016 09:27 PM by Star One »

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #34 on: 03/29/2016 09:35 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Why? Whilst Blue's achievements are impressive, they have not actualised anything unprecedented yet. The two-years statement is another example of an event that has precedence in aerospace and space tourism. What are you going off? Bezos's past business patterns? His companies are prone to delays like everybody else in every tech field ever to have existed, ever.

Expecting elastic timescales isn't cynical. We need to care about time less regarding spaceflight - it's often irrelevant unless you're talking decades or your competitors are extremely close at your heels. Neither is the case here. They don't compete for orbital payload delivery yet and won't for years, whilst they've got a reasonably safe shot at making a first with space tourism (whatever that "first" is when orbital tourism to that grand old space hotel the ISS has already been a phenomenon for years).

I prefer a company that speaks in actions and progresses steadily and doesn't make grandiose claims of Martian colonies.

I can prefer warp drive over space folding for space propulsion, but that's irrelevant to the choice of a propulsion system to mount a current mission off of.

Bezos also makes grandiose claims. One of the reasons I still regard them as pure "BO".

Musk has been in the space business for a number of years with actual missions. BO, while having some impressive accomplishments, has not yet done a single mission nor is one even proposed.

Accomplishing missions are a relevant measure. Not our preferences.

Speaking of which, I prefer to drink a sip of water right now ...

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #35 on: 03/29/2016 09:39 PM »

I prefer a company that speaks in actions and progresses steadily and doesn't make grandiose claims of Martian colonies.

It's a company that aspires to put thousands of people living and working in space, another company wants to have thousands of people living and working in space as well. Both have similar ethoses which are extremely self-demanding. A lot of NASA people have similar goals, the Chinese want people to be working on the moon. Space is all about grandiose claims. Kennedy made one if you remember. But that's where the comparative ability ends.

If this TeamX/TeamB crudball keeps rolling on, somebody could earn a killing printing shirts. Hell, I have access to a press, I might bootleg a few and fund my next car. They're not even in the same ballpark as each other and won't be for years - could we not appreciate each company for their individual merits, rather than by placing them in artificial adjacency? We can evangelise, sure, but we don't need to do attack PR. Indeed, the OP contains a healthy, constructive example of BO marketing itself in a way that is both optimistic and revealing.

There really should be a censor function on this website for every use of the word "fanboy".
« Last Edit: 03/29/2016 09:43 PM by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Online AncientU

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #36 on: 03/29/2016 10:30 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Why? Whilst Blue's achievements are impressive, they have not actualised anything unprecedented yet. The two-years statement is another example of an event that has precedence in aerospace and space tourism. What are you going off? Bezos's past business patterns? His companies are prone to delays like everybody else in every tech field ever to have existed, ever.

Expecting elastic timescales isn't cynical. We need to care about time less regarding spaceflight - it's often irrelevant unless you're talking decades or your competitors are extremely close at your heels. Neither is the case here. They don't compete for orbital payload delivery yet and won't for years, whilst they've got a reasonably safe shot at making a first with space tourism (whatever that "first" is when orbital tourism to that grand old space hotel the ISS has already been a phenomenon for years).

I prefer a company that speaks in actions and progresses steadily and doesn't make grandiose claims of Martian colonies.

Q: What do you do if a company progresses steadily and makes grandiose claims of Martian colonies?
A: Ignore the progress.
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Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #37 on: 03/29/2016 11:00 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Why? Whilst Blue's achievements are impressive, they have not actualised anything unprecedented yet. The two-years statement is another example of an event that has precedence in aerospace and space tourism. What are you going off? Bezos's past business patterns? His companies are prone to delays like everybody else in every tech field ever to have existed, ever.

Expecting elastic timescales isn't cynical. We need to care about time less regarding spaceflight - it's often irrelevant unless you're talking decades or your competitors are extremely close at your heels. Neither is the case here. They don't compete for orbital payload delivery yet and won't for years, whilst they've got a reasonably safe shot at making a first with space tourism (whatever that "first" is when orbital tourism to that grand old space hotel the ISS has already been a phenomenon for years).

I prefer a company that speaks in actions and progresses steadily and doesn't make grandiose claims of Martian colonies.

I can prefer warp drive over space folding for space propulsion, but that's irrelevant to the choice of a propulsion system to mount a current mission off of.

Bezos also makes grandiose claims. One of the reasons I still regard them as pure "BO".

Musk has been in the space business for a number of years with actual missions. BO, while having some impressive accomplishments, has not yet done a single mission nor is one even proposed.

Accomplishing missions are a relevant measure. Not our preferences.

Speaking of which, I prefer to drink a sip of water right now ...

Yes Bezos makes claims but at least his seem based in the realm of the possible for what a company such as his may achieve & don't seek to overreach themselves.

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #38 on: 03/29/2016 11:16 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Why? Whilst Blue's achievements are impressive, they have not actualised anything unprecedented yet. The two-years statement is another example of an event that has precedence in aerospace and space tourism. What are you going off? Bezos's past business patterns? His companies are prone to delays like everybody else in every tech field ever to have existed, ever.

Expecting elastic timescales isn't cynical. We need to care about time less regarding spaceflight - it's often irrelevant unless you're talking decades or your competitors are extremely close at your heels. Neither is the case here. They don't compete for orbital payload delivery yet and won't for years, whilst they've got a reasonably safe shot at making a first with space tourism (whatever that "first" is when orbital tourism to that grand old space hotel the ISS has already been a phenomenon for years).

I prefer a company that speaks in actions and progresses steadily and doesn't make grandiose claims of Martian colonies.

I can prefer warp drive over space folding for space propulsion, but that's irrelevant to the choice of a propulsion system to mount a current mission off of.

Bezos also makes grandiose claims. One of the reasons I still regard them as pure "BO".

Musk has been in the space business for a number of years with actual missions. BO, while having some impressive accomplishments, has not yet done a single mission nor is one even proposed.

Accomplishing missions are a relevant measure. Not our preferences.

Speaking of which, I prefer to drink a sip of water right now ...

Yes Bezos makes claims but at least his seem based in the realm of the possible for what a company such as his may achieve & don't seek to overreach themselves.

Glad you improved your post over the deleted one:
Quote from: Star One
Another one who has been drinking the Space X kool aid I see.
... which sounded bitter and counter to your usual quality posts.

Let's get this straight - "bitter" and "kool aid" are both poisons. Doesn't matter how they work differently, they have the same effect. The providers have been bitter for a long time, with good reason.

Have been into both Musk and Bezos organizations (others here too). Generally don't like the way they are run, nor do like the way they pontificate. If you asked me I'd say they'd do better to STFUP.

Just look at missions as reality. The good and the bad. The rest is noise. Some sounds more pleasing, some less, but its easy to be deceived.

Watched them go right into the wall eyes open. Musk bugs me but can deal with it. Bruno makes consistent sense, but the parent's straight jacket limits whatever can be done. Bezos weirds me out - was present to watch him lose a $100M on his, and only his, decision. Yes these color my view of people.

And am just giving impressions. Take them or leave them. Not making any of this, or necessarily an advocate for it.

add:

And you haven't heard Bezos in private with what he claims he wants to do. Its no less off the wall than Musk.

If you visit facilities, you'll see some things, and if you ask about them, the sentiments are real and in the DNA of the firms. So you may be reacting to the "public face" without knowing what backs it up.

And I'll add that BO's incrementalism is more comforting to me as a professional than Musks over the top showmanship. It does grate. But then lets let Bezos roll for an equal number of launches before comparing rational claims - it would not surprise me if they seem more alike as the numbers converge.
« Last Edit: 03/29/2016 11:26 PM by Space Ghost 1962 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #39 on: 03/30/2016 12:46 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2016 12:48 AM by Robotbeat »
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #40 on: 03/30/2016 01:36 AM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.
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Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #41 on: 03/30/2016 06:38 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #42 on: 03/30/2016 08:32 AM »
It's a bit like the European attitude to US winemaking. American wines win international awards more consistently, but are often sniffed at due to lacking some imagined European elan. What ultimately matters to some isn't the performance of the wine, but the associations the wine carries with it. The Napa valley just isn't as romantic to some as the image of old world romance vineyards, so they keep on drinking European wine.

Ultimately we need to depersonalise the companies and focus on performance - the "walk" as mentioned upthread - rather than a backlash to PR and advertisement. All PR is good PR, PR gets the average non-spaceflight fan emotionally invested, or at minimum, informed.

I'm sure most of us here consider the goals of Blue (SpaceX, VG and everyone else) to be objectively exciting, and the fact that they're all striving to reach those goals is inherently more important than if they ever attain them. After all, if you attain 7 figures living and working in space or 7 figures on Mars specifically, then you've already done all the impressive work. Onwards and upwards.

This is space. If we were thinking realistically, whatever that's meant to mean, we wouldn't even be going into space. There's nothing about space which isn't risky and self-demanding. It requires a vast amount of expertise, vision and money. These companies have that for now.

Besides, we gain nothing from saying that anyone's goals are unrealistic except immobility and a general lack of inspiration. "Hype" is a perfectly normal, healthy sensation that permits people to have fun. I wouldn't be a space fan without hype.
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Offline baldusi

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #43 on: 03/30/2016 03:02 PM »
Being not American nor European, I can attest that American wines have a very bad quality/price equation. Winning international awards in wine means nothing. And I've tested Argentine prize winning wines and are nothing compared to the great French wines.
Wines, art and food is extremely difficult to reduce to numbers. It has a lot of qualities that you can't really put a finger on but are there none the less.
Space launch services, on the other hand, is probably one of the most engineered industries. The real issue is that the service, while you can put it into numbers, is a multidimensional vector with a huge number of coordinates. Given the very limited number of offerings, it is extremely difficult to get an offer that is better than the other in all qualities. That's why actual clients do a significant effort on trading options and requirements.
Thus, hype only works for us common fans and has close to zero impact for Blue.

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #44 on: 04/01/2016 07:46 PM »
And they are off again tomorrow.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/715984864323842049

Same vehicle third time.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2016 07:46 PM by Star One »

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #45 on: 04/01/2016 07:50 PM »
 Collated tweets from Bezos regarding launch attempt tomorrow;
Quote
Working to fly again tomorrow. Same vehicle. Third time.

Pushing the envelope. Restarting BE-3 fast @ high thrust, just 3600 ft from ground. Impact in 6 sec if engine doesn’t restart & ramp fast.

Also, a new more efficient RCS algorithm on the Crew Capsule. Big performance win if it works.

We’ll have drone cameras in the air and hopefully will get good aerial footage to share.
I believe this is the first time Blue have formally announced one of these tests in advance.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2016 07:51 PM by Kryten »

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #46 on: 04/01/2016 08:31 PM »
Collated tweets from Bezos regarding launch attempt tomorrow;
Quote
Working to fly again tomorrow. Same vehicle. Third time.

Pushing the envelope. Restarting BE-3 fast @ high thrust, just 3600 ft from ground. Impact in 6 sec if engine doesn’t restart & ramp fast.

Also, a new more efficient RCS algorithm on the Crew Capsule. Big performance win if it works.

We’ll have drone cameras in the air and hopefully will get good aerial footage to share.
I believe this is the first time Blue have formally announced one of these tests in advance.

I almost fell off my chairs when I saw all those tweets from him.

Offline bunker9603

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #47 on: 04/03/2016 08:52 PM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.


I think the reason why Bezos is "Less in your face" than Musk is because after 15 years BO still has not launched anything into orbit. It is just now after making two suborbital launches that he is starting to be more open to what his future plans are.


Spx has billions of dollars worth of contracts and has made multiple deliveries to the ISS so if I had to choose between Spx Mars goals or BO's goals of millions of people living and working in space, I choose Spx based on what has been achieved so far.
« Last Edit: 04/03/2016 08:59 PM by bunker9603 »

Offline su27k

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #48 on: 04/04/2016 02:30 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.


I think the reason why Bezos is "Less in your face" than Musk is because after 15 years BO still has not launched anything into orbit. It is just now after making two suborbital launches that he is starting to be more open to what his future plans are.

To be fair, before SpaceX's first attempted (and failed) orbital launch, they were already pretty eager to show off their stuff, remember Musk put a Falcon 1 (probably closer to mockup given later development) on the street of Washington DC just a year after the company is founded.

But I think this is perfectly understandable given their funding situation, Musk only has $100M before SpaceX went belly up, so they had to act fast and attract customers/funding, Blue can afford to be secretive only because Bezos' unlimited pocket.

(A bit off topic, but I find it ironic that SpaceX has been increasingly secretive lately even though some people still think they run a hype machine... When is the last time they officially unveiled something in development? All the new development are veiled in secrecy, with the exception of booster landing)

Offline Kabloona

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #49 on: 04/04/2016 02:49 AM »
Bezos has mentioned millions of people living in space (and has implied either on rocky bodies or free space structures).

Musk has mentioned a million person Mars city.

Honestly, that's about as ambitious either way, and perhaps Bezos' is more ambitious. It's just more vague. And Blue Origin's accomplishments have been dwarfed by SpaceX's, in spite of Blue Origin starting earlier and with access to much more wealth from its founder.

Honestly, if you look at statements such as those, SpaceX's walk-to-talk ratio is much greater than Blue Origin's. It's just that Musk is in the public eye much more often.

Anyway, who cares. I'm just glad there are two such space billionaires energetically working to achieve 7-figures of people in space using rapidly reusable rockets in case one of them (god forbid) gets hit by a bus.

Yes they both say some out there things but for whatever reason any statements from Bezos have seemed less in your face and more low key. Maybe not necessarily all the their own fault, the media must play their part in this as do some of their fans, but sometimes there seems like a relentless hype machine is running around Space X that I personally find off putting.

This quote from Bezos about "hype" is telling:

Quote
“I’ve always said space is really easy to overhype,” said company founder Jeff Bezos, who participated in the tour. “I’ve always said the same thing, which is we’ll talk about Blue when we have something to talk about.”

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2949/1

In this age of relentless PR, it's rather refreshing to see less talk before the action.

Of course, SpaceX has been fighting a different battle than Blue, ie trying to break into the Gov't launch market, so they've been forced to fight fire with fire and engage in the PR war with ULA, so it would be rather unfair to compare SpaceX and Blue's vastly different PR philosophies.
« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 02:57 AM by Kabloona »

Offline JamesH65

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #50 on: 04/04/2016 03:20 PM »
Can someone explain to me this 'hype machine' that people seem to think SpaceX are using? Because as I see it, SpaceX themselves don;t do a lot of hype - that tends to come from third parties. You get occasional tweets from SpaceX and Musk, but nothing I would regards as a 'hype machine'.

If anything, I'd like to see more stuff being announced.

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #51 on: 04/04/2016 05:02 PM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.

Does that mean that Space is now "the next big thing", just as the Internet was once the "next big thing"?
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?

I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.




Offline DanielW

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #52 on: 04/04/2016 05:29 PM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.

Does that mean that Space is now "the next big thing", just as the Internet was once the "next big thing"?
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?

I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.

Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires or if one succeeds we will probably see our first trillionaire. According to some creative accounting anyway. Space economies will generate enormous value, but mostly for the space economy. Not much value that can be spent back at earth. But in terms of "number of salaries" they could pay, I would bet on some of these companies eventually becoming an order of magnitude larger than current earthly companies.

Online Space Ghost 1962

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #53 on: 04/04/2016 05:38 PM »
As Doug reported last year there's now double digit numbers of billionaires investing in space. That's only the ones we know about and have noticed.

Does that mean that Space is now "the next big thing", just as the Internet was once the "next big thing"?

No. At the moment it is a "bragging rights" fad among "accomplished billionaires", at the moment who otherwise have gotten bored with "hookers and blow".

But who knows? If one of them really gets popular off it, the others might get ... relentless.

Quote
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?
Neither. Become a successful entrepreneur (somehow) first. Then learn who to trust in aerospace circles.

Quote
I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.
Unlikely.

More likely is that we might have a 20 year interval where aerospace gets overinvested/explored, and during that time, scientists/engineers try things to grow the sector of what to use space for, NGO's can "piggyback" on govt developed HSF/SC/propulsion to experiment with loss-only ventures that neither business nor govt would ever be able to try.

After all of this, you'll be left with a "different" situation then we have ever had, with different, proven economics. Then business/govt/NGO's actually start doing the things that might result in the next Apple or Google or Boeing ... suggest you think about the next Applied Materials for that list of yours ;)

Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires ...
Trillions will be lost. So what. That's what "big" money is for ...

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #54 on: 04/04/2016 11:02 PM »
Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires or if one succeeds we will probably see our first trillionaire. According to some creative accounting anyway. Space economies will generate enormous value, but mostly for the space economy. Not much value that can be spent back at earth. But in terms of "number of salaries" they could pay, I would bet on some of these companies eventually becoming an order of magnitude larger than current earthly companies.

Well, I've heard so many times that whatever resource exploitation is done in space will only be economical for usage out there, and not for usage back here on Earth. So it almost reminds me of online games and their "virtual money" which can be earned and spent inside the virtual world of the game. Maybe this analog can then provide the basis for simulation of what a space economy would be like in regards to its separateness and its weak interaction with our real-world Earthly economy. Maybe one day instead of inexpensively hiring a 3rd-world geek to farm gold for you in some virtual online game, they'll instead be hired to remotely tend to some off-world robot doing some off-world resource harvesting, etc in the service of the space economy.

No. At the moment it is a "bragging rights" fad among "accomplished billionaires", at the moment who otherwise have gotten bored with "hookers and blow".

But who knows? If one of them really gets popular off it, the others might get ... relentless.

Well, space is now considered the most challenging, cool and worthwhile frontier available. Maybe that's a consequence of the Trekkie generation.

http://www.geekwire.com/2016/payscale-ratings-rank-spacex-tesla-low-salary-high-meaningfulness/


Quote
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?
Neither. Become a successful entrepreneur (somehow) first. Then learn who to trust in aerospace circles.[/quote]

Hmm, so entrepreneurialism is the best way to get into aerospace?
I would have thought cutting your teeth at an existing employer is the best way to learn the ropes before striking out on your own.

Quote
Quote
I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.
Unlikely.

More likely is that we might have a 20 year interval where aerospace gets overinvested/explored, and during that time, scientists/engineers try things to grow the sector of what to use space for, NGO's can "piggyback" on govt developed HSF/SC/propulsion to experiment with loss-only ventures that neither business nor govt would ever be able to try.

After all of this, you'll be left with a "different" situation then we have ever had, with different, proven economics. Then business/govt/NGO's actually start doing the things that might result in the next Apple or Google or Boeing ... suggest you think about the next Applied Materials for that list of yours ;)


But it seems to me that space launch capabilities are going to be ramping up so quickly over the next 10 years, that there will be an explosion of space applications that will be made possible by the increase in transport capabilities relative to price and demand.

Fine, since the launch providers are the key bottleneck, they will "own" space for the near/medium-term, but once launch providers are plentiful enough - there are plenty of airlines, even if there are only a few OEM manufacturers of airliners - then as access to space becomes assured, the way will be cleared for large companies to make a living off doing actual things in space.

Quote
Well they will eventually go from being billionaires to being millionaires ...
Trillions will be lost. So what. That's what "big" money is for ...

Trilliions will be expended, but even if companies go belly-up it won't all be lost, because the resultant learning will likely be applicable to further enterprises in space.
« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 11:03 PM by sanman »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #55 on: 04/04/2016 11:19 PM »
Can someone explain to me this 'hype machine' that people seem to think SpaceX are using? Because as I see it, SpaceX themselves don;t do a lot of hype - that tends to come from third parties. You get occasional tweets from SpaceX and Musk, but nothing I would regards as a 'hype machine'.

You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #56 on: 04/05/2016 12:07 AM »

Quote
Is it time for undergrads to start switching in droves to electrical, mechanical and aerospace engineering?
Bezos himself is an electrical engineering grad. Or should it be business majors taking a minor in aerospace?
Neither. Become a successful entrepreneur (somehow) first. Then learn who to trust in aerospace circles.

Hmm, so entrepreneurialism is the best way to get into aerospace?
I would have thought cutting your teeth at an existing employer is the best way to learn the ropes before striking out on your own.
You weren't specific. I took what you said, in the context of this thread, to mean to be as effective as Bezos himself here.

In other words, the idea is that the perspective of being entrepreneurial matters most to doing like Bezos/Musk.

If being with an employer makes you that, fine.

Quote
Quote
Quote
I wonder if this battle-of-the-billionaires competition will create the next Apple or Google or Boeing.
Unlikely.

More likely is that we might have a 20 year interval where aerospace gets overinvested/explored, and during that time, scientists/engineers try things to grow the sector of what to use space for, NGO's can "piggyback" on govt developed HSF/SC/propulsion to experiment with loss-only ventures that neither business nor govt would ever be able to try.

After all of this, you'll be left with a "different" situation then we have ever had, with different, proven economics. Then business/govt/NGO's actually start doing the things that might result in the next Apple or Google or Boeing ... suggest you think about the next Applied Materials for that list of yours ;)

But it seems to me that space launch capabilities are going to be ramping up so quickly over the next 10 years, that there will be an explosion of space applications that will be made possible by the increase in transport capabilities relative to price and demand.

Presuming your "explosion" is somewhat naive. That way never happens. Nor does launch ramping up matter, because it can ramp right down again. Please don't look at those things.

Launch is a tiny part of the business. Spacecraft/missions are much bigger business, and just as in need of reinvention as launch is.  My comments are about the risk takers that do missions that never would have been done before, that succeed. You make take this for granted, but you really shouldn't, because that is really where all the action will be.

Quote
Fine, since the launch providers are the key bottleneck, they will "own" space for the near/medium-term, but once launch providers are plentiful enough - there are plenty of airlines, even if there are only a few OEM manufacturers of airliners - then as access to space becomes assured, the way will be cleared for large companies to make a living off doing actual things in space.
They are one bottleneck. There are others. Including (business) structural ones.

So look at it this way - industry changes means that the clever guys can moot things they couldn't before, they convince business/govt/NGOs to speculatively try them, some succeed, that fills the "launch deficit" growing the market, which feeds back into industry change, and the cycle starts again.

Never presume "if they build it" that "it will grow/work/happen".

Offline JamesH65

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #57 on: 04/05/2016 08:56 AM »
Can someone explain to me this 'hype machine' that people seem to think SpaceX are using? Because as I see it, SpaceX themselves don;t do a lot of hype - that tends to come from third parties. You get occasional tweets from SpaceX and Musk, but nothing I would regards as a 'hype machine'.

You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

One example does not imply 'hype machine'. I'm sure there are other examples, but nothing to merit the hype phrase.

The Raspberry Pi foundation have also been accused of 'hype'. And yet they are similar - they rely on word of mouth and enthusiasts to do their hyping for them, with no encouragement whatsoever. And it works! Enthusiasts and fans do a better job that any PR hyping, and lots cheaper!

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #58 on: 04/05/2016 09:10 AM »
You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

Not so, according to Tim: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #59 on: 04/05/2016 09:56 AM »
You mean other than all the astroturfing they do? e.g., Tim Urban had never even heard of SpaceX when they contacted him to meet with Elon.

Not so, according to Tim: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/05/elon-musk-the-worlds-raddest-man.html

That's a candid description of astroturfing. His articles, if he had written them at all, would have been completely different if they hadn't reached out to him. Instead there's essentially zero new content and virtually no opinions beyond "OMG, wow." If you want another example of the process, read Ashlee Vance's book. It starts out as good investigative journalism, and then it turns into yet another press release for Elon.

That's the hype machine.

When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #60 on: 04/05/2016 10:14 AM »
Quote
His articles, if he had written them at all, would have been completely different if they hadn't reached out to him.

Possible, but that was not the point. Tim was well aware of Elon Musk and SpaceX, as about any tech/space nerd with access to the internet must have been at the time.

I read Ashley's book when it came out, I didn't feel it was a "press release for Elon". He and Elon are on less-than-stellar terms, too. But we digress. This thread should be about BO.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #61 on: 04/07/2016 04:31 PM »
Can this thread at least be about Bezos' ego? In spite of all the talk about BO being less hype-y, I definitely think SpaceX has toned down the hype/progress ratio since the Falcon 9 pathfinder vehicle was brought vertical in January 2009. And Blue Origin has started talking about millions of people in space. That's more than SpaceX! :D

I like it. The more Bezos feels the need to defend his ego, the more proportion of his wealth and time he will spend on space. This is very good!
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Offline MattMason

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #62 on: 04/07/2016 07:00 PM »
Can this thread at least be about Bezos' ego? In spite of all the talk about BO being less hype-y, I definitely think SpaceX has toned down the hype/progress ratio since the Falcon 9 pathfinder vehicle was brought vertical in January 2009. And Blue Origin has started talking about millions of people in space. That's more than SpaceX! :D

I like it. The more Bezos feels the need to defend his ego, the more proportion of his wealth and time he will spend on space. This is very good!

I see Bezo's increased public communications as simply a salesman's confidence that what he has to sell is safe enough to discuss--and thus, market.

Hindsight seems to indicate that (1) Blue Origin did not want to fall into the Virgin Galactic trap of hype before results/proven safety and (2) Blue Origin wanted to have something substantial to discuss.

Bezos certainly has something to discuss now. And he's got my attention.
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Offline kevinof

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #63 on: 04/07/2016 07:17 PM »
Agree with you on that. I think they/he were waiting until they had something to shout about.  While I'm not a fan of Bezos, I am a fan of BO and like what they are doing. Will be interesting to see where they take us.


Can this thread at least be about Bezos' ego? In spite of all the talk about BO being less hype-y, I definitely think SpaceX has toned down the hype/progress ratio since the Falcon 9 pathfinder vehicle was brought vertical in January 2009. And Blue Origin has started talking about millions of people in space. That's more than SpaceX! :D

I like it. The more Bezos feels the need to defend his ego, the more proportion of his wealth and time he will spend on space. This is very good!

I see Bezo's increased public communications as simply a salesman's confidence that what he has to sell is safe enough to discuss--and thus, market.

Hindsight seems to indicate that (1) Blue Origin did not want to fall into the Virgin Galactic trap of hype before results/proven safety and (2) Blue Origin wanted to have something substantial to discuss.

Bezos certainly has something to discuss now. And he's got my attention.

Offline J-V

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #64 on: 04/29/2016 01:27 PM »
Here's the latest info letter from Blue Origin

In the BE-4 preburner, a very small portion of the engine’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel mixes and burns with all of the engine’s liquid oxygen to produce hot gaseous oxygen, which is used to drive the turbine and spin the turbopumps. Oxygen and LNG burn stoichiometrically above 6,000 degrees Fahrenheit, and temperatures of about 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit or more are needed to reliably ignite and sustain the reaction. No practical turbine materials would survive at that temperature, especially in a reusable application. To resolve this, the BE-4 preburner mixes unburned oxygen into the burned gas stream to dilute the combustion gases and reduce the overall temperature to about 700 degrees Fahrenheit. If this mixing process isn’t meticulously designed, hot spots can persist in the stream and limit turbine life.

To design the preburner to provide uniform temperature, we use 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to model the LNG and liquid oxygen combustion process. CFD predicts fluid behavior by solving the Navier-Stokes equations to describe how the velocity, pressure, temperature, and density of a moving fluid relate. CFD of reacting flows, especially those that also involve a phase change, is much, much harder because it must also solve chemistry along with state equations. Combusting CFD has only become practical with recent advances in chemical physics models and computing power.

[Image originally here]
Combusting CFD modeling of the BE-4 preburner shows temperature distribution of hot gaseous oxygen entering the turbine.

To date, we’ve completed several million core hours of CFD modeling of BE-4 combustion processes. Modeling of the preburner shows good mixing and temperature uniformity upstream of the turbine. The combustion and temperature data we’ve gathered in our subscale testing correlate with our CFD predictions and show that our preburner sizing and injector element design meet design requirements. The ability to do combusting CFD simulations doesn’t eliminate the need for rigorous testing, but it will significantly shorten the test-fail-fix loop on the test stand. We’ll keep you updated.

Gradatim Ferociter!

Jeff Bezos

Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #65 on: 04/29/2016 01:51 PM »
I got this (because of course I subscribed to the mailing list :) ) and my jaw dropped... it's bragging but it's also very rich in detail. Pretty awesome.  Presumably they've rigged up Amazon elastic computing services to do this CFD for them.
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Online WBY1984

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #66 on: 04/29/2016 01:53 PM »
Things are going to get very interesting indeed when they complete the BE-4. Their orbital launcher could make a big dent in the Falcon rockets market share, which makes me wonder: SpaceX talks a lot about how they find ways to make their vehicles cheaper; in-house manufacturing, off-the-shelf/non traditional sourcing of components, rapid prototyping. They also pay their staff a bit less and work longer hours than other organisations - that has to help with costs too.

Is there evidence of similar behaviour at Blue, or some other strategy that would make them competitive?

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #67 on: 04/29/2016 03:29 PM »
Things are going to get very interesting indeed when they complete the BE-4. Their orbital launcher could make a big dent in the Falcon rockets market share, which makes me wonder: SpaceX talks a lot about how they find ways to make their vehicles cheaper; in-house manufacturing, off-the-shelf/non traditional sourcing of components, rapid prototyping. They also pay their staff a bit less and work longer hours than other organisations - that has to help with costs too.

Is there evidence of similar behaviour at Blue, or some other strategy that would make them competitive?

No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #68 on: 04/29/2016 04:27 PM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #69 on: 04/29/2016 04:30 PM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.

True, But ULA would love to get into the Commercial market against SpaceX and AS, with thier ULA Vulcan. ULA cannot survive only on US Gov missions.
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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #70 on: 04/29/2016 04:55 PM »
I got this (because of course I subscribed to the mailing list :) ) and my jaw dropped... it's bragging but it's also very rich in detail. Pretty awesome.  Presumably they've rigged up Amazon elastic computing services to do this CFD for them.

SpaceX are doing this with arrays of GPUs and some smart software that was dynamically modifying the scale of the simulation depending on smoothness... makes sense the Blue would do it the other way, throwing huge amounts of compute power at the problem given Amazon's vast cloud of servers are at their disposal.

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #71 on: 04/29/2016 05:03 PM »
I got this (because of course I subscribed to the mailing list :) ) and my jaw dropped... it's bragging but it's also very rich in detail. Pretty awesome.  Presumably they've rigged up Amazon elastic computing services to do this CFD for them.

SpaceX are doing this with arrays of GPUs and some smart software that was dynamically modifying the scale of the simulation depending on smoothness... makes sense the Blue would do it the other way, throwing huge amounts of compute power at the problem given Amazon's vast cloud of servers are at their disposal.
You could still dynamically modify the scale, you just need smart software that dispatches work as it slices up what work there is to do (informed by prior results)  I would be very surprised if Blue WASN'T using Amazon assets.  The IBM software that I support can run there, or on a Hadoop fabric, or on dedicated hardware, as you like...
« Last Edit: 04/29/2016 05:46 PM by Lar »
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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #72 on: 04/29/2016 05:40 PM »
It is simulation SW like this and 3D printing that is enabling all the new space companies to developed their own engines.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #73 on: 04/30/2016 03:50 AM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.
...because the initial Blue Origin orbital launch vehicle will be more Delta II sized. Falcon 9 is much closer to Atlas V size, so Blue will not be competing against SpaceX's bread and butter (GTO) unless they also compete against ULA (also in GTO).
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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #74 on: 04/30/2016 05:23 PM »
No idea about BO potential pricing, but IMO, future large BO rocket is much more likely to eat ULAs lunch.
Bezos has said he's not interested in going for the DoD launch market, that's part of why he's so comfortable working with ULA.
...because the initial Blue Origin orbital launch vehicle will be more Delta II sized. Falcon 9 is much closer to Atlas V size, so Blue will not be competing against SpaceX's bread and butter (GTO) unless they also compete against ULA (also in GTO).
Who said Blue LV will be Delta 2 size?.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #75 on: 04/30/2016 06:09 PM »
We think it will be about the size of Delta II.
One BE-4 550k lbf (2400kN) LOxLNG 170mT first stage,
BE-3U 110k lbf (490kN) 25mT LOxLH2 upper-stage and 5mT (11k lb) payload.
GLOW ~200mT (450k lb), initial T/W 1.2

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #76 on: 04/30/2016 08:11 PM »
We think it will be about the size of Delta II.
One BE-4 550k lbf (2400kN) LOxLNG 170mT first stage,
BE-3U 110k lbf (490kN) 25mT LOxLH2 upper-stage and 5mT (11k lb) payload.
GLOW ~200mT (450k lb), initial T/W 1.2


For L2 members look under L2 Orion and Future spacraft, Atlas/BE4

The 1xBE4 LV came from a comment by Tory and he may have be talking about XS1.
« Last Edit: 04/30/2016 08:13 PM by TrevorMonty »

Online Kryten

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #77 on: 04/30/2016 09:30 PM »
In any case, a relatively small vehicles makes sense simply from Blue's history. From Charon to Goddard to PM-2 to New Shephard, they've been taking a careful, incremental approach with their vehicle development; moving straight to a large LV now would be very much out of character.

Offline mfck

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #78 on: 04/30/2016 10:13 PM »
In any case, a relatively small vehicles makes sense simply from Blue's history. From Charon to Goddard to PM-2 to New Shephard, they've been taking a careful, incremental approach with their vehicle development; moving straight to a large LV now would be very much out of character.
The ferocity of the degrees is in the logarithmicity of the scale, if I may. Incremental does not have to mean linear.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #79 on: 04/30/2016 11:11 PM »
I think the first orbital vehicle from Blue Origin is certainly to be more Delta II class.

...but according to Bezos, that will be the smallest orbital vehicle they will make.

So while I most certainly expect the orbit BO vehicle to not be in Falcon 9 class, the next one most certainly will and would be competing with ULA as well. But that may take a while.
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Offline DJPledger

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #80 on: 05/01/2016 07:45 PM »
I think the first orbital vehicle from Blue Origin is certainly to be more Delta II class.

...but according to Bezos, that will be the smallest orbital vehicle they will make.

So while I most certainly expect the orbit BO vehicle to not be in Falcon 9 class, the next one most certainly will and would be competing with ULA as well. But that may take a while.
BO have said their 1st orbital vehicle will not be small so it may well be in the Falcon 9/EELV class.

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #81 on: 05/01/2016 10:59 PM »

BO have said their 1st orbital vehicle will not be small so it may well be in the Falcon 9/EELV class.

I heard it was using one BE-4 in the first stage. Intermediate class?
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Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #82 on: 05/01/2016 11:10 PM »
Their first orbital vehicle is apparently designed to lift their biconic human rated capsule carrying 7 passengers. Unless plans have changed, it can't be that small. Soyuz-class at a minimum.   
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #83 on: 05/01/2016 11:16 PM »
Their first orbital vehicle is apparently designed to lift their biconic human rated capsule carrying 7 passengers. Unless plans have changed, it can't be that small. Soyuz-class at a minimum.   

I think you mean 'Dragon'. You couldn't actually fit seven people in a Soyuz - three is already a helluva squeeze.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #84 on: 05/02/2016 02:58 AM »


Their first orbital vehicle is apparently designed to lift their biconic human rated capsule carrying 7 passengers. Unless plans have changed, it can't be that small. Soyuz-class at a minimum.   

I think you mean 'Dragon'. You couldn't actually fit seven people in a Soyuz - three is already a helluva squeeze.

Soyuz -class LV, not capsule.

Because they are developing reusable booster, better to start with a large multi engine version and do it right first time.  It maybe oversized for 7seater capsule but does allow for RTLS and option of lifting heavier space vehicles in future.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #85 on: 05/02/2016 05:50 AM »
Yes, Delta II or Soyuz class. delta II was actually pretty capable.
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Offline Star One

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Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #86 on: 05/26/2016 08:58 PM »
Blue Origin will intentionally crash its spaceship during the next test flight

The empty crew capsule will launch with faulty parachutes

Quote
"On this upcoming mission we also plan to stress the crew capsule by landing with an intentionally failed parachute, demonstrating our ability to safely handle that failure scenario," Bezos writes in an email update that was sent out this afternoon. "It promises to be an exciting demonstration."

Quote
Crashing the crew capsule won't be the only difference during this test flight. Bezos writes that the company will "execute additional maneuvers on both the crew capsule and the booster" in order to learn more about how they behave under different conditions. "One of the fundamental tenets of Blue Origin is that the safest vehicle is one that is robust and well understood," he writes. "Each successive mission affords us the opportunity to learn and improve our vehicles and their modeling."

http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/26/11790762/blue-origin-spaceship-crash-test-landing-new-shephard-parachute
« Last Edit: 05/26/2016 09:02 PM by Star One »

Online Kryten

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #87 on: 05/26/2016 09:01 PM »
 SpaceNews has that as 1 of 3 parachutes intentionally failing, which seems a lot more plausible.

http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-preparing-to-land-new-shepard-with-a-bum-parachute-next-time/

Offline meberbs

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #88 on: 05/27/2016 12:17 AM »
Full text of the e-mail update below, the "planned crash" that The Verge reported is obviously just an idiotic clickbait headline, as stated above, they will intentionally fail 1 of 3 parachutes.

Quote from: Jeff Bezos
Back in March, we shared with you our efforts on building two new test cells to further support risk reduction testing on the BE-4.  We began the construction of these additional facilities in October last year and we’ve just commissioned the first of these cells last week.  This test cell is pressure fed and supports the development of the preburner start and ignition sequence timing that will be used on the upcoming full scale powerpack test campaign.  As mentioned in a prior email, one of the many benefits of a privately funded engine development is that we can make and implement decisions quickly. We made the decision to build these two new test cells as a team in a 10 minute discussion.  Less than three weeks later we were pouring concrete and now we have an operating pressure fed test cell 7 months later. Private funding and rapid decision making are two of the reasons why the BE-4 is the fastest path to eliminate U.S. dependence on the Russian-made RD-180.

[picture here]
Commissioned Preburner Test Facility

This new pressure fed facility is capable of supporting full scale preburner risk reduction.  If you look closely, you’ll see we already have the 14 inch diameter test article integrated into the facility ready for initial testing.  More on that as we have it.
 
We’re also finishing our mission planning for another flight of New Shepard, which will be our fourth flight with this vehicle.  One of the fundamental tenets of Blue Origin is that the safest vehicle is one that is robust and well understood.  Each successive mission affords us the opportunity to learn and improve our vehicles and their modeling.  We have stepwise expanded our flight envelope on the booster and crew capsule on every mission. On our most recent flight, we performed maneuvers on the crew capsule to help characterize its aerodynamics and reduce our model uncertainties. On this next mission, we’ll execute additional maneuvers on both the crew capsule and the booster to increase our vehicle characterization and modeling accuracy.
 
On this upcoming mission we also plan to stress the crew capsule by landing with an intentionally failed parachute, demonstrating our ability to safely handle that failure scenario.  It promises to be an exciting demonstration.  We’ll be sharing more with you about the upcoming mission as we have it.
 
Gradatim Ferociter!
 
Jeff Bezos

Offline sanman

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #89 on: 05/27/2016 01:41 AM »
SpaceNews has that as 1 of 3 parachutes intentionally failing, which seems a lot more plausible.

http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-preparing-to-land-new-shepard-with-a-bum-parachute-next-time/

Has SpaceX done anything like that so far, or is this a sign that Blue is focused towards achieving a "man-rating" of sorts?

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #90 on: 05/27/2016 06:26 AM »
Full text of the e-mail update below, the "planned crash" that The Verge reported is obviously just an idiotic clickbait headline, as stated above, they will intentionally fail 1 of 3 parachutes.

Quote from: Jeff Bezos
Back in March, we shared with you our efforts on building two new test cells to further support risk reduction testing on the BE-4.  We began the construction of these additional facilities in October last year and we’ve just commissioned the first of these cells last week.  This test cell is pressure fed and supports the development of the preburner start and ignition sequence timing that will be used on the upcoming full scale powerpack test campaign.  As mentioned in a prior email, one of the many benefits of a privately funded engine development is that we can make and implement decisions quickly. We made the decision to build these two new test cells as a team in a 10 minute discussion.  Less than three weeks later we were pouring concrete and now we have an operating pressure fed test cell 7 months later. Private funding and rapid decision making are two of the reasons why the BE-4 is the fastest path to eliminate U.S. dependence on the Russian-made RD-180.

[picture here]
Commissioned Preburner Test Facility

This new pressure fed facility is capable of supporting full scale preburner risk reduction.  If you look closely, you’ll see we already have the 14 inch diameter test article integrated into the facility ready for initial testing.  More on that as we have it.
 
We’re also finishing our mission planning for another flight of New Shepard, which will be our fourth flight with this vehicle.  One of the fundamental tenets of Blue Origin is that the safest vehicle is one that is robust and well understood.  Each successive mission affords us the opportunity to learn and improve our vehicles and their modeling.  We have stepwise expanded our flight envelope on the booster and crew capsule on every mission. On our most recent flight, we performed maneuvers on the crew capsule to help characterize its aerodynamics and reduce our model uncertainties. On this next mission, we’ll execute additional maneuvers on both the crew capsule and the booster to increase our vehicle characterization and modeling accuracy.
 
On this upcoming mission we also plan to stress the crew capsule by landing with an intentionally failed parachute, demonstrating our ability to safely handle that failure scenario.  It promises to be an exciting demonstration.  We’ll be sharing more with you about the upcoming mission as we have it.
 
Gradatim Ferociter!
 
Jeff Bezos

Which was made perfectly clear in the article so shoot them for jazzing up the headline a little.

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