Author Topic: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers  (Read 20898 times)

Offline mme

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Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« on: 03/09/2016 06:01 AM »
It looks like Blue Origin is going to start engaging the Media more.

Quote
Mr. Bezos said Blue Origin was quiet not necessarily to be secretive, but to avoid overpromising itself. “Space is really easy to overhype,” he said.

Lots of good tidbits in this article:

- They spent their first few years researching alternative approaches to chemical rockets.
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.
- Tests of the BE-4 coming later this year.
- More details coming later this year about their future orbital rocket.
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline leaflion

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #1 on: 03/09/2016 06:08 AM »
"Mr. Bezos said there would be an opportunity to watch a test flight of New Shepard in Texas."

Finally.

Offline Borklund

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #2 on: 03/09/2016 06:59 AM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #3 on: 03/09/2016 09:56 AM »
About Very Big Brother.

Quote
“It will not be a small vehicle, but it will be the smallest orbital vehicle we’ll build.”

Interesting quote.

Offline woods170

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #4 on: 03/09/2016 01:15 PM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

Offline thomson

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #5 on: 03/09/2016 01:36 PM »
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.
The old rule that was working well for SpaceShipTwo seems to be:

promised_launch_year = current_year + 2

Current year is the key here. It's 2018 in 2016, but it will be 2019 in 2017.

I'm looking forward to be proven wrong, though.

Offline A8-3

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #6 on: 03/09/2016 01:45 PM »
This article at Aviation Week is a bit more focused on the BE-4.

http://aviationweek.com/space/blue-origin-gears-be-4-engine-production
« Last Edit: 03/10/2016 09:22 AM by Chris Bergin »

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #7 on: 03/09/2016 02:11 PM »

- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

I have more confidence in Bezos hitting this target than others in this area. Plus maybe not as default cynical as some posters.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #8 on: 03/09/2016 03:24 PM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.
Bezo is not Branson or Musk. He is cautious with his predictions and only offers them when he is sure Blue can meet them.

The NS has flown successfully ( capsule) 3 times now, so a 2018 date for commercial operations is good bet.

Offline GreenShrike

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #9 on: 03/09/2016 04:21 PM »
Ars Technica has a write up of a factory tour. Lots of neat pictures of capsules under construction.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/behind-the-curtain-ars-goes-inside-blue-origins-secretive-rocket-factory/

There's apparently going to be more articles this week:

Quote
Ars will have more coverage on Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos later this week, including in-depth articles on the company’s space tourism plans and its founder's devotion to both reusability and opening space to millions of people.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2016 04:22 PM by GreenShrike »
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #10 on: 03/09/2016 08:35 PM »
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.

That is very interesting.
The minute self-made billionaires start making statements such as the one above: add (at least) two years.

Normally I'd agree with you, but don't you think that Blue Origin is a slightly different case here? We're talking about a vehicle that's already flown twice above the von Karman line in a form that is very similar to the one they'll fly tourists in. They're already in unmanned flight testing, and will be flying scientific payloads within the next 3-6 months. They're also building up enough vehicles (six tail numbers) that losing one in flight test won't delay them anywhere near as much as the SS2 incident did. Especially if it's booster recovery failure and not a loss-of-capsule failure. Most of the other invocations of the "we'll be flying people within 2yrs" we've seen over the past two decades have been by companies who were still designing/building their vehicle and/or still raising money. Only SS2 has claimed 2yrs while actually in flight test, and frankly I think New Shepard is a much better designed and simpler system. Is it the best approach for suborbital tourism? Probably not. But acting like Blue Origin and say XCOR are in the same category seems to be potentially overly cynical.

Of course I've been wrong so many times before on industry being this close, but this seems qualitatively different.

~Jon


Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #11 on: 03/09/2016 08:48 PM »
The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Star One

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #12 on: 03/09/2016 08:53 PM »

The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.

I have a lot of time for Bezos when it comes to space. I like his steady methodical approach and the fact that they haven't constantly driven the hype wagon unlike some of their competitors.

Online Lar

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #13 on: 03/09/2016 08:54 PM »

The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.

I have a lot of time for Bezos when it comes to space. I like his steady methodical approach and the fact that they haven't constantly driven the hype wagon unlike some of their competitors.

yes

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-differences-in-company-culture-between-Blue-Origin-SpaceX-and-Virgin-Galactic/answer/Larry-Pieniazek  (my answer to a question about culture of the three outfits)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #14 on: 03/09/2016 08:56 PM »
The other difference of course is that this is not far from pocket change for Bezos, so they should not lack for funds. Bezos has a far larger and more liquid fortune than Musk, who in turn is richer than Branson, I believe, although perhaps not as liquid.  Not new info but definitely supportive of Jon's thinking.
...however, we're starting to get into billions of dollars in investment to pull all these things off (New Shepard, multiple Cryogenic pump-fed rocket engines, launch pad, large new actors for full scale BE4 production, etc). New Shepard could be funded with Bezos' fun money, but the orbital stuff relies on real contracts with real customers or at least would require Bezos to sell off (or leverage) some Amazon stock. I think it's a good change because it forces Blue Origin to actually fly stuff.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #15 on: 03/09/2016 09:06 PM »
Today + 18 months is the standard for suborbital tourism. Today + 3 years is the standard for launching NASA astronauts to the ISS. Both are claims made consistently and it always "feels like for reals this time".

If you want a hint as to why Blue Origin won't be launching tourists in 2018, just read the rest of the article. They're already distracted by other things.

When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #16 on: 03/10/2016 12:55 AM »
NASA astronauts to ISS is now +18 months.

It's a miracle space tourism (with only 6 figures) is happening at all, frankly.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Borklund

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #17 on: 03/10/2016 07:43 AM »
If you want a hint as to why Blue Origin won't be launching tourists in 2018, just read the rest of the article. They're already distracted by other things.
Jeff Bezos' focus is clearly on the near term (BE-4, New Shepard) and not a million people living and working in space, you're reading way too much into articles that simply mentioned the bigger picture.

Offline Oli

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #18 on: 03/10/2016 08:47 AM »
From the article:

Quote
His argument was simple: Energy consumption has been rising at 2 or 3 percent a year. Even at that modest rate, within a few centuries, the energy usage would be equal to the energy produced by high-efficiency solar cells covering the entire surface of the planet. “We’ll be using all of the solar energy that impacts the Earth,” he said. “That’s an actual limit.”

Per capita energy consumption has been stagnating in the industrialized world since the late 70s. The growth of world-wide energy consumption is entirely driven by population and catch-up economic growth in developing countries. That won't last forever. Another century at worst. There are also alternatives to solar like wind, hydro or fusion.

Its depressing that space fans always have to come up with such flimsy arguments for expanding humanity into space.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2016 08:47 AM by Oli »

Online MattMason

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Re: Blue Origin - We will not be strangers
« Reply #19 on: 03/10/2016 12:56 PM »
It looks like Blue Origin is going to start engaging the Media more.

Quote
Mr. Bezos said Blue Origin was quiet not necessarily to be secretive, but to avoid overpromising itself. “Space is really easy to overhype,” he said.

Lots of good tidbits in this article:

- They spent their first few years researching alternative approaches to chemical rockets.
- First tourist flights "as soon as" 2018.
- Tests of the BE-4 coming later this year.
- More details coming later this year about their future orbital rocket.

Does anyone else get the sensation of receiving a Golden Ticket for entry into the secretive factory of an eccentric genius?

All that's missing are some Oompa Loompas.

That said, this is a good thing, as few businesses can do business with companies that are too secretive. And the article(s) clearly show that Blue Origin is more than just a billionaire hobbiest's dream.
« Last Edit: 03/10/2016 12:56 PM by MattMason »
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