Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016 (Read 15455 times)

Lar · « **on:** 01/04/2016 08:04 AM »

This is a companion poll to the number of flights poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0
Consult that poll for history, manifest predictions, etc....

For the purposes of this poll an "intact core returned" or "successfully landed first stage" means that the stage returned from boost and executed a landing in which it did not topple over, blow up, strike on impact, or disintegrate. There has to be a picture of the stage standing erect and at rest. If it immediately topples after that, or is damaged in handling it still counts. If SpaceX reuses a stage and lands it again, each successful landing of the stage counts as a returned core.

The landing can be RTLS or on an ASDS or some as yet unspecified thing (I'll modify this if that happens)

Note that a Falcon Heavy has 3 cores. It's possible that 0, 1, 2, or 3 could be returned successfully. it's possible that some do a RTLS and some land on an ASDS. Each core that landed successfully counts as one core. Each core expended, whether by choice, or by accident, or that fails to remain upright and stationary long enough to get a picture, counts as zero.

Just as with the number of flights poll, suborbital tests do not count. Therefore, so a launch abort test would not count, so would a first stage only launch test... Nor would tests at Spaceport America if that comes to pass... the stage has to be one that participated in a mission intended to be orbital. Whether the mission itself is a success doesn't matter. The second stage can blow up one second after MECO and as long as the first stage gets home, it counts. (For FH if the center core blows up on separation, but the side cores return, that's 2 cores returned)

Hopefully that makes things clear. You may not agree with my definitions or wish they were different but these are the ones being used so take that into account.

Dante80 · « **Reply #1 on:** 01/04/2016 08:08 AM »

I went with four. A little less than 50% (I think they will launch 9 times this year).

NovaSilisko · « **Reply #2 on:** 01/04/2016 08:09 AM »

Hmmmm. I voted for 10 launches in the other poll, so I'm going for 5 successful core returns. I think there are still some bugs that will need to be worked out, especially on ASDS landings. I expect at least a few earth-shattering kabooms this year.

Lar · « **Reply #3 on:** 01/04/2016 08:11 AM »

I voted 12 in the other poll and I think there's a good chance they will try for all and get 2/3 so I voted 8. Not much more scientific than that.

(however it makes me the BIG optimist so far

)

I figured unlike the other poll I didn't have to go beyond 15 cores... PM me if you think I should have went higher before "or more")

MikeAtkinson · « **Reply #4 on:** 01/04/2016 08:16 AM »

To make my vote consistent with my 23 prediction for launches I went for 15+

QuantumG · « **Reply #5 on:** 01/04/2016 08:33 AM »

Shouldn't you be all for counting attempts? After all, how do you define "intact"? :trollface:

mme · « **Reply #6 on:** 01/04/2016 08:56 AM »

I voted 6 but really have no good reason.

FinalFrontier · « **Reply #7 on:** 01/04/2016 09:03 AM »

Voted 7. Expect 5 however depending on delta V reqs for various flights. Maybe lower even.

Kaputnik · « **Reply #8 on:** 01/04/2016 10:17 AM »

Quote from: QuantumG on 01/04/2016 08:33 AM

Shouldn't you be all for counting attempts? After all, how do you define "intact"? :trollface:

Geez will you let it go.

How about 'intact' means it still looks like a rocket, so is sat on its own four legs with a superficially intact tankage structure on top, and remains that way long enough for the recovery crews to come and hook the crane up.
Damage to individual components such as engines or grid fins do not make a stage non-intact.

I will eat crow if this definition proves insufficiently detailed.

vapour_nudge · « **Reply #9 on:** 01/04/2016 10:34 AM »

3 recoveries from 9 launches. Feasible?

The Amazing Catstronaut · « **Reply #10 on:** 01/04/2016 11:13 AM »

Nine! I want to be right, therefore, I am right.

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #11 on:** 01/04/2016 11:44 AM »

Wait, does a FH count for 3?

I voted 6, but a fully reuse able FH I think it's 8-9.

Poole Amateur · « **Reply #12 on:** 01/04/2016 11:46 AM »

Stuck my finger in the air and came up with a completely unscientific guess of 12 launches and 6 recoveries.

Would be very happy to find I have been pessimistic...on both numbers!

majormajor42 · « **Reply #13 on:** 01/04/2016 12:58 PM »

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 01/04/2016 11:44 AM

Wait, does a FH count for 3?

I voted 6, but a fully reuse able FH I think it's 8-9.

Yes, as many of the three that land.

From the total # of flights thread:

Quote from: QuantumG on 12/31/2015 02:43 AM

It is ridiculous that we'd count a Falcon Heavy launch with a mass simulator, but at least it'd be an orbital flight.

So it might be 4 points! One for launch and three for landing

I guessed 9.

cscott · « **Reply #14 on:** 01/04/2016 01:35 PM »

I agree with @kaputnik's definition of "intact". Basically, if it stays standing on four feet long enough to hook the crane up, it's intact.

In the launch attempts poll, I've been going with the "50% more than last year" rule, which led me to predict 11 launches. That rule didn't seem to apply here: surely they will land more than 1.5 cores. I'm going to be bold and predict 11 landings. That's "almost 100%" -- you can miss two F9FT launches and make it up by recovering all three cores of the FH.

Mader Levap · « **Reply #15 on:** 01/04/2016 01:40 PM »

Voted six (from nine launches that will happen in 2016 imo). Call me optimist... I don't think they will have many problem with RTLS, assuming successful launch. Maybe some gremlin there and here, and there is still unproven drone ship landing.

About FH: I would count each core separately. It is not launch where whole shebang go up together. Every core from FH returns back on their own. Since I don't think FH will launch in 2016, didn't count them in number above.

jongoff · « **Reply #16 on:** 01/04/2016 02:33 PM »

I voted 4, but only voted for 10 launches this year, so I'm probably on the optimistic side in this poll. I think they'll continue having some issues with ASDS landings, but wouldn't be surprised (and would be very happy) if they got at least one successful ASDS landing before the end of the year.

tleski · « **Reply #17 on:** 01/04/2016 03:56 PM »

Quote from: cscott on 01/04/2016 01:35 PM

I agree with @kaputnik's definition of "intact". Basically, if it stays standing on four feet long enough to hook the crane up, it's intact.

I like this definition. I think we should count cores which don't topple immediately after landing but that's just me.

Voted for 5, which is approx. 50% of the 11 successful launches for which I voted in the other poll. As many people here I am hoping I am wrong and it will be many more but as we know anything can happen.

HIP2BSQRE · « **Reply #18 on:** 01/04/2016 04:14 PM »

Quote from: jongoff on 01/04/2016 02:33 PM

I voted 4, but only voted for 10 launches this year, so I'm probably on the optimistic side in this poll. I think they'll continue having some issues with ASDS landings, but wouldn't be surprised (and would be very happy) if they got at least one successful ASDS landing before the end of the year.

What is harder -- RTLS or ASDS landing and why? SpaceX has shown that they hit very close to center of the LZ if everything works well.

tleski · « **Reply #19 on:** 01/04/2016 04:52 PM »

Quote from: HIP2BSQRE on 01/04/2016 04:14 PM

Quote from: jongoff on 01/04/2016 02:33 PM
I voted 4, but only voted for 10 launches this year, so I'm probably on the optimistic side in this poll. I think they'll continue having some issues with ASDS landings, but wouldn't be surprised (and would be very happy) if they got at least one successful ASDS landing before the end of the year.

What is harder -- RTLS or ASDS landing and why? SpaceX has shown that they hit very close to center of the LZ if everything works well.

SpaceX cannot control weather (yet

), so they may expend some stages due to this factor for ASDS bargings. Much less likely for RTLS in my opinion.

Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2016?

Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016 (Read 15455 times)