Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2016?

None, that was a fluke
1 (0.4%)
1
1 (0.4%)
2
2 (0.8%)
3
17 (6.6%)
4
27 (10.4%)
5
44 (17%)
6
48 (18.5%)
7
24 (9.3%)
8
26 (10%)
9
13 (5%)
10
20 (7.7%)
11
4 (1.5%)
12
17 (6.6%)
13
2 (0.8%)
14
1 (0.4%)
15 or more
12 (4.6%)

Total Members Voted: 259

Voting closed: 01/24/2016 08:04 AM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016  (Read 11221 times)

Offline shm6666

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #80 on: 01/19/2016 03:25 PM »
I did vote 8. Two miss but a complet heavy.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #81 on: 01/19/2016 04:12 PM »
Elon votes for 70% success rate (he must be looking at a different poll, I didn't see that option).

Nah. Just take 70% from the current number of manifested cores for this year accounting to the NSF US launch thread. Which is 31 cores by my count. So 31 * 0.7 = 21.7, therefore rounding it to 21 intact core if all the manifested cores takes flight.

More realistic, according to Shotwell in an interview that she expect 14 flights for this year. So 13 F9 plus the FH demo give us 16 manifested cores for 2016. So 16 * 0.7 = 11.2, therefore rounding it to 11 intact cores.

So end my speculation.  :)

Offline nadreck

Elon votes for 70% success rate (he must be looking at a different poll, I didn't see that option).

I saw that option and voted 60%:

I said 6, I voted 18 launches, I didn't specify elsewhere, but I expect probably 10 of those 18 launches will attempt recovery and that 4 fail
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline rickl

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #83 on: 01/20/2016 05:32 AM »
I picked 4, which is probably on the pessimistic side.  There will be some bugs that still need to be worked out, and I figure there will be some launches where they will need maximum performance and can't attempt a landing.
Nominal now means "Yeehah!!"

Offline Hotblack Desiato

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #84 on: 01/20/2016 09:02 AM »
I voted an optimistic 15+

First, they have a few FH in the manifest. Their payload should be light enough to allow 3x RTLS, or at least 2x RTLS + 1 barge.

And then, they have to start beating launches out of one stage, test it until it breaks. Either with working US and a not yet manifested payload (dragonlab? spamming LEO with cubesats?) or with US mass simulators. Each testflight (at least those with real US) would count as a returned core.

Launches that require an expendable F9FT will get reassigned to FH.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #85 on: 12/12/2016 06:23 PM »
Looks like the final answer was 5 per http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40231.0

Of those 4 were to OCISLY and one was RTLS... 

JRTI hasn't had a winner yet and was 0 for 1 for the year
OCISLY was 4 for 6
RTLS was 1 for 1
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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