Poll

How many successful landings of F9 first stages (cores) will SpaceX have in 2016?

None, that was a fluke
1 (0.4%)
1
1 (0.4%)
2
2 (0.8%)
3
17 (6.6%)
4
27 (10.4%)
5
44 (17%)
6
48 (18.5%)
7
24 (9.3%)
8
26 (10%)
9
13 (5%)
10
20 (7.7%)
11
4 (1.5%)
12
17 (6.6%)
13
2 (0.8%)
14
1 (0.4%)
15 or more
12 (4.6%)

Total Members Voted: 259

Voting closed: 01/24/2016 08:04 AM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016  (Read 13014 times)

Offline Rebel44

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #60 on: 01/11/2016 10:45 AM »
14 launches and 6 recovered cores

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #61 on: 01/13/2016 09:26 PM »
voted 10 launches, and 13 recoveries just cause I'm being contrarian  :o
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Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #62 on: 01/14/2016 07:26 AM »
I voted 9.   Based on ~13 launches.

I think weather or launch profile will probably keep a few cores from being recovered, but otherwise I'm optimistic.  The wildcard could be FH, esp. if they press to get that into service for customers.

I started imagining if they pulled a hat trick on their FH demo.  That would be something.  As excited as everyone was with the recent landing, seeing a successful FH launch and watching 2 cores landing live at the cape, then getting images shortly thereafter of the 3rd sitting all happy on the barge.  Wouldn't that make a statement.
Can someone work the numbers for me, for a typical FH flight profile, without crossfeed, would the side cores land first (given they have to boost back) or would the center core land first (longer flight time before a reentry burn but no flight back)

I think WITH crossfeed, the side cores land first... but without?
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline kch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #63 on: 01/14/2016 07:48 AM »
voted 10 launches, and 13 recoveries just cause I'm being contrarian  :o

Nothing inconsistent there -- eight F9s, two FHs, one core not recovered.  Makes sense to me.  :)

Offline sdsds

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #64 on: 01/18/2016 05:38 AM »
So would someone who understands the definition used for this poll explain whether Jason-3 counts as an intact core returned in 2016?
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Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #65 on: 01/18/2016 08:19 AM »
So would someone who understands the definition used for this poll explain whether Jason-3 counts as an intact core returned in 2016?
Does not count. (since I wrote the definition, hopefully I understand it :) )

It was not stationary long enough to get a picture, since it started falling over as soon as the legs were on deck.  if the leg had held for a few seconds and then collapsed for some other reason (not a lock failure) it would have been. But it wasn't stationary... here's the key phrase "There has to be a picture of the stage standing erect and at rest." .. it wasn't at rest, it was very gradually falling over from the second it touched down...

OF COURSE the very first landing in 2016 is one that is a perfect edge case for the definition! (shakes fist in general direction of Hawthorne)
« Last Edit: 01/18/2016 08:22 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #66 on: 01/18/2016 08:30 AM »
Lar- why do you prefer that definition? Seems to have potential for ambiguity. My suggestion was that the stage ought to be secured, e.g. crane hooked on or chains bolting it to the deck (or whatever turns out to be the case)- it's a bit more black and white then.
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Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #67 on: 01/18/2016 10:36 AM »
Lar- why do you prefer that definition? Seems to have potential for ambiguity. My suggestion was that the stage ought to be secured, e.g. crane hooked on or chains bolting it to the deck (or whatever turns out to be the case)- it's a bit more black and white then.

If he wrote that, then the dock crane would have fallen on it.

[Sorry Lar, you're a jinx.]

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #68 on: 01/18/2016 04:29 PM »
I, too, disagree with the moderator. Down with Lar!

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Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #69 on: 01/18/2016 04:35 PM »
Whoa! I thought I was everyone's favorite mod[1]. Shocking denouement!

My thinking on polls is that once you post a definition, you're pretty much stuck with it. Hence my reluctance to change the number of launches definition either, other than to tighten up any very minor loose edges. (how's that for a split metaphor?)

Maybe we should have discussed it first and reached a consensus... but there wasn't time, and people voted based on this definition already. if we change it now, that's not fair to them, I don't think, as it might mean they wanted to change their vote,  but can't unless we reset.... Nor is it entirely practical to reset the poll after changing the definition, it might disenfranchise people who already voted and don't have time to vote again.

Is there anyone here who thinks Jason3 should have been counted a success? This definition (barely) excludes it.

We may need an expose article on the main page... "shocking moderator malfeasance" is my working headline...

1 - except for Chris, but he doesn't count, he's not just a mod...
« Last Edit: 01/18/2016 04:39 PM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline nadreck

Whoa! I thought I was everyone's favorite mod[1]. Shocking denouement!

My thinking on polls is that once you post a definition, you're pretty much stuck with it. Hence my reluctance to change the number of launches definition either, other than to tighten up any very minor loose edges. (how's that for a split metaphor?)

Maybe we should have discussed it first and reached a consensus... but there wasn't time, and people voted based on this definition already. if we change it now, that's not fair to them, I don't think, as it might mean they wanted to change their vote. Nor is it entirelypractical to reset the poll after changing the definition, it might disenfranchise people who already voted and don't have time to vote again.

Is there anyone here who thinks Jason3 should have been counted a success? This definition (barely) excludes it.

1 - except for Chris, but he doesn't count, he's not just a mod...

Lar as someone who creates polls here, I believe it is the person who creates the poll that sets the rules and then arbitrates the boundary cases. You do a good job and are fair. Personally I don't think it should count as a successful recovery either by your definition or generically, but since it is your poll it is your interpretation that caries the most weight with me.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline Krevsin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #71 on: 01/18/2016 04:40 PM »
Does Jason 3 count as at least half of a successful stage landing?  ;D

Online Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #72 on: 01/18/2016 04:44 PM »
Does Jason 3 count as at least half of a successful stage landing?  ;D

(in deep, echoey voice) No.  I have spoken. Be on about your business, mortals, and pray that I don't start another poll.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline woods170

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #73 on: 01/18/2016 05:35 PM »
Does Jason 3 count as at least half of a successful stage landing?  ;D

(in deep, echoey voice) No.  I have spoken. Be on about your business, mortals, and pray that I don't start another poll.
Heaven forbid!  :)

Offline pippin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #74 on: 01/18/2016 05:51 PM »
3.
Looks like it's harder than anticipated and I don't see FH fly this year.

Online cscott

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #75 on: 01/19/2016 12:56 AM »
Does Jason 3 count as at least half of a successful stage landing?  ;D
It would be 3/4 of a successful landing, since three of the four legs locked.

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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #76 on: 01/19/2016 01:48 AM »
Stand by my post elsewhere this was a successful landing followed by a very rough taxi.
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Offline Lee Jay

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #77 on: 01/19/2016 01:58 AM »
Stand by my post elsewhere this was a successful landing followed by a very rough taxi.

If you don't get to use the craft again, it's not a good landing.

Online cscott

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #78 on: 01/19/2016 06:00 AM »
If you don't get to use the craft again, it was a terrible taxi!

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX intact cores returned in 2016
« Reply #79 on: 01/19/2016 08:04 AM »
Elon votes for 70% success rate (he must be looking at a different poll, I didn't see that option).
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