Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2016

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.2%)
2
2 (0.5%)
3
0 (0%)
4
2 (0.5%)
5
2 (0.5%)
6
6 (1.4%)
7
4 (0.9%)
8
16 (3.7%)
9
20 (4.6%)
10
51 (11.8%)
11
45 (10.4%)
12
84 (19.4%)
13
33 (7.6%)
14
62 (14.3%)
15
39 (9%)
16
31 (7.1%)
17
12 (2.8%)
18
7 (1.6%)
19
1 (0.2%)
20
7 (1.6%)
21-25
8 (1.8%)
26-30
1 (0.2%)
31-35
0 (0%)
More than 35!!
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 434

Voting closed: 01/19/2016 05:45 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016  (Read 45604 times)

Online SweetWater

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #80 on: 12/26/2015 08:31 AM »
I voted 14. The upgrades for F9 Full Thrust should (hopefully) bring an end to the seemingly-constant fiddling with the rocket and let them work through their manifest, and SpaceX has demonstrated an ability to launch about once a month from the same pad in the past. One launch out of SLC-40 every 4 to 6 weeks plus the odd launch out of Vandenberg would seem to make 14 entirely doable.

Personally, I don't expect 39A to play a big role in their launch tempo in the coming year, as I expect it will be occupied with fitting out of the pad and inspection, testing, and hot firing of the ORBCOMM-2 first stage in the coming months, followed by several months of more of the same with the first Falcon Heavy vehicle. I don't know whether I'd bet on Falcon Heavy getting up in 2016 or not.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #81 on: 12/26/2015 04:43 PM »
Why so many people votes more than even Musk himself (well known for overoptimistic predictions) says? ::) These votes have 0% chance of happening.
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Offline nadreck

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #82 on: 12/26/2015 05:37 PM »
Why so many people votes more than even Musk himself (well known for overoptimistic predictions) says? ::) These votes have 0% chance of happening.

What I remember is Musk saying many more than 12 how much is many?
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #83 on: 12/26/2015 06:21 PM »
I voted 10 based on a limited number of cores due to potential discoveries that slow down production. Would like to see > 20 but don't see that happening until production is up and cores reused.
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Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #84 on: 12/28/2015 07:26 PM »
The distribution looks like a standard bell curve with a mean and median the same at a value of 12. Thats is not to say that that is the correct value only time will tell but the voting is revolving around the "dozen or so" value given by Musk in the latest interviews.

At least:
1 CC
4 CRS
1 FH Demo
Jason 3
SES-9

= 7

Add to that
2 SES-10 & 11
2 JSAT
Mass smallsat despenser
2 Iridium
ES'HAILSAT
SPACECOM
KOREASAT
THIACOM

+ 11 = 18

There is pressure to launch 2 more FH in 2016 for the 3 needed to start the AF certification. Candidates are:
VIASAT
DSX (another smallsat mass dispenser but larger than the one on F9)

+2 = 20 :-*

Some will slip into 2017. I voted 16 believing that at least 4 will slip. For a value of 12 a CRS, both FH, and one of the commercial launches also slip into 2017. A total of 8 payloads slipping into 2017 out of a total scheduled for 2016 of 20.

A value greater than 12 may be limited by available boosters. Just 1st stage cores that 12 launches is 14 1st stages and 12 2nd. For a value of 16 that includes 2 more FH launches that is 22 1st stage cores and 16 2nd. That may be outside of SpaceX capability right now to manufacture.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #85 on: 12/29/2015 02:39 AM »
The distribution looks like a standard bell curve with a mean and median the same at a value of 12. Thats is not to say that that is the correct value only time will tell but the voting is revolving around the "dozen or so" value given by Musk in the latest interviews.

At least:
1 CC
4 CRS
1 FH Demo
Jason 3
SES-9

= 7


That would be 8.

Offline Jarnis

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #86 on: 12/29/2015 10:29 AM »
16. They have a new pad at the cape, that has to start showing in the launch rate at some point in 2016.

(Had CRS-7 not gone Kerbal they would have probably made 12 this year, and yes I'm aware that my vote of 16 kinda implies that there are no oopsies in 2016. Optimism, perhaps?)

Online ZachS09

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #87 on: 12/30/2015 05:23 AM »
I vote for 11 possible launches in 2016 because who knows? Maybe a handful of delays could push one or two into the next year.
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #88 on: 12/30/2015 09:56 AM »
16. They have a new pad at the cape, that has to start showing in the launch rate at some point in 2016.

(Had CRS-7 not gone Kerbal they would have probably made 12 this year, and yes I'm aware that my vote of 16 kinda implies that there are no oopsies in 2016. Optimism, perhaps?)

My thoughts exactly.. launches from 39A should kick in at some point late in 2016.

They have a lot of catching up to do with their manifest and I am quite confident that they did all humanly possible in the past 6 months to iron out all the known glitches.. I might be over optimistic, but I think we'll see much less technical scrubs than before despite of the many changes in the rocket..

So my vote is on 16.

Offline SpacemanInSPACE

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #89 on: 12/30/2015 04:23 PM »
Voted 10. I guessed 10 last year but missed the voting period.

I feel 10 assumes nothing major goes wrong but still considers weather delays, and a delay in flight rate in preparation for the Falcon heavy demo.

Of course I'm hoping its 50+ due to multiple re-flown boosters, early start of NASA crew operational flights, and the grand opening of the Bigelow space hotel with initial anchor tenants.  ::)
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Offline Llian Rhydderch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #90 on: 12/30/2015 04:53 PM »
I optimistically voted 15, based on early planned launch cadence (3 in 5 weeks; therefore they think they can achieve that cycle time, at least at times), demonstrated ability to do sub-two-week turnarounds in the past, large launch manifest, their record of doing averaging a launch a month in the first six months of 2015, and (with LC 39A) three launch sites up and running for part of this coming year.  The optimism is a presumption in my estimate is no LOM/RTF this year.

I hope I am way short, and that the SpaceX team demonstrates the ability to reliably hit a faster cadence on multiple periods this coming year.


Edit:  Full disclosure, and to provide context with last year's vote:  I voted 11 for 2015, on 2014-12-22 in thread reply #110 on that thread.
« Last Edit: 12/30/2015 05:16 PM by Llian Rhydderch »
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Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #91 on: 12/31/2015 12:39 AM »
The distribution looks like a standard bell curve with a mean and median the same at a value of 12. Thats is not to say that that is the correct value only time will tell but the voting is revolving around the "dozen or so" value given by Musk in the latest interviews.

At least:
1 CC
4 CRS
1 FH Demo
Jason 3
SES-9

= 7


That would be 8.
OOPS :o
Then its 8:19:21 with 16 being 5 slip into 2017, or for 12, 9 slip into 2017.

Offline Joffan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #92 on: 12/31/2015 01:03 AM »
I'm feeling lucky, so voted 13.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #93 on: 12/31/2015 02:38 AM »
If SpaceX reuse a Falcon 9 core. Would it need a payload? Or attempted boost-forward ASDS landing test with a mass simulator on top. While validating the reuse concept. After all some customer already pay for the core previously.

For the purposes of this thread. It means more possible flights than available payloads. SpaceX might do more than one test. Maybe even with the same core.

Online QuantumG

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #94 on: 12/31/2015 02:43 AM »
Boost-forward wouldn't be an (attempted) orbital flight, so it's irrelevant. It is ridiculous that we'd count a Falcon Heavy launch with a mass simulator, but at least it'd be an orbital flight.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #95 on: 12/31/2015 02:53 AM »
Boost-forward wouldn't be an (attempted) orbital flight, so it's irrelevant. It is ridiculous that we'd count a Falcon Heavy launch with a mass simulator, but at least it'd be an orbital flight.

But the mass simulator will be orbital, if barely with a few GoPros. After all you couldn't land the core with it.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #96 on: 01/03/2016 11:52 PM »
Wanted to pick 12 but went crazy with 13.

1 - FH
2 - from VAFB
10 from SLC 40

Reasoning:
FH - A successful FH launch by end of calendar year would be a massive success, a second FH launch would likely require recovery and reuse of the 3 cores.  Seems
VAFB - 3 on the books, 1 slides to '17
SLC 40 -  With ISS and range coordination, weather, payload, vehicle and pad issues I think 10 launches for SLC 40 is near max.  Luck and re-using cores needed to exceed 10.

Edit: I hope the 16ers are correct.  What an increase and exciting year that would be.  At that rate I think having payloads ready in time becomes an issue.  The lag between vehicle ready and processed payload ready for matting becomes a logistical issue.
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 03:51 AM by wannamoonbase »
Excited to be finally into the first Falcon Heavy flow, we are getting so close!

Offline meekGee

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #97 on: 01/04/2016 12:24 AM »
This is a compound prediction, really.

First:  Will there be failure or some less serious anomaly that sets them back.
Second:  If all is well, how many launches can they do per year.

I'm voting 16 assuming all will be well.
Which is a tad risky, since SSFT F9 is just an infant.
But still, 16.
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Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #98 on: 01/04/2016 05:01 AM »
Now that the Full Thrust upgrade is done they should be able to concentrate on getting the launch pace up. They have at least two pads with launches planned this year so they don't need to get all the launches from a single pad. I voted 13.

Offline Dante80

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2016
« Reply #99 on: 01/04/2016 07:57 AM »
I voted 9.

This will be a pretty hectic year for SpaceX. I assume a number of delays that will have to do with CC and FH. These would somewhat push the schedule for the pads assigned to them.

Moreover, any returned core in 2016 missions will add some delay to the next launch imo.

I hope that everything goes well.

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