Poll

Which company(ies) will win ISS resupply contracts under Commercial Resupply Services 2?

SpaceX only
3 (1.9%)
SNC only
0 (0%)
Orbital ATK only
0 (0%)
LM only
0 (0%)
Boeing only
0 (0%)
SpaceX & SNC only
19 (12.3%)
SpaceX & Orbital ATK only
61 (39.4%)
SpaceX & LM only
4 (2.6%)
SpaceX & Boeing only
3 (1.9%)
SNC & Orbital ATK only
2 (1.3%)
SNC & LM only
0 (0%)
SNC & Boeing only
0 (0%)
Orbital ATK & LM only
1 (0.6%)
Orbital ATK & Boeing only
0 (0%)
LM & Boeing only
1 (0.6%)
SpaceX, SNC & Orbital ATK only
55 (35.5%)
SpaceX, SNC & LM only
0 (0%)
SpaceX, SNC & Boeing only
0 (0%)
SpaceX, Orbital ATK & LM only
3 (1.9%)
SpaceX, Orbital ATK & Boeing only
2 (1.3%)
SpaceX, LM & Boeing only
0 (0%)
SNC, Orbital ATK & LM only
0 (0%)
SNC, Orbital ATK & Boeing only
0 (0%)
SNC, LM & Boeing only
0 (0%)
Orbital ATK, LM & Boeing only
0 (0%)
Other scenario (e.g., more than 3 winners, no winners at all, at least on winner not named above; please specify)
1 (0.6%)

Total Members Voted: 155

Voting closed: 12/31/2015 06:40 pm


Author Topic: POLL: CRS-2 Winners  (Read 13630 times)

Offline Proponent

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POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« on: 11/09/2015 06:40 pm »
Which company or companies will win awards equivalent to at least 10% of the total amount awarded under Commercial Resupply Services 2?

Everybody is encouraged to accompany each vote with a rationale.  Once cast, votes may be altered.

The poll may close early if an announcement appears imminent.

EDIT:  I thought about removing both Boeing and LM from the options, as we've seen reports to the effect that they've been eliminated.  To my knowledge, though, there's been nothing officlal, so I've left them in.  If someone provides firm information that a company has been eliminated, I'll drop it.  Changed "vote" -> "votes" in 3rd sentence.
« Last Edit: 12/08/2015 01:38 am by Lar »

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #1 on: 11/09/2015 06:55 pm »
1st vote!!! was I just so well timed, or does having a POLLS separate section reduce the views on these things.

I voted "SpaceX and Orbital only' because I think they will be going with the lower risk incumbents from CRS1 to preserve some multiple launcher capability without having to do too much development in the supply contract.
If they didn't need multiple vehicles and vendors, SpaceX could walk away with the whole thing, but that kind of goes against the whole commercial competition theme.

Developing a third vendor SNC at this point with DreamChaser I believe will be too cost prohibitive after not awarding $$$ in the manned competition.


edit: I thought they already announced Boeing was eliminated from the competition so those choices should be removed, allowing the folks that voted for them to re-vote.
« Last Edit: 11/09/2015 06:57 pm by CraigLieb »
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Offline arachnitect

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #2 on: 11/09/2015 07:35 pm »
I voted "SpaceX & Orbital ATK only"

The incumbents have a huge advantage. They can offer lowest total cost, most kg./$, lowest development risk.

The two things they have trouble with are meeting NASA's goal of 4 or 5 flights, and lack of "accelerated return."

I believe only the following scenarios are possible:

1. Spacex + OrbATK
2. Spacex + SNC
3. Spacex + LM
4. Spacex + OrbATK + SNC

If you make a few reasonable assumptions, those are the only choices that meet NASA's requirements and budget.

Offline Hauerg

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #3 on: 11/09/2015 07:49 pm »
SpaceX + ATK:
NASA cannot avoid SpaceX. (price, pressurized+unpressurized, downmass)
SNC: I'd like to see them fly, but maybe too risky: If they lose an orbiter ....
Boeing and LM are too expensive.

Offline Todd Martin

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #4 on: 11/09/2015 08:24 pm »
SpaceX + SNC

NASA cannot avoid SpaceX.  ditto that.
SNC:  Their proposal has downmass + pressurized disposal while Orbital/ATK only has disposal.  I believe SNC is willing to offer a lower price than Orbital/ATK and the risk of a DC related failure (which is pretty much past CDR for carrying crew) is less than a newly engined Antares launch vehicle that has never flown.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #5 on: 11/09/2015 09:04 pm »
SpaceX + SNC

NASA cannot avoid SpaceX.  ditto that.
SNC:  Their proposal has downmass + pressurized disposal while Orbital/ATK only has disposal.  I believe SNC is willing to offer a lower price than Orbital/ATK and the risk of a DC related failure (which is pretty much past CDR for carrying crew) is less than a newly engined Antares launch vehicle that has never flown.
I came to a similar conclusion.

Spacex is so low cost and has down mass they can't be avoided while LM and Boeing are too expensive which leaves SNC and OrbATK.

OrbATK has a proven vehicle but SNC might actually be cheaper per ton of payload and offers back up down mass to Dragon.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #6 on: 11/09/2015 09:29 pm »
Dreamchaser is also, more-or-less, the winged ACRV which NASA wanted. Get some unmanned re-entries and landings under Sierra's belt, launch it unmanned and keep it quiescent on-orbit, gradually being filled up with junk but always available to get the guys home without the potentially damaging effects of a sticky day on a Soyuz.

Somebody may be thinking out of the box at NASA...

Online Chris Bergin

Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #7 on: 11/09/2015 11:20 pm »
I went with SpaceX, ATK Orbital and SNC (yeah, that's be SpaceX half, and 25 percent to the other two). I'm thinking they will have learnt more about redundancy requirements and I love Dream Chaser, basically ;D

Just guessing on my part, of course.
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Offline deadman719

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #8 on: 11/09/2015 11:25 pm »
I voted SpaceX, OrbATK, & SNC. The rationale is as follows:

SpaceX provides up/down mass along with un-pressurized up mass. It is a proven vehicle.

OrbATK provides up mass and disposal. It is also a proven vehicle.

SNC provides up/down mass and disposal. However; the main reason I believe it will be chosen is in addition to the mission requirements, it provides a back-up to OrbATK. 

Although Cygnus is a capable vehicle, the launcher's first stage is being built in a country whose industrial capacity may be stressed. In the event the current first stage becomes unavailable, it could find a ride on Atlas with a probable cost increase. I think this makes OrbATK high risk for CRS-2. 
 
In the event only two providers are chosen, I believe it will be SpaceX and SNC.

Rob

Offline MattMason

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #9 on: 11/10/2015 02:41 am »
I took SpaceX, Orbital and SNC.

The first two have their own launch vehicles and offer unpressurized, downmass or high-volume cargo transport. SNC keeps a check going to Boeing/Lockheed (as ULA) while adding a backup to downmass options. Everybody wins!
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Offline Darkseraph

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #10 on: 11/10/2015 03:02 am »
I picked SpaceX and Orbital, which is not my preference, but seems realistic. They are proven and don't need to engage in expensive or time consuming hardware development. The previous programs they won contract for will have brought down the cost they can bid at compared to anyone else.

My own preference would be either SpaceX+Lockheed or Sierra Nevada + Lockheed.

I really like the Jupiter-Exoliner concept because it can serve as a proving ground for reuse of in space hardware.
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #11 on: 11/10/2015 03:30 am »
I picked SpaceX and Orbital, which is not my preference, but seems realistic. They are proven and don't need to engage in expensive or time consuming hardware development. The previous programs they won contract for will have brought down the cost they can bid at compared to anyone else.

My own preference would be either SpaceX+Lockheed or Sierra Nevada + Lockheed.

I really like the Jupiter-Exoliner concept because it can serve as a proving ground for reuse of in space hardware.
I'd say Orbital building a new rocket qualifies as serious development.
« Last Edit: 11/10/2015 03:31 am by Nomadd »
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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #12 on: 11/10/2015 03:47 am »
I voted SpaceX, OrbATK, & SNC.

Me too. And like Chris I'll predict 50% (or more!) of the dollar value goes to SpaceX.

Quote
The rationale is as follows:

SpaceX provides up/down mass along with un-pressurized up mass. It is a proven vehicle.

OrbATK provides up mass and disposal. It is also a proven vehicle.

SNC provides up/down mass and disposal. However; the main reason I believe it will be chosen is in addition to the mission requirements, it provides a back-up to OrbATK. 

I would say the main reason is that SNC provides "dissimilar redundancy" for both the other two.

I further predict Orbital/ATK will get the lowest dollar value award of the three.
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Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #13 on: 11/10/2015 05:53 am »
I voted SpaceX, OrbATK, & SNC.

Me too. And like Chris I'll predict 50% (or more!) of the dollar value goes to SpaceX.

Quote
The rationale is as follows:

SpaceX provides up/down mass along with un-pressurized up mass. It is a proven vehicle.

OrbATK provides up mass and disposal. It is also a proven vehicle.

SNC provides up/down mass and disposal. However; the main reason I believe it will be chosen is in addition to the mission requirements, it provides a back-up to OrbATK. 

I would say the main reason is that SNC provides "dissimilar redundancy" for both the other two.

I further predict Orbital/ATK will get the lowest dollar value award of the three.

Same vote, for exactly the same rationale.  And, like Chris, I really love the Dream Chaser.  I'd love to see SNC given the chance to fully develop it.  (I think it's a fixation I can trace back to the end of the film "Marooned"...)
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #14 on: 11/10/2015 10:52 am »
Barring failure of Falcon 9's return to flight, I don't see how SpaceX can lose: it's got downmass, track record and, uniquely, no dependence on Russian engines.

Given the twin failures suffered by CRS-1 suppliers, I don't see how there could be less than two contracts awarded.  So it's got to be SpaceX plus one or two others.

If I take seriously the rumors that LM and Boeing are out -- and that is an if -- then it's got to be one or both of Orbital ATK and SNC.  Given its spotty track record and lack of downmass, and reliance on untried engines, Orbital ATK will have to offer a good price and will be in a position to do so, since it's already developed the hardware.  So maybe that leaves room for SNC to get some sort of award as well.  So I'll vote SpaceX, Orbital ATK and SNC.

Relying on rumors of Boeing's and Lockheed's demises is, of course, risky.  Of the two, I would think LM's proposal, though attractive in principle, likely expensive to develop.  Boeing is not a low-cost shop, but the twin CRS-1 failures probably put something of a premium on reliability, which Boeing seems to be able to claim even if it's not yet flown any commercial-crew or -cargo hardware.  Hence, my second guess would be a combination of SpaceX and Boeing, but I get only one vote.

I've never been a huge fan of Dream Chaser -- the wings-and-wheels thing doesn't really do it for me -- but I'd be delighted to see more approaches being tried.

Offline Endeavour_01

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #15 on: 11/11/2015 04:23 am »
I also voted SpaceX, Orbital ATK, and SNC. Proponent and deadman did a great job explaining the rationale (although unlike Proponent I am a huge fan of Dream Chaser).

My thoughts: After the recent cargo failures NASA has an incentive to go with two primary providers and a secondary "backup option." SpaceX and Orbital are incumbents and thus have the advantage on availability and cost. It makes sense that the "primaries" will be the companies that present lowest cost and schedule risks, hence SpaceX and Orbital. 

The remaining entrants still have to develop their systems, so they are better suited for the secondary position. If we believe the rumors that Boeing and LM are out but SNC is still in that must mean that SNC's proposal has some type of advantage. It might be cost, downmass capability, or something else that gives SNC staying power. Therefore I believe SNC will get a smaller, but significant, contract.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2015 04:25 am by Endeavour_01 »
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Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #16 on: 11/11/2015 05:08 am »
My guess is 40% chance of SpaceX & Orbital ATK (my vote), 25% chance of SpaceX & SNC, 15% chance of SpaceX and LM, and 20% other. But without seeing the bids or even an informed summary of them this is a shot in the dark.

Offline meberbs

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #17 on: 11/11/2015 05:47 am »
I went with Spacex and SNC in part because Orbital is still using Russian engines for their return to flight, and I believe there is some language in the RFP that included a restriction on Russian engines past a certain date. (Presumably they would need to switch to a different engine again later, maybe the AR-1)

Also, I thought that Boeing being out was official. I had read that NASA didn't say anything publicly, but they told Boeing and Boeing decided to release the info. The Lockheed rumor I believe is still just a rumor though.

Offline collectSPACE

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #18 on: 11/11/2015 03:37 pm »
Also, I thought that Boeing being out was official. I had read that NASA didn't say anything publicly, but they told Boeing and Boeing decided to release the info.

You are correct. Boeing has confirmed they are out of the competition. It is not a rumor.

Offline dror

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #19 on: 11/11/2015 04:03 pm »
I voted spaceX and LM. I believe these two will be the cheapest per kg
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #20 on: 11/11/2015 04:40 pm »
How would Lockheed launch.  Atlas V still uses Russian engines.  Unless they are going Vulcan. 

Offline dror

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #21 on: 11/11/2015 04:54 pm »
How would Lockheed launch.  Atlas V still uses Russian engines.  Unless they are going Vulcan.

There's only a ban on Russian engines for DOD launches.
Atlas V is good to go for Nasa and commercial launches.
« Last Edit: 11/11/2015 04:56 pm by dror »
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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #22 on: 11/12/2015 08:50 pm »
Sierra Nevada has made a statement that it is now only them, Orbital and SpaceX.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #23 on: 11/13/2015 10:51 am »
How would Lockheed launch.  Atlas V still uses Russian engines.  Unless they are going Vulcan.

There's only a ban on Russian engines for DOD launches.
Atlas V is good to go for Nasa and commercial launches.


And CRS-2 starts in 2017: Vulcan won't be ready by then.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #24 on: 11/13/2015 10:55 am »
I picked SpaceX and Orbital, which is not my preference, but seems realistic. They are proven and don't need to engage in expensive or time consuming hardware development. The previous programs they won contract for will have brought down the cost they can bid at compared to anyone else.

My own preference would be either SpaceX+Lockheed or Sierra Nevada + Lockheed.

I really like the Jupiter-Exoliner concept because it can serve as a proving ground for reuse of in space hardware.
I'd say Orbital building a new rocket qualifies as serious development.

I agree that re-engining Antares is a pretty big deal, but Orbital ATK must do that to satisfy its obilgations under CRS-1.  For purposes of CRS-2, that's money already spent.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #25 on: 11/13/2015 11:45 am »
Also, I thought that Boeing being out was official. I had read that NASA didn't say anything publicly, but they told Boeing and Boeing decided to release the info. The Lockheed rumor I believe is still just a rumor though.

You are correct. Boeing has confirmed they are out of the competition. It is not a rumor.

OK, Spaceflight Now quotes a named Boeing employee for confirmation that Boeing is out.  I'll take that as definitive.  In keeping with what I said in opening the poll, I should now eliminate all options including Boeing.  However, having just attempted to do so, I see no way of eliminating optoins without losing all votes cast thus far, so I'll leave Boeing in.

As for Lockheed Martin's elimination, we have Laura Keeney's story in the Denver PostSpaceflight Now says:

The fifth company to publicly disclose its commercial cargo proposal, Lockheed Martin, said it would not comment on its status in a pending procurement. Industry sources have said Lockheed Martin’s resupply concept was ousted from the competition earlier this year, but the company has not addressed the reports.

My gut tells me that LM's elimination is a surer thing than Boeing's, but there's less hard evidence backing it up.
« Last Edit: 11/13/2015 11:51 am by Proponent »

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #26 on: 11/20/2015 10:11 pm »
I voted SpaceX, OrbATK, & SNC. The rationale is as follows:

SpaceX provides up/down mass along with un-pressurized up mass. It is a proven vehicle.

OrbATK provides up mass and disposal. It is also a proven vehicle.

SNC provides up/down mass and disposal. However; the main reason I believe it will be chosen is in addition to the mission requirements, it provides a back-up to OrbATK. 

Although Cygnus is a capable vehicle, the launcher's first stage is being built in a country whose industrial capacity may be stressed. In the event the current first stage becomes unavailable, it could find a ride on Atlas with a probable cost increase. I think this makes OrbATK high risk for CRS-2. 
 
In the event only two providers are chosen, I believe it will be SpaceX and SNC.

Rob


This is pretty much how I see it as well.

~Jon

Offline MarekCyzio

Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #27 on: 01/14/2016 02:49 pm »
My heart goes for SpaceX and SNC, but assuming NASA tries to prove to Congress they are a good shepard of public money, NASA will pick SpaceX and Orbital ATK - low risk, proven (minus some explosions).

Offline fvandrog

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #28 on: 01/14/2016 03:03 pm »
My heart goes for SpaceX and SNC, but assuming NASA tries to prove to Congress they are a good shepard of public money, NASA will pick SpaceX and Orbital ATK - low risk, proven (minus some explosions).

I am rooting for SNC. I am not sure whether they have a good business case, nor do I have a clue about the technical feasibility -- but I do certainly think Dream Chaser is beautiful. I have always been a shuttle fan, it'd be so great to see a successor being successfully launched!

Offline yg1968

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #29 on: 01/14/2016 03:28 pm »
I am predicting that Orbital/ATK, SpaceX and SNC will each win an award. If there is only two companies, I am predicting SpaceX and Orbital/ATK. But I believe that NASA will choose three companies.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2016 03:29 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #30 on: 01/15/2016 02:36 am »
Where do I collect my winnings? :)

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #31 on: 01/15/2016 03:10 am »
Where do I collect my winnings? :)
Your prize was Dream Chaser getting selected.

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #32 on: 01/15/2016 04:42 am »
A pretty good group prediction, with more than a third (35.5%) getting it right!
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Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #33 on: 01/15/2016 04:52 am »
A pretty good group prediction, with more than a third (35.5%) getting it right!
Indeed. I'm pleased as punch to have been among that group... this may be the best news for DC in a long time. If SNC uses this contract wisely to complete airframe and avionics development and delivers reliably, manned flight will be much more likely to happen in due course. And that's good for all.

Fingers crossed that no one appeals this and it moves forward quickly.
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Offline Star One

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Re: POLL: CRS-2 Winners
« Reply #34 on: 01/15/2016 06:39 am »

A pretty good group prediction, with more than a third (35.5%) getting it right!
Indeed. I'm pleased as punch to have been among that group... this may be the best news for DC in a long time. If SNC uses this contract wisely to complete airframe and avionics development and delivers reliably, manned flight will be much more likely to happen in due course. And that's good for all.

Fingers crossed that no one appeals this and it moves forward quickly.

Aren't appeals almost mandatory with these big money contracts, certainly seems the case with big aviation awards.:(

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