Poll

Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?

United States
65 (33.3%)
China
45 (23.1%)
Private
85 (43.6%)

Total Members Voted: 195


Author Topic: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?  (Read 18592 times)

Offline clongton

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #40 on: 12/10/2015 07:32 pm »
Since the pole differentiated out "Private" I chose that. And I do not believe it will be the late 2020's, but the early 20's at the latest. It will be SpaceX. Elon has expressed no interest in going to the moon per se but he does want to get his spacecraft and hardware ready for long duration missions to Mars. Just putting a Dragon with a Bigelow mission module in low earth orbit won't really do that as too much would be left undone. Dragon might be the initial spacecraft for an early proof of concept flight but won't be the spacecraft being tested. I believe SpaceX will do several shake-down flights in lunar orbit of the MCT spacecraft. They may even land once or twice just to prove out their procedures. Whether or not there are any NASA passengers is beside the point. It will be a SpaceX mission crewed by SpaceX astronauts.

There is no way that the MCT will head off to Mars without first being thoroughly tested at the moon.
SpaceX will not go to lunar orbit because it wants to go to the moon - it does not. It will go to lunar orbit because it is a convenient MCT test location/condition for its Mars ambitions.
« Last Edit: 12/10/2015 08:28 pm by clongton »
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Offline hkultala

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #41 on: 12/10/2015 07:37 pm »
Missing option "russia".

They want to go to the moon.

Tough propably USA returns to moon orbit before them, just because soon they will have SLS and Orion without any landers to land anywhere so going around moon is the only place to go with them.
« Last Edit: 12/10/2015 07:39 pm by hkultala »

Offline clongton

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #42 on: 12/10/2015 07:46 pm »
Missing option "russia".

They want to go to the moon.

Tough propably USA returns to moon orbit before them, just because soon they will have SLS and Orion without any landers to land anywhere so going around moon is the only place to go with them.

The Russian Space Agency just had their budget massively axed, and that's a real shame because otherwise they could do it. But no bucks - no buck rogers.
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I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline Khadgars

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #43 on: 12/10/2015 07:52 pm »
I'm quite perplexed by this discussion.

No other space agency or private entity has any specific plan to return to lunar orbit outside of NASA with EM-1 and EM-2 which are firmly on the books.

No other space agency or private entity has plans for cis-lunar exploration or station than NASA.

China has a minuscule presence in LEO. SpaceX has hardly mentioned lunar at all.

NASA is clearly the front runner in return to lunar orbit.
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Offline PerW

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #44 on: 12/10/2015 08:03 pm »
I voted private, but that is probably because I am high on L2 information, and anything seams possible... :-)
Also I miss Russian as a choice (even if I do not think the will be first).

And I find it disturbing that ESA is not serious enough about human spaceflight to be put in the list

Offline Bynaus

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #45 on: 12/10/2015 08:08 pm »
I think (perhaps rather: hope) there is a chance we might see the Falcon Heavy Demo mission sending the "Pad Abort" Dragon 2 on a free-return trajectory around the moon next year (unmanned, of course). Just because they can and that unit is of no particular use anymore (in-flight abort test will use the re-used orbital test Dragon 2). While technically not "lunar orbit", it would still be a first for a commercial company, a stunner if it works and it would clearly show the whole world where SpaceX stands in comparison with its competition (home and abroad). So my guess is: private.
While I appreciate your enthusiasm, even if they used the FH demo mission for something like this, which I personally think they will not, that still doesn't get you to Human return, which is what the poll is about.

Also, the Pad Abort vehicle is absolutely being used for other purposes.

Agreed, it would not be an immediate return of humans to the Moon, but it could set the stage and show what is possible. A manned mission with a similar profile (e.g., commercial, perhaps the long-rumored Space Adventures circumlunar excursion rebooted with SpaceX hardware) could come a few years later, once manned Dragon 2s have flown repeatedly to the ISS and back. That would be still long before 2023, when NASA plans to be in the vicinity of the Moon, or whenever the Chinese feel ready to go.

What is the Pad Abort vehicle used for? As far as I know, the evolution of Crew Dragon (or Dragon 2) has moved beyond that piece of hardware, so I am not sure it can still play a significant role. The only thing I am not sure is whether it actually has a fully functional heat shield.
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Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #46 on: 12/10/2015 08:24 pm »
I think (perhaps rather: hope) there is a chance we might see the Falcon Heavy Demo mission sending the "Pad Abort" Dragon 2 on a free-return trajectory around the moon next year (unmanned, of course). Just because they can and that unit is of no particular use anymore (in-flight abort test will use the re-used orbital test Dragon 2). While technically not "lunar orbit", it would still be a first for a commercial company, a stunner if it works and it would clearly show the whole world where SpaceX stands in comparison with its competition (home and abroad). So my guess is: private.
While I appreciate your enthusiasm, even if they used the FH demo mission for something like this, which I personally think they will not, that still doesn't get you to Human return, which is what the poll is about.

Also, the Pad Abort vehicle is absolutely being used for other purposes.

Agreed, it would not be an immediate return of humans to the Moon, but it could set the stage and show what is possible. A manned mission with a similar profile (e.g., commercial, perhaps the long-rumored Space Adventures circumlunar excursion rebooted with SpaceX hardware) could come a few years later, once manned Dragon 2s have flown repeatedly to the ISS and back. That would be still long before 2023, when NASA plans to be in the vicinity of the Moon, or whenever the Chinese feel ready to go.

What is the Pad Abort vehicle used for? As far as I know, the evolution of Crew Dragon (or Dragon 2) has moved beyond that piece of hardware, so I am not sure it can still play a significant role. The only thing I am not sure is whether it actually has a fully functional heat shield.
In answer to your Pad Abort Vehicle use question:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/10/spacex-dragonfly-arrives-mcgregor-testing/
« Last Edit: 12/10/2015 08:24 pm by rcoppola »
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Offline Bynaus

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #47 on: 12/10/2015 09:24 pm »
Ok, but that is not mutually exclusive: FH Demo will be NET April 2016, plenty of time to do some DragonFly tests...
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #48 on: 12/10/2015 09:49 pm »
Missing option "russia".

They want to go to the moon.

Tough propably USA returns to moon orbit before them, just because soon they will have SLS and Orion without any landers to land anywhere so going around moon is the only place to go with them.

The Russian Space Agency just had their budget massively axed, and that's a real shame because otherwise they could do it. But no bucks - no buck rogers.

Still the missing option I went looking for.. it's odd.

Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #49 on: 12/10/2015 10:14 pm »
Ok, but that is not mutually exclusive: FH Demo will be NET April 2016, plenty of time to do some DragonFly tests...
We're off topic, so I'll end with this. I respectfully suggest, if you haven't already, that you read further on the DragonFly testing program. These tests are critical to their multi-billion dollar D2 CC program. This testing program will be lengthy and exhaustive to prove out and refine propulsive landing profiles/capabilities. That is the first and only priority for this vehicle. And there is no guarantee that it will not be tested to its limits and/or, that it will survive the testing regime. FH will fly in the configuration they will need for AF certification, meaning it will have a fairing, not a Dragon for the initial fights. If you're interested in the most likely scenario for a Dragon variant launching on a FH, I suggest you search on Red Dragon.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #50 on: 12/10/2015 10:33 pm »
I voted for private.  But private entities would likely only be first if the SLS doesn't get funding to become operational, which if it does then it will be a race to see who will be first.  I think China could do it in the 2020's, but I'm not sure when they will want to risk it.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Bynaus

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Offline SpacemanInSPACE

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Re: POLL: Who will return humans to Lunar orbit first?
« Reply #52 on: 01/06/2016 11:24 pm »
Private, it will be SpaceX. There is a potential lunar market. I'd be much more enthusiastic about spending 2 weeks on a journey around the moon then 4 months en route to Mars and I bet there are a lot of people who feel the same. SpaceX will be ready first so they will provide the service.
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