Total Members Voted: 195
Missing option "russia".They want to go to the moon.Tough propably USA returns to moon orbit before them, just because soon they will have SLS and Orion without any landers to land anywhere so going around moon is the only place to go with them.
Quote from: Bynaus on 12/10/2015 05:59 pmI think (perhaps rather: hope) there is a chance we might see the Falcon Heavy Demo mission sending the "Pad Abort" Dragon 2 on a free-return trajectory around the moon next year (unmanned, of course). Just because they can and that unit is of no particular use anymore (in-flight abort test will use the re-used orbital test Dragon 2). While technically not "lunar orbit", it would still be a first for a commercial company, a stunner if it works and it would clearly show the whole world where SpaceX stands in comparison with its competition (home and abroad). So my guess is: private.While I appreciate your enthusiasm, even if they used the FH demo mission for something like this, which I personally think they will not, that still doesn't get you to Human return, which is what the poll is about.Also, the Pad Abort vehicle is absolutely being used for other purposes.
I think (perhaps rather: hope) there is a chance we might see the Falcon Heavy Demo mission sending the "Pad Abort" Dragon 2 on a free-return trajectory around the moon next year (unmanned, of course). Just because they can and that unit is of no particular use anymore (in-flight abort test will use the re-used orbital test Dragon 2). While technically not "lunar orbit", it would still be a first for a commercial company, a stunner if it works and it would clearly show the whole world where SpaceX stands in comparison with its competition (home and abroad). So my guess is: private.
Quote from: rcoppola on 12/10/2015 06:21 pmQuote from: Bynaus on 12/10/2015 05:59 pmI think (perhaps rather: hope) there is a chance we might see the Falcon Heavy Demo mission sending the "Pad Abort" Dragon 2 on a free-return trajectory around the moon next year (unmanned, of course). Just because they can and that unit is of no particular use anymore (in-flight abort test will use the re-used orbital test Dragon 2). While technically not "lunar orbit", it would still be a first for a commercial company, a stunner if it works and it would clearly show the whole world where SpaceX stands in comparison with its competition (home and abroad). So my guess is: private.While I appreciate your enthusiasm, even if they used the FH demo mission for something like this, which I personally think they will not, that still doesn't get you to Human return, which is what the poll is about.Also, the Pad Abort vehicle is absolutely being used for other purposes.Agreed, it would not be an immediate return of humans to the Moon, but it could set the stage and show what is possible. A manned mission with a similar profile (e.g., commercial, perhaps the long-rumored Space Adventures circumlunar excursion rebooted with SpaceX hardware) could come a few years later, once manned Dragon 2s have flown repeatedly to the ISS and back. That would be still long before 2023, when NASA plans to be in the vicinity of the Moon, or whenever the Chinese feel ready to go. What is the Pad Abort vehicle used for? As far as I know, the evolution of Crew Dragon (or Dragon 2) has moved beyond that piece of hardware, so I am not sure it can still play a significant role. The only thing I am not sure is whether it actually has a fully functional heat shield.
Quote from: hkultala on 12/10/2015 07:37 pmMissing option "russia".They want to go to the moon.Tough propably USA returns to moon orbit before them, just because soon they will have SLS and Orion without any landers to land anywhere so going around moon is the only place to go with them.The Russian Space Agency just had their budget massively axed, and that's a real shame because otherwise they could do it. But no bucks - no buck rogers.
Ok, but that is not mutually exclusive: FH Demo will be NET April 2016, plenty of time to do some DragonFly tests...