Author Topic: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision  (Read 114677 times)

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #460 on: 01/21/2015 03:29 AM »
It's tough for me to argue with that decision!

I don't argue with the decision as much as the structure of this program.  Seems to me Sierra Nevada never had a realistic chance, so why did we throw away money on a charade that was destined to lead HL-20 to yet another dead end?

It had a chance if one of the other two had had problems.  Just look at RocketPlane Kistler and COTS.  It's reasonable to hedge one's bets early in a program and have more options, even if you have to narrow later.

The amount SNC got for Dream Chaser was only $222.5 million, out of a total of around $8 billion for all of the commercial crew program (including options for 12 operational flights).  That's about 2.5%.  That's not a terribly high insurance premium to pay on a high-risk development program.
« Last Edit: 01/21/2015 03:30 AM by ChrisWilson68 »

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #461 on: 01/21/2015 03:38 AM »
why did we throw away money on a charade

That's how the charade is played.
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Offline abaddon

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #462 on: 01/21/2015 01:52 PM »
I don't argue with the decision as much as the structure of this program.  Seems to me Sierra Nevada never had a realistic chance, so why did we throw away money on a charade that was destined to lead HL-20 to yet another dead end?

As has been said innumerable times before, if Boeing or SpaceX hadn't executed as well as they did, then Sierra Nevada would definitely have had a chance.  It's easy to look back in hindsight after Boeing and SpaceX got where they did and say it was a waste.  But you're just applying hindsight.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #463 on: 01/21/2015 02:18 PM »
I don't argue with the decision as much as the structure of this program.  Seems to me Sierra Nevada never had a realistic chance, so why did we throw away money on a charade that was destined to lead HL-20 to yet another dead end?

As has been said innumerable times before, if Boeing or SpaceX hadn't executed as well as they did, then Sierra Nevada would definitely have had a chance.  It's easy to look back in hindsight after Boeing and SpaceX got where they did and say it was a waste.  But you're just applying hindsight.
I’m going to repeat myself one final time and put this to rest... The CST-100 should have been flying before wheels stop of STS-135. The CC competition should have been open to new players in the field who have never fielded a spacecraft before, thus jump-starting a new industry sector... This was all bogus...
« Last Edit: 01/21/2015 02:47 PM by Rocket Science »
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Online Lars-J

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #464 on: 01/21/2015 07:41 PM »
I don't argue with the decision as much as the structure of this program.  Seems to me Sierra Nevada never had a realistic chance, so why did we throw away money on a charade that was destined to lead HL-20 to yet another dead end?

As has been said innumerable times before, if Boeing or SpaceX hadn't executed as well as they did, then Sierra Nevada would definitely have had a chance.  It's easy to look back in hindsight after Boeing and SpaceX got where they did and say it was a waste.  But you're just applying hindsight.
I’m going to repeat myself one final time and put this to rest... The CST-100 should have been flying before wheels stop of STS-135. The CC competition should have been open to new players in the field who have never fielded a spacecraft before, thus jump-starting a new industry sector... This was all bogus...

Huh? You are contradicting yourself. You demand that CST-100 should have been flying years ago (basically pre-ordaining Boeing as NASA contractror) yet you say the competition should have been opened to new entrants. (But if Boeing was to win, why?) You can't have it both ways.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #465 on: 01/21/2015 08:46 PM »
I don't argue with the decision as much as the structure of this program.  Seems to me Sierra Nevada never had a realistic chance, so why did we throw away money on a charade that was destined to lead HL-20 to yet another dead end?

As has been said innumerable times before, if Boeing or SpaceX hadn't executed as well as they did, then Sierra Nevada would definitely have had a chance.  It's easy to look back in hindsight after Boeing and SpaceX got where they did and say it was a waste.  But you're just applying hindsight.
I’m going to repeat myself one final time and put this to rest... The CST-100 should have been flying before wheels stop of STS-135. The CC competition should have been open to new players in the field who have never fielded a spacecraft before, thus jump-starting a new industry sector... This was all bogus...

Huh? You are contradicting yourself. You demand that CST-100 should have been flying years ago (basically pre-ordaining Boeing as NASA contractror) yet you say the competition should have been opened to new entrants. (But if Boeing was to win, why?) You can't have it both ways.
It would have given NASA assured access to ISS replacing that Ares-1 nightmare... Any industry incentive to spur new entrants would be for follow on vehicles without such tight time constraints till scheduled end of ISS. Or do you prefer what we got 9B on Ares and money still being sent to Russia for their good graces? Anyway, I’m done with this...
“All engineering experiments generate valuable data, the failures are the ones that yield the most”
Rob

Online Lars-J

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #466 on: 01/22/2015 05:47 AM »
I don't argue with the decision as much as the structure of this program.  Seems to me Sierra Nevada never had a realistic chance, so why did we throw away money on a charade that was destined to lead HL-20 to yet another dead end?

As has been said innumerable times before, if Boeing or SpaceX hadn't executed as well as they did, then Sierra Nevada would definitely have had a chance.  It's easy to look back in hindsight after Boeing and SpaceX got where they did and say it was a waste.  But you're just applying hindsight.
I’m going to repeat myself one final time and put this to rest... The CST-100 should have been flying before wheels stop of STS-135. The CC competition should have been open to new players in the field who have never fielded a spacecraft before, thus jump-starting a new industry sector... This was all bogus...

Huh? You are contradicting yourself. You demand that CST-100 should have been flying years ago (basically pre-ordaining Boeing as NASA contractror) yet you say the competition should have been opened to new entrants. (But if Boeing was to win, why?) You can't have it both ways.
It would have given NASA assured access to ISS replacing that Ares-1 nightmare... Any industry incentive to spur new entrants would be for follow on vehicles without such tight time constraints till scheduled end of ISS. Or do you prefer what we got 9B on Ares and money still being sent to Russia for their good graces? Anyway, I’m done with this...

No, of course I don't prefer Ares. That would be a dark timeline. :) No, I'm just pointing out that NASA already having CST-100 at Shuttle Retirement would give it much less chance of actually funding a commercial crew program at all. If CC currently has a hard time getting funded by Congress, it's chances in such a timeline would be far less.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #467 on: 01/22/2015 10:00 AM »
No, of course I don't prefer Ares. That would be a dark timeline. :) No, I'm just pointing out that NASA already having CST-100 at Shuttle Retirement would give it much less chance of actually funding a commercial crew program at all. If CC currently has a hard time getting funded by Congress, it's chances in such a timeline would be far less.

I completely agree.  If CST-100 had already existed, there wouldn't have been any other commercial crew.

Dragon 2 is the only path that has any realistic shot at seriously reducing the cost of crew access to space for the foreseeable future.  Anything that kills Dragon 2 would be bad for the long-term future of space exploration.  The gap is a small price to pay for a chance of making human access to space cheap.

NASA actually had the right idea in the early 1970s when they chose to develop the shuttle.  The goal was cheap access to space.  It failed in that most important goal, but it was right to go after it.  The biggest mistake NASA has been making ever since has been to give up on that goal.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #468 on: 01/23/2015 03:53 AM »

I’m going to repeat myself one final time and put this to rest... The CST-100 should have been flying before wheels stop of STS-135. The CC competition should have been open to new players in the field who have never fielded a spacecraft before, thus jump-starting a new industry sector... This was all bogus...

Technically Orion on an EELV the Atlas V 552 could have been flying long before the CST-100.
An Orion reentry vehicle has flown even with all the delays caused by Ares-I and nearly being canceled.
If the block I Orion was baselined for a LV with known performance it would have flown much sooner.

But if Orion was not delayed commercial crew could have been technology development and cost reduction program which it should be.
« Last Edit: 01/23/2015 04:09 AM by Patchouli »

Offline woods170

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #469 on: 01/23/2015 09:15 AM »
Folks, this thread is about SNC Dream Chaser, not Orion, nor CST-100. Shall we stick to the subject of this thread please?

Thank you.

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #470 on: 01/28/2015 05:23 PM »
Folks, this thread is about SNC Dream Chaser, not Orion, nor CST-100. Shall we stick to the subject of this thread please?

Thank you.

No problem.

So, what's the latest news from SNC?  Are they still going to try to sell the full scale DreamChaser or go with only the 75% version?

It'd be a shame to see them give up now after all their work, on the full sized bird.  After all, one could augment the other, especially once the Bigelow Stations start coming on line.  (NASA's already discussing their use for ISS v2).
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #471 on: 01/28/2015 06:21 PM »
Folks, this thread is about SNC Dream Chaser, not Orion, nor CST-100. Shall we stick to the subject of this thread please?

Thank you.

No problem.

So, what's the latest news from SNC?  Are they still going to try to sell the full scale DreamChaser or go with only the 75% version?

It'd be a shame to see them give up now after all their work, on the full sized bird.  After all, one could augment the other, especially once the Bigelow Stations start coming on line.  (NASA's already discussing their use for ISS v2).

There's no sign they've found anyone to pay for either 100% or 75% size Dream Chaser.  They definitely won't fund it themselves.  Their only hope right now seems to be CRS2, and that's a very slim hope.  Their CRS2 bid is very likely for the full-sized Dream Chaser riding Atlas V.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #472 on: 01/25/2016 12:56 PM »
Dream Chaser's fighting spirit paid off for CRS-2!! :) So much for the naysayers... ;)
« Last Edit: 01/25/2016 12:59 PM by Rocket Science »
“All engineering experiments generate valuable data, the failures are the ones that yield the most”
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #473 on: 01/25/2016 01:51 PM »
Dream Chaser's fighting spirit paid off for CRS-2!! :) So much for the naysayers... ;)

They said that the protest helped them figure out what was wrong with their CCtCap proposal and correct it for CRS2.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Dream Chaser shows her fight - SNC protest CCtCap decision
« Reply #474 on: 01/25/2016 04:50 PM »
Dream Chaser's fighting spirit paid off for CRS-2!! :) So much for the naysayers... ;)

They said that the protest helped them figure out what was wrong with their CCtCap proposal and correct it for CRS2.
Makes sense... When Boeing was selected I said it was no surprise since of all the competitors they would know the "NASA way" of doing things and precisely how to go about their crew proposal. It's not a knock against Boeing, it's because they have the most experience in dealing with the agency as an long established firm. I'm certain SpaceX has gained valuable experience in the past few years in how to operate/cooperate with NASA...
“All engineering experiments generate valuable data, the failures are the ones that yield the most”
Rob

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