Author Topic: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser  (Read 58276 times)


Offline QuantumG

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #1 on: 08/17/2014 11:11 PM »
Only three years away! (and always will be?)
When someone is wishing for a pony, there's little to be gained by suggesting a unicorn would be ever better.. ya know, unless it's sarcasm.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #2 on: 08/17/2014 11:43 PM »
Hi Chris

Is you link to SNC new propulsion system correct?


Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #3 on: 08/18/2014 01:15 AM »
Only three years away! (and always will be?)

;)

No.  Three years and counting.

Offline clongton

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #4 on: 08/18/2014 01:34 AM »
I actually agree that is a good way forward. It does presuppose however that the non-chosen company wishes to continue. I would hope that they do so choose. If the commercial HSF program grows, all three will be needed. It would be a shame to see one or two fold up because they weren't chosen. They have all come so far, and I know that all three do have the financial where-with-all to continue without NASA funding.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline JasonAW3

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #5 on: 08/18/2014 01:43 AM »
I'm hoping to see Blue Origin go suborbital soon, and I would be pleasantly surprised if the are the first to orbit a manned commercial spacecraft on their own booster.
My God!  It's full of universes!

Offline rcoppola

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #6 on: 08/18/2014 01:52 AM »
I'm hoping to see Blue Origin go suborbital soon, and I would be pleasantly surprised if the are the first to orbit a manned commercial spacecraft on their own booster.
I'll keep my eyes out for those dancing unicorns...
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Offline clongton

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #7 on: 08/18/2014 01:53 AM »
I'm hoping to see Blue Origin go suborbital soon, and I would be pleasantly surprised if the are the first to orbit a manned commercial spacecraft on their own booster.

SpaceX is much further along to that goal than Blue Origin.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline UberNobody

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #8 on: 08/18/2014 02:01 AM »
I love the fact that you use Boeing's capsule as the thumbnail for that article *hint hint* lol.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #9 on: 08/18/2014 06:55 AM »
I actually agree that is a good way forward. It does presuppose however that the non-chosen company wishes to continue. I would hope that they do so choose. If the commercial HSF program grows, all three will be needed. It would be a shame to see one or two fold up because they weren't chosen. They have all come so far, and I know that all three do have the financial where-with-all to continue without NASA funding.
True.

IRL none of these companies will fold if they lose NASA funding for this programme. Wheather they would choose to continue to go to a full build is a different matter. I think it's pretty clear SpaceX would, SNC might and Boeing (given their business plan rating for other business) probably not.

Beyond that things get murky.  :(

It could be argued if you can only fund 1 then that should be Boeing, as they have had the most full awards and are least likely to continue on their own funding.

The real question would be how much progress to their final vehicle has each entrant actually made?

If Boeing were 1st on the scoring that would be fair enough (but since they've flown nothing so far it seems unlikely) but they seem to have run a deeply political programme. Hiring space at the OPF and then saying "Oh if we don't win we walk and anyone we hired goes straight out the door" is basically taking hostages. If you're not sure you can afford the space, why hire it to begin with?

In soccer that's called "Playing the man, not the ball."  :(

I also think the programme has shown the benefits of competition to deliver advanced systems on a tight timescale if suitably funded. Let's keep in mind it's the decisions of congress that have pushed the 1st launch date so far back.

SNC has come from a company with (AFAIK) no experience of building a whole flight vehicle to flight testing and (so far) partial build of the first composite crewed lifting body reusable spacecraft. on 1/2 the awards of the mainstream proposals.

I just like to remind people that for this generation of space engineers that's about as innovative as it's possible to be.  :)

However that late substitution of the Orbitec engine is a bit worrying.  :(  If there's anything the study of engineering programmes teaches it's that late design changes to a well developed design usually cause a lot of trouble unless (like adding the 5th engine in the Saturn V booster stage) allowances were made for them in the original design (by ensuring the load bearing structures have enough margin to accommodate it for example).

Rocket engines are not plug-n-play. It's highly probable the new design will give better Isp than the hybrid design but the hybrid design has racked lots  of test time by now. Lack of test time on a stand is the sort of thing that is likely to make NASA very twitchy. People may feel their behavior is a little excessive on this subject but they are the customer (in this instance).

Personally I'd leave the the Orbitec engine tech for a "Dream Chaser 2.0" but I'll hope SNC are able to allay any concerns NASA has and wish them well.

I hope that NASA can support 2 fully funded spacecraft.

And here is where the US members of nasaspaceflight can help make it happen......

Call the office of your Representative and Senator and ask to speak to the staffer who deals with space matters.

Ask them if they are aware of CCtCap and if not outline what it's about.

Tell them you support it's goals and express your concerns that it needs to be fully funded for at least two winners to ensure crewed access to the ISS for the US (who after all built it) in case of problems with the lead design.

Ask them what their bosses views are on this.

I've refrained from going into details on the approach because that would make it look like an organized pressure group with a script, so if you don't feel you know enough details look them up.

It's your station, your astronauts access to it and your taxes that go to Russia to pay for the (current) tickets.

Does this not seem worth a small investment of your time?
"Solids are a branch of fireworks, not rocketry. :-) :-) ", Henry Spencer 1/28/11  Averse to bold? You must be in marketing."It's all in the sequencing" K. Mattingly.  STS-Keeping most of the stakeholders happy most of the time.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #10 on: 08/18/2014 07:03 AM »
I'll keep my eyes out for those dancing unicorns...
That's an understandable PoV but consider BO have developed a 100 000lb LO2/LH2 engine.

No one does that (especially the LH2 part) just as a pleasant diversion to pass away the afternoons.  :(

Something is in the works, the question is what (and when)?
"Solids are a branch of fireworks, not rocketry. :-) :-) ", Henry Spencer 1/28/11  Averse to bold? You must be in marketing."It's all in the sequencing" K. Mattingly.  STS-Keeping most of the stakeholders happy most of the time.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #11 on: 08/18/2014 07:09 AM »
If the commercial HSF program grows, all three will be needed. It would be a shame to see one or two fold up because they weren't chosen.

I disagree.  Even if the market grows by a huge amount, there will at best be enough of a market to support two carriers.

The more companies there are fighting for the market, the less scale each has, and less scale means higher prices.

Offline Star One

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CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #12 on: 08/18/2014 10:08 AM »
I'll keep my eyes out for those dancing unicorns...
That's an understandable PoV but consider BO have developed a 100 000lb LO2/LH2 engine.

No one does that (especially the LH2 part) just as a pleasant diversion to pass away the afternoons.  :(

Something is in the works, the question is what (and when)?

I've always found it curious that BO have felt the need to be so secretive about things, other than occasional public missives they really don't say much about their progress or otherwise.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2014 10:09 AM by Star One »

Offline clongton

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #13 on: 08/18/2014 12:49 PM »
I love the fact that you use Boeing's capsule as the thumbnail for that article *hint hint* lol.

There are lots of reports floating around here and there about who is in and who is out. Some come from reliable sources and others are from wanna-be's. The bottom line is that nothing is real, until the ink is on the contract. It is unwise to take any one of the so-called expert reports and propagate them as secret facts when everything is actually still up in the air. There has been no official announcement on the competition. Don't forget, at one time EACH of the three companies was reported by experts to be the most likely looser in the competition. I advise extreme caution when "hinting" at who is in and who is out. Wait for the announcement please, then we shall see.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #14 on: 08/18/2014 01:19 PM »
Well said Chuck. And the use of CST-100 as the lead image is because, and you can check this, I've mainly used Dream Chaser and Dragon a lot in previous articles. Just spreading the love :)

And Monty, the link is fine as it was to give air to the spread of articles for DCSS.

Offline yg1968

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #15 on: 08/18/2014 02:28 PM »
Yes. I am skeptical of rumours too. Prior to the CCiCap awards, it was mentioned that ATK was the favourite at one point in time. That obviously didn't pan out. However, as you get closer to the announcement date, the rumours become more and more accurate.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2014 03:22 PM by yg1968 »

Offline john smith 19

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #16 on: 08/18/2014 02:33 PM »
I advise extreme caution when "hinting" at who is in and who is out. Wait for the announcement please, then we shall see.
Wise words.

I think we all have preferences for who we would prefer to be selected but that's a different thing, and a different question.

Time for a poll of who thinks who will be in (and how many slots there will be)?

"Solids are a branch of fireworks, not rocketry. :-) :-) ", Henry Spencer 1/28/11  Averse to bold? You must be in marketing."It's all in the sequencing" K. Mattingly.  STS-Keeping most of the stakeholders happy most of the time.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #17 on: 08/18/2014 02:38 PM »
Great article Chris and the news as well! :) I’ve always wanted a good ROI for the US tax dollars spent on any and all programs, which is why I set up my “Commercial Crew Alternate Universe” thread a while back. I feel we should not call any of the vehicles not chosen “losers” but rather not selected as prime candidates since great efforts have been made by all...

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33940.msg1156576#msg1156576
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Offline rcoppola

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #18 on: 08/18/2014 07:26 PM »
I didn't say Boeing would be interested in that. I agree they wouldn't be. They have stated quite clearly they have no intention of self-fundning this without a clear path to an ROI. Which they don't have without NASA.

However, after reading my post again, I fear I may have jumped the shark, so I'm going to remove it.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2014 07:27 PM by rcoppola »
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: CCtCap: NASA won’t abandon Commercial Crew loser
« Reply #19 on: 08/18/2014 10:56 PM »
It could be argued if you can only fund 1 then that should be Boeing, as they have had the most full awards and are least likely to continue on their own funding.

Not sure how it makes sense to reward the company that has received the most money but is the least committed to creating a critical service.

And wouldn't the flip side of that be that NASA would be able to spend less to create the same level of service with one of the other competitors?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

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