Venture capitalists would be unlikely to finance the setup, as the payoffs would be unknown and the risks enormous.
According to Bloomberg Elon was worth about $12B in March this year, mainly due to his stake in Tesla. Elon can put billions of his own money into SpaceX if he wants to. He's not been shy about committing significant proportions of his personal worth before. Of course he wouldn't have to do this in one go.I do expect him to look for other sources of income, my point is that they're not essential. If push comes to shove, I think Mars colonisation is more important to Elon than his other endeavours.
Even if he had $100B, he could only finance a mission or a small base, not a colony.
Even if he had $100B, he could only finance a mission or a small base, not a colony.What he needs for a colony, beyond working capital (which as you say, he has or can get), is a viable financial model. Otherwise, it is just money down the drain.
Elon seems to think people will pay to go, be it to settle or visit. I can believe that once a small colony is safely established and looks sustainable (may be a few years after first permanent settlers?). I guess the tricky bit is bridging the financial gap between people first arriving at Mars and having an established settlement.
Now a whole bunch of you are going to jump up and down and scream, "They can't do that!" In international relations, we have a saying that "possession is 9/10ths of the law".
Musk has no cash at all, he has millions in debt. see:http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-borrows-150-million-to-buy-tesla-2013-5His net worth is purely based on his share in Tesla, Solar city and Spacex.
How about Mars?!?
I think this convincing will reach critical mass when SpaceX lands the first payload on Mars. Which I hope will be 2016, since both FH and DV2 will be ready by then.
Quote from: meekGee on 07/05/2014 07:54 pmI think this convincing will reach critical mass when SpaceX lands the first payload on Mars. Which I hope will be 2016, since both FH and DV2 will be ready by then.I believe that point will be reached when the launcher lifts a stage with more than 100t payload to LEO, refuels and returns the second stage to earth after dropping the payload in some lunar orbit. At that point it will be very hard to ignore.
Without getting into the exact dates and mission profiles, let's say that there are acts that demonstrate capability (as the one you suggest) and ones that demonstrate intent - and maybe both will be required.
Quote from: meekGee on 07/05/2014 08:27 pmWithout getting into the exact dates and mission profiles, let's say that there are acts that demonstrate capability (as the one you suggest) and ones that demonstrate intent - and maybe both will be required.I would think intent cannot be doubt even today or at the latest when a first stage has done a test hop. But you have a point. Some may not think so.
Elon Musk and Spacex don't have to fund Mars plans on their own. Governments will likely fund most of the initial missions.In order to achieve Elon's goal, all that SpaceX has to do is become the obvious choice for building and operating all of the key hardware.