Long way off?Well either way, SpaceX is going to be massively investing in it as soon as Falcon 9 block 5 is completed, i.e. In a couple months. And once FH and Dragon crew also are flying, it will be pretty much their sole focus (not counting the constellation division) aside from operations. Hundreds, maybe even thousands of people will be working on it by this time next year.
Long way off?Well either way, SpaceX is going to be massively investing in it as soon as Falcon 9 block 5 is completed, i.e. In a few months. And once FH and Dragon crew also are flying, it will be pretty much their sole focus (not counting the constellation division). Hundreds, maybe even thousand of people will be working on it by this time next year.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/25/2017 01:45 pmLong way off?Well either way, SpaceX is going to be massively investing in it as soon as Falcon 9 block 5 is completed, i.e. In a couple months. And once FH and Dragon crew also are flying, it will be pretty much their sole focus (not counting the constellation division) aside from operations. Hundreds, maybe even thousands of people will be working on it by this time next year.Do you think they will down size staff at all once they get the other projects completed to free up cash for the Mars development projects?jb
SpaceX expects their revenue to grow dramatically.
Do you think they will down size staff at all once they get the other projects completed to free up cash for the Mars development projects?jb
Quote from: jabe on 07/25/2017 01:59 pmDo you think they will down size staff at all once they get the other projects completed to free up cash for the Mars development projects?jbPaying that staff like they do now and upkeep of McGregor and Hawthorne is already a very big share of their ITS development cost. They can pay them now, so they will be able to pursue ITS as long as their revenue remains stable or increases.
Quote from: jabe on 07/25/2017 01:59 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 07/25/2017 01:45 pmLong way off?Well either way, SpaceX is going to be massively investing in it as soon as Falcon 9 block 5 is completed, i.e. In a couple months. And once FH and Dragon crew also are flying, it will be pretty much their sole focus (not counting the constellation division) aside from operations. Hundreds, maybe even thousands of people will be working on it by this time next year.Do you think they will down size staff at all once they get the other projects completed to free up cash for the Mars development projects?jbNo. They will need all the staff they can get to make ITS work on the super aggressive timescale they have planned (they still want to use the 2020 window...). Plus they'll be launching 20 to 40 times per year and preparing the megaconstellation, which is also on a very ambitious timescale, and unlike other projects has a hard timeline in that it must be operational within a few years to maintain their prospective spectrum rights. (And they might need ITSy to help launch the fully operational constellation, i.e. With coverage in northern Alaska.)SpaceX expects their revenue to grow dramatically.
Assuming that they can build a flight worthy beast by the end of next year, fly it about 10 or 20 times before 2020, they have a pretty good shot at the 2020 launch window.
I think people need to read "The Mythical Man Month"I don't believe throwing people at ITSy isn't going to speed up development as much as people seem to think. It took over 10 years to get F9 where it is now. It takes a YEAR to make one F9 1st stage. And that from a known set of plans and a production line that has been making them for years.I cannot see them being able to even build a first ITSy in less than 3-4 years, assuming they have a design, which they probably have, but in its early stages. It does depend on Al vs CF, but even so, they are going to need new tooling for this new one. And just that is going to take month and months to make. There is just too much to do to get the timescales down, and simply throwing people at the problem is not going to help that much. People need training, people need time to understand the job. And you REALLY want you people to understand the job.
And the more people there are, the more people you need to get organized to solve unforeseeable problems. Especially when one guys solution is another guy (or gal)'s problem. Some problems and tests have to be done sequentially, and can't be sped up by having more people on the job. The more people you add, the more time they spend waiting for each other.
I think people need to read "The Mythical Man Month"I don't believe throwing people at ITSy isn't going to speed up development as much as people seem to think.
It took over 10 years to get F9 where it is now.
It takes a YEAR to make one F9 1st stage. And that from a known set of plans and a production line that has been making them for years.
I cannot see them being able to even build a first ITSy in less than 3-4 years, assuming they have a design, which they probably have, but in its early stages. It does depend on Al vs CF, but even so, they are going to need new tooling for this new one. And just that is going to take month and months to make.
There is just too much to do to get the timescales down, and simply throwing people at the problem is not going to help that much. People need training, people need time to understand the job. And you REALLY want you people to understand the job.
You forgot accuracy, which I suspect is one of the primary reasons Dragon v2 landing was abandoned. Chaotic aerodynamic forces during reentry alter the post-reentry trajectory and this will vary the landing point quite dramatically (for example, Soyuz landings are often kilometers away from their targeted landing site), and Dragon doesn't have any aerodynamic control features to direct the capsule to a precise landing point like the Falcon 9 does. They could use thruster firings, but my suspicion is that they realized they couldn't reserve enough fuel for both worst-case scenario trajectory corrections and the landing burn.