Author Topic: Who will compete with SpaceX?  (Read 460998 times)

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #20 on: 12/12/2013 05:23 am »
Bah.  I meant to write "too much potential money".  Blue Origin, had they been more successful, could have had a lot more money form Bezos.   I think this was part of the selling line:  "If you do well, you don't have to worry about getting revenue".

Yes, that's exactly the kind of thinking that I'm saying is a total myth.

If Bezos was serious enough to spend serious money he'd be spending serious money. He's not, therefore he isn't.
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Offline savuporo

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #21 on: 12/12/2013 05:23 am »
Ariane, Rocosmos, the Chinese - they will get funding solely on grounds of national interest. But if they can't compete commercially, they'll just become more expensive due to low flight volume.
Ariane has long been working on upping their launch rate, between three different operational vehicles out of Guiana now. They are aiming for 2-3 weeks between launches. They have no lack of payloads for immediate future, and quite a bit of room to streamline their operations further ( IIRC they are still bringing in about 250 russian specialists for every Soyuz launch )

Chinese have a built up a very large industrial base and very big workforce in the aerospace sector, and have a full stable of operational launchers flying pretty often. And they have recently dropped mentions about building "recoverable rockets". Because farmers are getting annoyed with rocket bits raining on them ?

The quote, again:
Quote
Yu Menglun, a rocket scientist and academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told Beijing News that China's Long March rockets are able to maintain a fixed region for the dropping of wreckage.
"Normally we select the scarcely populated areas. The scope of the region is in general 50 to 70 kilometers long and 30 km wide," he said.
Meanwhile, the country is also researching the possibility of recoverable rockets, he said.
"They're like airplanes that could deliver space shuttles into orbit and then come back. There is no wreckage in the process and thus could provide a solution to the problem," he added.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2013 05:27 am by savuporo »
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Offline meekGee

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #22 on: 12/12/2013 05:35 am »
Bah.  I meant to write "too much potential money".  Blue Origin, had they been more successful, could have had a lot more money form Bezos.   I think this was part of the selling line:  "If you do well, you don't have to worry about getting revenue".

Yes, that's exactly the kind of thinking that I'm saying is a total myth.

If Bezos was serious enough to spend serious money he'd be spending serious money. He's not, therefore he isn't.

I don't think so.  He put in enough to hire a top notch team and give them funds for development.  He'd be unwise to pour in more (i.e. for operations) before he sees how its going.   BUT - if they had gotten the vehicle built, they'd have had a much stronger financial foundation than SpaceX did before COTS came up.

Partly as a result of this difference, SpaceX went through trial by fire, through F1 and M1C.  This is when the company was forged. It proved very beneficial for F9 and onwards.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #23 on: 12/12/2013 05:38 am »
I don't think so.  He put in enough to hire a top notch team and give them funds for development.  He'd be unwise to pour in more (i.e. for operations) before he sees how its going.   BUT - if they had gotten the vehicle built, they'd have had a much stronger financial foundation than SpaceX did before COTS came up.

Partly as a result of this difference, SpaceX went through trial by fire, through F1 and M1C.  This is when the company was forged. It proved very beneficial for F9 and onwards.

Basically what you're saying here is that Elon was "unwise" to commit himself fully to his startup where Bezos was wise to starve his startup and waste 10 years.

That makes perfect sense :)
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Offline meekGee

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #24 on: 12/12/2013 05:41 am »
Ariane, Rocosmos, the Chinese - they will get funding solely on grounds of national interest. But if they can't compete commercially, they'll just become more expensive due to low flight volume.
Ariane has long been working on upping their launch rate, between three different operational vehicles out of Guiana now. They are aiming for 2-3 weeks between launches. They have no lack of payloads for immediate future, and quite a bit of room to streamline their operations further ( IIRC they are still bringing in about 250 russian specialists for every Soyuz launch )


I agree 100% that in the short term (3 years?) their business is secure - even in the best case of SpaceX starting to reuse rockets in 2015.   Even fast shifts take longer than that.
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Offline llanitedave

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #25 on: 12/12/2013 05:44 am »
I don't think so.  He put in enough to hire a top notch team and give them funds for development.  He'd be unwise to pour in more (i.e. for operations) before he sees how its going.   BUT - if they had gotten the vehicle built, they'd have had a much stronger financial foundation than SpaceX did before COTS came up.

Partly as a result of this difference, SpaceX went through trial by fire, through F1 and M1C.  This is when the company was forged. It proved very beneficial for F9 and onwards.

Basically what you're saying here is that Elon was "unwise" to commit himself fully to his startup where Bezos was wise to starve his startup and waste 10 years.

That makes perfect sense :)

I'm not reading it that way.  I'm reading it that Musk was not less wise, just more committed.  And took risks that paid off.

Bezos can afford not to take those risks.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #26 on: 12/12/2013 05:47 am »
I'm not reading it that way.  I'm reading it that Musk was not less wise, just more committed.  And took risks that paid off.

Bezos can afford not to take those risks.

I agree.. and I think nothing has changed. Blue Origin will continue to plod along on Bezos beer money. They might fly some customers suborbitally, giving Virgin Galactic and XCOR a run for their money, but by the time they're ready to compete with SpaceX they'll be too late.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #27 on: 12/12/2013 05:50 am »
I don't think so.  He put in enough to hire a top notch team and give them funds for development.  He'd be unwise to pour in more (i.e. for operations) before he sees how its going.   BUT - if they had gotten the vehicle built, they'd have had a much stronger financial foundation than SpaceX did before COTS came up.

Partly as a result of this difference, SpaceX went through trial by fire, through F1 and M1C.  This is when the company was forged. It proved very beneficial for F9 and onwards.

Basically what you're saying here is that Elon was "unwise" to commit himself fully to his startup where Bezos was wise to starve his startup and waste 10 years.

That makes perfect sense :)

From a personal financial point of view?   He risked a very large chunk of his money.  Of course it was "unwise".  Except he knows that what's the point having $100M if you're not doing something meaningful with it.

He also never had the kind of money that it takes to support an operating unprofitable company over time, and so SpaceX had to find revenue.   Bezos does have that kind of money.  But before he'd support BO through the business "valley of death", he'd have to see that they can at least put the tech together.   They might still do so btw.  Maybe it takes 3 reboots.   And if they do, I am sure Bezos will support them with more funds then if they don't.

EDIT - and of course, I don't know how much money Bezos put in BO.  I only estimate it's similar to what Elon and Friends put into SpaceX for F1 development.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2013 05:51 am by meekGee »
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Offline guckyfan

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #28 on: 12/12/2013 05:57 am »

EDIT - and of course, I don't know how much money Bezos put in BO.  I only estimate it's similar to what Elon and Friends put into SpaceX for F1 development.

Wasn't it like 35 Million Dollar a year? That would add up to significantly more than the 100 Million Elon put in. I don't have any idea however, how much money was put in by Elons friends.


Offline QuantumG

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #29 on: 12/12/2013 06:10 am »

EDIT - and of course, I don't know how much money Bezos put in BO.  I only estimate it's similar to what Elon and Friends put into SpaceX for F1 development.

Wasn't it like 35 Million Dollar a year?

No. More like 5 million a year. Less in the start.

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Offline guckyfan

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #30 on: 12/12/2013 06:15 am »
Wasn't it like 35 Million Dollar a year?

No. More like 5 million a year. Less in the start.

Thanks, so I was wrong.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #31 on: 12/12/2013 06:23 am »

EDIT - and of course, I don't know how much money Bezos put in BO.  I only estimate it's similar to what Elon and Friends put into SpaceX for F1 development.

Wasn't it like 35 Million Dollar a year?

No. More like 5 million a year. Less in the start.

So about 50-60M to date?  (It that published or rumored?)

I think SpaceX had 100-200M, over about 5 years before COTS, right? 

So yeah, significant difference.
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #32 on: 12/12/2013 06:31 am »
So about 50-60M to date?  (It that published or rumored?)

Both.. I think it was in a popular mechanics interview, and it's about the only information anyone who has worked there is allowed to tell you.

Their mantra is Gradatim Ferociter. Which is Latin for "death march" ;)
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Offline savuporo

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #33 on: 12/12/2013 06:37 am »
Its widely quoted that by about 2006 Musk had invested about $100M of his own personal fortune into SpaceX.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/05/business/yourmoney/05rocket.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-jurvetson-spacex-elon-musk-2012-9
http://www.mensjournal.com/magazine/elon-musk-s-risky-business-20120803

Quote
Musk thought that it would take $50 million to get his first trip to Mars. He was $200 million in and had "spent all of his money between that and Tesla and he went into personal debt" by 2008

And, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX#Funding
« Last Edit: 12/12/2013 06:43 am by savuporo »
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Offline M129K

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #34 on: 12/12/2013 07:19 am »
Blue Origin is already planning a reusable orbital first stage. They are suppose to start orbital flights in 2018.

You'd think there's be a "second mover advantage", but look at the field.

Blue Origin, founded 3 years before SpaceX, is an example of how too much money and not enough Darwinian pressure results in lack of focus.  Or maybe just lack of a fully-committed visionary and engineer at the head of the stack.  Either way, the most enticing thing about them to date is their secrecy.

LMCO and Boeing can build an F9 equivalent, no problem.  But it will be expensive, and they need to get started ASAP.  Can they get funding?  Will they self-fund the development?

Ariane, Rocosmos, the Chinese - they will get funding solely on grounds of national interest. But if they can't compete commercially, they'll just become more expensive due to low flight volume.

So overall I think it's safe to say though that nobody will catch up with SpaceX in the next 3-5 years.  SpaceX's biggest potential enemy is SpaceX.

And since Elon hasn't stopped with F9R, the question is - can any of the aforementioned catch up with where SpaceX will be in 5 years?

I think SpaceX won't catch up to where the others are now in the next 3-5 years. I feel like you're a little overconfident in their ability to capture the GTO market so fast. It's going to be at least 2 years before FH even starts commercial operations and F9R can't get most current sats to GTO.

Offline savuporo

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #35 on: 12/12/2013 07:24 am »
I think SpaceX won't catch up to where the others are now in the next 3-5 years. I feel like you're a little overconfident in their ability to capture the GTO market so fast. It's going to be at least 2 years before FH even starts commercial operations and F9R can't get most current sats to GTO.
The other forgotten aspect is - reusability in itself is not the holy grail. Flying payloads at high rate, while keeping your fixed costs reasonable and marginal costs low is the holy grail to win in the business. Currently, the team at Korou has a thing or two to teach about high flight rate, and there are probably some Russian old timers that remember when Soyuz was flying once a week in early eighties.
SpaceX will not have saved a cent on the reusability before they re-fly a stage already previously flown and deliver a customer payload with that flight. Its going to take a while. BTW, dont they have a couple of Dragons sitting around waiting to be reused ?
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #36 on: 12/12/2013 07:38 am »
F9R can't get most current sats to GTO.

Not directly to GTO.  But it can get them to LEO.  If F9R really can fly very cheaply, it might close the business case for a SEP tug business between LEO and GEO.  F9R could launch the SEP tugs and could replenish their propellant supplies, in addition to getting the satellites to LEO.

Offline alex_chris

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #37 on: 12/12/2013 07:51 am »
I am using data from the Teal Group http://tealgroup.com/index.php/teal-group-news-briefs/93-an-expanding-customer-base-for-space-payloads

They say there were 69 payloads in 2004 with 55 launches. 60% of the payloads were small (from 100kg to 1,500kg) and 14% were nano-sized or micro-sized (less than 100kg). This means that in 2004, the market that SpaceX competes for included 26% of 69 payloads or 18 payloads. Of those 18 payloads the majority were government funded payloads. The payloads were launched by 23 different rockets, mostly government backed rocket systems.

In 2004, Teal said that the peak forecast payloads was in 2001 with 2,160 payloads for 2001-2010. Actually launched payloads were less than that. Their latest forecast for 2013-2020 is 2,155 payloads. The industry is therefore very stable, but the number of payloads actually flown is less than the ones normally forecast.

Going back to the question, who will compete with SpaceX in the next 5-10 years, we should rephrase it to say, who will compete in the commercial payloads market in the next 5-10 years, which includes US governmental launches, but very limited other governmental launches.

Arianespace will continue to fly its 8-10 flights with Ariane 5, Soyuz and Vega, mostly government payloads or European private companies having government connections and therefore choosing Arianespace.

Chinese governmental flights will continue on Long March. Similarly, Japanese and Russian governmental flights will be launched that way.

The 15-25 private payloads per year with a sufficient size and which are not constrained through government backing or government funding, will likely be split between Soyuz, Long March, Ariane, Boeing and SpaceX. I assume, SpaceX lion's shares of launches will thus still come from the US government/NASA, regardless of reusability of the F9's first stage.


Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #38 on: 12/12/2013 08:09 am »
If the SpaceX South Texas launch facility become operational in about 3 years then I see them grabbing a big chunk of the commercial satcom market. The CCAFS pad is the bottleneck for GTO flights due to constrain Eastern range launch opportunities. So SpaceX needs additional launch capacity to be able to handle more contracts. IMO a new SpaceX commercial launch site anywhere will be a serious challenge to the other launch providers.


A slightly OT question. Can SpaceX expand the South Texas site to handle dual launches? Think would need another vehicle integration building and another launchpad. Idea is to launch within several hours between flights so as to maintain the current planned dozen or so flight days per year at South Texas site. While doubling the number of flights.

Offline M129K

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Re: Who will compete with SpaceX?
« Reply #39 on: 12/12/2013 08:11 am »
F9R can't get most current sats to GTO.

Not directly to GTO.  But it can get them to LEO.  If F9R really can fly very cheaply, it might close the business case for a SEP tug business between LEO and GEO.  F9R could launch the SEP tugs and could replenish their propellant supplies, in addition to getting the satellites to LEO.

No way that's gonna happen in 3-5 years though, as was implied in meekgee's post. Reusability will take time to become econimical, if it becomes economical at all. I don't think the others will be biting in the dust for the coming years. I don't even think SpaceX will become a big-isn player at all for at least three years. Falcon 9 is underpowered for many payloads, Falcon Heavy won't operate commercially for at least two years, and reusability takes time to perfect and commercialise.

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