Author Topic: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis  (Read 318546 times)

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #20 on: 08/15/2013 03:43 PM »
Sucks to be a satellite operator these days, then. No rides available and the the one launcher with capacity and reliability is off limits.
Look at the launch numbers, totals through 2010-2013 with failures
Quote
CZ: 58 (1)
R-7: 57 (2)
Proton : 37 (5)
Ariane 5 : 21 (0)
But CZ is actually three families. And each Ariane 5 launch is equivalent to two other launches. But I can confirm that in the international cubesat market the Chinese know that they are the only ones that actually launch on schedule and with excellent track record. Of course they will charge you for that.

Offline savuporo

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #21 on: 08/16/2013 03:43 AM »
But CZ is actually three families...
Yeah and i would count that as another one of their advantages, as a launch provider they are better positioned to meet customer demand i guess - although all other launchers have multiple active configurations too.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline spectre9

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #22 on: 08/16/2013 01:42 PM »
SpaceX doesn't launch anything non-NASA.

Excellent analysis  :D

The next phase of operations is going to be the best part.

Will they risk a Dragon before they're happy with the v1.1?

We know they have plenty of cores stacked up. They might not have time to sit around feeling happy with themselves if they do have a success. They really need to get a move on so their big CRS cash cow contract isn't held up.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #23 on: 08/16/2013 04:00 PM »
SpaceX doesn't launch anything non-NASA.

???
ATSB?
Cassiope?
I just saw some idiot at the gym put a water bottle in the pringles holder on the treadmill.

Offline spectre9

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #24 on: 08/16/2013 11:54 PM »
SpaceX doesn't launch anything non-NASA.

???
ATSB?
Cassiope?

I was saying it tongue in cheek to mean their performance with non-NASA payloads has been pretty much non-existent. Falcon 1 launched a tiny sat and promptly retired and a secondary on Falcon 9 v1.0 was lost.

Really they have nothing to prove to commercial customers. NASA is a different matter though, their contracts for crew and cargo are beefy and have (so far at least) taken almost all the focus of SpaceX.

Offline fatjohn1408

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #25 on: 09/16/2013 09:29 AM »
So the on site manifest names 41 launches.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2668012061001/elon-musk-trying-to-advance-the-state-of-space-technology
Elon just stated that they actually have 48 launches contracted.

I noticed that the two SARah flights and the Radarsat flight are not added yet. What are the other four?

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #26 on: 09/16/2013 10:30 AM »
Perhaps, one more mission is for Astrobotic :
Quote
Astrobotic Technology Annouces Lunar Mission on SpaceX Falcon 9
PITTSBURGH, PA – February 6, 2011 – Astrobotic Technology Inc. today announced it has signed a contract with SpaceX to launch Astrobotic’s robotic payload to the Moon on a Falcon 9.   The expedition will search for water and deliver payloads, with the robot narrating its adventure while sending 3D video.  The mission could launch as soon as December 2013...
http://astrobotic.net/2011/02/06/astrobotic-technology-announces-lunar-mission-on-spacex-falcon-9/

Since that announce, the launch date was moved to fall-2015 - IIRC, could not find the ref. Also, I never saw Astrobotic contract in SpaceX news, and it was never added to their manifest. But may be it's because of the competition nature of this mission.

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #27 on: 09/16/2013 10:54 AM »
Perhaps, one more mission is for Astrobotic :
Quote
Astrobotic Technology Annouces Lunar Mission on SpaceX Falcon 9
PITTSBURGH, PA – February 6, 2011 – Astrobotic Technology Inc. today announced it has signed a contract with SpaceX to launch Astrobotic’s robotic payload to the Moon on a Falcon 9.   The expedition will search for water and deliver payloads, with the robot narrating its adventure while sending 3D video.  The mission could launch as soon as December 2013...
http://astrobotic.net/2011/02/06/astrobotic-technology-announces-lunar-mission-on-spacex-falcon-9/

Since that announce, the launch date was moved to fall-2015 - IIRC, could not find the ref. Also, I never saw Astrobotic contract in SpaceX news, and it was never added to their manifest. But may be it's because of the competition nature of this mission.

Here's the reference for the 2015 launch on Falcon 9:

http://www.astrobotic.com/2012/05/22/polaris-prototyping-underway-polaris-will-ride-falcon-9-to-the-moon-to-find-water-at-the-poles-in-2015/

There's no indication Astrobotic has anywhere near the funding needed to actually pay for a Falcon 9 ride, though.  Perhaps SpaceX only puts customers on their manifest when SpaceX is satisfied those customers have a good chance of being able to pay (or when they put down a sizeable deposit).

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #28 on: 09/16/2013 11:50 AM »
...
Here's the reference for the 2015 launch on Falcon 9:

http://www.astrobotic.com/2012/05/22/polaris-prototyping-underway-polaris-will-ride-falcon-9-to-the-moon-to-find-water-at-the-poles-in-2015/

There's no indication Astrobotic has anywhere near the funding needed to actually pay for a Falcon 9 ride, though.  Perhaps SpaceX only puts customers on their manifest when SpaceX is satisfied those customers have a good chance of being able to pay (or when they put down a sizeable deposit).

Thanks for the reference.
And I think you are right about the reason why Astrobotic is not on the manifest.

As for the number of contracts:
So the on site manifest names 41 launches.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2668012061001/elon-musk-trying-to-advance-the-state-of-space-technology
Elon just stated that they actually have 48 launches contracted.

...

-- the words in the interview are
Quote
"Well, we actually have about 48 missions under contract now..."

So, it's a "give-or-take" estimate rather than exact number. Perhaps, the rest 4 of these "48" are preliminary contracts which are not yet secured with down-payment.


Offline fatjohn1408

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #29 on: 09/16/2013 12:30 PM »
So, it's a "give-or-take" estimate rather than exact number. Perhaps, the rest 4 of these "48" are preliminary contracts which are not yet secured with down-payment.

Yes and one might be Polaris and another one might be Sentinel from the B612 foundation.
Spacenews reported Falcon 9 for Sentinel in April: http://www.spacenews.com/article/civil-space/34885b612-foundation-puts-a-price-on-asteroid-mission

Also B612 foundation mentions it: http://b612foundation.org/sentinel-mission/

Edit: Thought B612 foundation site did not mention Falcon 9 anymore, which is not true.
« Last Edit: 09/16/2013 12:33 PM by fatjohn1408 »

Offline input~2

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #30 on: 09/16/2013 03:05 PM »
So the on site manifest names 41 launches.

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2668012061001/elon-musk-trying-to-advance-the-state-of-space-technology
Elon just stated that they actually have 48 launches contracted.

I noticed that the two SARah flights and the Radarsat flight are not added yet. What are the other four?
4 orders in total were mentionned by SES in its Sept 2012 announcement. SpaceX onsite manifest mentions only 2.
So the total is now 46 launches.
 As Elon said "about 48 missions under contract of which a quarter are for NASA" (i.e. 12)
46 contracts could well be the total figure as of Sept 12.

Online Comga

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #31 on: 09/18/2013 06:31 PM »
Does anyone have a list of external payloads for the CRS missions?
I am particularly interested in when ESA's ASIM, JPL's RapidScat, and NASA Langley's SAGE-III are scheduled to fly.

(I am not sure if this is the best thread in which to discuss this, or if it needs a separate thread.  Perhaps a pinned thread on the Manifest with SpaceX dates and Salo's dates from the US Launch Schedule listing Primary and Secondary payloads?  Anyone have a suggestion?)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #32 on: 09/18/2013 10:23 PM »
Does anyone have a list of external payloads for the CRS missions?
I am particularly interested in when ESA's ASIM, JPL's RapidScat, and NASA Langley's SAGE-III are scheduled to fly.
...

RapidScat is scheduled for SpX CRS-4:
http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/707197main_Suffredini_ISS_NAC_20121114.pdf
(page 3)
Quote
SpX-3: HDEV, OPAL
SpX-4: RapidScat
SpX-5: CREAM

Offline fatjohn1408

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #33 on: 09/30/2013 03:56 PM »
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20130703/SPACE/307030023

Does this none orbital flight show up on the manifest? I did not find it.

Offline Jason1701

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #34 on: 09/30/2013 05:33 PM »
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20130703/SPACE/307030023

Does this none orbital flight show up on the manifest? I did not find it.

They only list orbital flights on the manifest. Grasshopper tests and Dragon abort tests are not shown.

Offline fatjohn1408

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #35 on: 10/01/2013 10:19 AM »
http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20130703/SPACE/307030023

Does this none orbital flight show up on the manifest? I did not find it.

They only list orbital flights on the manifest. Grasshopper tests and Dragon abort tests are not shown.

My bad somehow I thought they were going to launch on top of a falcon, but it's just the dragon that shoots itself up in the sky.

Online Joffan

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #36 on: 10/01/2013 10:41 AM »

My bad somehow I thought they were going to launch on top of a falcon, but it's just the dragon that shoots itself up in the sky.


Dragon aborting from a Falcon will happen later in 2014 though, when the in-flight abort is tested, probably after a minute's flight or so.
When I say "Jump!", you say "To which orbital inclination?"

Offline Jakusb

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #37 on: 10/18/2013 05:35 PM »
Somehow I got to do something with this strong urge to get a better overview of upcomming SpaceX launches..
Hoepfully I am not the only one and this could be the start of getting a nice overview by together figuring out the most likely launch sequence and estimated dates..

Please note: flightnumbers and dates are very -ish. I made up some dates to just get a feel on how things might look like...

2013:
F9-007  - Nov 12     - SES-8
F9-008  - Dec 12     - Thaicom 6
F9R-1    - Dec 28ish - First flight Grasshopper 2?
2014:
F9-009  - Feb 16ish - CRS-3
F9-010? - Mar 15ish - OrbComm OG2
F9-011? - Mar 31     - Asiasat 6 (Thaicom 7)
F9-012? - Apr 06     - CSR-4
F9-013? - Jun 15ish - Asiasat 8
F9-014? - Jun 30ish - Orbcomm G2?
FH-001? - Jun 30ish - Falcon 9 Heavy Demo (VAFB)
F9-015? - Aug 08     - CSR-5
F9-016? - Nov 15     - DSCOVR
F9-017? - Dec 05     - CSR-6
F9-018? - Dec 15ish - SAOCOM-1A (VAFB)
F9-019? - Dec 15ish - Turkmensat

Somebody have a clue where to put this one?
2014    Space Systems/Loral    Cape Canaveral    Falcon 9

Did I mis any or make some other 'stupid' assumptions?

At some point I guess that SpaceX wants to make a launch a month, but more would be unrealistic for now.
So that fact alone should help structure the launch order and dates to some degree...

Offline Jason1701

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #38 on: 10/18/2013 05:55 PM »
Where did you get June 30 for FH-1? Seems extremely overoptimistic.

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX Launch Manifest Analysis
« Reply #39 on: 10/18/2013 06:04 PM »
Can't see SAOCOM-A before 2014. INVAP will be working on launching ArSat-1 (2014) and ArSat-2 (2015). So, I would take 2014 in the manifest as LV on site in the best case. Probable launch date is 2015.

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