Poll

How many flights do you expect from SpaceX in 2012?

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Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012  (Read 170594 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« on: 01/25/2012 11:34 pm »
Requested poll:

This subject is currently under debate in the SpaceX subforum.  SpaceX has indicated they want to have 4 flights of the Falcon 9 in 2012.  That could be 3 flights with Dragon at the Cape and 1 non-dragon flight from Vandenburg.  How many do you actually expect the company to achieve this year?
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Offline Namechange User

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #1 on: 01/25/2012 11:41 pm »
My concern is simply this.  Hasn't it been "year of the Dragon" for several years now?  They said they were ready to fly in November, clearly that was not the case.

I wish them success, I just wish they would focus more on making the promises already made instead of making more. 
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Offline HIPAR

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #2 on: 01/25/2012 11:48 pm »
I'm thinking 2 launches.

They will get the Dragon off to ISS by spring.  If it works (it probably will) then they can plan another Dragon mission or perhaps a commercial satellite launch for late 2012.

Perhaps three or four launches during 2013.  I'm coming around as a believer.

---  CHAS
« Last Edit: 01/25/2012 11:50 pm by HIPAR »

Offline tigerade

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #3 on: 01/26/2012 12:18 am »
Thanks for creating the poll Chris.

I am thinking that we will have this COTS 2/3 flight, and then one CRS flight in 2012.  Then I think it is possible that we will have that Vandenberg this year.  CRS2 seems like it's going to be pushed into 2013.  So my bet is on 3 flights this year.

Offline pippin

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #4 on: 01/26/2012 12:24 am »
1. Maximum 2.
1st one will be in April/May/June so if they are lucky, they get a second one up, based on their track record I wouldn't bet on it, though.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #5 on: 01/26/2012 01:06 am »
I say three or four as they'll probably get Dragon to ISS this spring plus a second before year's end and will probably get at least one satellite launch in.

Most if the present delays with the second flight of Dragon are issues with the space vehicle not the launch vehicle once those are ironed out the flight rate should improve.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2012 01:09 am by Patchouli »

Offline RocketmanUS

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #6 on: 01/26/2012 01:27 am »
Voted 1

Based on their history and what they have said over the years.

The real question becomes will they really be the first commercial to dock with the ISS. I'm sure Dragon 2/3 will launch sometime this year.
Hopefully we will see at least the Dragon or Cygnus dock this year. If there is a CRS this year I would expect it to be 4Q based on what we have seen so far.

Not being negotive just practical. I would like to see both teams have a CRS this year and at least one F9 satellite launch without Dragon.

Offline HammerD

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #7 on: 01/26/2012 01:33 am »
Requested poll:

This subject is currently under debate in the SpaceX subforum.  SpaceX has indicated they want to have 4 flights of the Falcon 9 in 2012.  That could be 3 flights with Dragon at the Cape and 1 non-dragon flight from Vandenburg.  How many do you actually expect the company to achieve this year?


One in March or April, they will say 2, but it will slip to 2013.  They are an amazing company with much potential, but rockets are a very difficult business and it seems everything moves at a snails pace now - with SpaceX and everyone else. 

Offline robertross

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #8 on: 01/26/2012 02:02 am »
I voted 2. The COTS 2/3 flight from KSC, and the one from Vandenburg.

Offline texas_space

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #9 on: 01/26/2012 02:07 am »
3 since I'm cautiously optimistic. 
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Offline Patchouli

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #10 on: 01/26/2012 02:51 am »

One in March or April, they will say 2, but it will slip to 2013.  They are an amazing company with much potential, but rockets are a very difficult business and it seems everything moves at a snails pace now - with SpaceX and everyone else. 

The biggest decider in Spacex's flight rate this year probably will be how smooth the COTS Demo flight 2 goes.

The hardest part about rocketry is getting a design and it's manufacturing process debugged.
If it launches close to the target date and everything goes smoothly they could very well meet their launch manifest for this year.

They're being extra cautious with this up coming flight as it's the first flight an an all up Dragon and it's going to ISS.
Maybe they should not have combined demo flight 2 and 3 as it can make it appear esp to the general public that they can't do high flight rates even though this may be entirely untrue.

My biggest doubt is whether can they launch F9 heavy this year because that is a new design and will be flying from a new launch site.

« Last Edit: 01/26/2012 02:58 am by Patchouli »

Offline RDoc

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #11 on: 01/26/2012 03:16 am »
I voted 1.

They'll be completely focused on F9H for the rest of the year.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #12 on: 01/26/2012 03:20 am »

One in March or April, they will say 2, but it will slip to 2013.  They are an amazing company with much potential, but rockets are a very difficult business and it seems everything moves at a snails pace now - with SpaceX and everyone else. 

The biggest decider in Spacex's flight rate this year probably will be how smooth the COTS Demo flight 2 goes.

The hardest part about rocketry is getting a design and it's manufacturing process debugged.
If it launches close to the target date and everything goes smoothly they could very well meet their launch manifest for this year.

They're being extra cautious with this up coming flight as it's the first flight an an all up Dragon and it's going to ISS.
Maybe they should not have combined demo flight 2 and 3 as it can make it appear esp to the general public that they can't do high flight rates even though this may be entirely untrue.

My biggest doubt is whether can they launch F9 heavy this year because that is a new design and will be flying from a new launch site.


I voted 3 (okay, 2 is much more realistic than 3 and even 1 could just as well end up happening), but I guarantee Falcon Heavy won't launch this year.
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Offline Jason1701

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #13 on: 01/26/2012 03:21 am »
1.

I doubt they'll launch anything from Vandenberg until 2014.

Offline manboy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #14 on: 01/26/2012 04:19 am »
Two. One in the Spring and the second (CRS 1) in the late Fall/early Winter.


One in March or April, they will say 2, but it will slip to 2013.  They are an amazing company with much potential, but rockets are a very difficult business and it seems everything moves at a snails pace now - with SpaceX and everyone else. 
My biggest doubt is whether can they launch F9 heavy this year because that is a new design and will be flying from a new launch site.
"We are targeting late 2012 to bring Falcon Heavy to Vandenberg for vehicle to pad integration tests and 2013 for liftoff" - SpaceX (August 15, 2011)
« Last Edit: 01/26/2012 09:26 am by manboy »
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Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #15 on: 01/26/2012 05:01 am »
I said 2, and expect COTS-2/3 in April and CRS-1, or COTS-3, in September or October.  It just seems unlikely that they will fit a third Dragon flight in before the year's end, much as I would like to see it.

I agree with Jason that it will be at least 2014 before they launch a Dragon Heavy from Vandenberg.  It don't have any idea if they would launch a F9 from there before the F9H.

It seems a stretch that they would be able to slip a satellite carrying Falcon 9 into the CCAFS schedule.  It just doesn't look like they have the ability to handle multiple F9s in parallel, and until they are successful a couple of times, it is hard to see NASA giving them fixed dates in the schedule, so the CRS flights will sit in the CCAFS building while the schedule floats.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2012 05:02 am by Comga »
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Offline SpacemanInSPACE

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #16 on: 01/26/2012 07:55 am »
I'm one of those people whose foolishly optomistic they will make 4 flights this year however I do think that it will be their Falcon Heavy that sees the delay!
« Last Edit: 01/26/2012 07:56 am by SpacemanInSPACE »
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Offline spectre9

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #17 on: 01/26/2012 08:01 am »
I was thinking 4 because that's what they've been saying but now they'll be lucky to do another one after the COTS demo (if that even goes this year, no firm date doesn't encourage anybody)  :-\

Offline ugordan

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #18 on: 01/26/2012 08:18 am »
I'm not sure what the point of this poll is. At least it's a step away from the previous "let's predict which anomaly they'll have on the next flight" mentality here so they have to be doing at least something right...

I voted 2. That's in case there's not a major snafu with C2/C3. If there is, my guess would be 1 flight.

The VAFB Cassiope flight will at most have hardware on site by end of year, but the pad won't be ready IMHO.

Offline Maciej Olesinski

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX flights in 2012
« Reply #19 on: 01/26/2012 08:22 am »
Voted 2 - my heart wish at least that ;)
Answer is 1 - my mind says that.

Wish them best but we all see how it looks like.
« Last Edit: 01/26/2012 08:24 am by placydo »

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