Author Topic: Master Prediction List  (Read 27759 times)

Offline baldusi

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #40 on: 12/28/2015 05:37 pm »
I predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.

Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.

Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.

~Jon
Oh! Now you have two takes against you ;-). Count me in for no ULA nor Blue (nor Ariane, etc.) upper stage (cryo or semy cryo with pmf>0.88 in expendable mode) in the next five years.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #41 on: 12/28/2015 05:39 pm »
I forgot, but if anyone ever happens to be around here, an impressive Argentine steak will be on me. We do asado like the best.

Offline Oli

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #42 on: 12/28/2015 05:46 pm »
I predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.

Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.

Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.

~Jon

I do not reside in the US so I'm not sure a dinner is practical..(?), but I take the bet anyway :)

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #43 on: 12/28/2015 06:10 pm »
Jon, if he doesn't, I will. Only because ULA has so much on it's plate.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #44 on: 12/28/2015 09:00 pm »
I predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.

Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.

Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.

~Jon

I do not reside in the US so I'm not sure a dinner is practical..(?), but I take the bet anyway :)

We'll work the logistics if we can't find a practical way to do a dinner in person. A gift card to use at a restaurant of your choice (or my choice if I win) would also work. I was just trying to keep it away from being a cash bet.

Sounds like you're taker #3 then.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #45 on: 12/28/2015 09:01 pm »
Jon, if he doesn't, I will. Only because ULA has so much on it's plate.

I'll call you taker #4, and limit it at that. I think I can cover four dinners if I'm wrong.

~Jon

Offline jongoff

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #46 on: 12/28/2015 09:03 pm »
I predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.

Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.

Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.

~Jon
Oh! Now you have two takes against you ;-). Count me in for no ULA nor Blue (nor Ariane, etc.) upper stage (cryo or semy cryo with pmf>0.88 in expendable mode) in the next five years.

Baldusi, sounds good, I'll count you as #2 betting against me on this one. As I mentioned with Oli, if we can't make an in-person dinner work practically, gift cards to a restaurant of your choice (or mine if I win) sounds fine.

~Jon

Offline joek

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #47 on: 12/28/2015 09:13 pm »
I'll call you taker #4, and limit it at that. I think I can cover four dinners if I'm wrong.

I'll take that bet as well Jon.  But how about betting some NSF swag instead of dinner?

Support the site, bound the expense, and maybe Chris can put it in escrow (with a time limit on winners claiming the goods once the outcome is settled) if it does not run afoul of some arcane gambling laws.

Might be a good precedent for future wagers NSF?

Offline Oli

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #48 on: 12/28/2015 09:15 pm »
We'll work the logistics if we can't find a practical way to do a dinner in person. A gift card to use at a restaurant of your choice (or my choice if I win) would also work. I was just trying to keep it away from being a cash bet.

Sounds like you're taker #3 then.

~Jon

Ok. I live in Zurich, which is currently the most expensive city in the world, but I'll pick a modest restaurant ;)

Offline jongoff

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #49 on: 12/28/2015 09:17 pm »
I'll call you taker #4, and limit it at that. I think I can cover four dinners if I'm wrong.

I'll take that bet as well Jon.  But how about betting some NSF swag instead of dinner?

Support the site, bound the expense, and maybe Chris can put it in escrow (with a time limit on winners claiming the goods once the outcome is settled) if it does not run afoul of some arcane gambling laws.

Might be a good precedent for future wagers NSF?

Joek,

I guess I was "betting" dinners because I'm a mormon and technically we're not supposed to gamble, but offering to buy friends dinner if I'm wrong feels like far enough away from gambling to be ok. If you're ok with the dinner stakes, I'll count you as #5, but you'll be the last taker I'll accommodate. I know if I give enough time, every SpaceX fan on the site is going to want to bet against me, and I'm only confident enough to put 5 dinners on the line. :-)

~Jon

Offline J-V

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #50 on: 01/04/2016 07:18 am »
So let's sum this up. Jon is Mr. magnetoshell aerocapture (isn't he?). MAC is an excellent way to lose your orbital speed with little extra mass. MAC uses magnets, and LH would make cooling superconducting magnets quite easy. ULA and BO are using LH in their upper stages. And Jon is saying, that ULA or BO might get their secong stage down in one piece quite soon.

Did I connect the dots correctly? If yes, is there anything you could tell us Jon? ;)

Offline jongoff

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #51 on: 01/04/2016 02:12 pm »
So let's sum this up. Jon is Mr. magnetoshell aerocapture (isn't he?). MAC is an excellent way to lose your orbital speed with little extra mass. MAC uses magnets, and LH would make cooling superconducting magnets quite easy. ULA and BO are using LH in their upper stages. And Jon is saying, that ULA or BO might get their secong stage down in one piece quite soon.

Did I connect the dots correctly? If yes, is there anything you could tell us Jon? ;)

You're thinking in the right general direction to what motivated me to make the bet. I *think* that MAC technology could be adapted to enable upper stage reuse, and I think that ULA and Blue Origin could be ideally positioned to take advantage of the technology (though for slightly different reasons than you suggest). To be clear though, as I stated in my original post on this topic--neither Blue nor ULA are funding work in this area so far, at least to my knowledge. My bet was entirely based on my speculation that I can repitch them on the idea and eventually get at least one of them to bite.

~Jon

Offline J-V

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #52 on: 01/05/2016 06:27 am »
Good luck in selling the MAC concept!

I'm certain that everyone here, including the people who did bet with you, hope that you succeed.

Is IVF's power generation capability one reason why ULA is a good candidate for MAC?

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #53 on: 01/10/2016 06:39 am »
Okay I will make wild predictions:

Reuse works out for first stages and by the early 2020s it lowers launch costs to about 25% of today. But the knock on effect is the death of the "Big Dumb Booster". Launch vehicles will not be designed to lift any more than 50 metric tons to LEO and most of them will be actually closer to ~10mt. 

Satellite manufacturers will shrink down their platforms to fit on these cheaper reusable vehicles rather than fly on an expensive heavy version. F9R will 'steal' payloads from Falcon Heavy, even if that is made reusable. A combination of electric propulsion, new materials and additive manufacturing will enable this miniaturization process.

By the end of the 2020's Americans will have returned to the Surface of the Moon but at a fraction of the cost of Apollo. It will be done with these smaller reusable boosters shuttling up the necessary equipment and propellant on a weekly basis. As the ISS program winds down in 2028, the Moon Base program will ramp up. Many of the modules of this base will be internationally made with South Korea being one of the future partners.

The Chinese will also have landed humans at least once by then and it won't be done with anything bigger than a Long March 5 booster.

Japan will be the first country to do a demo mission of power beaming from space in 2030s. It will be inefficient, expensive and no where near ready for the mainstream..sort of like ITER. By then, Fusion Power will still be 30 years away!





"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline RobbieCape

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #54 on: 06/26/2016 06:15 pm »
I wonder if we had anyone predict SpaceX's booster return successes by now and the MCT annoucement coming this year?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #55 on: 06/27/2016 12:16 am »
I wonder if we had anyone predict SpaceX's booster return successes by now and the MCT annoucement coming this year?
We expected the MCT announcement last year, actually.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline strangequark

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #56 on: 03/29/2017 12:02 am »
I predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. 

My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong.  If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt.  First 15 nay-sayers only.  Must reply by Dec 2012.

Part one of bet criteria is settled in go4mars favor!

Now we wait for the relaunch part.

So, if you're willing to accept a hat or similar non-shirt apparel item, I'm working on lining up something that would be pretty cool. Assuming the next flight is a success that is...

Offline treypeters123

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #57 on: 04/07/2017 01:51 am »
I believe on mars we will put the first people on mars after settled in will build a biosphere. We can then start releasing oxygen into the atmosphere little at a time for many years until the planet gains oxygen and this will become easier when they start growing plant on mars. We might also like to take into consideration creating human incubation systems to raise life from sperm and egg without need of a birth mother. The biospheres will make they crew more comfortable and at home because they will not need to wear there space suits on the inside as it will hold a constant earth like temperature with a unique watering system to produce life from soil patches sent to them in the future.

Offline Nilof

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Re: Master Prediction List
« Reply #58 on: 04/09/2017 02:38 pm »
I think we will end up seeing SpaceX develop a reusable F9 upper stage over the next five years, even though they seemed a bit hesitant earlier. They've nailed down first stage reuse so this seems like the natural next step. Aiming for 24-hour turnaround feels rather pointless if your upper stage is expendable. They did mention that they'd do some low-chance-of-success stuff with the FH upper stage.

Edit: Apparently Elon had tweeted that they were going to do US reuse two days before I wrote this. I guess I was a bit late.  ;)
« Last Edit: 04/10/2017 10:27 pm by Nilof »
For a variable Isp spacecraft running at constant power and constant acceleration, the mass ratio is linear in delta-v.   Δv = ve0(MR-1). Or equivalently: Δv = vef PMF. Also, this is energy-optimal for a fixed delta-v and mass ratio.

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