Quote from: Oli on 12/26/2015 06:01 pmQuote from: jongoff on 12/23/2015 05:29 pmI predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.~Jon
Quote from: jongoff on 12/23/2015 05:29 pmI predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.
I predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.
Quote from: jongoff on 12/26/2015 06:10 pmQuote from: Oli on 12/26/2015 06:01 pmQuote from: jongoff on 12/23/2015 05:29 pmI predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.~JonI do not reside in the US so I'm not sure a dinner is practical..(?), but I take the bet anyway
Jon, if he doesn't, I will. Only because ULA has so much on it's plate.
Quote from: jongoff on 12/26/2015 06:10 pmQuote from: Oli on 12/26/2015 06:01 pmQuote from: jongoff on 12/23/2015 05:29 pmI predict that either ULA or Blue Origin will beat SpaceX to recovering an upper stage intact from orbit, and that they will achieve this feat before January 1st, 2021.Seriously? I'd bet any sum of money against that.Well, the stakes are that whichever side loses buys the other side a nice dinner. So far I have one definite taker on the side betting that I'm wrong. I'd be happy to have you as the second taker if the terms are amenable to you.~JonOh! Now you have two takes against you ;-). Count me in for no ULA nor Blue (nor Ariane, etc.) upper stage (cryo or semy cryo with pmf>0.88 in expendable mode) in the next five years.
I'll call you taker #4, and limit it at that. I think I can cover four dinners if I'm wrong.
We'll work the logistics if we can't find a practical way to do a dinner in person. A gift card to use at a restaurant of your choice (or my choice if I win) would also work. I was just trying to keep it away from being a cash bet.Sounds like you're taker #3 then.~Jon
Quote from: jongoff on 12/28/2015 09:01 pmI'll call you taker #4, and limit it at that. I think I can cover four dinners if I'm wrong.I'll take that bet as well Jon. But how about betting some NSF swag instead of dinner?Support the site, bound the expense, and maybe Chris can put it in escrow (with a time limit on winners claiming the goods once the outcome is settled) if it does not run afoul of some arcane gambling laws.Might be a good precedent for future wagers NSF?
So let's sum this up. Jon is Mr. magnetoshell aerocapture (isn't he?). MAC is an excellent way to lose your orbital speed with little extra mass. MAC uses magnets, and LH would make cooling superconducting magnets quite easy. ULA and BO are using LH in their upper stages. And Jon is saying, that ULA or BO might get their secong stage down in one piece quite soon. Did I connect the dots correctly? If yes, is there anything you could tell us Jon?
I wonder if we had anyone predict SpaceX's booster return successes by now and the MCT annoucement coming this year?
Quote from: go4mars on 08/25/2011 03:35 pmI predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong. If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt. First 15 nay-sayers only. Must reply by Dec 2012.Part one of bet criteria is settled in go4mars favor!Now we wait for the relaunch part.
I predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong. If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt. First 15 nay-sayers only. Must reply by Dec 2012.