Author Topic: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site  (Read 232982 times)

Offline alexw

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #60 on: 10/12/2010 07:49 PM »
What do you mean by statements like, "I would say that a purpose of the OMB report was, not surprisingly, to get an increase in NASA's budget." Are you mixing up OMB and the Augustine Cmte?
  -Alex

Offline TheFallen

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #61 on: 10/12/2010 07:52 PM »
The OMB wants to increase NASA's budget?  AS IF...

It's 'not surprising' if OMB allows NASA's funding to decrease to 2008 levels as some congressmen proposed
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 07:58 PM by TheFallen »

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #62 on: 10/14/2010 01:23 AM »
From Alex: "What do you mean by statements like, 'I would say that a purpose of the OMB report was, not surprisingly, to get an increase in NASA's budget.'"

I know that I use a word, or possibly two words more than Jim uses in a typical post.  The issues around this site, in my mind, are not trivial, nor can they be accurately synthesized in a soundbite.  Yet I try to be as succint as I can, even if it includes lame jokes, and explanations of my rationale.  Back to yer question:

Mr. Hale suggested that the A-Comm was "snookered" by OMB.  I ran with that analysis, and suggested that OMB was in turn, "snookered" by "the political direction it was given".  I went on to suggest that a purpose of the report, not the purpose, was to increase NASA's budget.  It would not be a surprise to me that other people besides me would want NASA's budget to increase.  In principle, that is exactly what should be happening.

My understanding of OMB's official purpose is that the agency takes the financial data it is given, and analyzes it thoroughly in order to assure Congress that the financial data is accurately portrayed.  Many of the entities, but not all, feed OMB with "cooked" data, but the worker bees at OMB are pretty good, I understand, at ferreting out these cooking errors, which range from major to minor.  Sometimes OMB can compare prices on the open market, because the budget items are available from a large number of purveyors.  In the case of the budgetary numbers that pertain to the A-Comm, it cannot be said that there are a large number of HSF purveyors.

OMB must use a different process to properly vet the numbers that it was provided.  I don't know what that process is, but I am sure that they cannot go out and solicit bids for verification purposes. Mr. Hale opined that "the financial estimates made for the committee are highly suspect".  And they are, first, for the simple reason that there is absolutely no way to get an independent verification about the estimates.  If LockMart says that an Orion capsule costs a buck thirty-nine, who is to say that the capsule should cost under a buck?*

And second?  That would be a different post.

The short answer?  GIGO.  There is nothing for the public but trust in those volumes of financial data.  OMB probably did the best they could with the informational menu they were given.  Now that S-3729 has been signed, the very next battle is mission prioritization.

*Mod note:  I'm talking about capsules, not beer nuts.  Lurker note: Inside joke.  Lame rating: Pretty.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Space Pete

Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #63 on: 10/16/2010 06:31 PM »
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #64 on: 10/18/2010 01:28 AM »
"Perspective", huh?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Wayne Hale

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #65 on: 10/18/2010 01:30 AM »
Did you read it John?


Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #66 on: 10/18/2010 04:40 AM »
     {pain}

     Just when I was kinda-sorta-starting to believe (against most logic) the relentless charges that the Augustine Commission was too pessimistic, that the hardware/budget/timeline picture is better than it looks ... Wayne Hale goes and pours water on those hopes.
 
      Thank you very, very much for your candor.
     -Alex

That's not how I read it.. I'm honestly not sure what to make of Wayne's Blog.

Does he feel like a lot of effort was wasted on options that could never fit in the budget and that the commission should have spent more time coming up with, and making sure they had the numbers right on options that could fit in the budget???

If I may be so bold, he may be tired of the second guessing by everyone. 

He may be tired of the constant change in direction. 

He may be tired of the promise of one thing, only to be shot down in reality because those in power do not deliver. 

He may be likely tired of "doing more with less"

He may be tired of essentially being told to explore the universe for less than 19 billion a year but at the same time having to fund everything else on NASA's plate.

He may be tired of not being able to leave LEO in 40 years but hearing that "Mars is the ultimate goal" for the duration of some of his co-workers lives yet never seeing any real progress. 

Agreed. The post was very interesting, especially the behind the scenes insight.
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Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #67 on: 10/18/2010 12:59 PM »
Wayne:

Yep. I did read it, and found it to be quite along the lines of my thinking as well.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Gene DiGennaro

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #68 on: 10/18/2010 09:44 PM »
Funny, around my lab at work, there are lots of guys complaining about this or that. Every now and then I chime in say something like "It could be worse, it could be September 1939." Usually shuts 'em right up.

Offline HappyMartian

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #69 on: 10/19/2010 04:57 AM »
Funny, around my lab at work, there are lots of guys complaining about this or that. Every now and then I chime in say something like "It could be worse, it could be September 1939." Usually shuts 'em right up.

You know what to say and Wayne Hale knows how to write!

Cheers!
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Offline Space Pete

Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #70 on: 11/14/2010 03:33 PM »
A very interesting new post from Mr. Hale - "The coming train wreck for Commercial Human Spaceflight".

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2010/11/14/the-coming-train-wreck-for-commercial-human-spaceflight
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Offline Namechange User

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #71 on: 11/14/2010 03:44 PM »
A very interesting new post from Mr. Hale - "The coming train wreck for Commercial Human Spaceflight".

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2010/11/14/the-coming-train-wreck-for-commercial-human-spaceflight

The room stands, cheers and says "Bravo!" to Wayne!

Here's hoping this gets wide circulation and has a positive impact!
Enjoying viewing the forum a little better now by filtering certain users.

Offline robertross

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #72 on: 11/14/2010 03:49 PM »
A very interesting new post from Mr. Hale - "The coming train wreck for Commercial Human Spaceflight".

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2010/11/14/the-coming-train-wreck-for-commercial-human-spaceflight

The room stands, cheers and says "Bravo!" to Wayne!

Here's hoping this gets wide circulation and has a positive impact!

I hope so too. Very disturbing to know NASA is making things more difficult than they probably should.
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Offline Namechange User

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #73 on: 11/14/2010 03:58 PM »
A very interesting new post from Mr. Hale - "The coming train wreck for Commercial Human Spaceflight".

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2010/11/14/the-coming-train-wreck-for-commercial-human-spaceflight

The room stands, cheers and says "Bravo!" to Wayne!

Here's hoping this gets wide circulation and has a positive impact!

I hope so too. Very disturbing to know NASA is making things more difficult than they probably should.

Wayne said it too, it is not intentional.  It's a form of requirements creep where various factions insert something they believe to be important and absolute.

Add all these small pieces together and you get a massive document that drives cost and schedule.  It's a counterpart to the traditional requirements creep process that is responsible for a lot of projects going belly-up within NASA and the DOD. 
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #74 on: 11/14/2010 04:02 PM »
I hope so too. Very disturbing to know NASA is making things more difficult than they probably should.

Not at all unexpected IMO. A lot of bureaucrats are scrambling to justify their existence at this time. What better way than by producing requirements documents and, hopefully, parlaying that to a permanent position reviewing compliance?
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #75 on: 11/14/2010 04:11 PM »
I hope so too. Very disturbing to know NASA is making things more difficult than they probably should.

Not at all unexpected IMO. A lot of bureaucrats are scrambling to justify their existence at this time. What better way than by producing requirements documents and, hopefully, parlaying that to a permanent position reviewing compliance?

I think you are implying a little too sinister intent. 

Government employees really do not need to "justify their existance".  Look at what is happening within the space community with all the layoffs and uncertain future.  At this moment, and further enforced by the Authorization Act of 2010, government employees do not have to be concerned with not having a job. 
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #76 on: 11/14/2010 04:21 PM »
Not at all unexpected IMO. A lot of bureaucrats are scrambling to justify their existence at this time. What better way than by producing requirements documents and, hopefully, parlaying that to a permanent position reviewing compliance?

I think you are implying a little too sinister intent. 

Government employees really do not need to "justify their existance".  Look at what is happening within the space community with all the layoffs and uncertain future.  At this moment, and further enforced by the Authorization Act of 2010, government employees do not have to be concerned with not having a job. 

As a former government employee (DOD and Interior) I've seen this kind of behavior first hand. (I've seen it in the commercial sector too, of course.). It isn't "sinister" it is the natural environment of bureaucrats.
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

Offline Namechange User

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #77 on: 11/14/2010 04:28 PM »
Not at all unexpected IMO. A lot of bureaucrats are scrambling to justify their existence at this time. What better way than by producing requirements documents and, hopefully, parlaying that to a permanent position reviewing compliance?

I think you are implying a little too sinister intent. 

Government employees really do not need to "justify their existance".  Look at what is happening within the space community with all the layoffs and uncertain future.  At this moment, and further enforced by the Authorization Act of 2010, government employees do not have to be concerned with not having a job. 

As a former government employee (DOD and Interior) I've seen this kind of behavior first hand. (I've seen it in the commercial sector too, of course.). It isn't "sinister" it is the natural environment of bureaucrats.

That's fair and maybe the motives of some, after all who's to say.  But implying that is the general motive and the driving force is all I was getting at. 

Given they are government employees, securing their jobs probably is not at the forefront of their minds.  Unless congress takes some currently unexpected action, they *will* have a job. 
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Offline robertross

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #78 on: 11/14/2010 04:28 PM »
A very interesting new post from Mr. Hale - "The coming train wreck for Commercial Human Spaceflight".

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2010/11/14/the-coming-train-wreck-for-commercial-human-spaceflight

The room stands, cheers and says "Bravo!" to Wayne!

Here's hoping this gets wide circulation and has a positive impact!

I hope so too. Very disturbing to know NASA is making things more difficult than they probably should.

Wayne said it too, it is not intentional.  It's a form of requirements creep where various factions insert something they believe to be important and absolute.

Add all these small pieces together and you get a massive document that drives cost and schedule.  It's a counterpart to the traditional requirements creep process that is responsible for a lot of projects going belly-up within NASA and the DOD. 

Yes, but again, by knowing this requirements creep can happen, there is the opportunity to descope the whole thing and make it more of a broad brushstroke, rather than a scalpel.

Would it solve the problem? I don't know. But Wayne is defintely correct that a train wreck might be an inevitable outcome.  Thinking SpaceX here and the recent changes they had to make...seemed rather abrupt, and possibly in relation to this new document.
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Offline Norm Hartnett

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #79 on: 11/14/2010 04:37 PM »
As a former government employee (DOD and Interior) I've seen this kind of behavior first hand. (I've seen it in the commercial sector too, of course.). It isn't "sinister" it is the natural environment of bureaucrats.

That's fair and maybe the motives of some, after all who's to say.  But implying that is the general motive and the driving force is all I was getting at. 

Given they are government employees, securing their jobs probably is not at the forefront of their minds.  Unless congress takes some currently unexpected action, they *will* have a job. 

That's fair also and I did not mean to impugn all. In any case the question of cause or motivation is probably off topic. More to the point is the question of can this 'requirements creep' be nipped in the bud and who will do the nipping.
“You can’t take a traditional approach and expect anything but the traditional results, which has been broken budgets and not fielding any flight hardware.” Mike Gold - Apollo, STS, CxP; those that don't learn from history are condemned to repeat it: SLS.

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